Doesn't really matter, it's all a waste on both sides because after next week comes the Olympics. All media will focus on that for 3 weeks because it's billions in ad dollars. Then there's back to school and Labor Day and then the debates. Only after that does any of it matter.
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historically it does matter.
mccain led twice - once after winning nomination with states in spring, and once when announcing palin.
10 days later, she was discovered to be less than ready, and he started falling and never recovered.
presidential polls are remarkably accurate lately. If he sees a BIGGER than mccain bump, it's encouraging. If he seees LESS, it's very troubling.