MLB AL MVP. who ya got?

[blinky]

i know everybody talks that Trout is the automatic. But if you look at the stats right now...Donaldson lead in basically EVERY offensive category.

average  Donaldson .301
              Trout .294


HR  Donaldson  39( hit 40th tonight)
      Trout  40

RBI  Donaldson  120
        Trout 87

Runs Scored  Donaldson  117
                    Trout 97

Slug %  Donaldson  .574
             Trout .587


I dont get to see a lot of Angels games...but Donaldson has been a highlight reel all season on the field.

thoughts?

[Grape Ape]

i know everybody talks that Trout is the automatic. But if you look at the stats right now...Donaldson lead in basically EVERY offensive category.

average  Donaldson .301
              Trout .294


HR  Donaldson  39( hit 40th tonight)
      Trout  40

RBI  Donaldson  120
        Trout 87

Runs Scored  Donaldson  117
                    Trout 97

Slug %  Donaldson  .574
             Trout .587


I dont get to see a lot of Angels games...but Donaldson has been a highlight reel all season on the field.

thoughts?

So...the general consensus I've heard around the baseball-o-sphere leads towards Donaldson, so I don't think the prevailing thought is Trout is automatic.

But you say Donaldson leads in almost every offensive category, and I disagree with that if you look at it through a more modern view.

Donaldson's slash line (OBP / SLG / OPS) is .371 / .574 / .984

Trout's is .397 / .587 / .984

So right off the bat, Trout has a higher OBP and Slugging %......and you also posted that Trout is leading in HR, albeit by a small margin.

Donaldson is leading in batting average.  This stat is inherently flawed, because it gives the same value to HR / 3b / 2b as it does to singles, and those hits are more valuable than a single.  Batting average also ignores walks, which are valuable as well.  And the lead is negligible anyway - if you pro-rate Trout's 540 AB vs Donaldson's 589 the difference in the amount of hits that would separate them is  4 total hits (actually 3.5).  Trout gets on base more and has higher production....much more valuable.

As for the RBI lead, that is a product of opportunity, as the batter can't control who gets on base ahead of them.  Donaldson plays on the number one offense in baseball (by far) so he's going to have many more people on base when he's up.

If you get into some advanced metrics:

OPS+ (this attempts to equalize the stat for variables - like adjusting for the park someone plays in - someone in Fenway or Coors, SHOULD hit better, for example) 100 is league average

Trout OPS+ 175
Donaldson OPS+ 157

wRC+ (attempts to measure a player's value on how many runs they "Created"...adjusted for park)

Trout wRC+  171
Donaldson wRC+ 156

WAR (an attempt at at "all encompassing" stat, including defensive metrics of which I am NOT a fan - many flaws, even admitted by the creator of the stat......really doesn't show decent value until a three year sample)

Donaldson  8.2
Trout 8.1

Very close, but Donaldson beats Trout because of the defensive metrics if you look at the splits.


My conclusion:

Both players are having insane seasons.  I think the writers will give it to Donaldson since Toronto is the hottest/best team in baseball in the second half.

But I think Trout was robbed in his first two years.....and I LOVE dynasties, and think it would have been the greatest thing if a player won the MVP in his first four seasons.  It would be unprecedented, but I truly think Trout deserves it.  It's only been four years and longevity is key, but he is on track to be one of the greatest players ever.

I think they are both worthy, but Trout is just a bit better this year.  He's going to lose because he doesn't play on as good a team as Donaldson, and I think that's wrong.  Just like when Cabrerra won the MVP when Trout had a better year, but the writers determined a rare event was more valuable, when Trout put up equal/better numbers, and was stellar in defense and baserunning too, whereas Cabrerra could barely run and was a butcher in the field.

Sportswriters are getting better (gave Felix the Cy when he deserved it, even with low wins) but they're still not there yet.

[tom joad]

i know everybody talks that Trout is the automatic. But if you look at the stats right now...Donaldson lead in basically EVERY offensive category.

average  Donaldson .301
              Trout .294


HR  Donaldson  39( hit 40th tonight)
      Trout  40

RBI  Donaldson  120
        Trout 87

Runs Scored  Donaldson  117
                    Trout 97

Slug %  Donaldson  .574
             Trout .587


I dont get to see a lot of Angels games...but Donaldson has been a highlight reel all season on the field.

thoughts?

blinky, you're looking at the traditional stats that influence many of the "old school" baseball writers/voters.
(and, yeah, those numbers on the back of a baseball card are why Cabrera was awarded the MVP over Trout.)

