Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[OneMoreRep]

They want to be able to get to your money. Many countries have tried to stop crypto and failed.

But when you have the worlds' central banks teaming up with a push towards stronger regulation of crypto currencies, there is very little hope for it to not get squeezed.

The world depends on these central banks. The US economy wouldn't survive without the Federal reserve and now that Jerome Powell is talking about a Fed coin being a high priority & Christine Lagarde (president of European Central Bank) is calling for more regulation, how long do you think it will take for BTC to start crumbling"?

Central banks wield all the power in the world, not digital currencies.

"1"

[Bindare_Dundat]

But when you have the worlds' central banks teaming up with a push towards stronger regulation of crypto currencies, there is very little hope for it to not get squeezed.

The world depends on these central banks. The US economy wouldn't survive without the Federal reserve and now that Jerome Powell is talking about a Fed coin being a high priority & Christine Lagarde (president of European Central Bank) is calling for more regulation, how long do you think it will take for BTC to start crumbling"?

Central banks wield all the power in the world, not digital currencies.

"1"

Guess it depends on what people perceive the purpose of Bitcoin is. I dont see it as a competing currency. I look at it as digital gold. Central banks own gold, I don't see how this is any different.
 cryptos have different purposes/utility

I think that's what yoire getting at. I'm kinda distracted at the moment. Lol

[LurkerNoMore]

Why am I listed as the thread starter?  I didn't start this thread.

[Griffith]

Why am I listed as the thread starter?  I didn't start this thread.

You have the first post in this thread 

[Mayday]

I'm considering Ethereum as well.

How much of a dip do you think we will see?

At the moment it's about $ 1200.

The dip is tough. I believe BtC goes to low 30s and everyone thinks I am mad. ETH would be around 1k at that point.

My original estimate for BTC was around the 77k region but that was back at 20k or so. Now price has gone up to 40k that number is probably closer to 95k.

BTC 77k / ETH 3k
BTC 95k / ETH 4K

That is conservative because unless you watch it like a demon you won’t get the top.

ETH should tap 5k-7k peak price. July timeframe, hence I sold BtC to move to ETH.

[Mayday]

But when you have the worlds' central banks teaming up with a push towards stronger regulation of crypto currencies, there is very little hope for it to not get squeezed.

The world depends on these central banks. The US economy wouldn't survive without the Federal reserve and now that Jerome Powell is talking about a Fed coin being a high priority & Christine Lagarde (president of European Central Bank) is calling for more regulation, how long do you think it will take for BTC to start crumbling"?

Central banks wield all the power in the world, not digital currencies.

"1"

Regulation means adoption equals higher price. If people don’t want regulation then they can’t have the higher price. Institutions will not enter an unregulated market because they are regulated themselves.

There is no squeeze from regulation. We saw a 10k-20k increase in price when grayscale, microstrategy and square entered into the market. They are institutions. We see a growth of price the more regulated crypto becomes.

 The world has bigger problems than crypto. We are in a depression right now. The US Has blown the. dow Jones to 30.5k during a pandemic causing the metrics to blow up. The risk in 2021 is a major capital flight from the Dow Jones. BTC will be 0.4T by the end of this year, that is peanuts vs a 50T collapse of the share market let alone the flow on effect after that.

If there is a capital flight it will be to gold and the US Dollar overwhelmingly.

The Fed coin is expansionary and the same as the USD. It will be used for basal income purposes. BTC is the opposite and not a wide spread tender for payment of goods and services. They are not in the same boat.

The biggest killer is people’s hatred for BTC. People said it would die at $300 and people still say it will die at $40,000. Meanwhile a shitload of money has been made.

[obsidian]

BTC will be 0.4T by the end of this year, that is peanuts vs a 50T collapse of the share market let alone the flow on effect after that.

BTC is already at 0.648T and was 0.762T when the price hit 40K.

[Griffith]

Raoul Pal believes that in 10 years Ethereum could have a bigger market cap than Bitcoin.

https://coinjournal.net/news/investor-claims-ethereum-may-surpass-market-cap-of-bitcoin/

[Mayday]

BTC is already at 0.648T and was 0.762T when the price hit 40K.

