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Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Disreport ^
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 12:29:15 PM by Arthurio
by Trevor Antley and Calvin Roberts.
Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Abstract: Actual reported early voting data requires that early voting will represent no more than 32% of total vote in Ohio, while virtually every poll was weighted for early voting to occupy ~35-40% of total votes cast. The smaller-than-expected number of early votes means one of two things: 1) 2012 will see historically low voter turnout in Ohio; or 2) Mitt Romney has a much better chance at Ohio than polls assumed.
Late Monday night the Ohio Secretary of State released the “final” early voting results from Ohio’s counties. The results got the attention — and slight consternation — of the New York Times’ Nate Silver. Dave Wasserman kindly put the data into a spreadsheet here, which tabulates early voting results by county and compares that data to early voting results from 2008. Wasserman’s spreadsheet also notes Kerry’s 2004 margins and Obama’s 2008 margins, allowing one to effectively deduce the partisan-leanings of each county.
In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wisserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”
Seemingly overlooked by Silver, however, during the discussion of county-by-county results was the simple number of total reported early votes: a meager 1,787,346. As stated above, this number shows a 2.44% increase in early voting from 2008 — but the number is still surprisingly low. Virtually every Ohio poll this cycle was weighted on the basis that early voting would occupy a massive chunk of the total Ohio vote. Rasmussen’s final poll ceded 40% of the total vote to early voters (EVs). PPP gave EV’s a more reasonable 35%. The Columbus Dispatch calculated early voting to take up an astounding 47% of the total Ohio vote. Almost every other Ohio poll seems to have weighted early voting between 35% and 45% of the total vote.
The reported early voting numbers, however, show that virtually every single Ohio poll overestimated the amount of early votes cast. If early voting is calculated at 1,787,346, in order for total voter turnout to rival 2004 numbers, early voting cannot occupy more than 32% of the total votes cast — and even in that scenario, that high of a percentage means that total voter turnout will be lower than it was in 2008. In order for turnout to match 2008 levels, early voting can only account for 31% of total votes cast.
The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.
Our forecast is based largely on the reported margins between Romney and Obama among early voters and election day voters as reported by the Columbus Dispatch, Rasmussen, and other polls (all polling data considered is represented in the graphic below). The Columbus Dispatch gives Obama +15% among early voters; Rasmussen gives him a much wider 23%. Other polls for Ohio EVs: CNN/Opinion Research, Obama +28; Gravis Marketing, Obama +13; PPP, Obama +21. For our forecast we assumed a more conservative Obama +18 among EVs, averaging Rasmussen and the Columbus Dispatch.
In 2008 Obama won 58% of early voting against John McCain, who had virtually no get-out-the-vote infrastructure in Ohio; our model, giving Obama a 18% lead, again assumes he will win that 58% of early voters despite the fact that Mitt Romney is putting forth a much more competitive get-out-the-vote campaign and disregarding the GOP-leaning trend in early voting results of individual Ohio counties. When one considers the results from individual Ohio counties this cycle, Obama’s actual margin among EVs may actually be much lower (although without specific partisan data, it’s also possible that Obama’s margins have actually increased — although this seems extraordinarily more unlikely). But because this is impossible to determine without actual breakdowns of the early vote, which are not yet available, those implications are not included in this model.
In determining the margin among election day voters, the same polls were considered. For election day voters, Rasmussen has Romney +15; Columbus Dispatch, Romney +11; and CNN/Opinion Research, Romney +13. PPP and Gravis Marketing both had Romney’s election day margins at a much smaller +3. For our forecast, we assume Romney’s election day voter margins at 13%, an average of the first three polls. The consistency and disparity between the first three and the latter two polls made it difficult to average them since margins of error do not explain such a clear discrepancy between the two groups.
In this scenario — which seems to be supported by the majority of polls and early voting trends (but is notably not supported by all polls, as seen in the previous paragraph) — Romney should win Ohio. Based on these assumptions — which in turn are based on a combination of polling data and the state’s actual reported early vote — if early voting accounts for 32% of the vote (a very conservative number which would place total voter turnout slightly below that of 2004), Romney wins by a whopping 50.9% to Obama’s 47.8%. The higher voter turnout is — and therefore the lower the percentage of early votes in total votes — the higher Romney’s margin becomes.
In this scenario, even if we assume our model’s margins between Obama and Romney among early voters and election day voters are somehow skewed in Romney’s favor, Romney still has padding that those margins could be reduced and he still wins. If early voting is only 31% of the total vote — putting Ohio’s total vote at just above 2008 levels — Romney has incredibly more wiggle room.
The lower-than-anticipated turnout among early voters suggests the Obama campaign’s lead in Ohio was largely hot air. And this does not even seriously consider the county-by-county early voting results, which appear to be even more damaging to Obama.
Reasons Why This Projection May Turn Out to be Wrong
In the case that the final early voting numbers reported by the Ohio secretary of state are incorrect and the final early voting results will include statistically significant additions, obviously this projection will have no meaning. As seen above, some of the polling data used in the projection (such as Romney’s margin among election day voters) is supported by several independent polling organizations but not by some others. If it turns out that the fewer polls’ results were right, then obviously our entire model is skewed too heavily towards Romney. Some have raised the possibility that effects from Hurricane Sandy stifled early voting in the final days and these early voters will simply vote for Obama on election day, increasing his election day margins beyond what polls indicated. In this scenario the polls are essentially still correct; Obama’s early voting margin was simply reallocated to his election day margin. There is no solid data to show that this is the case, but it is certainly possible. There is always the chance that the government and electorate will decide simply to defer to Nate Silver’s forecast and forget this whole voting nonsense. Since our forecast is based largely on actual votes, not subjectively weighted aggregates of polls, this would make our projection essentially meaningless. About these ads
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Romney up 92K in OH early voting? Update: Gannett pulls link
HotAir ^
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 9:53:26 AM by rlbedfor
Mitt Romney already has 697,143 votes before the polls opened a couple of hours ago, while Barack Obama only has 605,546, a difference of almost 92,000 votes. The data is time-stamped at 2:03 ET this morning, and the link on the front page of the site reads, “Early voters: How Ohio has voted.”
A few counties have not yet reported any early-voting results, but one county in particular looks huge. Cuyahoga, which includes Cleveland, should be a Democratic stronghold, and perhaps the one area where Democratic early-voting efforts should have produced their biggest lead. Instead, Romney has a lead of about 14,000 votes already, 127,570 to 113,373. In Hamilton County, where Cincinnati itself is located, Romney leads by over 5,000, 29,969 to 24,808. A quick scan of the data shows Romney leading in every county with more than 25,000 EVs.
This may be a very big deal, if these numbers are correct.
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Here are Florida's early voting numbers:
Florida’s presidential election is half over, with more than 4 million voters having cast ballots by absentee, early vote
Democrats have a lead in total early/absentee ballots cast over Republicans, but polls indicate Republican Mitt Romney is in a better position than President Barack Obama win the state on Election Day.
Election Day could already be half over in Florida before polling stations open at 7 a.m.
More than 4.5 million people have voted early, which accounts for 38 percent of the state’s 12 million registered voters and half of the ones likely to cast a ballot.
Democrats have a lead in total ballots cast over Republicans — 167,000 — but polls indicate Republican Mitt Romney is in a better position than President Barack Obama.
Obama is worse off than he was four years ago. Depending on how the data are sliced, his pre-Election Day lead could be half of what it was in 2008.
