Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 768359 times)

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10250 on: January 16, 2024, 03:03:37 PM »
Grayscale just loaded 9,000 BTC to sell.

I know people thought it was the Holy Grail but that’s a price of 48k….. The ETF then Launches……Hundreds of million pour in…….Price drops to 41k……. Grayscale then organise to dump 0.4B…..

To top it off we now have hundreds of millions in an ETF which can be shorted :D

Yet nobody believes me about price suppression.

Price in the short term is irrelevant. What matters is volume  That was the main concern monied people had about BTC. Was the volume on exchanges real or faked? (see below) Volume will inevitably equal price increase.

As for shorting any institution or fund doing it with size must hate money as they'd get blown up to smithereens by steady buy pressure and/or bitcoin whales. Macro and black swan type event shorting would obviously be different.

ETFs will not bring price suppression, they'll bring a suppression to volatile price swings. If I didn't  think I could finesse Alts for a few more years I'd go full maxi, hold and never sell.

Quote from a senior bloomberg ETF analyst about the btc etf volumes

"Let me put into context how insane $10b in volume is in first 3 days. There were 500 ETFs launched in 2023. Today, they did a COMBINDED $450m in volume. The best one did $45m. And many have had months to get going. $IBIT alone is seeing more activity than the entire '23 Freshman Class"

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10251 on: January 16, 2024, 03:56:29 PM »
It matters because the words  ‘short term’ is a forever moving range based on the current day looking forward.At some point the ‘short term’ occurs during a milestone moment where the outcome is incredibly meaningful.

Like at tops for example. Where ‘short term’ doesn’t matter as it dips but what if it keeps dipping? Well the ‘short term’ would be incredibly important wouldn’t It as it would have pointed out a change in behaviour.

The ETF is a milestone event building for over a decade and the outcome was the new overlords sent it down. I’m Not saying we won’t go up higher after this but I’m saying if the new overlords send this from 48k down to low 30s that suggests to me they won’t allow it to go all that much higher because they want to send it lower.

Besides, Can you imagine the carnage if they let BTC get to 500k and then banned self custody and Tether? Horrific!

Anyhoo, what is the price target you are looking for? Clearly I am the lowest and most bearish in here by a mile lol. I’ll be wrong so it’ll be higher than I say so if everyone looks good at my price target then that’s awesome 👏



Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10252 on: January 16, 2024, 05:31:44 PM »
Short term with an ETF doesn't matter because it's not a one off event that impacts the price and then it fades away into irrelevance. ETFs and the volume they'll bring lead to sustained buy pressure that is impactful for years. It's a stairs up only situation rather than an elevator up snd stairs down.

Don't think Blackrock and co are in control of the price yet, could take years but they'll probably get there eventually. I think their main goal though will be to control narrative.

I'm at 64K/65k within the next few months even if we go down into the 30s first.

As far as GBTC. The sellers today could be out of crypto forever or ibit buyers tomorrows. No one really knows. I do know some bito traders are wrapping up their crypto 2023 funds and are pushing their investors to go even bigger in 2024. They are salivating at the spot and leveraged ETFs.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10253 on: January 16, 2024, 10:16:08 PM »
Grayscale just loaded 9,000 BTC to sell.

I know people thought the ETF launch was the Holy Grail but that’s a price of 48k….. The ETF then Launches……Hundreds of million pour in…….Price drops to 41k……. Grayscale then organise to dump 0.4B…..

To top it off we now have hundreds of millions in an ETF which can be shorted :D

Yet nobody believes me about price suppression.

Much of the GS redemptions is money that was locked up for a long time with some investors taking the chance to cash out. Others don't want to pay 1.5% management fee and so are moving to other funds.

You need to look not just at outflows from GS, but also the inflows in the other direction into other funds and also into BTC directly. Make no doubt about it - the ETF is a MASSIVE development for Bitcoin. The reshuffeling between GS to other funds will soon settle. And then we just have steady HODL inflows, provide super solid support level for constant upwards momentum.

ETF's can also be leveraged long, not just shorted, but either way, shorts/longs are just noise along the overall upward trend which will continue either way.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10254 on: January 17, 2024, 02:12:20 AM »

I appreciate the responses.

Apologies if my recent energetic posts appear rude, my poor communication skills at work.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10255 on: January 17, 2024, 12:43:01 PM »
I appreciate the responses.

