Bull or no bull makes no difference to me. Im waiting end of the year for these companies to mature thats why ill allocate a small portion of btc and majority of my shitcoins. Im of the theory of maydays price models(minus government banning) and have been since s2f.
I am at time lazy with my words which leaves out context. I will try and add context now.
Let me also play a bit of devil’s advocate and ask the question, why would this bull market only last 12 months?
Models are generally right until they are wrong. The more accurate a model, generally speaking the more mature the market and greater the depth (time) and quality (data points) it has. New models in non-stablished markets do not yet have the depth or quality and therefore have a greater chance of breaking. I replied to one of Raoul’s tweets with the above and he liked it (I am famous now lol) so I’m not talking out my ass here.
Specifically in this case I refer to diminished returns. In a maturing market you will see diminished returns. In a market that is in it’s infancy the returns are generally all over the place. I am of the opinion BTC is in it’s infancy and has not yet established a market (due to lack of institutional money). Only once institutions are in by a good portion do we establish a market base of which to measure after.
In support of my comments above are the fact that popular quants have revised their original models up in price point a number of times already in a short period. Even after that they are talking about numbers higher than their newly revised models.
We are at base level today. Let’s say this hits 100k then 200k using only 2% of the financial institutions wallets. Why would it stop there? Because previous models say a bull market ran for only 12 months therefore this one must only run for 12 months? I’m not convinced.
The models just got revised 3 times because the behaviour of buyers, the type of new participants and crypto leaving the exchanges is different to all previous bull market models.
I believe that once big money comes in it will continue to come in until something forces It to stop. I don’t think the previous market forces that ended prior bullmarkets will end this one because the behaviour isn’t the same.
I think the inflows will keep coming and The models will be blown up as price flies higher and higher. I think we will see capital drains from other financial markets, markets that central banks spent trillions in QE to prevent collapse. We should see front running of the following halving because a 500k price is fuck all compared to a 2.5M price target 4yrs later. 500% returns in 4yrs for the bank, hell yes they’d be in!
It’s therefore plausible we see capital flight resulting in a knee jerk reaction by central banks, regulators and govts to prevent damage. Black swan events. Exchanges go down? Exchanges get hacked? Things that create fear and risk to Stop the outflows from other assets into crypto. Not to kill it, just slow it down.
I am suggesting the ‘risk’ of playing with crypto is what becomes key in this market rather than merely looking at formulated cycles. Perhaps we get to 135k and then a sudden risk event reads it’s head and scares the shit out of everyone? Next thing price dumps, stabilises and then rockets again.... perhaps we see a 1.5-2yr bull market consisting of 2 market peaks with a ‘risk event’ in between?