Still, Democrats are up in early ballots.
“It’s half-over, but it’s tied,” said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University political science professor and early voting expert. “There’s still another half to play.”
This is the tough half. If Obama wins Florida, he wins re-election.
The campaigns will be phoning voters who don’t show up, providing rides and keeping electronic tabs on bellwether precincts. It’s a massive numbers game involving tens of thousands of grassroots volunteers and data-mining techies monitoring the campaigns’ progress — or lack thereof — in real time from headquarters in Chicago (Obama) and Boston (Romney).
McDonald said this Florida election had a surprise: Higher proportions of Republicans cast in-person early votes compared to 2008, and even higher percentages of Democrats cast absentee ballots, which are typically mailed.
About 2.1 million absentee ballots were cast statewide — in addition to 2.4 million in-person early votes. The numbers show that, when it comes to voting, Florida has racial divisions that play to each campaign’s strengths, according to an analysis of preliminary voter data conducted by The Miami Herald and the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting:
African-American voters: Accounting for less than 14 percent of the electorate, they prefer to vote in person rather than by mail.
Black voters have cast more than a quarter of the state’s early votes, but only about 9 percent of absentee ballots. About 90 percent of the African-American ballots are from Democrats.
Hispanic voters: More than 14 percent of the electorate, Hispanic voters appear to still prefer to vote on Election Day.
Hispanics cast about 12 percent of in-person early votes, with Democrats far outnumbering Republicans. The Democrats’ strength: Central Florida, home to liberal-leaning Puerto Ricans, where Democrats outvoted the GOP nearly 2:1.
But it’s a different story when it comes to absentee ballots, thanks to strong Cuban-American support in Southeast Florida, where Hispanic GOP absentee ballots were more than double those cast by Hispanic Democrats. Still, Hispanic Democrats cling to a narrow 37-41 percent lead over Republicans in the overall early vote. And Democrats have more Hispanics to turn out relative to the number of Republican Hispanics who haven’t yet voted.
Non-Hispanic white voters: About 67 percent of the electorate, white voters turn out in higher proportions than minorities during Florida elections. They cast 77 percent of absentee ballots, but only 61 percent of in-person early votes.
Obama needs an outsized minority turnout to counterbalance the disproportionate white vote that Romney is winning in polls. Obama also needs to rely on young and first-time voters. So the Obama campaign bolstered Democratic ranks by more than 320,000, many of them minorities, thanks to a mammoth voter-registration drive.
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/05/3083613/floridas-presidential-election.html#storylink=cpy
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/05/3083613/floridas-presidential-election.html#storylink=cpy
These numbers almost mirror what I posted from Politico earlier. The article you posted mirror what I posted from Rove and others a couple of days ago:
Obama's early voting numbers are WAAAAAY DOWN. If Romney gets the high turnout (or at least, matches what McCain got), he can win it.
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it's going to be fun watching 333 and McWay console each other
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it's going to be fun watching 333 and McWay console each other
About as much fun as watching you and the other kneepadders console each other, if Romney wins.
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About as much fun as watching you and the other kneepadders console each other, if Romney wins.
not a problem, as long as the market DJ goes up by 400+ points.
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it's going to be fun watching 333 and McWay console each other
Yep....Florida is not a deciding factor in this election. Romney needs Ohio to have a chance but he has to win at least 2 more Obama strongholds.
He'll fare better than McCain....but it doesn't look like he's going to pull this one off.
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Yep....Florida is not a deciding factor in this election. Romney needs Ohio to have a chance but he has to win at least 2 more Obama strongholds.
He'll fare better than McCain....but it doesn't look like he's going to pull this one off.
you far left freaks also thought the demos would win in 2010 remember?
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About as much fun as watching you and the other kneepadders console each other, if Romney wins.
you're at "if" now
that's a switch
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Romney Campaign: GOP Turnout Looks Good in Ohio
The Gateway Pundit ^ | Tuesday, November 6, 2012 | Jim Hoft
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 1:40:47 PM by
The Romney campaign sent this out earlier. Republican turnout looks good in Ohio. Via Josh Kraushaar from Hotline on Call:
Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
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Romney Campaign: GOP Turnout Looks Good in Ohio The Gateway Pundit ^ | Tuesday, November 6, 2012 | Jim Hoft
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 1:40:47 PM by
The Romney campaign sent this out earlier. Republican turnout looks good in Ohio. Via Josh Kraushaar from Hotline on Call:
Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
what else would you expect Romney campaign to say...turn out looks bad ?
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Poll predicts fewer voters in California than four years ago
Sacramento Bee ^ | 11/6/12 | Laurel Rosenhall
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 1:34:17 PM
The number of Californians who vote in today's election is expected to drop by 1 million compared with four years ago, despite a record number of registered voters in the state.
And for the first time in state history, more votes are expected to be cast by mail than at a precinct.
Those are predictions of a Field Poll released today, which says 69.9 percent of registered California voters, or nearly 12.75 million people, are likely to turn out for this year's general election, compared with 79.4 percent in the 2008 contest between Sen. John McCain and then-Sen. Barack Obama.
"I believe the potential election of the United States' first African American president, who had really captured Californians, led to a really unusual turnout," said Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo.
"This time there is just not as much excitement. We've made history."
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
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Middle Cheese: GOP Counties Turned Out for Early Voting (Ohio)
NRO ^ | 11/6/2012 | Jim Geraghty
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 2:17:54 PM by
Middle Cheese checks in:
"Just a brief report from the Big Cheeses at Team Romney about Ohio early/absentee voting: Obama is under-performing in Kerry-Obama counties, and Republicans are outperforming in McCain 08 counties. As of yesterday, in swing Hamilton County, there are 1,000 fewer Democrat and 800 more GOP early/absentee votes than at this point in 08. Ohio Republicans will turn out. But the key to a Romney victory in OH will be independent voters, who favor Romney by double-digits over Obama in 21 of the last 24 public opinion polls."
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10:57 AM MT, Colorado Sec of State: GOP leads early vote by 5.1%
Colorado Sec of State | November 6, 2012 | self
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 2:15:37 PM by
As of 12: 57 Eastern time Colorado Sec of State Scott Gessler reported that in early voting Republicans lead Democrats by just under 5.1% http://bit.ly/Sr7nKP
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(http://www.dailykos.com/i/admin/Obama_laughing_550)
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Yep....Florida is not a deciding factor in this election. Romney needs Ohio to have a chance but he has to win at least 2 more Obama strongholds.
He'll fare better than McCain....but it doesn't look like he's going to pull this one off.
Based on what?
Obama's only up about 84,000 on early voting. He was up 340,000 against McCain. Romney's right behind him and if Romney at least matches the turnout McCain got, he can surpass Obama in Ohio.
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Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Disreport ^
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 12:29:15 PM by Arthurio
by Trevor Antley and Calvin Roberts.
Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Abstract: Actual reported early voting data requires that early voting will represent no more than 32% of total vote in Ohio, while virtually every poll was weighted for early voting to occupy ~35-40% of total votes cast. The smaller-than-expected number of early votes means one of two things: 1) 2012 will see historically low voter turnout in Ohio; or 2) Mitt Romney has a much better chance at Ohio than polls assumed.