Grape Ape does a good job comparing the nerdy sabermetric numbers which provide a fuller picture of each player's true value ... which slowly but surely more writers/voters are putting stock into.

GA, do you think that the WPA metric should be considered in evaluating a MVP-type of season?
(in which Donaldson is first in the A.L. whereas Trout is fourth.)

bottom line: if the Angels snag the second wildcard then A.L. MVP is gonna be too close to call;
but if the Angels miss the playoffs then (I believe) that will tilt the hardware towards Donaldson . . .
(rightly or wrongly.)

[Set It Up]

Donaldson had mvp wrapped weeks ago. Cy Young will br the hard decision

[tom joad]

Donaldson had mvp wrapped weeks ago. Cy Young will br the hard decision

with a couple of starts each to go, Price (pitching today) has clear edge over Keuchel (pitching tomorrow.)

[Grape Ape]

blinky, you're looking at the traditional stats that influence many of the "old school" baseball writers/voters.
(and, yeah, those numbers on the back of a baseball card are why Cabrera was awarded the MVP over Trout.)

Grape Ape does a good job comparing the nerdy sabermetric numbers which provide a fuller picture of each player's true value ... which slowly but surely more writers/voters are putting stock into.

GA, do you think that the WPA metric should be considered in evaluating a MVP-type of season?
(in which Donaldson is first in the A.L. whereas Trout is fourth.)

bottom line: if the Angels snag the second wildcard then A.L. MVP is gonna be too close to call;
but if the Angels miss the playoffs then (I believe) that will tilt the hardware towards Donaldson . . .
(rightly or wrongly.)

WPA adds context to the stats.  While I don't necessarily think that's bad, it is also somewhat a product of opportunity.  I would say, yes, add it in as part of the evaluation.  All stats are flawed somewhat, so the more we can find that point us in the right direction, the better.

As for you "bottom line" quote at the end, sounds pretty spot on to me.

[blinky]

ya i know. i hate all these new stats today. OBP is the only other 1 i like

[Grape Ape]

ya i know. i hate all these new stats today. OBP is the only other 1 i like

I think if you learn them, you'll find that a lot of them are better - see my point about batting average, rbi, etc.....

Some of them I don't care for, but I think if you utilize them in the directional, rather than absolute sense, it's better.

What sold me was on it was when the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher.

The year before they got him his batting avg was  .219 and his traditional stats made him look pretty undesirable.

BUT, if you dug deeper and used the stats BABIP (batting average for only balls put in the play of field - ignores strikeouts, hr, HBP, etc - in other words, what's your batting average when you actually hit the ball in the field) and LD% (line drive % - the amount of hits you have that are line drives), the Yankees were able to deduce that Swisher was really having an unlucky year, and did was not finished or declining.

In rough numbers, league average BABIP is like 30% or .300.     If a player has a high babip, it's usually not sustainable over a long period of time and it comes down, and if they have an unusually low babip, they tend to start gravitating up.

So in 2008 Swisher's bapip was a very low .245 but his LD % was much higher.   Hitting line drives is a good thing, as it often results in a hit.....So if Swisher is hitting a lot of line drives, but his babip is low, what does that mean?  It means he's hitting a lot of line drives at people or that are getting caught.  That does not indicate diminished skill set, it means the batter is on a very bad luck streak.   A batter doesn't generally control if a line drive goes at player for an out, or 1-2 feet to the left for a hit.

So, the Yankees were able to acquire him for a really low package of players, and the next year he went on to raise his OBP 39 points and his slugging 88 points.  He went from a below league average hitter in 2008, to a well above in 2009.

So, I thought it was pretty cool.

For what it's worth, I blog I used to write for interviewed Swisher and pointed that fact out....he said "I'm glad someone was paying attention!.....I couldn't get a break"

[tom joad]

with a couple of starts each to go, Price (pitching today) has clear edge over Keuchel (pitching tomorrow.)

well, Keuchel pitched a gem today while Price got hit pretty hard yesterday and so now it's a pick 'em for Cy Young heading into their final starts of the season.

[tom joad]

ya i know. i hate all these new stats today. OBP is the only other 1 i like

ya might as well consider OPS as well (On Base % + Slugging %)

which is a quick and dirty number which basically tells us how guys are doing offensively overall.

Grape Ape mentioned BAPIP (batting average balls in play) ...
the Jays Chris Colabello is an interesting case study.
the slow-footed journeyman is currently leading MLB in BAPIP at a ridiculous .411
the best career BAPIP ever in MLB is Rod Carew's .359
so it's safe to assume that the magic wand that Cola's been swinging this season (with his hits finding holes and touching green all over the place) won't continue to happen with as much regularity going forward in the future because his BABIP is unsustainable. (so, in short, Colabello's been very lucky at the plate this season.)

