This is why I was asking. I believe this is what happens. “Russian” territory gets attacked and Putin takes the gloves off. And to anyone saying Russia is losing, the occupy 20% of Ukraine, how is that losing.
Don’t get me wrong, I think what Russia is doing is wrong. But, I don’t believe for a second they lose this war.
If one of your key justifications for invading was to stop nato expansion, has Russia really won?
If your core deeply held and stated belief was that Ukraine as a separate nation does not have a really exist and you attempt to take the whole country and fail embarrassingly to do so,are you really winning? This was his big bold legacy play and its already failed
If you now have to conscript 300,000 poor minions in an effort to hold on to the land you have scrapped out, and barely gained on in over half a year , have you really won ? Just jumping the neighbours fence and barricading yourself in their living room while they bang on the door and now see an existential threat to their livelihood is a very claused win ,even if you occupy 20% of their property. And this is different to Crimea, the scale of the initial attempts got the US etc heavily involved and made it existential for Ukraine as per above. They aren't just gonna give up, and they now have US military and intelligence, massive massive difference
I do get what you are saying , and in the non-partisan non-emotional way you have said it, in the sense that in a pure short-medium term land grab sense yes Russia has gained. But its like calling a game when you move up to the 20 yard line in the 1st half, long way to go
Yes Russian mentality is just to throw bodies at the front in wars (with some success it has to be said), but he did have a sort of understanding with the Russian populace that this wouldn't happen here, the last time this occurred was WW2 when the threat was existential to THEM and invasion of their long held land thanks to that pesky corporal.I dont think this plays out well in this age say in a years time if the conscription continues in any scale, the moms will only take so much. I recall reading somewhere with semi legit Russian polling that invasions such as Crimea raised his popularity, whereas hip pocket issues (think it was proposed pension changes or something along those lines)he took a hit, to the point he reversed. Having your family members being forced on to front lines hits home psyche on another level compared to flag waving an annexation far removed from your daily life
The west also loses too ,no really winners here except the military companies and the like
As for nukes, and escalation, see MAD
It likely grinds on well past a few Olympias, Jordan peterson meltdowns (he just had another one) and bhank mega threads, but who knows apart from no real W's
My take anyway