Late Monday night the Ohio Secretary of State released the “final” early voting results from Ohio’s counties. The results got the attention — and slight consternation — of the New York Times’ Nate Silver. Dave Wasserman kindly put the data into a spreadsheet here, which tabulates early voting results by county and compares that data to early voting results from 2008. Wasserman’s spreadsheet also notes Kerry’s 2004 margins and Obama’s 2008 margins, allowing one to effectively deduce the partisan-leanings of each county.
In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wisserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”
Seemingly overlooked by Silver, however, during the discussion of county-by-county results was the simple number of total reported early votes: a meager 1,787,346. As stated above, this number shows a 2.44% increase in early voting from 2008 — but the number is still surprisingly low. Virtually every Ohio poll this cycle was weighted on the basis that early voting would occupy a massive chunk of the total Ohio vote. Rasmussen’s final poll ceded 40% of the total vote to early voters (EVs). PPP gave EV’s a more reasonable 35%. The Columbus Dispatch calculated early voting to take up an astounding 47% of the total Ohio vote. Almost every other Ohio poll seems to have weighted early voting between 35% and 45% of the total vote.
The reported early voting numbers, however, show that virtually every single Ohio poll overestimated the amount of early votes cast. If early voting is calculated at 1,787,346, in order for total voter turnout to rival 2004 numbers, early voting cannot occupy more than 32% of the total votes cast — and even in that scenario, that high of a percentage means that total voter turnout will be lower than it was in 2008. In order for turnout to match 2008 levels, early voting can only account for 31% of total votes cast.
The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.
Our forecast is based largely on the reported margins between Romney and Obama among early voters and election day voters as reported by the Columbus Dispatch, Rasmussen, and other polls (all polling data considered is represented in the graphic below). The Columbus Dispatch gives Obama +15% among early voters; Rasmussen gives him a much wider 23%. Other polls for Ohio EVs: CNN/Opinion Research, Obama +28; Gravis Marketing, Obama +13; PPP, Obama +21. For our forecast we assumed a more conservative Obama +18 among EVs, averaging Rasmussen and the Columbus Dispatch.
In 2008 Obama won 58% of early voting against John McCain, who had virtually no get-out-the-vote infrastructure in Ohio; our model, giving Obama a 18% lead, again assumes he will win that 58% of early voters despite the fact that Mitt Romney is putting forth a much more competitive get-out-the-vote campaign and disregarding the GOP-leaning trend in early voting results of individual Ohio counties. When one considers the results from individual Ohio counties this cycle, Obama’s actual margin among EVs may actually be much lower (although without specific partisan data, it’s also possible that Obama’s margins have actually increased — although this seems extraordinarily more unlikely). But because this is impossible to determine without actual breakdowns of the early vote, which are not yet available, those implications are not included in this model.
In determining the margin among election day voters, the same polls were considered. For election day voters, Rasmussen has Romney +15; Columbus Dispatch, Romney +11; and CNN/Opinion Research, Romney +13. PPP and Gravis Marketing both had Romney’s election day margins at a much smaller +3. For our forecast, we assume Romney’s election day voter margins at 13%, an average of the first three polls. The consistency and disparity between the first three and the latter two polls made it difficult to average them since margins of error do not explain such a clear discrepancy between the two groups.
In this scenario — which seems to be supported by the majority of polls and early voting trends (but is notably not supported by all polls, as seen in the previous paragraph) — Romney should win Ohio. Based on these assumptions — which in turn are based on a combination of polling data and the state’s actual reported early vote — if early voting accounts for 32% of the vote (a very conservative number which would place total voter turnout slightly below that of 2004), Romney wins by a whopping 50.9% to Obama’s 47.8%. The higher voter turnout is — and therefore the lower the percentage of early votes in total votes — the higher Romney’s margin becomes.
In this scenario, even if we assume our model’s margins between Obama and Romney among early voters and election day voters are somehow skewed in Romney’s favor, Romney still has padding that those margins could be reduced and he still wins. If early voting is only 31% of the total vote — putting Ohio’s total vote at just above 2008 levels — Romney has incredibly more wiggle room.
The lower-than-anticipated turnout among early voters suggests the Obama campaign’s lead in Ohio was largely hot air. And this does not even seriously consider the county-by-county early voting results, which appear to be even more damaging to Obama.
Reasons Why This Projection May Turn Out to be Wrong
In the case that the final early voting numbers reported by the Ohio secretary of state are incorrect and the final early voting results will include statistically significant additions, obviously this projection will have no meaning. As seen above, some of the polling data used in the projection (such as Romney’s margin among election day voters) is supported by several independent polling organizations but not by some others. If it turns out that the fewer polls’ results were right, then obviously our entire model is skewed too heavily towards Romney. Some have raised the possibility that effects from Hurricane Sandy stifled early voting in the final days and these early voters will simply vote for Obama on election day, increasing his election day margins beyond what polls indicated. In this scenario the polls are essentially still correct; Obama’s early voting margin was simply reallocated to his election day margin. There is no solid data to show that this is the case, but it is certainly possible. There is always the chance that the government and electorate will decide simply to defer to Nate Silver’s forecast and forget this whole voting nonsense. Since our forecast is based largely on actual votes, not subjectively weighted aggregates of polls, this would make our projection essentially meaningless. About these ads
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http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/
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Intrade also had obamacare going down 75% remember?
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Although not perfect, InTrade correct 91% of time.
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http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/strong-republican-turnout-at-polls-in-fl-and-intensity-high-in-pa
Wow. If Mittens takes PA its going to be a short night.
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per David Limbaugh Twitter: pretty stunning OH numbers
Twitter | LS
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:28:41 PM
@DavidLimbaugh Just saw update from RNC says turnout up (125%) in GOP Geauga County, OH where McCain won 57 & down 10% in Athens Cty where O won 67%.
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Although not perfect, InTrade correct 91% of time.
Gallup, so far, IS PERFECT!!
Every challenger that has been at the 50% or higher mark, since mid-October, has won.
Romney broke that mark on Oct. 15 and has been there,since then.
Final Gallup poll, likely voters and no undecideds: Romney - 50; Obama - 49. (And that's with the undecideds evenly distributed among Obama, Romney, and an unknown third-party challenger).
Since, in real elections, the undecideds don't go evenly but break for the challenger to the tune of around 80%, that final poll would actually be: Romney - 52; Obama - 48.
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Wall Street jumps as energy gains hint at Romney victory
Reuters ^ | Tue Nov 6, 2012 3:02pm EST | By Caroline Valetkevitch
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:19:26 PM
Stocks climbed on Tuesday as some investors bet that Republican Mitt Romney could pull off a surprise victory in the presidential vote, citing gains in defense and energy shares.
Gains were fairly broad-based, but among S&P 500 sectors, energy led the market along with materials and industrial shares, all sectors that rise with the economy.
Defense shares like United Technologies shot higher, raising some market speculation that Romney,, who has called for increased military spending, could be moving ahead of Democratic President Barack Obama in the vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
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In-person, early voting numbers down from 2008 in Cuyahoga County
Newsnet ^
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:00:23 PM by Arthurio
By: John Kosich, newsnet5.com
CLEVELAND - The door has officially shut on early voting in Ohio, while we won’t know the results of those early ballots until shortly after the polls close at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday night, we can look at the numbers to see who voted and who hasn’t.
First off, fewer people voted early in-person in Cuyahoga County this year compared to four years ago, off about 9,000 votes or 16.6 percent.
