Federal Reserve - 0.25% rate rise today 03-22-22 from the Fed

[Mayday]

You will get +0.25% and you will be happy.

Nothing in April. Then a final 0.25% in May just to remind the plebs that we are tightening.

Now get ready to YOLO 100x

[Irongrip400]

Why are we about to YOLO?

[Antonio fella]

alhamdulillah

PUMP AND DUMP
DUMP AND PUMP

[Mayday]

Why are we about to YOLO?

Because ‘Muh QE’

The market is looking for a cut in July. It thinks 0.25% today so if that happens the market assumes cuts in July are correct and assumes masses of QE is coming.

[Flexacon]

JPowell seemed really nervous and was over explaining everything.

Liquidity is gonna drain again from the markets. Prices could remain stable or even go up for a while, but then a violent dump if something breaks or a slow but prolonged drop on bad data and recession.

Bull market is a long way away 

[Antonio fella]

Xi Jinping back double biceps and GAME OVER BABY!

[Thin Lizzy]

That the  financial media goes on endlessly about the Fed, should tell you that spending mental energy on this shit is not gonna make you money.  Hope this helps.

[Thin Lizzy]

Think about all the time and energy spent by people who think that guessing the actions of a central planning agency is gonna make them money,  and the end result is that the market is exactly where is was in May of last year.

[dunkin donuts]

That the  financial media goes on endlessly about the Fed, should tell you that spending mental energy on this shit is not gonna make you money.  Hope this helps.

indeed, keeping up with bodybuilding media is a way smarter approach to stay on top of current events and trends

[obsidian]

Why are we about to YOLO?

He's being sarcastic.

[Mayday]

JPowell seemed really nervous and was over explaining everything.

Liquidity is gonna drain again from the markets. Prices could remain stable or even go up for a while, but then a violent dump if something breaks or a slow but prolonged drop on bad data and recession.

Bull market is a long way away 

So let’s layout timespan and decline vs all other major moves the past 50yrs.

Current move would be 8 months from peak to bottom (-28%). If one were to say there is a second leg down then we would consider April to be month 15 and compare to those longer timelines below.

How do you like your odds?

*2022 took 8 months to bottom (-28%)
*2018 took 3 months to bottom (-20%)
*2020 pandemic took 2 months to bottom (-35%)
*GFC took 15 months top to bottom (-58%)
*1970 drop took 17 months —> last leg down in months 16-17 (-37%)
*1981 drop took 21 months —> last leg down in months 16-21 (-28%)
*1973 drop took 21 months —> large drops from month 10+ (-53%)
*Dotcom took 22 months top to bottom —> 2nd leg down month 12 then in month 21 (-49%)

Looking at the list I think we could agree we are in the zone for either a

[Humble Narcissist]

Lots of people going to be working till 80.

[Mayday]

Think about all the time and energy spent by people who think that guessing the actions of a central planning agency is gonna make them money,  and the end result is that the market is exactly where is was in May of last year.

Did 2.5x from when I bought 9 months ago and I sold to get the profit in cash for my next entry. Even posted here on my entry and started bullposting.

It’s not a guessing game if you have modelled rate moves and inflation. I already had 5.33% as my guidance for peak in May 2023. I have First cut best case November 2023.

Market can chop all it wants. When BTC is heading towards 35k sidelines people are going to vomit..
 
 Is it coincidence that just as banks collapse and liquidity is flooding in that crypto rallies 👀

[Flexacon]

Think about all the time and energy spent by people who think that guessing the actions of a central planning agency is gonna make them money,  and the end result is that the market is exactly where is was in May of last year.

If you're in cash ($1,000,000) for 2 years and lets say CPI is at 10% for both those years, then after 2 years your real purchasing power has dropped to $825,000 equivalent to 2 years ago

Lets say after 2 years you then catch the bottom of the stock market and put your $1,000,000 back in (CPI for year 3 is is 5%) You need the stock market to rally 30% in a year just for your purchasing power from 3 years ago to get you back to equal. And that's only IF you catch the bottom.

