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--- Quote from: loco on February 11, 2021, 02:25:32 AM ---Are you predicting this will happen for sure, in the not so near term? --- End quote --- If they print 5 trillion a year then all these numbers will be new "record highs". So I suppose not. ;) You'll be up 18% YTD in your portfolio but a loaf of bread will be $16, haha. Watson, the game is afoot. |
| loco:
--- Quote from: SOMEPARTS on February 11, 2021, 08:25:11 PM --- If they print 5 trillion a year then all these numbers will be new "record highs". So I suppose not. ;) You'll be up 18% YTD in your portfolio but a loaf of bread will be $16, haha. Watson, the game is afoot. --- End quote --- Same recycled doomsday predictions repeated decade after decade. Same crap, different day. But this time it's different, right? :) --- Quote ---The conventional wisdom among bestselling financial writers of the seventies and eighties was that unemployment and recession would get so bad that the fiscal and monetary floodgates would be thrown open to avert depression, bringing on inflation. To fight it, the Fed would slam on the brakes and throw the country into an even greater slump requiring even more stimulus, causing even worse inflation, requiring even tougher brake slamming...and around and around it would go, inflation, recession, inflation, recession, getting ever worse. The "malarial economy," Howard Ruff and others dubbed it, alternating chills and fever and, eventually, collapse. Ruff wrote How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years and (when they didn't come) Survive and Win in the Inflationary Eighties (which proved to be highly desinflamatory). Douglas Casey cashed in with Crisis Investing. Ravi Batra hit #1 in 1987 with The Great Depression of 1990 (unemployment was 5.6% in 1990), the same year James Dale Davison and William Rees-Mogg weighed in with The Great Reckoning: Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression followed by Blood in the Streets: Investment Profits in a World Gone Mad. And so it went. "But there is another scenario which should not be dismissed out hand," I wrote in this space in 1983, "unaccustomed though we've become to improvement: That this decade, if we keep our wits about us, could become what Paul Volcker has called the mirror image of the last one: falling energy prices, falling inflation, falling interest rates, rising productivity, rising real wages, rising employment. I make no secret of being partial to the optimistic scenario. I think we've laid a technological base that places us, potentially at least, on the brink of unparalleled prosperity." And indeed the decade that followed worked out much that way. (One indicator: The Dow quadrupled.) And the generally positive trends continued well beyond 1993. Seven years later, in 2000, unemployment was 4%, the Dow had nearly tripled its quadruple, our National Debt had been shrinking relative to the size of the economy as a whole. We faced challenges, certainly, and had kicked cans down the road. But things were looking pretty good. Then came 2001-2008. But then came 2009-2015, so things are again looking pretty good. --- End quote --- Andrew Tobias, The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need, Publication date : April 26, 2016 https://www.amazon.com/Only-Investment-Guide-Youll-Ever/dp/0544781937/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=The+Only+Investment+Guide+You%27ll+Ever+Need&qid=1614272995&sr=8-1 |
| SOMEPARTS:
--- Quote from: loco on February 25, 2021, 08:59:45 AM ---Same recycled doomsday predictions repeated decade after decade. Same crap, different day. But this time it's different, right? :) Andrew Tobias, The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need, Publication date : April 26, 2016 https://www.amazon.com/Only-Investment-Guide-Youll-Ever/dp/0544781937/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=The+Only+Investment+Guide+You%27ll+Ever+Need&qid=1614272995&sr=8-1 --- End quote --- Hmmm...so, they've printed 5 trillion in one year and shut down everything previously? I must have missed that. Your faith in central planning is commendable, comrade. That's where we are. |
| loco:
--- Quote from: SOMEPARTS on February 25, 2021, 09:53:31 PM --- Hmmm...so, they've printed 5 trillion in one year and shut down everything previously? I must have missed that. Your faith in central planning is commendable, comrade. That's where we are. --- End quote --- Sure, this time it's different. I have no faith in central planning. I just know history and I'm not susceptible to, or allow my future plans to be influenced by fear mongering, doomsday predictions, and pessimism. :) --- Quote ---As many panicked at our national debt at the end of the war, a 1945 article in The Wall Street Journal was prescient. “There is little likelihood that the national debt will be reduced substantially during the next generation,” it read. “This means that debt management rather than debt reduction is the important problem before the Treasury in the coming years.” Same thing today. When people say, “We’re leaving this debt for our kids and grandkids to repay.” Well … probably not. This isn’t a mortgage that has to be paid in full by a specific date. Without repaying a cent of the debt, its burden could easily be less in another generation than it is today. --- End quote --- https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/who-pays-for-this/ |
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