While much has been made about the reduced hours and lost weekend voting this year, the numbers remained on a pace ahead of 2008 heading into the final week, but trailed off dramatically over the last seven days.
Weather no doubt a factor with the remnants of Superstorm Sandy drenching northeast Ohio daily much of the last week. That being said, the final weekend of early voting in Cleveland saw around 800 fewer voters when compared to the final weekend in 2008.
In the end, 45,337 people voted early this year, including 2,826 people on Monday. That’s compared to 54,340 in 2008.
Combined with those voting by mail, there are roughly 250,000 votes in-house, ready to be tallied at the Cuyahoga County BOE when the polls close at 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
While Democrats state the poll numbers show the early vote benefits them, it’s interesting to note as a percentage, the early vote reflects an uptick for Republicans compared to their early voting numbers in 2008.
As of the day before Election Day, Democratic early votes already in are at 89 percent of their ’08 number while Republicans are at 138 percent of their ’08 early vote total.
So how much of the vote is actually in and how many people will head to the polls? Well, if you were to compare the current Cuyahoga County totals to the actual voter turnout in 2008, Democrats have 37.6 percent of their final vote in ’08, Republicans are at 59.6 percent of theirs and non-partisans are at 26 percent of their vote.
Read more: http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/In-person-early-voting-numbers-down-from-2008-in-Cuyahoga-County#ixzz2BTSzWG00
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http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/strong-republican-turnout-at-polls-in-fl-and-intensity-high-in-pa
Wow. If Mittens takes PA its going to be a short night.
I'm hearing that Romney's winning the I-4 corridor in Florida. That's the spacecoast (Orlando and surrounding areas) and the Tampa Bay area (my home region).
If that's accurate, the Sunshine State goes to Romney.
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I'm hearing that Romney's winning the I-4 corridor in Florida. If that's accurate, the Sunshine State goes to Romney.
Florida won't even be close.
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In-person, early voting numbers down from 2008 in Cuyahoga County
Newsnet ^
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:00:23 PM by Arthurio
By: John Kosich, newsnet5.com
CLEVELAND - The door has officially shut on early voting in Ohio, while we won’t know the results of those early ballots until shortly after the polls close at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday night, we can look at the numbers to see who voted and who hasn’t.
First off, fewer people voted early in-person in Cuyahoga County this year compared to four years ago, off about 9,000 votes or 16.6 percent.
While much has been made about the reduced hours and lost weekend voting this year, the numbers remained on a pace ahead of 2008 heading into the final week, but trailed off dramatically over the last seven days.
Weather no doubt a factor with the remnants of Superstorm Sandy drenching northeast Ohio daily much of the last week. That being said, the final weekend of early voting in Cleveland saw around 800 fewer voters when compared to the final weekend in 2008.
In the end, 45,337 people voted early this year, including 2,826 people on Monday. That’s compared to 54,340 in 2008.
Combined with those voting by mail, there are roughly 250,000 votes in-house, ready to be tallied at the Cuyahoga County BOE when the polls close at 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
While Democrats state the poll numbers show the early vote benefits them, it’s interesting to note as a percentage, the early vote reflects an uptick for Republicans compared to their early voting numbers in 2008.
As of the day before Election Day, Democratic early votes already in are at 89 percent of their ’08 number while Republicans are at 138 percent of their ’08 early vote total.
So how much of the vote is actually in and how many people will head to the polls? Well, if you were to compare the current Cuyahoga County totals to the actual voter turnout in 2008, Democrats have 37.6 percent of their final vote in ’08, Republicans are at 59.6 percent of theirs and non-partisans are at 26 percent of their vote.
Read more: http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/political/In-person-early-voting-numbers-down-from-2008-in-Cuyahoga-County#ixzz2BTSzWG00
Do you have the updated hard numbers of the actual early vote count? I have the ones, as of Saturday night (according to Karl Rove). The Dems were down 155,000 from '08; the GOP was up 120,000.
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Bill Cunningham is reporting on Hannity's show that turnout in Hamilton County is HUGE for Romney. That's Cincinnati and other surrounding areas. If that goes for Romney, he gets Ohio, regardless of the Cleveland (Cuyahoga County) turnout for Obama.
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Bill Cunningham is reporting on Hannity's show that turnout in Hamilton County is HUGE for Romney. That's Cincinnati and other surrounding areas. If that goes for Romney, he gets Ohio, regardless of the Cleveland (Cuyahoga County) turnout for Obama.
Heard that. If he is even 50% as right as this interview - landslide coming.
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Heard that. If he is even 50% as right as this interview - landslide coming.
So far, so good. My concern now is Virginia. From an article I posted earlier, the Dem early voting is down in Richmond, Norfolk, and other Dem counties (I'll pull that article a bit later), while it's up in GOP areas (i.e. Hanover and others).
Per my picks, Romney needs to sweep the southeast (FL, NC, VA) and get Colorado and Ohio. I know Romney's up in early voting in Colorado.
That combination gets him 275 and the win.
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BIG OHIO UPDATE: GOP Turnout Is Way Up ↑… Dem Turnout Way Down ↓
Posted by Jim Hoft on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, 2:48 PM
Here’s the latest from Ohio from campaign sources……..
Quick update – turnout is up in GOP Geauga County, Ohio where McCain won with 57% of the vote and down in Athens County, the home of Ohio University and where Obama won with 67% in 2008. Early vote in Geauga? 125% of 2008. Athens? Down 10% from 2008.
SHOT: GOP county turnout up
· Plain Dealer: Geauga election chief predicts 80 percent voter turnout today
· Geauga County early vote was 125% more than 2008 early vote
· McCain won Geauga County with 57% and Bush got 60% in ‘04
CHASER: Dem county turnout down
· WOUB: Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turn Out Low
· Athens County early vote was 10% less than 2008 early vote
· Obama won Athens County with 67%
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BIG OHIO UPDATE: GOP Turnout Is Way Up ↑… Dem Turnout Way Down ↓
Posted by Jim Hoft on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, 2:48 PM
Here’s the latest from Ohio from campaign sources……..
Quick update – turnout is up in GOP Geauga County, Ohio where McCain won with 57% of the vote and down in Athens County, the home of Ohio University and where Obama won with 67% in 2008. Early vote in Geauga? 125% of 2008. Athens? Down 10% from 2008.
SHOT: GOP county turnout up
· Plain Dealer: Geauga election chief predicts 80 percent voter turnout today
· Geauga County early vote was 125% more than 2008 early vote
· McCain won Geauga County with 57% and Bush got 60% in ‘04
CHASER: Dem county turnout down
· WOUB: Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turn Out Low
· Athens County early vote was 10% less than 2008 early vote
· Obama won Athens County with 67%
Now, why does this sound so familiar? OOOOOHHHHHHH!!!! The article I posted in which I goofed by screwing up the date, thinking it was a typo.
Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney
In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.
While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.
And in a sign that the enthusiasm of 2008 voters is depressed, just 638,997 absentee ballots have been requested, according to American Majority Action, which culled the statistics together from Ohio college professors who are tracking the state's absentee ballots used for early voting. The group provided Secrets with the details.
Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat's 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.
University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. "Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big."
Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State's efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats.
"Considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio's cleaner rolls could make a big impact," Ryun said. He added, "The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes--assuming registered voters vote for their candidate--demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008."
Ryun sent this to Secrets from his analysis of Ohio early voting:
In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican--a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican--only a five point gap.
The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.
--Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP - 20 point shift.
--Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP - 18 point shift.
--Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP - 15 point shift.
--Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) - 6 point shift.
--Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.
--Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP - 10 point shift.
--Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP - 23 point shift.
--Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM - 17 point shift.
--Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP - 6 point shift.
--Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP - 16 point shift.
--Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM - 24 point shift.
--Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP - 17 point shift.
--Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP - 27 point shift.
--Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP - 14 point shift.
--Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM - 27 point shift.
--Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP - 11 point shift.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2509838#.UJcQ8q6gy-n
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Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turn Out Low
WOUB Public Media ^ | Tue, Nov 6, 2012 2:10 pm | Brianna DiPilato
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:10:52 PM by Smogger
Athens County election officials said voter turnout appears to be below average Tuesday morning.
Polling places located at City Hall and at Ohio University's Baker Center only a handful of people waiting in line to vote.
Officials at the Ohio University Division of Student Affairs said the low turnout could be because many Ohio University students are spending the morning waiting in line to obtain a proof of residency form in order to go vote.
Officials said the office has been filled with students since 8 a.m.
Voters like Ohio University freshman Casey Harchaoui said they were surprised at the low turnout.
"I was expecting a long line," she said. "I'm assuming most people might be in class this morning. I also think that most students aren't from Athens County and felt more comfortable filling out an absentee ballot in their home county.
Other voters like OU senior James Bohland think the low turnout is because of early voting.
"Every time I walked past the Board of Elections office there seemed to be a lot of people there," said Bohland.
According to officials at the Athens County Board of Elections 9,249 people in Athens County voted early this year either by mail or in person.
There are 47,856 registered voters in Athens County.
That is breaksdown to just over 19% of registered voters that voted early.
Ohio had almost 1.8 million people statewide cast their vote before Election Day.
The polls will be open until 7:30 p.m.
________________________ _____________________
2008 Totals:
Barack Obama: 20,722 66.29%
John McCain: 9,742 31.17%
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LOVE IT
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Whoa! Even Dan Rather Says “It’s Going to Be a Good Day For Romney”
The Gateway Pundit ^ | Tuesday, November 6, 2012 | Jim Hoft
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:46:13 PM by forbushalltheway
Even Dan Rather, the poster child of media bias, admitted on Morning Joe today that it is likely going to be “a good day for Romney.” The Politico reported:
Longtime television journalist Dan Rather said on Tuesday that reporters shouldn’t predict elections based on their gut — but added that his tells him Mitt Romney will have a good day.
“Something in my gut tells me that it’s going to be a good day for Romney,” Rather said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
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Whoa! Even Dan Rather Says “It’s Going to Be a Good Day For Romney”
The Gateway Pundit ^ | Tuesday, November 6, 2012 | Jim Hoft
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:46:13 PM by forbushalltheway
Even Dan Rather, the poster child of media bias, admitted on Morning Joe today that it is likely going to be “a good day for Romney.” The Politico reported:
Longtime television journalist Dan Rather said on Tuesday that reporters shouldn’t predict elections based on their gut — but added that his tells him Mitt Romney will have a good day.
“Something in my gut tells me that it’s going to be a good day for Romney,” Rather said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Great Facts and figures.. REally Reliable ::)
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Great Facts and figures.. REally Reliable ::)
And the rest of what I posted WITH ACTUAL DATA?
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http://romneyresponse.tumblr.com/post/35147776637/paul-begala-drop-in-enthusiasm-for-obama-among
Ha ha ha - Paul Begala starting to panic.
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http://romneyresponse.tumblr.com/post/35147776637/paul-begala-drop-in-enthusiasm-for-obama-among
Ha ha ha - Paul Begala starting to panic.
Michael Barone just talked about that (youth vote being down) on Hannity.
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Michael Barone just talked about that (youth vote being down) on Hannity.
Why the F would young people EVEr vote for Obama?
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:)
Great pic. Mittens as the Mittmentum going.
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Now, why does this sound so familiar? OOOOOHHHHHHH!!!! The article I posted in which I goofed by screwing up the date, thinking it was a typo.
Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney
In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.
While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.
And in a sign that the enthusiasm of 2008 voters is depressed, just 638,997 absentee ballots have been requested, according to American Majority Action, which culled the statistics together from Ohio college professors who are tracking the state's absentee ballots used for early voting. The group provided Secrets with the details.
Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat's 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.
University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. "Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big."
Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State's efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats.
"Considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio's cleaner rolls could make a big impact," Ryun said. He added, "The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes--assuming registered voters vote for their candidate--demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008."
Ryun sent this to Secrets from his analysis of Ohio early voting:
In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican--a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican--only a five point gap.
The Republicans have shrunk the gap nine percent overall since 2008, but when we examine key counties in Ohio, the numbers become even more dramatic.
--Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP - 20 point shift.
--Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP - 18 point shift.
--Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP - 15 point shift.
--Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM (GOP already has 6,000 more requests than in 2008) - 6 point shift.
--Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM -17 point shift.
--Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP - 10 point shift.
--Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP - 23 point shift.
--Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM - 17 point shift.
--Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP - 6 point shift.
--Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP - 16 point shift.
--Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM - 24 point shift.
--Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP - 17 point shift.
--Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP - 27 point shift.
--Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP - 14 point shift.
--Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM - 27 point shift.
--Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP - 11 point shift.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/article/2509838#.UJcQ8q6gy-n
(http://ts3.explicit.bing.net/th?id=I.4944981298840154&pid=1.7) Romney AW YEAH
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Steve Forbes: Romney Will Win Decisively (321 EVs)
Forbes ^ | 11/06/2012 | Steve Forbes
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 5:06:32 PM
Mitt Romney will win big tonight. His popular vote margin will be between 3 – 5%. He will win the Electoral College I believe by a vote of 321 to 217, and with luck, even more. He will win all of the states McCain carried in 2008 which will give him 180 electoral votes. He will also carry the three states that normally go Republican that in 2008 went for Obama – Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. That brings him to 219. He will also take Florida, which will bring him to 248 votes. Although the Obama campaign will deny it, it effectively wrote off Virginia and Florida several days ago.
Despite intense efforts, Obama will lose both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Ohio the voter turnout for Republicans will be more like 2004 instead of 2008. Southeastern Ohio has a number of evangelical voters and the area also has a coal industry. Romney should win the state by up to 200,000 votes. He will also win Pennsylvania where he has not been damaged by a long-lasting barrage of negative ads.
Romney should also win narrowly in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado. He even has a chance to take Nevada. That gives him 321 electoral votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
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Data the Romney Campaign is Looking At
NRO ^ | 11/6/12 | Rich Lowry
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 5:47:03 PM by
This is what the Romney folks say is encouraging them. Passed along for what it’s worth:
CO:
Adams County (lean D county) – strong R turnout based on morning data – on track to win since first time in 1984.
AB/EV margins will be hard for them to overcome today. Right now – it’s a virtual tie.
Arapahoe (Swing County) – 4860 D, 5271 R – Election Day so far
Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV – Dem: 75653 Rep: 75812
Jefferson County (Swing) – 78738 D, 85378 R for AB/EV
Waiting on election day
Teller County (Hard GOP) – 173 D, 656 R for election day
Winning 5-1 with AB/EV – clearly outperforming 2008
Archuletta/ Moffatt – western slope counties where we needed to run up the score. Well here you go:
Archuleta County
175
57
Moffat County
253
49
IA:
Republicans are already over-performing their share of returned absentee ballots and early votes in 95 of Iowa’s 99 counties – including critical counties like Black Hawk, Cerro Gordo, Dallas, Des Moines, Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Marion, Muscatine, Polk, Pottawattamie, Poweshiek, Sioux, Story, Wapello, Woodbury, and Winneshiek.
