Author Topic: 2022 Midterm Elections  (Read 15161 times)

Dos Equis

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2022 Midterm Elections
« on: July 06, 2021, 10:47:11 AM »
If history serves as a guide, Republicans will take the House and keep the Senate.  One of the most vulnerable Senate seats is Warnock in Georgia.  Not sure if Herschel will run, but here is an early look by the Trafalgar Group.  They have been spot on for two elections now. 

Georgia 2022 Senate

TOTAL
Herschel Walker 47.7%
Raphael Warnock 45.5%
Another Party 2.5%
Undecided 4.3%

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/insider-advantage-gasen2021-poll/


Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2021, 07:08:31 PM »
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022
By Simone Pathe, CNN
July 5, 2021
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/05/politics/2022-senate-race-rankings-july/index.html

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2021, 11:21:06 AM »
Democrats face these major headwinds in 2022 elections
by W. James Antle III, Politics Editor |
July 13, 2021

History and a handful of issues threaten the Democrats’ narrow congressional majorities in next year’s midterm elections.

Even though President Joe Biden’s job approval ratings remain solid if unspectacular, standing at 52.6% in the RealClearPolitics polling average and 51.3% in FiveThirtyEight’s, the first midterm election has tended to go against the president’s party since the 1930s. But Democrats are facing major headwinds beyond past precedent as they seek to hold on to their 50-50 split in the Senate — only Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote gives them control — and nine-vote margin over Republicans in the House.

Democrats lost seats in the House last year as Biden rolled up 51.4% of the national popular vote and took the Senate only by sweeping both Georgia runoff elections in January. Since taking unified control of the elected branches of the federal government, several problems have emerged that could make 2022 even more difficult — including some familiar ones that set back Democrats for a generation after the 1970s.

Rising crime

The drop in violent crime that began in the 1990s appears to be coming to an end. In fact, it may have been over in 2014. Homicides are spiking in major cities, and gun deaths reached their highest total in two decades last year.

A recent poll found that 54% consider violent crime a major crisis, while another 37% view it as a major problem short of a crisis, both greater than the percentages who say the same about the pandemic. Only 9% said crime was a minor problem or not one at all, the smallest percentage of any of the 14 issues tested in the poll.

This has historically been a difficult issue for Democrats, although the above poll does show the public trusts the party on crime right now. But top Democratic operatives believe causes like “defund the police” hurt them against Republicans last year, despite Biden’s attempts to disavow the movement. The GOP is poised to seize on continued violence, which has traditionally been a winning formula.

“We now have 24/7 news, so that even people who are not affected by rising crime may feel affected,” said a policing researcher at a conservative think tank.

Inflation

Consumer prices have seen their biggest year-over-year increase since 2008 as even some Democratic economists, such as former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, worry about massive new spending overheating the economy. A New York Federal Reserve Bank survey found inflation expectations hitting a new high.

An Economist/YouGov poll also found that 42% of adults consider prices of goods and services to be the most important economic indicator, compared to 25% who picked unemployment and jobs reports. This is a stunning reversal from the same numbers in January.

Former President Jimmy Carter can tell Democrats what kind of impact inflation can have on their electoral fortunes. “Aside from the structural issues like redistricting, which is a massive hurdle for them in the House, inflation looms over their prospects in a massive way,” said GOP strategist Matt Gorman, a former communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “It's essentially a tax on the middle class. Combine that with actual taxes they want to raise, and you have a recipe for an uphill climb in 2022.”

Border crisis

Shortly after Biden took office, a migration surge overwhelmed federal authorities at the border. Apprehensions were higher in February than in January, higher in March than in February, higher in April than in March, and higher in May than in April. By March, the number of people attempting to enter the country illegally hit a 20-year high.

While conceding their policies offered “hope” to migrants that had been missing for the past four years, the Biden White House noted that the surge had been building in the final months of the previous administration. But the numbers are now worse, and there has even been a new uptick in migrant children five months into the Biden administration.

Consequently, some of Biden’s lowest job approval ratings concern his handling of immigration and the border. A late June Fox News poll in which 53% approved of Biden’s performance overall concluded that just 41% approved of how he was doing on immigration, compared to 54% who disapproved.

A Harvard/Harris poll found that 43% consider illegal immigration a serious problem, and another 37% labeled it a somewhat serious problem. Immigration ranked as the third most important issue behind jobs and the economy, followed by the pandemic in this survey.

Wokeness

From the backlash against the teaching of critical race theory in public schools to polling on politically vocal companies, Republicans are hopeful that today’s censorious liberals can be a winning campaign issue for them.

Some Democratic strategists agree, with longtime Bill Clinton adviser James Carville calling wokeness a “problem” and the party’s “kryptonite.” “It’s hard to talk to anybody today — and I talk to lots of people in the Democratic Party — who doesn’t say this,” he told Vox. “But they don’t want to say it out loud because they’ll get clobbered or canceled.” Democratic data guru David Shor determined in his 2020 autopsy report that this was among a cluster of issues that drove conservative-leaning nonwhite voters, especially Hispanics, away from the party last November.

