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Author Topic: Latest Odds  (Read 1059 times)

Thin Lizzy

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Latest Odds
« on: March 03, 2024, 02:14:26 PM »
I’ll try to keep this current going forward until the election:

IMO, the best bet even from a value standpoint is Trump at about even money. Michelle is the sucker play as that 7 to 1 is tempting.

How bad is Kamala to be 20-1?😂
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2024, 06:09:36 PM »
Both Biden and Trump’s odds have gone down; Biden because looks like she’s not in the mix anymore, and Trump because Haley finally dropped out.


https://www.oddstrader.com/betting/analysis/us-election-odds/
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Irongrip400

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2024, 06:32:00 PM »
You can’t go off any of this crap. Hilary had a 96% chance of winning and she got smoked.
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LurkerNoMore

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2024, 07:12:21 PM »
I think a poll with 4 candidates that were not even running is very accurate.
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AbrahamG

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2024, 07:51:32 PM »
Quote from: Thin Lizzy on March 03, 2024, 02:14:26 PM
I’ll try to keep this current going forward until the election:

IMO, the best bet even from a value standpoint is Trump at about even money. Michelle is the sucker play as that 7 to 1 is tempting.

How bad is Kamala to be 20-1?😂

Great thread Tin Hat.  You should start a lot more. 
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2024, 09:20:33 AM »
Quote from: AbrahamG on March 07, 2024, 07:51:32 PM
Great thread Tin Hat.  You should start a lot more.

Just keep playing to the two people on the board who still buy into the Covid scam, and keep wearing that mask. Two are better than one.
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2024, 09:22:31 AM »
Quote from: Irongrip400 on March 07, 2024, 06:32:00 PM
You can’t go off any of this crap. Hilary had a 96% chance of winning and she got smoked.

Favorites losing Presidential elections are rare exceptions. Hillary was one of them.
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Grape Ape

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2024, 09:32:56 AM »
I saw this on DK.

Only interesting thing to me would be to take the longshot on RFK or (puke) Newsom if you want to believe neither Trump nor Biden will run.
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2024, 09:47:38 AM »
Quote from: Grape Ape on March 08, 2024, 09:32:56 AM
I saw this on DK.

Only interesting thing to me would be to take the longshot on RFK or (puke) Newsom if you want to believe neither Trump nor Biden will run.
Or that they will croak before the election.
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Grape Ape

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2024, 12:58:27 PM »
Quote from: Thin Lizzy on March 08, 2024, 09:47:38 AM
Or that they will croak before the election.

I would count that as "not running".
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Agnostic007

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2024, 03:02:19 PM »
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2024, 03:31:24 PM »

Nate Silver Gives Dire Prediction About Joe Biden's Chances

https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-dire-prediction-joe-biden-chances-1845162
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Agnostic007

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2024, 10:10:51 PM »
Quote from: Thin Lizzy on March 08, 2024, 03:31:24 PM
Nate Silver Gives Dire Prediction About Joe Biden's Chances

https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-dire-prediction-joe-biden-chances-1845162

Don't know Nate.. I do know 538 is well respected.. and it appears to be a coin toss. Either way... America Loses.
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2024, 03:09:40 AM »
Quote from: Agnostic007 on March 08, 2024, 10:10:51 PM
Don't know Nate.. I do know 538 is well respected.. and it appears to be a coin toss. Either way... America Loses.


He is the founder of 538

From Wiki:

“Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023.[2]”
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Grape Ape

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2024, 07:29:11 AM »
He was one of the most known advanced metrics guys in baseball when I started following that stuff.
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deadz

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2024, 12:08:17 PM »
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Agnostic007

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #16 on: March 09, 2024, 01:10:23 PM »
Quote from: Thin Lizzy on March 09, 2024, 03:09:40 AM

He is the founder of 538

From Wiki:

“Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023.[2]”

Did not know that. I read the article. People are concerned about Bidens age. He shouldn't be the nominee, but he is. At this point the national polling shows a toss up with the margin of error. I think it will be close and can go either way depending on which side is more motivated... Republicans voting for their favorite candidate, or Democrats voting against Trump. They darn sure aren't voting out of love for Biden.   
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #17 on: March 09, 2024, 01:36:27 PM »
Quote from: Agnostic007 on March 09, 2024, 01:10:23 PM
Did not know that. I read the article. People are concerned about Bidens age. He shouldn't be the nominee, but he is. At this point the national polling shows a toss up with the margin of error. I think it will be close and can go either way depending on which side is more motivated... Republicans voting for their favorite candidate, or Democrats voting against Trump. They darn sure aren't voting out of love for Biden.

If you feel this way, you should bet Biden as he is a big overlay at 2-1.

But before you do that, look at the swing state polls and you’ll see why Biden is a 2-1 Underdog.
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #18 on: March 09, 2024, 03:34:56 PM »
How bad Kamala? Michelle is essentially a no go and Harris is still 25-1.

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Agnostic007

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #19 on: March 09, 2024, 07:02:20 PM »
Quote from: Thin Lizzy on March 09, 2024, 01:36:27 PM
If you feel this way, you should bet Biden as he is a big overlay at 2-1.

But before you do that, look at the swing state polls and you’ll see why Biden is a 2-1 Underdog.

I might look into that... it's a gamble but if it's 2-1 that seems like pretty good odds considering the data
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illuminati

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2024, 08:24:49 PM »
Quote from: Irongrip400 on March 07, 2024, 06:32:00 PM
You can’t go off any of this crap. Hilary had a 96% chance of winning and she got smoked.


Thats because she's an evil fucking bitch
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LurkerNoMore

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #21 on: March 10, 2024, 06:02:03 PM »
Quote from: Thin Lizzy on March 09, 2024, 03:34:56 PM
How bad Kamala? Michelle is essentially a no go and Harris is still 25-1.

They are not even running.   ::)
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Gym Rat

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2024, 06:19:27 AM »
There will always be civil unrest now forever, with civil peace to never return.
When Trump won in 2016 the left flipped their lid, and started the internal conflict.
Ghey Barry was basically left alone for 8 years compared to how the left flipped out in 2016.
Agnostic said "no matter who wins, the country loses (or similar). It will be like that forever now.
No more simple disagreements, where one party maybe you liked some of their ideas, and then liked some from the other party.
Today, no one cares about anything except for their "side" and dont know much about what's really going on.
Looney left is trying to go full commie/socialist which never worked anywhere.. Ever...

Not too bright...
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IroNat

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2024, 07:58:28 AM »
An old guy will win.
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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Latest Odds
« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2024, 10:14:03 AM »
Quote from: LurkerNoMore on March 10, 2024, 06:02:03 PM
They are not even running.   ::)

There’s a lot of talk of Biden dropping out. If so, the VP would the logical choice. If you had someone remotely competent the odds would be much lower.
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