Republicans are even over-performing their share of ballots returned in 75 of 99 counties compared to 2004, the first time a Republican candidate carried Iowa in a presidential election since 1984, and are over-performing 2004 statewide by more than 3 points.
Suburban turnout is very high. Ankeny, Clive, and Urbandale precincts are seeing a lot of Election Day traffic. Those are Republican precincts.
NW Iowa counties which are hugely Republican but just never blew out turnout for McCain are voting in very large numbers. Those counties very fired up for Mitt.
Rural turnout high and we’re leading among rural Iowa voters.
Record low turnout in lefty Johnson County (Dems already voted all their base with early vote) – proving our point about cannibalizing their high propensity voters.
Republican precincts are turning out today, like we want it to be. Dem precincts are lighter but expected lighter because they’ve voted so many early.
FL:
Bay County, FL – which went 71 – 28 for GW Bush in ‘04 – is adding staff at voting locations because of overwhelming turnout.
Hialeah (FL), highest % Cubans & Cuban-Americans in America & regarded as “most GOP” b/c of vote history, reports lines around the block.
- 2 hour lines reported in Walton County, a county that voted 73.2% for George W. Bush in 2004 (21 points above the statewide percentage for Bush).
- Hour-plus lines reported in Escambia County, a county that voted 65.3% for George W. Bush in 2004.
- Long lines and Republicans outvoting Democrats by nearly two to one in traditional bellwether county Pasco (of which Jeb Bush famously said “as goes Pasco, as goes Florida” which George W. Bush won’t by 10 points in 2004.)
- Shorter wait times reported in Miami-Dade County – especially in Democratic precincts. Democrats usually win Miami-Dade by 10 pts or more. (Obama won it by 16 points in 2008.)
- LONG line is of Precinct 69 in Ft. Myers (Lee County). Breakdown of registered voters in that area is below: R: 1,314 D: 531
NH:
Over 90% of the vote is on the table for Election Day
Very high turnout in strong GOP towns of Pelham, Bedford, Merrimack, Atkinson, well surpassing 08 numbers. Estimates for Bedford have nearly 90% turning out, and it’s a 60/40 GOP Town.
Dems slightly behind or on par with 08 numbers. Concord not turning out, reports of small or nonexistent lines.
Bedford – a top 5 GOP town that gave McCain 59% in 2008 -reporting 800+ voters per hour w/anticipated turnout of near 90%
NV:
About even in Washoe for AB/EV – held them to where we needed to in Clark for the early vote.
Overall – Clark County is seeming to be lower than anticipated and we’re seeing strong turnout in the rurals. This is what we need to play ball to win.
OH:
Absentee and early vote activity is over 17 percent higher in counties McCain won than counties Obama won, compared to 2008.
Turnout is higher in counties and media markets McCain carried in ’08 than in counties and markets Obama carried.
There are 34 counties in Ohio that John McCain won where absentee and early vote turnout is over 120 percent of 2008. There are only 9 counties where Obama won four years ago where this is the case.
@HotlineJosh: Overall, early vote turnout OH up 2.44% in state. Down -4.1% in Obama/Kerry counties; up 14.39% in Bush/McCain counties.
GOP county turnout up
· Plain Dealer: Geauga election chief predicts 80 percent voter turnout today
· Geauga County early vote was 125% more than 2008 early vote
· McCain won Geauga County with 57% and Bush got 60% in ‘04
Dem county turnout down
· WOUB: Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turn Out Low
· Athens County early vote was 10% less than 2008 early vote
· Obama won Athens County with 67%
PA:
Coal Country is coming out stronger than in previous elections according to data we’ve received.
Final AB #s of returns as opposed to requests is going to come in at about R+8 which would put it 1 pt to the right of 2010. 8pts to the right of 2008. (a small but telling number)
Northern Bucks County is coming out strong for GOP (this is a bellweather)
Western PA is turning out in historic numbers for a Presidential – remember this is coal country. They are not voting for Obama
Southcentral PA is turning out strong (traditional GOP stronghold)
VA:
In Staunton’s Ward 4 in 2008, 1450 people voted. As of 1:30 p.m. today , 1223 people had voted. McCain won this precinct 54.8 – 44.3.
By noon 972 votes had been cast in Elmont’s precinct 704 in Hanover County. In 2008, there were 1422 total votes cast in the precinct, which McCain won 68-30 in 2008.
In Democratic stronghold Charlottesville at 1 p.m., turnout was 36 percent of registered voters. Obama got 80 percent of the vote there in 2008.
In Democratic stronghold Martinsville at noon, turnout was out 34 percent of registered voters. Obama got 65 percent of the vote there in 2008.
Yancey Precinct In Augusta County has seen 1474 people vote as of 1 p.m., that’s 48 percent of the precinct’s registered voters. John McCain won Yancey Precinct 68 to 30 percent.
Bluefield media market and Withville we’re seeing 2 hour wait lines – this is coal country in VA. These are Romney voters.
WI:
Massive lines in Brookfield – a high 60’s GOP county – over 200 in line at 6:15am and polls did not open until 7.
We’re hearing reports of low turnout this morning in both Madison and Milwaukee.
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BYE 333386!!!
(http://i.imagebanana.com/img/qrcm027g/fbf.gif)
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Based on what?
Obama's only up about 84,000 on early voting. He was up 340,000 against McCain. Romney's right behind him and if Romney at least matches the turnout McCain got, he can surpass Obama in Ohio.
I thought romney was going to win all day long. Told everyone I know "I smell a dewey upset..."
however
at this point, when the FOX news stats guys are saying it's over... I'm thinking it's over. Cali still not in.
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LANDSLIDE COMING!!
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Michael Barone just talked about that (youth vote being down) on Hannity.
hahahahaha
Hannity that fucking moron, see MCWAY you live in a fantasy world. Your life is nothing but self serving lies. Unlike you I don't need an afterlife, I don't deny reality and alter things to suit my views (evolution), I don't listen to biased asshats like Hannity. Take a good look at all this bullshit you have been spewing around here and understand it is but a microcosm of your life.
lies lies and more lies.
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I think we should just all wait until MCWAY posts the early voting number in Florida before we call this one.
MCWAY can you post that video again. This needs further examination.
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Charles Krauthammer giving a nice list of why GOP lost.... the reason? A weak GOP field.
This is pretty much what clueless libs said long ago.
He said Romney was the only one that was remotely electable.
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LANDSLIDE COMING!!
CANT BE A LANDSLIDE IF YOU CAN"T WIN THE POPULAR VOTE
ALSO SOMEONE START A SUICIDEWATCH FOR THAT MCWAY PUTZ
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Charles Krauthammer giving a nice list of why GOP lost.... the reason? A weak GOP field.
This is pretty much what clueless libs said long ago.
He said Romney was the only one that was remotely electable.
I would say they lost because they lied to the point of hilarity, the party is a joke now, all but a few good repubs remain. The party needs to get off the far right ledge and stop with the religious, woman hating bullshit.
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I would say they lost because they lied to the point of hilarity, the party is a joke now, all but a few good repubs remain. The party needs to get off the far right ledge and stop with the religious, woman hating bullshit.