If you want to protect your wealth, then you can't just sit everything out and wait in cash for too long.

[SOMEPARTS]

Because ‘Muh QE’

The market is looking for a cut in July. It thinks 0.25% today so if that happens the market assumes cuts in July are correct and assumes masses of QE is coming.

They are either "worried" about inflation or they aren't. Any QE would signal they aren't. We are due for a double recession/depression after artificially propping this bull up for a decade. We need a depression for society to get back to normal.

[Flexacon]

So let’s layout timespan and decline vs all other major moves the past 50yrs.

Current move would be 8 months from peak to bottom (-28%). If one were to say there is a second leg down then we would consider April to be month 15 and compare to those longer timelines below.

How do you like your odds?

*2022 took 8 months to bottom (-28%)
*2018 took 3 months to bottom (-20%)
*2020 pandemic took 2 months to bottom (-35%)
*GFC took 15 months top to bottom (-58%)
*1970 drop took 17 months —> last leg down in months 16-17 (-37%)
*1981 drop took 21 months —> last leg down in months 16-21 (-28%)
*1973 drop took 21 months —> large drops from month 10+ (-53%)
*Dotcom took 22 months top to bottom —> 2nd leg down month 12 then in month 21 (-49%)

Looking at the list I think we could agree we are in the zone for either a

GFC type crash looks to have been avoided.

Big tech is forming a new AI driven bubble (Crypto is bubbling too, some were calling it an echo bubble) If the tech bubble pops as AI is probably years away from being profitable then that's another leg down which might look like Dotcom

Check also 46 to 49 for what a soft landing might look like

[Mayday]

GFC type crash looks to have been avoided.

Big tech is forming a new AI driven bubble (Crypto is bubbling too, some were calling it an echo bubble) If the tech bubble pops as AI is probably years away from being profitable then that's another leg down which might look like Dotcom

Check also 46 to 49 for what a soft landing might look like

Good point.

Ok let’s add the major declines further back and compare to the 2022 move.

First thing is the decline in 2022 in the span of time I think aligns well to history for total moves or moves that had 2+ legs down. In other words, i think we can agree 2022 looks like it either completed a total move or completed a first leg down. We are not in limbo.

Cutting through the fog you would pick 1946-49 and 70-73-81 because these are the only declines during an inflationary cycle of rates, money supply, shortages and crazy economic growth. In saying that, neither fit the same rate movement cycle as today. We were in decline during rate increases whereas the other examples happened at rate peaks.

81 model we don’t look anything like it so remove that
73 model timing is off so remove that aswell

70 model is in play yes and timing could be on par if we consider rates about to peak and confusion on the consumer front when rate cuts don’t happen in H2. My bias is towards this one as the Fed backstopped banks therefore it’s consumers on the hook to trigger a further leg down. We will have a landing of some sort in H2 of this year IMO.

46 model is in play particularly as this was a period of strong economic transition post war.

In short if it’s 1970 style the S&P tags 3,000 in Q3 this year. If it’s 1946 style the S&P 3,350in 2025.

*2022 took 8 months to bottom (-28%)

*2018 took 3 months to bottom (-20%)
*2020 pandemic took 2 months to bottom (-35%)
*1962 took 6 months to bottom (-28)
*1966 took 8 months to bottom (-24%)
*GFC took 15 months top to bottom (-58%)
*1970 drop took 17 months —> last leg down in months 16-17 (-37%)
*1981 drop took 21 months —> last leg down in months 16-21 (-28%)
*1973 drop took 21 months —> large drops from month 10+ (-53%)
*Dotcom took 22 months top to bottom —> 2nd leg down month 12 then in month 21 (-49%)
*1946-49 took 37 months to bottom —> 1st leg 7 months -23% then final bottom 37 months -25%
*1937 took 63 months to bottom —> 1st leg 10 months -45% 2nd leg 43 months -57%