[Grape Ape]

the slow-footed journeyman is currently leading MLB in BAPIP at a ridiculous .411
the best career BAPIP ever in MLB is Rod Carew's .359
so it's safe to assume that the magic wand that Cola's been swinging this season (with his hits finding holes and touching green all over the place) won't continue to happen with as much regularity going forward in the future because his BABIP is unsustainable. (so, in short, Colabello's been very lucky at the plate this season.)

This is a good example - I've used the Carew numbers to illustrate stuff before

Another is when Austin Jackson was traded from the Yankees, Yankee fans were losing their shit due to his hot start.  He had an insane BABIP.  My buddy did an analysis that showed if Austin Jackson's BABIP dropped to Carew's, the best of all time, he became and average player.

If you look at his totals since, he's had a decent year, league average year, and now he looks bad.

[blinky]

just too many fukin stats these days. Overkill if u ask me. If u ask me....BA, HR'S, RBI'S & OBP are about all you need. U can also add in one off's like clutch hitting

Just my opinion

I think Donaldson has it locked.
Would be nice to see Price win and have both from the Jays(even though Price only played a couple months with them).

Anybody think Pillar from the Jays could win Golden Glove at CF??

[Grape Ape]

BA, HR'S, RBI'S & OBP are about all you need. U can also add in one off's like clutch hitting

Just my opinion

All good on opinion, but BA and RBI are too flawed for me.

As stated, it's not up the batter who is on base when they get up.   Donaldson gets so many more chance because of the team he's on.   Batting average is meh as well, because it doesn't tell you much.

You really don't need to get complicated to do better than those stats.

[tom joad]

Anybody think Pillar from the Jays could win Golden Glove at CF??

Well, based on the eye test - having watched pretty much every inning of every Jays game this season -
Kevin Pillar has played the hell out of CF!

Not too shabby for a guy who was supposed to be the Jays 4th Outfielder (before Saunders wrecked his knee) and then who played LF in April (before Pompey was sent down.)

Pillar's been the best i've seen in Toronto since Devon White/Whyte (dude changed the spelling of his name.)
... Pillar's been better than Vernon Wells who won 3 gold gloves.

But based on advanced defensive metrics, Pillar is a distant 2nd to Tampa's Kevin Kiermaier ... with KC's Lorenzo Cain right behind Pillar.

Adam Jones has won the award the last 3 years (and 4 times in total) but this year won't be his fifth.

Most voters for the gold gloves are swayed by "reputation" and ironically being a good hitter tends to help too, so who the fuck knows?

But i'd bet against Pillar and in favour of either Kiermaier or Cain.

Or if they give the MVP to Donaldson, then maybe they'll give the gold glove to Trout as a consolation prize?

[tom joad]

just too many fukin stats these days. Overkill if u ask me. If u ask me....BA, HR'S, RBI'S & OBP are about all you need. U can also add in one off's like clutch hitting

if you put a lot of stock in RBIs, bro, then you mustn't like fellow Canadian Joey Votto ... who is probably the consensus second best offensive player in MLB this year (after only Bryce Harper) despite Votto currently being 45th in baseball in RBIs.

[tom joad]

David Price is a different kind of cat.

He has the Cy Young within his grasp but he's given that up in favour of being as strong as possible for the team in the playoffs.

Price was scheduled to have an easy start against the light-hitting Rays this weekend, and the Jays were fine with him pitching to help his Cy Young candidacy ... but Price declined because his focus is now on being a horse for the team in the playoffs.

so dude (in his free agent year) has forfeited the Cy Young to Keuchel, who probably now wins the award based on his 20 wins to Price's 18 (and with other stats being fairly close.)

[Set It Up]

David Price is a different kind of cat.

He has the Cy Young within his grasp but he's given that up in favour of being as strong as possible for the team in the playoffs.

Price was scheduled to have an easy start against the light-hitting Rays this weekend, and the Jays were fine with him pitching to help his Cy Young candidacy ... but Price declined because his focus is now on being a horse for the team in the playoffs.

so dude (in his free agent year) has forfeited the Cy Young to Keuchel, who probably now wins the award based on his 20 wins to Price's 18 (and with other stats being fairly close.)

I would have given it to Keuchel the whole way. Im kinda weird though in that I want the  winner to have been with the same team the whole year