I believe that Phil won the Ironman at only 90 % of the Condition what he is able to achieve. And in his case that`s enough for most of the other Pro Bodybuilder.
If he can come between 95-100 % at the Arnolds he can win. But IŽll predict a close competition between Phil, Dexter, and Melvin.
Dexter is always good/very good, "but" where is the progress ? The last 3 Years he`s pretty much the same good Bodybuilder. And after a while even the Judges get bored, because they are looking for real visiable improvements. Phil Heath made improvements, and also Melvin Anthony who made in the last 2 Years two steps forward to be a Top-Level-Pro.
Just my opion....it will be an interesting AC this Year.