Apologies if my recent energetic posts appear rude, my poor communication skills at work.

All Australians are assholes, we understand,  no need to explain your self

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10256 on: January 17, 2024, 02:29:04 PM »
All Australians are assholes, we understand,  no need to explain your self

Lol, Mayday  is not an asshole, just a high functioning autistit with slight adhd, that's why he works in quant analysis.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10257 on: January 17, 2024, 04:30:25 PM »

GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10258 on: January 18, 2024, 04:46:16 AM »
Any thoughts on which ETF is best? IBIT looks to have low fees and good volume.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10259 on: January 18, 2024, 08:50:46 AM »
Any thoughts on which ETF is best? IBIT looks to have low fees and good volume.

I would probably go with IBIT (indeed I already have).

I think Bitwise is also one I would support. Philosophically they are Bitcoin OG's from the outset, and they are committed to the long term. And whilst not a fan of ARK, I think the ARK BTC ETF is also good. So your top 4 really are Blackrock, Fidelity, Ark, and Bitwise.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10260 on: January 18, 2024, 08:52:24 AM »
I appreciate the responses.

Apologies if my recent energetic posts appear rude, my poor communication skills at work.

All good MayDay, and as for the comments about Australians, some of my best friends are Ozzies. They are great people once you get to know them and Oz is a great place to visit!

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10261 on: January 18, 2024, 03:12:19 PM »
The big boys are going to short BTC into the grave. Look at Gold, look at Silver. The prices have been heavily suppressed for decades. Same thing will happen to BTC and they will drive retail out. It will just become another commodity. The decentralization and the circumvention of the corrupt monetary system.... what BTC was designed to do..... have been destroyed in one fell swoop. I for one am impressed. They will now be trading paper BTC like paper silver and the price will be whatever Blackrock wants the price to be.

Those of us that trade the markets know that price discovery and reality can be and are often wildly divergent. And the movements are controlled by the big money. Now with futures trading made legal in the USA ... wow... lots of money to be made from the controlled "volatility".

I'm long MONERO ... its the only one left that does what BTC was designed to do and when people start realizing that, the value will explode.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10262 on: January 19, 2024, 09:57:03 PM »
US govt likely holds millions of confiscated BTC. I never hear any talk of this.


"...the revelation in late 2013 that Bitcoin was, in fact, the opposite of untraceable—that its blockchain would actually allow researchers, tech companies, and law enforcement to trace and identify users with even more transparency than the existing financial system."


https://www.wired.com/story/27-year-old-codebreaker-busted-myth-bitcoins-anonymity/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10263 on: January 19, 2024, 10:03:35 PM »
The big boys are going to short BTC into the grave. Look at Gold, look at Silver. The prices have been heavily suppressed for decades. Same thing will happen to BTC and they will drive retail out. It will just become another commodity. The decentralization and the circumvention of the corrupt monetary system.... what BTC was designed to do..... have been destroyed in one fell swoop. I for one am impressed. They will now be trading paper BTC like paper silver and the price will be whatever Blackrock wants the price to be.

Those of us that trade the markets know that price discovery and reality can be and are often wildly divergent. And the movements are controlled by the big money. Now with futures trading made legal in the USA ... wow... lots of money to be made from the controlled "volatility".

I'm long MONERO ... its the only one left that does what BTC was designed to do and when people start realizing that, the value will explode.


Can it be blocked at the ISP level? If so - also worthless if it gets big enough to get a target on its back.

Everything digitally financial is derivative of actual value that benefits those at the top who have more control and access than the average person.

In other words, same old shit.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10264 on: January 20, 2024, 04:19:21 AM »
Fellas, again, ignore the charlatans. Whoever thinks Blackrock or Fidelity are going to introduce a derivative product and then drive the price of the underlying asset into the ground really needs their heads checked:


gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10265 on: January 20, 2024, 09:04:43 AM »
Fellas, again, ignore the charlatans. Whoever thinks Blackrock or Fidelity are going to introduce a derivative product and then drive the price of the underlying asset into the ground really needs their heads checked:



Fully agree! It amazes me always the idiots out there with conspiracy theories in situations where what is about to happen is blatantly obvious. Once in a lifetime opportunity here, and yet people are still not piling in. These are the same people who will pile in post 100K lol!