You missed ‘end of the year’....  you’ll see....

[Griffith]

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1347013614465638401?s=20

Raoul Pal: Yeah, ETH might well go to $20,000 this cycle... (exact same as BTC last cycle, by market cap ETH will be bigger)

[Mayday]

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1347013614465638401?s=20

Raoul Pal: Yeah, ETH might well go to $20,000 this cycle... (exact same as BTC last cycle, by market cap ETH will be bigger)

JPMorgan said BTC US146k but they don’t know when.

Let’s assume it’s during this round in 2021.

To get ETH to 20k is a ratio of 13.6 assuming a BTC value of 146k.

Look into history and we can confirm it has been up to a ratio of 0.17. Therefore we can say that yes, it has been that high in the past. However, look into that and we can see it was high at the start and then crashed to a 0.02 ratio.

This ramp we have seen up to a 0.035 ratio.

If I step back into my strategic mindset I’d suggest that it could go to 0.1 this cycle. When BTC taps 100k it becomes a mental roadblock for retail buyers who can’t afford 1 coin for 10k. However ETH for 10k can give them a coin. These buyers don’t care about metrics, only the multiple and price point psychology is massive to these buyers.

5k confident.
7k-8k stretch in the final run to BTC @ 100k+
10k on an overrun after BtC crashes

That’s as far as I can suggest is possible at this stage.

[Bindare_Dundat]

[OneMoreRep]

Regulation means adoption equals higher price. If people don’t want regulation then they can’t have the higher price. Institutions will not enter an unregulated market because they are regulated themselves.

There is no squeeze from regulation. We saw a 10k-20k increase in price when grayscale, microstrategy and square entered into the market. They are institutions. We see a growth of price the more regulated crypto becomes.

 The world has bigger problems than crypto. We are in a depression right now. The US Has blown the. dow Jones to 30.5k during a pandemic causing the metrics to blow up. The risk in 2021 is a major capital flight from the Dow Jones. BTC will be 0.4T by the end of this year, that is peanuts vs a 50T collapse of the share market let alone the flow on effect after that.

If there is a capital flight it will be to gold and the US Dollar overwhelmingly.

The Fed coin is expansionary and the same as the USD. It will be used for basal income purposes. BTC is the opposite and not a wide spread tender for payment of goods and services. They are not in the same boat.

The biggest killer is people’s hatred for BTC. People said it would die at $300 and people still say it will die at $40,000. Meanwhile a shitload of money has been made.

I hate to requote an old post of mine, but comment on these points I made, as they're points that relate to what the heads of the US Federal Reserve Bank, the European Central Bank and UBS had to say regarding BTC.

These are the people that mold and control the direction in which our economy goes. These are not just random CNBC commentators. Also, remember that some of the greatest investors in all of the world's history are staying away from it.

I'm sorry gentlemen, but this shit seems like a disaster.

Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset. It has created a bubble inflated by fear, speculation and hopes of a viable hedge against inflation + or even the possible collapse of the US dollar.

Here are some scenarios which could lead to a drastic drop in the value of BTC:

