Author Topic: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..  (Read 3095 times)

225for70

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Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« on: March 04, 2011, 10:04:45 AM »


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_economy

Unemployment dips to 8.9 pct., 192K jobs added
US jobless claims drop near three year low AFP/File – A jobs sign displayed on the facade of the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington, DC. New claims for US …
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer – 1 hr 4 mins ago

WASHINGTON – Employers hired in February at the fastest pace in almost a year, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent — a nearly two-year low.

The economy added a net 192,000 jobs. Factories, professional and business services, education and health care were among the sectors that hired. Retailers, though, trimmed jobs. State and local governments, squeezed by budget gaps, slashed 30,000 jobs, the most since November. Federal government hiring was flat.

Private employers added 222,000 jobs last month, the most since April. That shows companies are feeling more confident about the economy and their own prospects. The job gains bolstered hopes that businesses will hire aggressively through the rest of the year and strengthen the economic recovery.

The unemployment rate is now at its lowest point since April 2009. It's been falling for three months, down from 9.8 percent in November, marking the sharpest three-month drop since 1983.

"These numbers can be sustained and built on," said Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors. "Businesses are finally taking some of those profits they are earning and putting them back into the work force."

The number of unemployed people dipped to 13.7 million, still nearly double the number before the recession began in December 2007.

When you include part-time workers who'd rather be working full time and people who have given up looking for work, the percentage of "underemployed" people dropped to 15.9 percent in February. That's the lowest figure in nearly two years.

The Labor Department report had little effect on investors, who had generally anticipated Friday's data. Many seemed more focused on the rise in oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 60 points in morning trading. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped to 3.52 percent, from 3.56 percent late Thursday. The yield is a widely used benchmark for mortgages and other loans.

President Barack Obama's chief economist, Austan Goolsbee, welcomed the positive news. But Goolsbee cautioned that it will take time to recoup the 7.5 million jobs wiped out by the 2007-2009 recession.

The pickup in hiring coincides with gathering strength in the broader economy.

Americans shoppers are spending more. U.S. exporters are selling more abroad. Manufacturing is growing at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. And the service sector, which employs about 90 percent of the work force, is expanding at the fastest pace in more than five years.

The 192,000 jobs added in February was a sharp improvement from a revised 63,000 job gains in January. Some of the increasing came as people resumed work, after dropping off payrolls because of bad weather in January. Still, the gains were widespread.

Factories added 33,000 jobs. Education and health care added 40,000, professional and businesses services 47,000. Leisure and hospitality added 21,000, and transportation and warehousing reported 22,000.

And construction companies created a net 33,000 jobs, though a chunk of them reflected people coming back on payrolls after January's harsh winter weather.

The number of "long-term" unemployed — people out of work for six months or more — sank to 5.99 million, a decline of 217,000 from January.

Workers' paychecks were mostly flat in February. Average hourly earning rose to $22.87 in February, up 1 cent from January. Workers have little bargaining power to demand big pay raises because the weak jobs market.

And rising gasoline prices are putting more pressure on Americans' pocketbooks. Gasoline is averaging close to $3.50 a gallon nationwide. Higher prices can force consumers to cut back spending on other things. That has the potential to slow the recovery and hiring.

Even if that scenario doesn't happen, the unemployment rate is likely to rise later this year as people — perhaps feeling more confident about their prospects to find a job — stream back into the labor market.

Unemployment rates often rise when the economy improves and people who haven't been looking for jobs start hunting again. People who aren't looking are not counted as unemployed. Some economists say the jobless rate could edge past 9 percent again.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2011, 10:07:13 AM »
Amazing what can be scammed when you take people out of the work force.   

112,000 jobs were added using the Birth Death adjustment.   

The Official UE number by the BLS is a scam.   

MCWAY

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2011, 10:13:08 AM »
At the end of 2010, unemployment was "officially" 9.8 percent

January 2011, 36,000 jobs were added.

February 2011, 192,000 jobs were added.

