Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[Mayday]

So why is bitcoin the best?

Try not to think of the tech terms to keep it easy.

Think of it like this, BTC is like the US but stronger.

Post world war 2 the US rocketed off to be the world’s leading country. Everybody developed and moved forward but the US was always the most solid and the centre of everything.

If the US catches a cold, everybody gets sick. Nobody else has that effect. The same as BTC catches a cold all coins get sick.

Even in bad times. 1970s the US still in control. GFC the US still in control. Pandemic, the US still in control.

We are in collapse right now and there is nothing better out there than BTC in terms of market support. It has been the fastest growing network in history and We are in 1994 in internet adoption terms right now. The internet probably took 20yrs to really be everywhere and BTC is something like 4x faster adoption.

[Mayday]

Run the numbers and come to your own conclusions.

48million millionaires  in the world
2.5million btc left on the exchanges
100million + users said to grow to 1billion by 2025
21 million btc ONLY
~3million lost forever.

2,000 billionaires in the word input 1B each gives 2T net inflow
2.32M coins left on exchanges
On a flat price 2T / 2.32M = 862k......

In the real world we never run out of BTC because of price action so the price go up significantly and in this example 862k price per coin would more likely be price towards 2M+ and supply still remaining.

This value would continue to grow as more capital flows in.

Now consider a supply/demand price scale......

[Flexacon]

Why won't it be bitcoin?

It enables too much shady shit to go on unseen and governments don't like it. The latter will bring about it's inevitable downfall.

It's also no longer the best solution for the purpose it was originally designed for. Think along the lines of why some web browsers or search engines that at one time had over a 90% of the market and are no longer used.

Most getting into bitcoin now are basically using in it the same way someone might invest in a rare baseball card, precious gems or artwork. Or as a hedge against a complete market collapse/hyperinflation. Some will do very well out of it, some will get their fingers burnt.

I'll add the caveat that no ones knows for certain what will happen and this is all opinion, but history is a great teacher. This has dotcom written all over it.

[Mayday]

I'll add the caveat that no ones knows for certain what will happen and this is all opinion, but history is a great teacher. This has dotcom written all over it.

Can I get your thoughts on your end point?

If history is a great teacher why do you assume the negative outcome? Why can’t this be the internet? Online banking? Social media etc? All very successful and strong platforms of technology.

If we had no pandemic, no global shutdown and it was business as usual I’d most likely agree with you.

However we have a pandemic, global shutdown, bond yield collapse, money supply expansion at record levels causing huge wage deflation. In this environment we see Hyperinflation of the Bitcoin price which is exactly what it was designed to do in this environment as a signal to people of what was happening to the money supply.

Gold is moving at 15% which is pretty much inline with the M3 expansion but it hasn’t grown in adoption......  in the 40s and 70s we saw gold go parabolic as people ram to it yet today we see gold chugging along but people running to Bitcoin.

[pellius]

The crypto market right now is basically dotcom boom playing out again.

One or 2 of the cryptos might be a future Amazon or google (it won't be bitcoin), but the vast majority are going to disappear once government/bank backed cryptos come into play.

Why are you so sure it won't be BTC being that it is the largest, strongest, and most well known and familiar with the general public.

[pellius]

Run the numbers and come to your own conclusions.

48million millionaires  in the world
2.5million btc left on the exchanges
100million + users said to grow to 1billion by 2025
21 million btc ONLY
~3million lost forever.

The number of BTC is finite. The worth of a single BTC is infinite.

[pellius]

It enables too much shady shit to go on unseen and governments don't like it. The latter will bring about it's inevitable downfall.

It's also no longer the best solution for the purpose it was originally designed for. Think along the lines of why some web browsers or search engines that at one time had over a 90% of the market and are no longer used.

Most getting into bitcoin now are basically using in it the same way someone might invest in a rare baseball card, precious gems or artwork. Or as a hedge against a complete market collapse/hyperinflation. Some will do very well out of it, some will get their fingers burnt.

I'll add the caveat that no ones knows for certain what will happen and this is all opinion, but history is a great teacher. This has dotcom written all over it.

The "shady shit" that goes on is because BTC is what is being used. Why would any other crypto that people would start bothering to use be any less susceptible to "shady shit"?

[Flexacon]

Can I get your thoughts on your end point?

If history is a great teacher why do you assume the negative outcome? Why can’t this be the internet? Online banking? Social media etc? All very successful and strong platforms of technology.

If we had no pandemic, no global shutdown and it was business as usual I’d most likely agree with you.