Looking at the list I think we could agree we are in the zone for either a
[/quote]

[Thin Lizzy]

If you're in cash ($1,000,000) for 2 years and lets say CPI is at 10% for both those years, then after 2 years your real purchasing power has dropped to $825,000 equivalent to 2 years ago

Lets say after 2 years you then catch the bottom of the stock market and put your $1,000,000 back in (CPI for year 3 is is 5%) You need the stock market to rally 30% in a year just for your purchasing power from 3 years ago to get you back to equal. And that's only IF you catch the bottom.

If you want to protect your wealth, then you can't just sit everything out and wait in cash for too long.

No argument that cash is a bad long term investment. I just don’t see how knocking your brains out about the Fed does any good. Better to just look at what the market is actually doing and tune everything else out.

[Flexacon]

Ok let’s add the major declines further back and compare to the 2022 move.

FYI as much as I like looking at previous bear markets, my default is set as this one will  do it's own thing and won't look exactly like any of the others.

My other default is that we will get a recession and we'll go lower (I'm beautifully positioned for that). Also we won't go below covid crash bounce prices as longs from back there have no reason to become sellers.

I like a DotCom repeat for now though. Next round of anaemic earnings should wake people up and they become sellers. Otherwise 46-49 but in a shorter timeframe. They are still in quiet a strong position to pull off a (semi) soft landing despite what people might think. They potentially still have quite a lot of control thanks to liquidity they can pump in from RRP.

[Flexacon]

No argument that cash is a bad long term investment. I just don’t see how knocking your brains out about the Fed does any good. Better to just look at what the market is actually doing and tune everything else out.

It's just what the market is right now. Yellen "misspeaking" dumped the market 2%. Unexpected FED numbers and guidance could dump it 10 to20%. Look what happened after Jackson hole.

If you hold a position you have to pay attention to these things now. Almost nothing is actually trading on merit or the way they really should. It's a clown market.

[Thin Lizzy]

It's just what the market is right now. Yellen "misspeaking" dumped the market 2%. Unexpected FED numbers and guidance could dump it 10 to20%. Look what happened after Jackson hole.

If you hold a position you have to pay attention to these things now. Almost nothing is actually trading on merit or the way they really should. It's a clown market.

And the move got retraced the following morning. These things like the Fed, Unemployment reports and CPI yada yada are just rationalizations for price movements. The market makers don’t give a fuck one way or the other. It’s all about the technical position of the market.

[Flexacon]

And the move got retraced the following morning. These things like the Fed, Unemployment reports and CPI yada yada are just rationalizations for price movements. The market makers don’t give a fuck one way or the other. It’s all about the technical position of the market.

Retraced after her second statement to clarify what she actually meant.

Market makers will always be in charge, but this particular period of time has something that has almost never been seen before, and that's 0DTE options contracts coming in en masse and moving the markets. Even market makers are having to temporarily take a back seat when those come in. Those positions are predominately trading on the things you mention and it must be profitable for them as it's been going on for a while now.

There are also people killing it right now watching and waiting for those contracts to come in. I've seen a guy make 28 out 30 profitable trades on this. I've done pretty well myself catching a good number of these moves. You have people waiting to trade the policy news/data and then you have people waiting to trade on those trade flows. That's part of the reason why loads of people are paying more attention to this stuff than is typically worth it.

[Mayday]

FYI as much as I like looking at previous bear markets, my default is set as this one will  do it's own thing and won't look exactly like any of the others.

My other default is that we will get a recession and we'll go lower (I'm beautifully positioned for that). Also we won't go below covid crash bounce prices as longs from back there have no reason to become sellers.

I like a DotCom repeat for now though. Next round of anaemic earnings should wake people up and they become sellers. Otherwise 46-49 but in a shorter timeframe. They are still in quiet a strong position to pull off a (semi) soft landing despite what people might think. They potentially still have quite a lot of control thanks to liquidity they can pump in from RRP.