• The European Central Bank's president, Christine Lagarde, has called for greater regulation of BTC. If the European governments decide to squeeze BTC, it can lead to it's downfall. Not to mention that once Biden comfortable in the White House, he will most likely start to do the same and demand more regulation towards BTC.
• On Thursday, January 12, 2021, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell stressed the fact that the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is a very high priority. In other words, the US Federal Reserve Bank is already working on this and this is essentially the epitaph on BitCoin's tombstone.
• Why is BTC seeking for crypto custody by large US financial institutions? Playing devil's advocate, let's consider an alternate scenario as to the reason "why" BTC is looking for assumption of crypto custody by large US financial institutions. I believe BTC’s recent search for crypto custody by large US financial institutions (like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan & CitiBank) is likely a move out of sheer desperation by BTC due to fears of likely incoming government regulation and furthermore the creation of a Federal Reserve digital currency. Remember, the Federal Reserve (which is made up of the 12 distinct Federal Reserve banks in the USA) is not owned by the US government (even though the US government/President can nominate a chairman). There are old families, which control some of the largest financial institutions here in the USA, that are behind the FED in its totality. I think it is farfetched to assume that after they (the families) built up the USA's standing as the current world superpower with the world's reserve FIAT currency, that they will just bend over and allow for the rise of BTC as the alternative to the US Dollar. If the FED gets involved and pushes for a FED coin (As Jerome Powell just suggested), BTC will disappear or at the very least crawl back into the speculative cave from which it came from to die a painful death.
• If the USD index continues to rise as recently seen this past week, then BTC value will undoubtedly drop as there has always been an inverse correlation between the two.
• Increased US government regulation of cryptocurrencies. Remember, Joe Biden and his party want more government regulation & taxation. This is the Democratic party for fuck's sake and they're about wealth redistribution at the cost of the wealthy. For anyone to think that a hypothetical store of wealth like BitCoin (where many of the "young" rich are trying to hide their money) would be immune to high government regulation, that Biden and family look to bring, is downright naive. Also, with the European Central Bank calling for more regulation of BitCoin, how long before the US Federal Reserve bank does the same? If the Fed follows in similar path to the European Central Bank, you better bet the house on the fact that Biden and Democratically controlled Congress will do as the FED asks, because they (The FED) are literally the USA's piggy bank.
• If a better designed version of cryptocurrency is created, it can also make BTC go away (this was most recently voiced by UBS).
• History has shown us that right as stocks (of any kind) are overbought, this most often times than not leads to ultimate corrections in price. Right now, BTC is way overvalued & overbought, I think his most recent 28% drop in the price of BTC was just the beginning.

Here are some scenarios which could lead to a temporary rise (even if short-lived) in the value of BTC:

• Crypto custody assumed by large US financial institutions. This will create a false sense of security, as traders/investors in Wall Street will adopt the sentiment that these financial institutions are TOO BIG TO FAIL and that the fate of the US economy hangs in their balance, which would then lead these investors to blindly assume trust on crypto not collapsing. The average financial analyst will assume that these big institutions would never assume such risky positions unless they knew something that the common man doesn't. What people forget is that these large institutions care about their FEES above all else. Regardless of BTC rising or crashing, so as long as they can charge their customer fees and get money for subsidized gambling, they don't give a fuck about the fate of BTC or any other cryptocurrency.
• A move from a worldwide dependence on oil to more sustainable sources of energy (electric, solar, hydrogen, wind sources etc). Given that oil is priced in dollars, we've had a monopoly in the world markets, but if you take the value of oil away, it will hurt the US dollar index substantially and lends more value to BTC. With some states like California talking about removing all oil powered cars by 2030 (clean car mandate), this could slowly set a trend that could be followed by other states, which could be bad for big oil companies and of course the US dollar.
• Fear of the US dollar undergoing substantial inflation (due to US gov't counting on the FED to continuously keep monetizing the debt in order to keep funding additional relief packages, keep our economy on life support & to furthermore fund the green new deal that democrats will aim for under Biden). If the USD loses value, most people will look for alternatives hedges against inflation. While I believe in different assets (Real Estate etc), some will blindly place trust in digital FIAT currency.

Let me know what you guys think. As an accountant, easily over half of my clients have sizable positions in BitCoin and when now preparing their taxes for the 2020 year, I keep asking the same questions to them that I have posed to you all. Sadly, they are mostly driven by the fear of missing out on a possible great opportunity created by BTC to make money. They're not looking at the end game, but instead following the guidance of their financial advisors that are of course supplied by the big financial trading firms.

Let me know what you think.

"1"

[Bindare_Dundat]

I hate to requote an old post of mine, but comment on these points I made, as they're points that relate to what the heads of the US Federal Reserve Bank, the European Central Bank and UBS had to say regarding BTC.

These are the people that mold and control the direction in which our economy goes. These are not just random CNBC commentators. Also, remember that some of the greatest investors in all of the world's history are staying away from it.

Let me know what you think.

"1"

Are you trying to be convinced to get into crypto or are you trying to deter people from getting involved?

[OneMoreRep]

Are you trying to be convinced to get into crypto or are you trying to deter people from getting involved?