However we have a pandemic, global shutdown, bond yield collapse, money supply expansion at record levels causing huge wage deflation. In this environment we see Hyperinflation of the Bitcoin price which is exactly what it was designed to do in this environment as a signal to people of what was happening to the money supply.

Gold is moving at 15% which is pretty much inline with the M3 expansion but it hasn’t grown in adoption......  in the 40s and 70s we saw gold go parabolic as people ram to it yet today we see gold chugging along but people running to Bitcoin.

Blockchain is the internet and that isn't going anywhere. The current cryptos are where I see there being a negative outcome as the situation resembles the madness involving dotcom companies. It doesn't mean I see that as being the end of cryptos, quite the opposite. That's when cryptos will start to become truly mainstream. But it won't be any of the ones getting the headlines now. It will most likely be something new.

People are rightly feeling uneasy with everything going on right now, but the pandemic is reaching its tailend in the West and IMO the boom period will beat expectations. There is a ridiculous amount of money waiting to spent by people with poor impulse control. At worst this kicks the can further down the road and delays any crash (look to history again) but that's enough time for blockchain and crypto to take another evolution.

[obsidian]

Blockchain is the internet and that isn't going anywhere. The current cryptos are where I see there being a negative outcome as the situation resembles the madness involving dotcom companies. It doesn't mean I see that as being the end of cryptos, quite the opposite. That's when cryptos will start to become truly mainstream. But it won't be any of the ones getting the headlines now. It will most likely be something new.

People are rightly feeling uneasy with everything going on right now, but the pandemic is reaching its tailend in the West and IMO the boom period will beat expectations. There is a ridiculous amount of money waiting to spent by people with poor impulse control. At worst this kicks the can further down the road and delays any crash (look to history again) but that's enough time for blockchain and crypto to take another evolution.

You are discounting the network effect. It takes time to build that up. The current cryptos have a head start.

[obsidian]

[Flexacon]

Why are you so sure it won't be BTC being that it is the largest, strongest, and most well known and familiar with the general public.

I explained in post 5978. Same reason people stopped using netscape, Aol search etc.

The "shady shit" that goes on is because BTC is what is being used. Why would any other crypto that people would start bothering to use be any less susceptible to "shady shit"?

Because every transaction could be tracked or limited to certain types of transactions if the crypto was designed that way.

Also you do realise that they could outlaw bitcoin, ban mining, shut down exchanges and a whole host of other restrictions if they wanted to. Even if that didn't kill off bitcoin, it would send the price crashing. Bitcoin is a free beta testing for the government when it comes to blockchain.

[obsidian]

I explained in post 5978. Same reason people stopped using netscape, Aol search etc.

Because every transaction could be tracked or limited to certain transactions if the crypto was designed that way.

Also you do realise that they could outlaw bitcoin, ban mining, shut down exchanges and a whole host of other restrictions if they wanted to. Even if that didn't kill off bitcoin, it would send the price crashing. Bitcoin is a free beta testing for blockchain.

Government officials are probably also invested in crypto. Why would they want to kill that? Also the more wealth goes into crypto the more lobbying power the industry could have.

But it is a noteworthy argument to look at the past dot com bubble and also what happened in the mobile phone arena. Blackberry and Nokia were huge and dominated. Along came Apple with the iPhone and then Android to spoil the party for them.

[Flexacon]

You are discounting the network effect. It takes time to build that up. The current cryptos have a head start.

I'm sure a few cryptos will sneak through. Like how Amazon survived the dotcom crash. One of those crypto might even end up being the one banking and governments adopt. It won't be bitcoin though.

[Flexacon]

Government officials are probably also invested in crypto. Why would they want to kill that? Also the more wealth goes into crypto the more lobbying power the industry could have.

But it is a noteworthy argument to look at the past dot com bubble and also what happened in the mobile phone arena. Blackberry and Nokia were huge and dominated. Along came Apple with the iPhone and then Android to spoil the party for them.

Government officials will naturally invest in current cryptos because they'll know before most of us if shit is about to hit the fan.

[Mayday]

People are rightly feeling uneasy with everything going on right now, but the pandemic is reaching its tailend in the West and IMO the boom period will beat expectations. There is a ridiculous amount of money waiting to spent by people with poor impulse control. At worst this kicks the can further down the road and delays any crash (look to history again) but that's enough time for blockchain and crypto to take another evolution.

2008 GFC kicked the can and it landed in 2020.

The Boom is happening in financial assets at the top end but that’s it.

Stocks go up. Commodities go up. Property goes up. Wages deflated.l against financial assets.