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10266 on: January 20, 2024, 09:17:55 AM »

Can it be blocked at the ISP level? If so - also worthless if it gets big enough to get a target on its back.

Everything digitally financial is derivative of actual value that benefits those at the top who have more control and access than the average person.

In other words, same old shit.

You should worry far more about not having Bitcoin, than about theoretical attacks...

https://btc-hijack.ethz.ch/#

As for Bitcoin, its decentralization is its biggest strength. This stems from its origins of being created from the bottom up, as opposed to the top down. And has been discussed many times before, there is far more incentive for any actor to support Bitcoin than to devote immense money and resources at attempting to impair it. So, if this is your concern, at the current size of the network, Bitcoin is your single safest and most egalitarian global store of wealth.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10267 on: January 20, 2024, 09:28:00 AM »
US govt likely holds millions of confiscated BTC. I never hear any talk of this.


Many Governments own Bitcoin, and many more will try to acquire Sats over time, whether through buying, exchanging, taxing, confiscating, etc, for many obvious reasons (and maybe some not so obvious).

As for how much BTC the US Govt holds, most estimates put it at around 200K Bitcoins. (Not "millions" as you suggest, although at 200K, that is around USD 8 Billion in current value).

As for why you "never hear any talk of this", which I suggest is that rather than conjuring up conspiracy theories, what you should focus your listening skills on is when people talk about how much debt the US has, and how quickly the USD will be devalued over time...

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10268 on: January 20, 2024, 09:36:03 AM »

"...the revelation in late 2013 that Bitcoin was, in fact, the opposite of untraceable—that its blockchain would actually allow researchers, tech companies, and law enforcement to trace and identify users with even more transparency than the existing financial system."

https://www.wired.com/story/27-year-old-codebreaker-busted-myth-bitcoins-anonymity/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

This is correct, although it is not a "revelation". This code is open source and this was known from day #1. Indeed, every single transaction on the block chain will forever be recorded.

I have explained many times to you, and to others on this thread that Bitcoin transactions are pseudonymous. This means that whist the transactions are not hidden, the person behind the transaction can be. If this is all too confusing for you, then simply rest assured that there are numerous L2 protocols you can use to completely disguise your identity of a BTC transaction, if that is your concern.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10269 on: January 20, 2024, 09:48:16 AM »
The big boys are going to short BTC into the grave. Look at Gold, look at Silver. The prices have been heavily suppressed for decades. Same thing will happen to BTC and they will drive retail out. It will just become another commodity. The decentralization and the circumvention of the corrupt monetary system.... what BTC was designed to do..... have been destroyed in one fell swoop. I for one am impressed. They will now be trading paper BTC like paper silver and the price will be whatever Blackrock wants the price to be.

Those of us that trade the markets know that price discovery and reality can be and are often wildly divergent. And the movements are controlled by the big money. Now with futures trading made legal in the USA ... wow... lots of money to be made from the controlled "volatility".

I'm long MONERO ... its the only one left that does what BTC was designed to do and when people start realizing that, the value will explode.

Wrong on numerous levels.

The Big Boys are pretty much going to HODL. If you understand the ETF structure, you would know why.

And as for the Big Boys who are not ETF managers, they will also very much be buying for the long term.

Again, look at where the incentives are.

Also, you are confused with your concerns of "paper Bitcoin". First, all the ETFs (at least in the US), will be backed 1:1 by BTC (and this will be independently audited). Second, (as we saw from the downfall of numerous BTC scams), everything is always ultimately kept pure at the base layer. Any kind of derivative scam gets discovered, called, and washed out.

What the Big Boys do is bring both legitimacy and massive fund inflows into this asset. And that means massive price increases ahead.

As for Monero, I would not write it off, but as I explained, if anonymity is your goal, there are plenty of ways to do this with BTC. And indeed BTC is much much better for this, as there is a far more liquid and legitimate demand for this asset, whereas Monero is like raising a red flag to illegitimate funds. In the finance, game, you need to think at least 1 steps ahead, and in the crypto game ideally 2.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10270 on: January 20, 2024, 10:50:25 AM »
And to the posts about who still argue that BTC should not be held as an investment because it has no calculatable intrinsic value, whereas gold as "real value" allow me to explain, (again...)