Romney did lie. A lot. He did change his position, a great deal.
He was just a terrible candidate. If you could have invented a movie character as the worst possible out-of-touch rich dude running for prez, it would have been mitt.
He had SO MANY moments that would have sunk ANY other campaign. He ignored reporters for the entire LAST MONTH. He painted himself orange to go be on univision.
He was McCain II. That's it.
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Romney did lie. A lot. He did change his position, a great deal.
He was just a terrible candidate. If you could have invented a movie character as the worst possible out-of-touch rich dude running for prez, it would have been mitt.
He had SO MANY moments that would have sunk ANY other campaign. He ignored reporters for the entire LAST MONTH. He painted himself orange to go be on univision.
He was McCain II. That's it.
Now you are sounding like an idiot.
Romney was worlds better than Mccain and better than Obama. If the media was so democrat....
I just don't get it.
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Romney did lie. A lot. He did change his position, a great deal.
He was just a terrible candidate. If you could have invented a movie character as the worst possible out-of-touch rich dude running for prez, it would have been mitt.
He had SO MANY moments that would have sunk ANY other campaign. He ignored reporters for the entire LAST MONTH. He painted himself orange to go be on univision.
He was McCain II. That's it.
240, just curious...
You predicted a Romney win earlier just by a hair. What prompted that decision?
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240, just curious...
You predicted a Romney win earlier just by a hair. What prompted that decision?
I believed the NARRATIVE was so strong, that it would happen. An upset that would make for amazing ratings over 2 weeks of counts, etc.
Many obama voters didn't bother. I knew that. Independents went romney's way, sure.
However - I underestimated how much the republican base hated Romney - and it appears they didn't bother to vote for him.
I didn't realize how much far-right republicans, actual constitutional conservatives, hated Romney. Now I do.
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I believed the NARRATIVE was so strong, that it would happen. An upset that would make for amazing ratings over 2 weeks of counts, etc.
Many obama voters didn't bother. I knew that. Independents went romney's way, sure.
However - I underestimated how much the republican base hated Romney - and it appears they didn't bother to vote for him.
I didn't realize how much far-right republicans, actual constitutional conservatives, hated Romney. Now I do.
I don`t think thats the case at all. They ALL voted for Romney using the Anyone but Obama logic. They voted more so than normal. They didn`t vote for Romney, they voted against Obama and did so in as large numbers as they could muster up.
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Can we kill this thread yet?
Seems silly since there is no victory here.
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I don`t think thats the case at all. They ALL voted for Romney using the Anyone but Obama logic. They voted more so than normal. They didn`t vote for Romney, they voted against Obama and did so in as large numbers as they could muster up.
I think we will see the Repub voting numbers were down from 2004.
I remember that 18% of the 2004 voters just stayed home in 2008.
I wonder how many stayed home this time?
There needs to be a HUGE change in the GOP. They don't know if they're reagan or ron paul or RINOs or what.
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Can we kill this thread yet?
Seems silly since there is no victory here.
Not yet. We are still waiting on MCWAY to post Florida`s early voting data and that Video in Ohio and the rest of his "stats".
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Not yet. We are still waiting on MCWAY to post Florida`s early voting data and that Video in Ohio and the rest of his "stats".
Then this thread will never die!
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Not yet. We are still waiting on MCWAY to post Florida`s early voting data and that Video in Ohio and the rest of his "stats".
My early voting data was already posted. As I said, Obama's numbers were down from 2008 and they were.
The question was whether Romney could close the gap with high GOP turnout. The answer to that obviously was "No".
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I think we will see the Repub voting numbers were down from 2004.
I remember that 18% of the 2004 voters just stayed home in 2008.
I wonder how many stayed home this time?
There needs to be a HUGE change in the GOP. They don't know if they're reagan or ron paul or RINOs or what.
Reagan would be a RINO at this point by todays GOP standards.
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Wi CO PA NV? how did they go obama? illegals? unions?
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Wi CO PA NV? how did they go obama? illegals? unions?
all went to Obama because they have densely populated areas that vote democratic.
Pretty simple.
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Wi CO PA NV? how did they go obama? illegals? unions?
ROFLMAO are you REALLY in disbelief? I bet you feel like you have been severely lied to.
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Now you are sounding like an idiot.
Romney was worlds better than Mccain and better than Obama. If the media was so democrat....
I just don't get it.
Just accept the fact your retarded...
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Wi CO PA NV? how did they go obama? illegals? unions?
Illegals can't vote champ :D
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Now you are sounding like an idiot.
Romney was worlds better than Mccain and better than Obama. If the media was so democrat....
I just don't get it.
romney was a disaster.
No conviction in the guy.
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(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=446960.0;attach=491104;image)
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Reagan would be a RINO at this point by todays GOP standards.
That has more to do with limitations on what he was able to say and do during the time he was president. Philosophically he was just as conservative as any modern conservative. Republicans weren't as "out of the closet" ideologically as they are today.
Over the last thirty years the conservatives have been slowly introducing more rigidly conservative policy to the public and convincing them it is in their best interest. The idea was to introduce these policies incrementally as they might be rejected as to radical if introduced all at once and to quickly.
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There needs to be a HUGE change in the GOP. They don't know if they're reagan or ron paul or RINOs or what.
The two most drastic options are a lurch toward even more social conservatism as the Santorums of the party argue that nominating moderates is a surefire way to lose, or a libertarian revolution. It's pretty obvious which of the two is more desirable.
The most likely option, meanwhile, is that 'Republican' will continue to be an umbrella term that refers to pretty disparate interests all clumped together. The party's electability in a given election cycle will be determined by what compromises the disparate groups come to that year; e.g., if the social conservatives manage to get anti-homosexual measures on the platform in exchange for concessions to the other party factions, the party will suffer since attitudes toward homosexuality are becoming more liberal by the decade.
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Charles Krauthammer giving a nice list of why GOP lost.... the reason? A weak GOP field.
This is pretty much what clueless libs said long ago.
He said Romney was the only one that was remotely electable.
Back when I used to post here regularly, this was one of my last posts (from a year ago) and it was actually a response to you:
I think 2012 is shaping up to look a lot like 2004. Democrats overestimated how much Bush was loathed and ended up getting behind a candidate no one was excited about. I think the Republicans have been trying to coronate their own electrifying star, but they all just end up imploding.
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=403734.msg5750702#msg5750702
That post is from nearly a year ago. I kinda abandoned this board because 333's posts really rose to the level of spam at a certain point and it was obvious that even he didn't believe them. I made a few more posts after that, but that was the last post I made about the presidential election. Even though I would log on once in a while, and even though I would get the urge to jump into the fray once in a while, I was always like "Why bother? You know how this bullshit is gonna play out." It was completely obvious. No one was excited about Romney or any of his predecessors. No one was excited to meet him and no one was excited about his policies. He just seemed like maybe he was kinda sorta the best choice to possibly get the job done if no one else was available.