There is no wage inflation because it’s linked to CPI. There is no CPI because it’s linked to the bond market. There is no yield in the bond market because they started to perform Yield Curve Control to prevent interest rates going up and prevent inflation which in turn keeps wages down.

The property I purchased 6 months ago went up 50%. My wage went up 0.9% over a year inline with CPI.

We already have a 5x in sea fright costs.

We will get a large cost increase from commodities on top of this due to traders buying up contracts and raising our cost base.

If retail prices go up, volumes drop and profit gets squeezed whilst at the same time workers scream for higher wages and business who won’t/can’t pay higher wages scream they can’t find workers.

[gib]

2008 GFC kicked the can and it landed in 2020.

The Boom is happening in financial assets at the top end but that’s it.

Stocks go up. Commodities go up. Property goes up. Wages deflated.l against financial assets.

There is no wage inflation because it’s linked to CPI. There is no CPI because it’s linked to the bond market. There is no yield in the bond market because they started to perform Yield Curve Control to prevent interest rates going up and prevent inflation which in turn keeps wages down.

The property I purchased 6 months ago went up 50%. My wage went up 0.9% over a year inline with CPI.

We already have a 5x in sea fright costs.

We will get a large cost increase from commodities on top of this due to traders buying up contracts and raising our cost base.

If retail prices go up, volumes drop and profit gets squeezed whilst at the same time workers scream for higher wages and business who won’t/can’t pay higher wages scream they can’t find workers.

Agree with all this, except the statement that wages are linked to CPI. Wages are in fact entirely linked and governed by labour supply and demand. So, for some people, their wages have gone up significantly. For others their wages have fallen (or ceased entirely). Same for the profits (or losses) of businesses. That is not to say that both employers and employees might not reference a CPI calculation in negotiating wages. But ultimately, the price for services (and that includes price for labor) is a function of supply and demand.

[gib]

Government officials will naturally invest in current cryptos because they'll know before most of us if shit is about to hit the fan.

Not just will, but already have...

And not just Govt officials, but also the rich and powerful.

[gib]

I'm sure a few cryptos will sneak through. Like how Amazon survived the dotcom crash. One of those crypto might even end up being the one banking and governments adopt. It won't be bitcoin though.

Certainly possible. But (much as I wish it was not the case) what is not possible that you (or me) can accurately predict what those surviving alts will be (nor what price now pay for them below any kind of current fair market value that takes into account anticipated future value).

In terms of "what Governments will adopt", Bitcoin has already been adopted by Government globally (indeed they have no choice). Citizens of ALL Governments globally are already (and will continue) to use BTC as a global store of value. Samoe applies to banks. Bitcoin is the single largest crypto asset banks hold, allow payments for, provide custody services for, have customer fiat money converted over into BTC, connect with credit cards that have BTC as an option, etc etc.

Its very important that you understand this now (as opposed to in 10 years time).

If you are not already, my advice is simple , Ensure you are a wholecoiner (one of the future monetary elite).  Ideally do this also for your loved ones, family etc. Then simply hodl, ignoring noise along the way. Thank me (and more importantly yourself) for your foresight in a decade from now.

[Mayday]

Agree with all this, except the statement that wages are linked to CPI. Wages are in fact entirely linked and governed by labour supply and demand. So, for some people, their wages have gone up significantly. For others their wages have fallen (or ceased entirely). Same for the profits (or losses) of businesses. That is not to say that both employers and employees might not reference a CPI calculation in negotiating wages. But ultimately, the price for services (and that includes price for labor) is a function of supply and demand.

CPI is the metric used for business to justify wage inflation.

The fundamental is supply/demand which sets the initial salary band as you say but after that the business economy and govts use CPI for annual wage increase calculations and forecasts.

We don’t have ‘wage price discovery’ on an annual basis. We all know what we are worth due to the massive amount of job data available. Once employed, you get CPI annual increases for the vast majority.

You know that Mr picky lol. It’s acceptable To talk in broader terms yeah?

[Griffith]

CPI is the metric used for business to justify wage inflation.

The fundamental is supply/demand which sets the initial salary band as you say but after that the business economy and govts use CPI for annual wage increase calculations and forecasts.

We don’t have ‘wage price discovery’ on an annual basis. We all know what we are worth due to the massive amount of job data available. Once employed, you get CPI annual increases for the vast majority.

You know that Mr picky lol. It’s acceptable To talk in broader terms yeah?

Correct.

[obsidian]

[Griffith]

I'm keeping an eye on VeChain (VET).

It's performed extremely well for me so far and I think there's a good chance it go to at least $1.00 in this bull cycle from a current $ 0.22.