I don't actively trade in any stocks in the market (assets, commodities or even these more modern hedges against inflation via crypto). I solely invest in the market via index funds and ETFs.

That said, as a student of economics and accounting, I'm trying to find the value and reason behind this recent move towards BTC, as it appears to be a speculative bubble.

So to answer your question, I'm not trying to be convinced to buy BTC. Nor am I trying to dissuade any of you from using your money as you see fit.

Even institutional traders on Wall Street aren't very convinced by this, but they'll gladly have their retail traders have the common folk buy the fuck out of BTC to inflate the price of it.

"1"

[Mayday]

I don't actively trade in any stocks in the market (assets, commodities or even these more modern hedges against inflation via crypto). I solely invest in the market via index funds and ETFs.

That said, as a student of economics and accounting, I'm trying to find the value and reason behind this recent move towards BTC, as it appears to be a speculative bubble.

So to answer your question, I'm not trying to be convinced to buy BTC. Nor am I trying to dissuade any of you from using your money as you see fit.

Even institutional traders on Wall Street aren't very convinced by this, but they'll gladly have their retail traders have the common folk buy the fuck out of BTC to inflate the price of it.

"1"

I’ll go with your points being in regards to the life of BtC and not what happens in this current cycle (I have said i believe BTC is going to low 30s, brief dip into the 20s followed by a rally to 55k in this cycle).

I just see it very differently to you and the majority.

The key is forming a timeframe with one’s prediction or forecast. That is a feasibility test in itself. If you say BTC goes to zero tomorrow, is it feasible?

The points you list as negatives in your opinion you equate to risk and a downfall in price. Whereas I see it as moves towards acceptance and adoption with a resulting increase in price. The real world outcome of regulation so far has been correlated to an increase in price. Therefore the position of regulation = downward price pressure has been historically proven incorrect.

To continue to use regulation = downward price pressure as an argument for collapse requires a 180 on the historic results for future results. Sure it can happen but you need a catalyst for that to occur and change the trend.

Did BTC stop at 300?
Did BtC stop at 1,000?
Did BtC stop at 10,000?
Did BtC stop at 20,000?
Did BtC stop at 30,000?

Now let’s go with a catalyst and what it could be. My opinion is that the success of BTC would be the most likely catalyst for it’s failure. My biggest red flag for BTC is the old money isn’t the largest holders, therefore the threat is the largest holders being able to either cash out into fiat or acquire leverage against their holdings and buy those people out.

If we roll with that it means we need to see BTC succeed to a certain level. That level we could identify as nearing a point where large holders can cash out and/or acquire huge leverage against their coins to purchase other assets.

For 2021 we see a base level price of 20k and a volatility spike to 100k. For 2022 we see a base level to 40k stock to flow. We probably need a 100k base price and a 500k volatility spike to really ruffle feathers. Put my finger in the air and I’d suggest 2025 being the catalyst year.


I don’t believe BTC will go to zero but I believe it will be overtaken.

[Griffith]

I’ll go with your points being in regards to the life of BtC and not what happens in this current cycle (I have said i believe BTC is going to low 30s, brief dip into the 20s followed by a rally to 55k in this cycle).

I just see it very differently to you and the majority.

The key is forming a timeframe with one’s prediction or forecast. That is a feasibility test in itself. If you say BTC goes to zero tomorrow, is it feasible?

The points you list as negatives in your opinion you equate to risk and a downfall in price. Whereas I see it as moves towards acceptance and adoption with a resulting increase in price. The real world outcome of regulation so far has been correlated to an increase in price. Therefore the position of regulation = downward price pressure has been historically proven incorrect.

To continue to use regulation = downward price pressure as an argument for collapse requires a 180 on the historic results for future results. Sure it can happen but you need a catalyst for that to occur and change the trend.

Did BTC stop at 300?
Did BtC stop at 1,000?
Did BtC stop at 10,000?
Did BtC stop at 20,000?
Did BtC stop at 30,000?

Now let’s go with a catalyst and what it could be. My opinion is that the success of BTC would be the most likely catalyst for it’s failure. My biggest red flag for BTC is the old money isn’t the largest holders, therefore the threat is the largest holders being able to either cash out into fiat or acquire leverage against their holdings and buy those people out.