Small majorities

These issues aside, the Democrats simply don’t have many seats to spare. Republicans added 52 House seats in the first Clinton midterm in 1994 and 63 during President Barack Obama’s initial midterm in 2010. Republicans experienced a net gain of nine Senate seats in Obama’s second midterm in 2014.

This time, the GOP doesn’t need a wave election. A net gain of one Senate seat and seven House seats would be sufficient for the majorities. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report estimates Republicans could pick up three to four House seats from redistricting alone.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/politics/democratic-headwinds-midterm-elections

Howard

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2021, 03:23:37 PM »
If history serves as a guide, Republicans will take the House and keep the Senate.  One of the most vulnerable Senate seats is Warnock in Georgia.  Not sure if Herschel will run, but here is an early look by the Trafalgar Group.  They have been spot on for two elections now. 

Georgia 2022 Senate

TOTAL
Herschel Walker 47.7%
Raphael Warnock 45.5%
Another Party 2.5%
Undecided 4.3%

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/insider-advantage-gasen2021-poll/

Good post and topic.

I've said for years, that Herschel should get into Ga politics.
Around here he enjoys God like status , especially with the older crowd that votes in higher %.

His endorsement for the two republican senators in the recent special Ga Sen election made a difference.
In fact, he made a big difference  in rural areas during the presidential race.
I suspect Biden would have won by 100,000 or more votes instead of 11,600  *if Heschel didn't back Trump .

In nearby AL, football  Coach Tommy Tuberville won his senate race .
So, nobody should underestimate this kind of appeal.
Most think the only guy who'd have beaten Tuberville is Alabama coach, Nik Sabin.

Now, I'm not too sure that Herschel could beat Warnock in a Ga senate race.
Rev Warnock's status and respect is pretty lofty among anyone who'd vote for him in Ga.

Warnock would bury Herschel on a debate stage and is a more skilled politician.
However, Herschel would draw a lot more rural white voters at a campaign barb-b-cue. ;)

In that light, it all comes down to voter turn out.
Right now, I suspect Warnock would get a better turn out then Herschel.
BUT, who knows? Trump got a better turn out in 2016 and defeated Hildabeast, so WTF.


Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2021, 05:04:27 PM »
Tim Scott’s eye popping 2022 fundraising grabs 2024 attention
Your weekly look at the latest developments, buzz, and speculation in the next race for the White House
By Paul Steinhauser | Fox News
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tim-scotts-eye-popping-2022-fundraising-grabs-2024-attention

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2021, 05:55:17 PM »
The threat November 2022 poses to Biden
Opinion by Julian Zelizer
July 25, 2021
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/25/opinions/biden-midterms-political-threat-zelizer/index.html

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2021, 02:15:35 PM »
All the cities with skyrocketing crime are run by Democrats.  Coincidence?

Next victims of rising crime? Democrats in 2022 midterms
BY BERNARD GOLDBERG, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 07/28/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/564845-next-victims-of-rising-crime-democrats-in-2022-midterms

The Scott

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2021, 07:59:19 PM »
All the cities with skyrocketing crime are run by Democrats.  Coincidence?

Next victims of rising crime? Democrats in 2022 midterms
BY BERNARD GOLDBERG, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 07/28/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/564845-next-victims-of-rising-crime-democrats-in-2022-midterms

Not at all,  brother.  Stooopid begets crime and Democucks are beyond stoooopid.  It is my hope that they lose everything and more that they have stolen and are virtually tarred and feather at the polls.  They are evile.  And "they" includes the cucks here and even from my family.  They are traitors to our Constitution and the Founding Fathers.  They are without honor and are cucks because they desire to watch while our Nation is screwed by filth.  Fuck you all you filthy traitorous pieces of shit.

Primemuscle

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2021, 08:58:33 AM »
As of July 29, 2021, the U.S. economy grew 1.6 percent in the second quarter, returning to prepandemic size. If this continues, it will definitely impact the mid-term elections. On an annualized basis, second-quarter growth was 6.5 percent. People support a growing economy and those responsible for it, whether directly or indirectly.   

Primemuscle

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2021, 09:19:39 AM »
$1 Trillion Infrastructure Deal Scales Senate Hurdle With Bipartisan Vote. The vote was a breakthrough after weeks of wrangling among White House officials and senators in both parties, clearing the way for action on a top priority for President Biden. Great start, still has a ways to go before we start to rebuild America's crumbling bridges and highways, etc.




Body-Buildah

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2021, 09:23:43 AM »
As of July 29, 2021, the U.S. economy grew 1.6 percent in the second quarter, returning to prepandemic size. If this continues, it will definitely impact the mid-term elections. On an annualized basis, second-quarter growth was 6.5 percent. People support a growing economy and those responsible for it, whether directly or indirectly.