Bitcoin has no intrinsic value as such, but its value is derived because it’s so difficult to take away.
There are three ways our money can be confiscated:

1. Through monetary inflation, which confiscates the real value of our wealth by stealth.
2. Through the failure of banks and other financial institutions that have custody of our wealth.
3. Through the outright expropriation of our wealth as, (for example, as was suffered by European Jews in the 1930s or in the US when they confiscated gold).

Bitcoin cannot be confiscated by any of these methods. This is one of many reasons why it is superior even to gold, which is immune to inflation and bank runs but can be physically stolen (as Jews and gypsies found out during Nazi Germany and as Americans found out at one point in time when owning gold as a store of value was made illegal, and seized at boarders as many Russian's and Chinese found out when trying leave Russia and China recently.

There are theoretical ways someone could steal your Bitcoin, such as capturing you and then torturing you holding until you surrendered the keys for your digital wallet, but this would be hard work for a government to do on any scale, and in any case there are methods you can do to literally make it impossible for you to be able to provide the keys under duress.

Gold does have uses in industry, but as it no longer backs currencies, the most of its value has come from its role as a hard to seize defense against devaluation from money printing. We can see that during times of inflation (basically a means of effective confiscation of value) became a real risk, the gold price really took off.

Assuming a price of about $500 per ounce, if there were no liquid market and central banks didn’t hold it, gold’s monetary value ($2,000 per ounce) would exceed its intrinsic value for industrial use by four times. Favoring gold over Bitcoin because of its lack of intrinsic value is therefore a mistake because it only factors in 25% of the investment. The rest of gold’s value comes from its network.

The market for non-confiscatability assets is currently worth around $15 trillion and it will continue to grow. Bitcoin will displace gold for this function, because among its many superior qualities, it is harder to confiscate, and this will lead to an increasing and self-fulfilling adoption cycle, which is what we have seen play out ever since BTC's inception.

Now that I have dealt with you all, I still just need to get back to MayDay on the (mis)understanding that money printing leads to growth GDP. I will do that a little later, but am now going to chill for a bit.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10271 on: January 20, 2024, 11:16:47 AM »
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value as such, but its value is derived because it’s so difficult to take away.
There are three ways our money can be confiscated:

1. Through monetary inflation, which confiscates the real value of our wealth by stealth.
2. Through the failure of banks and other financial institutions that have custody of our wealth.
3. Through the outright expropriation of our wealth as, (for example, as was suffered by European Jews in the 1930s or in the US when they confiscated gold).

I know this isn't what you were getting at. But the bitcoin ETF won't help with 2 or 3. Only owning the actual bitcoin. So, the brokerage could fail, or the government could confiscate the ETF funds. I assume the ETF owned through the brokerage would still be SIPC insured through the brokerage.

Owning regular bitcoin through an exchange like Coinbase could also pose issues as well. The exchange could get hacked like FTX, Mt Gox etc. And this is not FDIC (or SIPC) insured so you lose your money with no recourse.

Is this correct thinking?

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10272 on: January 20, 2024, 11:47:10 AM »
All that writing Gib, and yet BTC is a dream for those already in control. There is nothing more centralized that a single ledger.

This thing is a lightning rod so that legitimate options don't crop up. Maybe it didn't start that way, but it has been co-opted as needed. Another asset class/relief valve in a sea of derivatives and musical chairs that is the shell game of "money".

I'm from the early days of BTC where this was supposed to be the people's money...uncorruptible, untraceable, uniflatable, outside the banks and wall st, etc.

Look at it now. Bleh


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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10273 on: January 20, 2024, 05:28:42 PM »

Now that I have dealt with you all, I still just need to get back to MayDay on the (mis)understanding that money printing leads to growth GDP. I will do that a little later, but am now going to chill for a bit.

Great informative posts gib 👍

My thoughts on money almost nobody agrees with. It’s fine, I am used to being the dumbest in the room.

The guy who makes my coffees tells me all about global economics and says I am massively wrong aswell. 

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10274 on: January 21, 2024, 05:54:40 AM »
Great informative posts gib 👍

My thoughts on money almost nobody agrees with. It’s fine, I am used to being the dumbest in the room.

The guy who makes my coffees tells me all about global economics and says I am massively wrong aswell.

Your second wave of inflation call is looking more and more plausible, but I would remind you my call for a new SPX all time high played out almost exactly how I called it back in October 8)