If we roll with that it means we need to see BTC succeed to a certain level. That level we could identify as nearing a point where large holders can cash out and/or acquire huge leverage against their coins to purchase other assets.

For 2021 we see a base level price of 20k and a volatility spike to 100k. For 2022 we see a base level to 40k stock to flow. We probably need a 100k base price and a 500k volatility spike to really ruffle feathers. Put my finger in the air and I’d suggest 2025 being the catalyst year.


I don’t believe BTC will go to zero but I believe it will we overtaken.

Ethereum?

[Bindare_Dundat]

I’ll go with your points being in regards to the life of BtC and not what happens in this current cycle (I have said i believe BTC is going to low 30s, brief dip into the 20s followed by a rally to 55k in this cycle).

I just see it very differently to you and the majority.

The key is forming a timeframe with one’s prediction or forecast. That is a feasibility test in itself. If you say BTC goes to zero tomorrow, is it feasible?

The points you list as negatives in your opinion you equate to risk and a downfall in price. Whereas I see it as moves towards acceptance and adoption with a resulting increase in price. The real world outcome of regulation so far has been correlated to an increase in price. Therefore the position of regulation = downward price pressure has been historically proven incorrect.

To continue to use regulation = downward price pressure as an argument for collapse requires a 180 on the historic results for future results. Sure it can happen but you need a catalyst for that to occur and change the trend.

Did BTC stop at 300?
Did BtC stop at 1,000?
Did BtC stop at 10,000?
Did BtC stop at 20,000?
Did BtC stop at 30,000?

Now let’s go with a catalyst and what it could be. My opinion is that the success of BTC would be the most likely catalyst for it’s failure. My biggest red flag for BTC is the old money isn’t the largest holders, therefore the threat is the largest holders being able to either cash out into fiat or acquire leverage against their holdings and buy those people out.

If we roll with that it means we need to see BTC succeed to a certain level. That level we could identify as nearing a point where large holders can cash out and/or acquire huge leverage against their coins to purchase other assets.

For 2021 we see a base level price of 20k and a volatility spike to 100k. For 2022 we see a base level to 40k stock to flow. We probably need a 100k base price and a 500k volatility spike to really ruffle feathers. Put my finger in the air and I’d suggest 2025 being the catalyst year.


I don’t believe BTC will go to zero but I believe it will we overtaken.

I think onemorerep is looking at BTC main purpose as a competing currency and thats why he views it so negatively.  But if you look at it as a store of wealth the way gold bugs do, it changes the picture.
Same with ethereum. It works a different way then bitcoin does,  it allows for person to person  contracts exchanges across many asset classes,  Polkadot does yet something else. They all have different uses.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but I think if you can get out of the box of looking at btc as competing currency, things open up a bit more.

Please, anyone,  correct me if I'm wrong here. Just got up, not proofreading my statement, so hopefully it makes sense. Lol

[polychronopolous]

I think onemorerep is looking at BTC main purpose as a competing currency and thats why he views it so negatively.  But if you look at it as a store of wealth the way gold bugs do, it changes the picture.
Same with ethereum. It works a different way then bitcoin does,  it allows for person to person contracts that excludes a third party,  and it could be for any asset. Polkadot does yet something else. They all have different uses.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but I think if you can get out of the box of looking at btc as competing currency, things open up a bit more.

Please, anyone,  correct me if I'm wrong here. Just got up, not proofreading my statement, so hopefully it makes sense. Lol

I wonder how much of this newbie FUD goes out the window if it was simply known as a 'crypto-store of value' versus a cryptocurrency?

[Griffith]

https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2020/12/16/cme_group_to_launchetherfuturesonfebruary82021.html

CME Group to Launch Ether Futures on February 8, 2021

CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, announced it intends to launch Ether futures starting February 8, 2021, pending regulatory review.

The new contract will be cash-settled, based on the CME CF Ether-Dollar Reference Rate, which serves as a once-a-day reference rate of the U.S. dollar price of Ether.

[SOMEPARTS]

I wonder how much of this newbie FUD goes out the window if it was simply known as a 'crypto-store of value' versus a cryptocurrency?