Only demturdz "allow" closed businesses to open again and call it "economic growth"...   ::)

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2021, 12:30:10 AM »
Harris's bad polls trigger Democratic worries
BY HANNA TRUDO AND AMIE PARNES - 07/29/21
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/565336-harriss-bad-polls-trigger-democratic-worries

chaos

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2021, 04:11:51 PM »
Only demturdz "allow" closed businesses to open again and call it "economic growth"...   ::)
Right? And the media blasts this news publicly like the dummycrats are some sort of heroes for giving Americans the privilege of working.  ::)

Harris's bad polls trigger Democratic worries
BY HANNA TRUDO AND AMIE PARNES - 07/29/21
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/565336-harriss-bad-polls-trigger-democratic-worries
Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't that broad in last place during her pathetic attempt at running? She was chosen for VP simply because of her gender and race. ;D ;D
Liar!!!!Filt!!!!

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2021, 10:15:49 PM »
Right? And the media blasts this news publicly like the dummycrats are some sort of heroes for giving Americans the privilege of working.  ::)
Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't that broad in last place during her pathetic attempt at running? She was chosen for VP simply because of her gender and race. ;D ;D

She got 844 votes.  Total. 

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2021, 11:26:56 AM »
Release of Detailed 2020 Census Data Sets the Stage for 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections
MICHAEL PATRICK LEAHY
13 Aug 2021
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/08/13/release-of-detailed-2020-census-data-sets-the-stage-for-2022-midterm-congressional-elections/

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2021, 09:53:19 PM »
Democrats Bracing For GOP House Takeover in 2022 Amid Biden’s Afghanistan Crisis
August 30, 2021
https://conservativebrief.com/dems-bracing-49902/?utm_source=CB&utm_medium=DJD

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2021, 11:16:57 PM »
CNN Poll: Democrats’ Hold over Congress Has Grown Increasingly Fragile
KATHERINE HAMILTON
12 Sep 2021

By far-left CNN’s estimates, congressional Democrats are not in very good standing for the 2022 midterm elections.

According to a survey released on Sunday, registered voters are almost equally inclined to vote for Republicans and Democrats — a far departure from polls of CNN’s past.

When asked, “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” 45 percent of registered voters chose a Democrat candidate and 44 percent chose a Republican candidate.

Just last year from October 23-26, a CNN poll found that 54 percent would vote for a Democrat candidate and 42 percent would vote for a Republican.

The poll surveying 2,119 people was conducted on Aug. 3-Sept. 7, 2021, which includes a span of time before President Joe Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 2.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

By other estimates, many voters believe Republicans will retake the House and potentially the Senate in 2022.

Sixty percent of voters think it is somewhat likely that “Republicans will pick up the five seats they need to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year,” according to a Rasmussen poll released in July.

An August Punchbowl News poll found that less than half of Democrat senior Capitol Hill aides, 48 percent, believe Democrats can keep the House in the 2022 midterms — the first time a majority of Democrat aides felt this way.

Since 2020, Democrats have overseen several crises, including rising crime, inflation, the worst immigration surge in decades, and a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan which led to the deaths of 13 U.S. servicemembers — all issues which most voters are extremely concerned about moving into the midterms.

Notably, CNN changed its polling methodology, which Breitbart News previously questioned as an attempt to “juice” President Joe Biden’s floundering ratings. The change went into effect on Friday.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/09/12/cnn-democrats-hold-congress-grown-increasingly-fragile/

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2021, 11:05:44 AM »
Biden could lose 41 House seats, bad as Trump
by Paul Bedard, Washington Secrets Columnist |   | September 20, 2021
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/biden-could-lose-41-house-seats-bad-as-trump

SOMEPARTS

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2021, 08:11:28 PM »
Some of you have a lot more faith in the "voting system" than I do.

TheGrinch

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2021, 10:43:46 PM »
100% Democrats gain even more ground in 2022


voting is useless.... don't know why you keep expecting things to be different this time



Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2021, 05:43:58 PM »
Progressive data analyst warns Democrats are in deep trouble for the next decade
JOHN SEXTON Oct 08, 2021
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2021/10/08/progressive-data-analyst-warns-democrats-are-in-deep-trouble-for-the-next-decade-n421152

TheGrinch

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2021, 06:18:18 PM »
ROFL @ Voting...


oh... to be young and ignorant again......




Your leaders are installed... wake the fck up





.

Dos Equis

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2021, 09:46:33 AM »
Poll: Voters Have ‘Biden Remorse,’ Republicans Lead in 85 Battleground Congressional Districts
KATHERINE HAMILTON
26 Oct 2021
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/26/poll-voters-have-biden-remorse-republicans-lead-in-85-battleground-congressional-districts/

TheGrinch

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2021, 10:15:02 AM »
Poll: Voters Have ‘Biden Remorse,’ Republicans Lead in 85 Battleground Congressional Districts
KATHERINE HAMILTON
26 Oct 2021
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/10/26/poll-voters-have-biden-remorse-republicans-lead-in-85-battleground-congressional-districts/

wont make a bit of difference imo....  TPTB will install whomever they want as they've already proven they can

Soul Crusher

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Re: 2022 Midterm Elections
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2021, 07:24:24 AM »
Let the massacre begin!