So, these dopes in the Obama Administration want us to believe that 228,000 jobs added in two months magically dropped unemployment from 9.8 to 8.9 percent.


Soul Crusher

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2011, 10:25:18 AM »
The fact is that labor particpation rate is at 40 year lows.  No way to spin that disaster.     

225for70

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2011, 10:28:01 AM »
Amazing what can be scammed when you take people out of the work force.   

112,000 jobs were added using the Birth Death adjustment.   

The Official UE number by the BLS is a scam.   

Oh ya...

I figured it was mostly because he rapidly decreasing "labor participation rate"





Soul Crusher

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2011, 10:34:44 AM »
Dose of truth from Zero Hedge:

Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%, Birth/Death Adjustment: +112,000

Wonder why the unemployment rate is at an artificially low 8.9%? Three simple words: Labor Force Participation. At 64.2%, it was unchanged from last month, and continues to be at a 25 year low. Should the LFP return to its 25 trendline average of 66.1%, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%. And indicatively, the Birth/Death adjustment was +112,000.

225for70

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2011, 10:52:21 AM »
Dose of truth from Zero Hedge:

Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%, Birth/Death Adjustment: +112,000

Wonder why the unemployment rate is at an artificially low 8.9%? Three simple words: Labor Force Participation. At 64.2%, it was unchanged from last month, and continues to be at a 25 year low. Should the LFP return to its 25 trendline average of 66.1%, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%. And indicatively, the Birth/Death adjustment was +112,000.


Wow..I'm watching CNN, and talking about an excellent job reports. Not a single mention of the Labor participation rate.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2011, 10:54:37 AM »
Wow..I'm watching CNN, and talking about an excellent job reports. Not a single mention of the Labor participation rate.

Thats' why I never even turn on the TV anymore.   Its a waste of time.  Pure stupidity 99% of the time. 

Stick with radio, internet, etc.     

MCWAY

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2011, 11:06:07 AM »
Dose of truth from Zero Hedge:

Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%, Birth/Death Adjustment: +112,000

Wonder why the unemployment rate is at an artificially low 8.9%? Three simple words: Labor Force Participation. At 64.2%, it was unchanged from last month, and continues to be at a 25 year low. Should the LFP return to its 25 trendline average of 66.1%, the unemployment rate would be 11.6%. And indicatively, the Birth/Death adjustment was +112,000.


Wow..I'm watching CNN, and talking about an excellent job reports. Not a single mention of the Labor participation rate.

Of course not!! They're supposed to celebrate the "good news", to trumpet Obama's policies turning the economy around the corner.

Again, how do you add 228,000 jobs in two months, yet drop unemployment by nearly a point (9.8 to 8.9)?

MCWAY

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2011, 11:07:54 AM »
Thats' why I never even turn on the TV anymore.   Its a waste of time.  Pure stupidity 99% of the time. 

Stick with radio, internet, etc.     

TV is fine, as long as you duck the Obama-nut-sack-riders (i.e. those who get thrills up their legs).

dario73

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2011, 11:13:16 AM »
A report a few months ago stated that the economy needed to add 350k jobs a month to even get below 9%. In 2 months it has added $228k. We are to somehow believe that the UE is 8.9%? That is some creative number crunching.

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2011, 11:16:06 AM »
A report a few months ago stated that the economy needed to add 350k jobs a month to even get below 9%. In 2 months it has added $228k. We are to somehow believe that the UE is 8.9%? That is some creative number crunching.

Its called taking people out of the overall labor pool. 

Only jackasses like Option F (F for FAIL), Benny, Andreisapussy, Blackass, Straw Woman, Hanging Chad, Lurkinmensbathrooms, Slapnuts, and the other left wing circus carnival think things are improving. 

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2011, 11:57:14 AM »
Its called taking people out of the overall labor pool. 

Only jackasses like Option F (F for FAIL), Benny, Andreisapussy, Blackass, Straw Woman, Hanging Chad, Lurkinmensbathrooms, Slapnuts, and the other left wing circus carnival think things are improving. 