If it gets listed on Coinbase, the price could also skyrocket.

Some more optimistic forecasts I've seen are $3.00 to $5.00.

[pellius]

Blockchain is the internet and that isn't going anywhere. The current cryptos are where I see there being a negative outcome as the situation resembles the madness involving dotcom companies. It doesn't mean I see that as being the end of cryptos, quite the opposite. That's when cryptos will start to become truly mainstream. But it won't be any of the ones getting the headlines now. It will most likely be something new.

People are rightly feeling uneasy with everything going on right now, but the pandemic is reaching its tailend in the West and IMO the boom period will beat expectations. There is a ridiculous amount of money waiting to spent by people with poor impulse control. At worst this kicks the can further down the road and delays any crash (look to history again) but that's enough time for blockchain and crypto to take another evolution.

Again, based on what? Sounds like you're just making random speculations to appear in the know when you know full well that you will never be called out on being wrong.

[pellius]

I explained in post 5978. Same reason people stopped using netscape, Aol search etc.

And the reason for that was..... Yes, new competitors enter the market and often do it better if the original doesn't adapt. Cash gave way to checks, to credit cards, to internet... things evolve but that doesn't mean those options didn't serve it's purpose. BTC is here now and is what most people are using and will continue to grow. Will it be around forever? Nothing lasts forever. Sears use to rule the retail world. They are all but gone now. You're acting like BTC is not worth the investment and we should wait for the next big thing.

Because every transaction could be tracked or limited to certain types of transactions if the crypto was designed that way.

Also you do realise that they could outlaw bitcoin, ban mining, shut down exchanges and a whole host of other restrictions if they wanted to. Even if that didn't kill off bitcoin, it would send the price crashing. Bitcoin is a free beta testing for the government when it comes to blockchain.

Also you do realize this applies to every single crypto out there and in the future so that's hardly an argument.

[obsidian]

Ethereum went up to $2,504 again today. Ethereum's price really should be at around $5,000-$6,000 with Bitcoin sitting above $50,000.

Ethereum's circulating supply is around 115.12 million. Bitcoin's circulation supply is 18.69 million. That means ETH's supply is 6.15 times that of BTC. And with EIP-1559 ETH's inflation will be stopped in its tracks. One could argue that ETH's token value should be 1/6th of Bitcoin's. $54,000 / 6 = $9,000. $2,400-$2,500 is really laughable when you consider the fundamentals of Ethereum.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-21/Dogecoin-and-Ethereum-one-of-these-is-very-very-undervalued-Ran-Neuner.html

Ethereum’s value lies in not just its technological capabilities, but also in its network effect, said Ran Neuner, co-founder of Crypto Banter, host of CNBC’s Crypto Trader and CEO of OnChain Capital.

Speaking to Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief for Kitco News, Neuner said that should Ethereum be priced using comparable network metrics as Bitcoin, the price should be several times higher.

“If you compare where the Ethereum network is versus the Bitcoin network, and you say on a like-for-like basis, what should Ethereum be trading at? You get a valuation, according to Metcalfe’s Law, of Ethereum at about $6,000,” he said.

Ethereum is currently trading $2,400, and is therefore “very, very underpriced,” Neuner noted.

However, the similarities between Bitcoin and Ethereum end there.

“I think comparing Bitcoin to Ethereum is a very bad thing…that’s like comparing gold to Amazon,” he said. “The only thing is that they’re both crypto currencies and they’re both used on blockchain but they’re two completely different things. Bitcoin is a store of value, it’s a value transfer between me and you. That’s what Bitcoin does and it does it really well. Ethereum, however, is a world supercomputer that is decentralized.”

On Dogecoin, Neuner said that the crypto that skyrocketed more than 500% in less than three days in mid-April has no intrinsic value and is a pure speculation play.

“Dogecoin is at best a meme coin. It is a useless piece of technology, which is not very secure. It was designed as a joke, it was designed as a meme. They called it a small change coin,” he said. “It was designed badly on purpose.”

Additionally, unlike Bitcoin, there isn’t a finite amount of Dogecoin as more of it can be created. Neuner compared this feature to the U.S. dollar, another currency that does not have a hard cap on supply, which he also referred to as a “meme coin.”

Dogecoin’s popularity was driven up in part by TikTokers, who see this is a kind of “freedom coin,” according to Neuner.

“What happens next? One of two things: one, it crashes, all these TikTokers get wiped out, and it’s just another one of these pump and dump schemes. Dogecoin has done [this] several times since 2017, it goes up, and then it somehow goes down. Or two, the TikTok generation actually adopts this as their cryptocurrency,” he said.