None if how you perceive value is in line with reality. IMO you have to suspend all perception of counterparty risk in favor of greed to get there.

[D.O.A.]

That dude is awesome! Im buying coins right now

[Griffith]

From 1:50 briefly explains the Ethereum platform. It is also the system currently used for USDC, a digital coin backed by the US dollar, and also for any stablecoins (digitial currencies pegged to national currencies or commodities). Paypal will also be using USDC.

Ethereum is also the blockchain now used by several major banks, including JP Morgan.

Many countries do not allow purchasing of foreign currency, so I think for Third World countries or countries with weak, unstable or devaluing currencies, USDC could be huge. It would be a way to hedge against local currency devaluation without having to physically buy hard currency and be relatively stable as it's pegged to and backed by a hard currency.

[OneMoreRep]

The points you list as negatives in your opinion you equate to risk and a downfall in price. Whereas I see it as moves towards acceptance and adoption with a resulting increase in price. The real world outcome of regulation so far has been correlated to an increase in price. Therefore the position of regulation = downward price pressure has been historically proven

That's one of the places where we differ, because any time regulation comes into play, it adds additional layers of complexity and oversight, which then makes it harder to openly trade.

To continue to use regulation = downward price pressure as an argument for collapse requires a 180 on the historic results for future results. Sure it can happen but you need a catalyst for that to occur and change the trend.

What catalyst can you envision?

My biggest red flag for BTC is the old money isn’t the largest holders, therefore the threat is the largest holders being able to either cash out into fiat or acquire leverage against their holdings and buy those people out.

I've been noticing that. Old money (Big money) isn't jumping at BTC and apparently neither are too many institutional traders.

I don’t believe BTC will go to zero but I believe it will we overtken.

By who, a better version of crypto or instead a government sponsored version of digital currency? I can't imagine any government, US or otherwise, not chomping at the bit to introduce digital currency for the purpose of continuing to grow their economy BUT most importantly, to have absolute oversight of ALL of its citizens.

"1"

[Mayday]

That's one of the places where we differ, because any time regulation comes into play, it adds additional layers of complexity and oversight, which then makes it harder to openly trade.

What catalyst can you envision?

I've been noticing that. Old money (Big money) isn't jumping at BTC and apparently neither are too many institutional traders.

By who, a better version of crypto or instead a government sponsored version of digital currency? I can't imagine any government, US or otherwise, not chomping at the bit to introduce digital currency for the purpose of continuing to grow their economy BUT most importantly, to have absolute oversight of ALL of its citizens.

"1"

**That's one of the places where we differ
This is why it is absolutely critical to allocate a timeframe to one's prediction in order to perform a feasibility test. The current historical trend proves your position of regulation = downward price pressure to be factually incorrect for almost a decade now. In 2021 your feeling will be wrong again which makes it 11 years of being wrong. 2022 BTC will most likely still be humming along which will make it 12 years of being wrong..... See what i mean?

Absolutely regulation can kill it. However, if from $300 you say it's going to die a fiery death and then at $500,000 it turns out it does actually die a fiery death and you are cheering about how intelligent you are...... well that probably won't be something to brag about.


**What catalyst can you envision?
The success of BTC. It reaches a price point where large holders can liquidate a large portion and also acquire leverage against holdings to purchase other assets. This won't be 2021 or 2022 simply because BTC won't crack 1T market cap on a trendline pattern. I would monitor from 2023-2025 timeframe.

**I've been noticing that. Old money (Big money) isn't jumping at BTC and apparently neither are too many institutional traders.
Exactly. Notice they never say crypto is dead....... they are always very specific to state that BTC is a POS......


**By who
BTC to be overtaken by another coin in the crypto market.

I don't believe the central bank sovereign coins are a threat (this is just how i feel right now) based on my knowledge of monetary systems and the money supply. They are expansionary vs existing coins which are fixed which means they are not a thread to the scarcity belief system of crypto today.  I believe the new digital coins will form the basis of UBI payments and only allow purchases of specific products. Ie the Fed crypto allows purchases of basic needs - food, basic clothing, shelter, transport by approved vendors. If you want the 'nice' stuff then that will be purchased by your income.