Simply put "TK" for Team Kneepadder. It saves you some space.

 ;D

George Whorewell

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2011, 12:05:43 PM »
Ok- how is this possible when Gallup conducted a poll recently that has UE at over 10%?

Didn't someone post it yesterday?

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2011, 12:07:43 PM »
Ok- how is this possible when Gallup conducted a poll recently that has UE at over 10%?

Didn't someone post it yesterday?

Read my earlier post.   

1.  Taking people out of the labor pool. 

2.  Making upwards revisions to previous months for unknown reasons.   

Fury

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2011, 12:20:43 PM »
Ok- how is this possible when Gallup conducted a poll recently that has UE at over 10%?

Didn't someone post it yesterday?

I posted it. It probably has something to do with Gallup not being a partisan stooge of Obama.

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2011, 12:28:41 PM »
I don't know about now but recently most of the options to allow people to comment on CNN business articles have been removed . I think it had to do with all the negative comments individuals left to remind the writers of these bogus stories that they are aware its all a bunch of bullshit.

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2011, 12:43:17 PM »
Morici: Jobs Report — Don't Break Out the Champagne Just Yet
Posted By: Peter Morici | Professor, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland
| 04 Mar 2011 | 12:58 PM ET




Finally, the economy appears to be delivering jobs—adding 222,000 private sector jobs and 192,000, after losses in government are subtracted, in February.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent, even as the labor force expanded with normal population growth and a steady, albeit low by historical standards, labor force participation rate. Counting those who have left the labor force and taking part-time work but would prefer full time employment, the true unemployment rate remains about 16 percent.

It is still early to break out the champagne, because the February surge came after a weak January when only 63,000 jobs were added. March data will tell much as to whether the economy is on a sustainable path for growing jobs.

Until February, the private sector was creating few permanent jobs—most jobs were either in health care and social services, which enjoy heavy government subsidies, or were temporary services jobs. In February, those two groups added strong numbers—36,000 and 16,000 respectively. After health care and social services and temporary jobs, the “core” private sector gained 170,000 jobs.

Still this is not enough, after such a deep recession, and this is much less than what the economy is capable of accomplishing.


The economy must add 13 million private sector jobs over the next three years—360,000 each month—to bring unemployment down to 6 percent. Core private sector jobs—jobs net of health and social services and temp positions—must grow at least 300,000 a month to accomplish that goal.

President Obama’s policies are not creating conditions for businesses to hire in those numbers, net of layoffs.

Temporary tax cuts, green jobs, waivers from the onerous consequences of the health care law for unions and the states, and modest reevaluation of onerous regulations on business won’t cut it.


More fundamental reforms are required to get America back on track—collective bargaining reform, health care, energy, and trade with China must be addressed or we should all get used to our children living with us until they are 30 and older. Decent paying private sector jobs simply are not being created fast enough, because it costs too much to do business in America, and the demand for what Americans make is growing too slowly.

Labor unrest is spreading from Wisconsin, encouraged by President Obama and sustained by the AFL-CIO and other activist groups on the left. More than quick cuts in pension and health care costs, a major realignment of the role of collective bargaining in relations between state governments and unions is needed. The President is instead pushing states into higher taxes, which will drive manufacturers to China, Canada and Mexico.

The states’ pain over Medicare spending is merely the prologue to systemic breakdown that will unfold over the next five years. The health care reform law increases demand without addressing the fundamental cost issues. Americans pay at least 50 percent more to see doctors and purchase drugs, for health insurance company overhead and to support tort lawyers than do the Germans, Japanese and others. For example, with private systems of health insurance, Germany spends about 12 percent of GDP on health care, while the United States spends nearly 19. American companies are simply going to send jobs overseas rather than be compelled to bear that kind of cost disadvantage.


The $500 billion dollar trade deficit is sapping demand for what Americans make, causing growth to crawl along at 3 percent, when 4 or 5 percent is possible after a deep recession and is needed to create enough jobs.

Fixing the trade deficit comes down to oil and trade with China.