I think we will see something in the second half of this year but still at 3,500 bottom we were going close to 20% up from the lows since then so that's a strong performance in a short time.

For earnings we will likely try and cover it with price rises and launch new skus for volume. Generally that's the path consumer business takes. Then it blows up the inventory metrics and a shitstorm rains down but by then the people who fucked it have left. The mugs game is what i do which is the cleanup. Way better to be the type who fuck everything because you get the bonuses and then walk away.

People still buying cars and shit at the shops. Liquidity is there from consumers. Given banks are bankstopped this is a pure play on waiting for consumer and tech to feel the pain and take the fall.

My miner stocks finally started to move this week and i'm in positive territory now. Looked like i had made a mistake a few weeks back but it's turned good. Hoping for +10% move before i exit. Basically watching the DXY and think 0.96 could be the next stop which should get me there. Money is starting to move out of the US.

[Flexacon]

I think we will see something in the second half of this year but still at 3,500 bottom we were going close to 20% up from the lows since then so that's a strong performance in a short time.

For earnings we will likely try and cover it with price rises and launch new skus for volume. Generally that's the path consumer business takes. Then it blows up the inventory metrics and a shitstorm rains down but by then the people who fucked it have left. The mugs game is what i do which is the cleanup. Way better to be the type who fuck everything because you get the bonuses and then walk away.

People still buying cars and shit at the shops. Liquidity is there from consumers. Given banks are bankstopped this is a pure play on waiting for consumer and tech to feel the pain and take the fall.

My miner stocks finally started to move this week and i'm in positive territory now. Looked like i had made a mistake a few weeks back but it's turned good. Hoping for +10% move before i exit. Basically watching the DXY and think 0.96 could be the next stop which should get me there. Money is starting to move out of the US.

I was looking into miners and what I found is that in bear markets when things like gold are going up, miners in comparison don't do as well. You're basically better off buying spot rather than trying to get exposure elsewhere.

Also wanted to show you a chart showing what year in a 4 year term of the presidency markets tend to crash. Can't find the chart right now, but in the 3rd year (this is Bidens 3rd) markets have never crashed and have generally ended the year Green

https://money.cnn.com/2015/01/07/investing/stocks-markets-worst-start-since-2008/index.html

[Mayday]

I was looking into miners and what I found is that in bear markets when things like gold are going up, miners in comparison don't do as well. You're basically better off buying spot rather than trying to get exposure elsewhere.

Also wanted to show you a chart showing what year in a 4 year term of the presidency markets tend to crash. Can't find the chart right now, but in the 3rd year (this is Bidens 3rd) markets have never crashed and have generally ended the year Green

https://money.cnn.com/2015/01/07/investing/stocks-markets-worst-start-since-2008/index.html

It’s in a fund for retirement so there are only certain things I have access to. Can’t do spot but I do miners who at least get a benefit. We got the tap off 19.50 for XAG so I’m assuming the bottom is in and if we see the DXY have a slow bleed A break above 25 will give me some confidence in the move.

 I took position pretty early on this but it’s based around today feeling like money is nervous but we aren’t actually collapsing. Exact same shit when I played silver in 2011 and did super well. Everyone was nervous, post GFC fears of the market going to crash, CDS going apeshit, banks fears. Contagion worries saw outflows of US as everyone pulled out to stabilise the Euro system.

That’s interesting about the US presidency. I can imagine a few factors as to why but I really don’t know what would be say the top 2 key factors. Is it opponent isn’t decided and current regime starts to unveil fiscal packages?

There is a chart doing the rounds again which is the S&P crashes when the Fed pivots. No issue there but the market is expecting rate cuts in July vs Fed in February 2024. Plus in addition equities are thinking cuts in July means QE and are trying to front run everything.