On oil: windmills and solar panels — mostly made in China — and electric cars won’t solve the oil problem. Harnessing natural gas to wider uses and drilling for more oil domestically is the only way out, but the religious aversion to practical energy solutions embraced by the Administration and many in Congress all but damn the U.S. economy to high gas prices, big import bills and slow growth.

The same applies to the veiled failure at changing China’s very damaging currency policy and doubling exports. If President Obama won’t act against China’s currency strategy and stop laying big health care and regulatory burdens on business, the U.S. economy won’t create enough jobs.

Hopefully, at some point, the facts will catch up with thinking in the White House. We have to address the world as we find it, not as we wish it would be.

Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.

© 2011 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/41905253/


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© 2011 CNBC.com

Soul Crusher

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2011, 02:14:45 PM »
David Rosenberg's Explanation Why The Real Unemployment Rate (U-3) Is 12%
ZeroHedge ^ | 3/4/2011 | Tyler Durden





Pretty much precisely what noted earlier today: "A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour."

PAYROLL REVIEW – NICE JOB, SHAME ABOUT THE PAYCHEQUE, from Gluskin Sheff

The widespread reaction to the jobs report today is uniformly positive. I think a dose of reality is really needed here. It may as well come from this pen. The headline print of +192k was in line with published estimates but following the slate of ISMs and the ADP report, the “whispered” number was closer to +250k. Of course, there were the upward revisions to the back-data that showed net gains of +58k so one could easily respond that adjusted for these, the topline did indeed meet these “whispered” estimates. The employment diffusion index jumped to a 13-year high of 68.2% from 60.1% in January, but beware of peaks and troughs in this index (i.e. it would have been a mistake to extrapolate the 17% low in this job dispersion measure at the March 2009 market trough).

Here is what I think is important: because of the winter storms, we really have to average out the past two months. So the January-February average for payrolls is +128k. Allowing for a similar reading in March that we received in February would generate an average increase for the first quarter of around 150k. That is little changed from what employment gains averaged on a monthly basis in the fourth quarter. So while we are seeing positive job growth, it is not accelerating even though we are coming off the most intense impact of the fiscal and monetary easing that was unveiled late last year. In other words, we are disappointed with what is still a lacklustre trend in net job creation, particularly in view of the peak stimulus we are currently experiencing.

What if Q1 is the peak for job growth? If you remember, we ended up with sub-3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which is about half of what we should be seeing at this stage of the cycle. And if we are generating jobs at a similar rate in the current quarter, barring a re-acceleration in productivity, growth again will be below 3% at a time when the consensus is closer to 3.5%. But more to the point — what if this represents the peak for the year? Because if there is one thing we do know, it is that this quarter contains all the incremental policy easing impact on the macro data.

What was particularly discouraging was the fact that both the wage number and the workweek were flat. Nominal wages, in fact, have been stagnant in three of the past four months. Weekly average earnings have also been flat or negative in three of the past four months. How on earth can these statistics possibly be viewed as bullish for the economy? The year-over-year-trend in average weekly earnings in the past three months has softened from 2.6% to 2.5% to 2.3% today. At the same time, it is probably reasonable to assume that surging food and fuel costs will bring headline inflation to, and possibly through, 3% in coming months. In other words, the growing risk of falling personal income in real terms, even with the positive growth in payrolls, is a glaring yellow light as far as the consumer spending outlook is concerned.

Aggregate hours worked only managed to tick up 0.2% in February after a flat January. That is total labour input — bodies and hours. So assuming a trend-like productivity performance, we are talking yet again about sub-3% GDP growth, which by itself is okay but considering the peak impact of all the fiscal and monetary steroids being administered this quarter, it is actually disappointing.

Yes, the unemployment rate dipped again to a 22-month low of 8.9% from 9.0% in January and the nearby high of 9.8% in November. This reflected a 250k risein Household employment — the third increase in a row — and a flat participation rate. A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour.

All that matters in these employment reports is what the jobs environment means for income, because workers generally spend in the real economy. With credit harder to come by, and with fiscal policy soon to become more focussed on austerity, it is the income that the labour delivers that will prove to be the critical determinant of the economic outlook. So while the “spin” may be over near-200k headline payroll gains, another dip in the headline unemployment rate, the organic income backdrop can really only be described as tentative, at best, especially in real terms as gasoline prices make their way to $4 a gallon by the time Memorial Day rolls around.

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2011, 02:16:32 PM »
doesn't matter if the number is BS. 

the middle 10% of voters decide every election.  When Obama brags "I got the UE rate down to 8.5 or 7.8 percent", it'll appear to be valid numbers to swing voters.

No opponent will take the CT route and discount the validity of the same numbers he/she will be quoting 4 years later to prove their own results ;)

Soul Crusher

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2011, 02:18:58 PM »
Yeah when obamavilles are all over the place, recordnumbers on UEI, WIC, Section 8, etc and Dear Imam is claiming a 2% UE number it will really be credible.   ;D   

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2011, 02:21:53 PM »
Yeah when obamavilles are all over the place, recordnumbers on UEI, WIC, Section 8, etc and Dear Imam is claiming a 2% UE number it will really be credible.   ;D   

most swing voters aren't poor, I reckon... cause most poor people already vote dem by rule (or anti-dem, in the trailer populace).  Their vote is decided. 

My guess is that most swing voters are middle class and have work and will believe "I inherited UE here, and thanks to my stim bill, it has dropped to this."


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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2011, 02:23:52 PM »
CNBC Rick Santelli: 'Good' Jobs Report Has Dark Side
CNBC ^ | 03/04/2011 | CBNC



Upon closer scrutiny though, there is another factor contributing to the drop that is not necessarily good news: The official size of the U.S. labor force is shrinking.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the “Labor Force Participation Rate” each month, along with a litany of other metrics that are used to give us the headline jobs number and the unemployment rate.

That ratio is currently 64.2 percent seasonally adjusted, and 63.9 percent non-seasonally adjusted, the same level as last month. Both of those percentages are currently running at 27-year lows, meaning the percentage of Americans not working or even trying to join the work force is at a near three-decade high.


(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2011, 02:29:25 PM »
the percentage of Americans not working or even trying to join the work force is at a near three-decade high.

GREAT point here that many people will overlook.

By refusing to yet declare for the 2012 GOP nomination race, the major candidates are not only able to continue to hide their fundraising efforts, but they are also purposefully hurting the economic numbers by purposefully "not working or even trying to join the work force" as POTUS.


Elfish, to say the least.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Unemployment rates at 2 year lows..
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2011, 03:25:22 PM »
James Pethokoukis
Politics and policy from inside Washington» See all analysis and opinionThe New Underclass and Barack Obama
Mar 4, 2011 10:47 EST
politics | unemployment | US Politics


http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2011/03/04/the-new-underclass-and-barack-obama


 

Drilling a bit deeper and moving beyond the 8.9 percent unemployment rate and 192,000 jobs created, here is what I found:

1.The U.S. labor force remains as small as it has been in a generation
2.More than 5 million Americans have disappeared from the job rolls
3.If the labor force was currently at 2007 levels, the unemployment rate would be a whopping 12 percent – the worst since the Great Depression.
As it is, the broader unemployment rate, which includes those who are underemployed and discouraged workers, is still an agonizing 15.9 percent. What’s more, the Federal Reserve believes that the high number of people out of work for 27 weeks or longer is creating structural unemployment. (The longer you are out of work, the harder it is to get that next job.) No wonder the Fed now believes the economy’s natural rate of unemployment has increased from a bit under 5 percent to a bit more than 7 percent.

In short, you may have a much larger pool of the long-term unemployed than is historically typical in America, something more akin of what is seen in Old Europe.

This is why it is critical to deal comprehensively with the Axis of Economic Evil: Big deficits, high taxes and onerous regulation. America must get more competitive and productive. I find the below chart from McKinsey particularly scary since it shows how much job growth is happening in unproductive areas of the US economy.