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I kinda abandoned this board because 333's posts really rose to the level of spam at a certain point
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Back when I used to post here regularly, this was one of my last posts (from a year ago) and it was actually a response to you:
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=403734.msg5750702#msg5750702
That post is from nearly a year ago. I kinda abandoned this board because 333's posts really rose to the level of spam at a certain point and it was obvious that even he didn't believe them. I made a few more posts after that, but that was the last post I made about the presidential election. Even though I would log on once in a while, and even though I would get the urge to jump into the fray once in a while, I was always like "Why bother? You know how this bullshit is gonna play out." It was completely obvious. No one was excited about Romney or any of his predecessors. No one was excited to meet him and no one was excited about his policies. He just seemed like maybe he was kinda sorta the best choice to possibly get the job done if no one else was available.
welcome back brutha 8)
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it's going to be fun watching 333 and McWay console each other
At least mc showed, lets hope 333 nuse broke :D
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At least mc showed, lets hope 333 nuse broke :D
ROFLMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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all went to Obama because they have densely populated areas that vote democratic.
Pretty simple.
illegals then?
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see, the dems KNOW what they are. Hilary and Obama were 99% the same on the issues.
But the GOP? Huntsman and Santorum are different on half the issues!
Until they decide what they are, they can't win. The GOP base didn't vote in 2008 and they didn't vote today either. The cost of obamacare and 7 trillion in debt was TWO STATES - that's it!
Repubs, please, figure out what you stand for. We have 3 parties right now... Dems, Moderate/RINOs, and Tea Party. Dems keep winning with 40% of the nation behind them.
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see, the dems KNOW what they are. Hilary and Obama were 99% the same on the issues.
But the GOP? Huntsman and Santorum are different on half the issues!
Until they decide what they are, they can't win. The GOP base didn't vote in 2008 and they didn't vote today either. The cost of obamacare and 7 trillion in debt was TWO STATES - that's it!
Repubs, please, figure out what you stand for. We have 3 parties right now... Dems, Moderate/RINOs, and Tea Party. Dems keep winning with 40% of the nation behind them.
They need to blow it up and get with the times. They can keep selling tax cuts for the rich tax increase for everyone else,SS/Medicare cuts,no write offs ect, people aren't buying what they are selling...
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you can't bullshit people with the internet. dems KNEW about embassy attack. Repubs KNEW about romney's dozen flip flops.
You can't say one thing to one room, and another to the next, without being busted.
obama realized that and publicly admitted his shitty positions. Romney is old and out of touch - thought he could say things in certain rooms, never expected a 47% videotape or all the youtube clips showing him flipping.
The new canddiate in 2016 needs to be shrewd and younger and wiser. businessman? Romney, Perot, no that's not working...
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you can't bullshit people with the internet. dems KNEW about embassy attack. Repubs KNEW about romney's dozen flip flops.
You can't say one thing to one room, and another to the next, without being busted.
obama realized that and publicly admitted his shitty positions. Romney is old and out of touch - thought he could say things in certain rooms, never expected a 47% videotape or all the youtube clips showing him flipping.
The new canddiate in 2016 needs to be shrewd and younger and wiser. businessman? Romney, Perot, no that's not working...
calm down commy
Obama admitted nothing and had candy lie for him on national TV in debate 2.
I blame schools and media.
When government schools brainwash kids this hard is sickening.
There is no logical explanation for an obama win.
Guy was worst president by numbers in history.
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Can we kill this thread yet?
Seems silly since there is no victory here.
Are you kidding me? This is GOLDEN!
It can be the thorn in 333386's eye, that just won't go away, ...and a sticky at that! ;D ;D
I wonder how he's ever going to live this down? Probably run off with his tail between his legs, bottle of vodka in hand, and claim his power hasn't been restored yet. Cheer up 333, after all, there's always Sarah Palin in 2016. ;D
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Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Disreport ^
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 12:29:15 PM by Arthurio
by Trevor Antley and Calvin Roberts.
Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Abstract: Actual reported early voting data requires that early voting will represent no more than 32% of total vote in Ohio, while virtually every poll was weighted for early voting to occupy ~35-40% of total votes cast. The smaller-than-expected number of early votes means one of two things: 1) 2012 will see historically low voter turnout in Ohio; or 2) Mitt Romney has a much better chance at Ohio than polls assumed.
Late Monday night the Ohio Secretary of State released the “final” early voting results from Ohio’s counties. The results got the attention — and slight consternation — of the New York Times’ Nate Silver. Dave Wasserman kindly put the data into a spreadsheet here, which tabulates early voting results by county and compares that data to early voting results from 2008. Wasserman’s spreadsheet also notes Kerry’s 2004 margins and Obama’s 2008 margins, allowing one to effectively deduce the partisan-leanings of each county.
In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wisserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”
Seemingly overlooked by Silver, however, during the discussion of county-by-county results was the simple number of total reported early votes: a meager 1,787,346. As stated above, this number shows a 2.44% increase in early voting from 2008 — but the number is still surprisingly low. Virtually every Ohio poll this cycle was weighted on the basis that early voting would occupy a massive chunk of the total Ohio vote. Rasmussen’s final poll ceded 40% of the total vote to early voters (EVs). PPP gave EV’s a more reasonable 35%. The Columbus Dispatch calculated early voting to take up an astounding 47% of the total Ohio vote. Almost every other Ohio poll seems to have weighted early voting between 35% and 45% of the total vote.
The reported early voting numbers, however, show that virtually every single Ohio poll overestimated the amount of early votes cast. If early voting is calculated at 1,787,346, in order for total voter turnout to rival 2004 numbers, early voting cannot occupy more than 32% of the total votes cast — and even in that scenario, that high of a percentage means that total voter turnout will be lower than it was in 2008. In order for turnout to match 2008 levels, early voting can only account for 31% of total votes cast.
The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.
Our forecast is based largely on the reported margins between Romney and Obama among early voters and election day voters as reported by the Columbus Dispatch, Rasmussen, and other polls (all polling data considered is represented in the graphic below). The Columbus Dispatch gives Obama +15% among early voters; Rasmussen gives him a much wider 23%. Other polls for Ohio EVs: CNN/Opinion Research, Obama +28; Gravis Marketing, Obama +13; PPP, Obama +21. For our forecast we assumed a more conservative Obama +18 among EVs, averaging Rasmussen and the Columbus Dispatch.
In 2008 Obama won 58% of early voting against John McCain, who had virtually no get-out-the-vote infrastructure in Ohio; our model, giving Obama a 18% lead, again assumes he will win that 58% of early voters despite the fact that Mitt Romney is putting forth a much more competitive get-out-the-vote campaign and disregarding the GOP-leaning trend in early voting results of individual Ohio counties. When one considers the results from individual Ohio counties this cycle, Obama’s actual margin among EVs may actually be much lower (although without specific partisan data, it’s also possible that Obama’s margins have actually increased — although this seems extraordinarily more unlikely). But because this is impossible to determine without actual breakdowns of the early vote, which are not yet available, those implications are not included in this model.
In determining the margin among election day voters, the same polls were considered. For election day voters, Rasmussen has Romney +15; Columbus Dispatch, Romney +11; and CNN/Opinion Research, Romney +13. PPP and Gravis Marketing both had Romney’s election day margins at a much smaller +3. For our forecast, we assume Romney’s election day voter margins at 13%, an average of the first three polls. The consistency and disparity between the first three and the latter two polls made it difficult to average them since margins of error do not explain such a clear discrepancy between the two groups.
In this scenario — which seems to be supported by the majority of polls and early voting trends (but is notably not supported by all polls, as seen in the previous paragraph) — Romney should win Ohio. Based on these assumptions — which in turn are based on a combination of polling data and the state’s actual reported early vote — if early voting accounts for 32% of the vote (a very conservative number which would place total voter turnout slightly below that of 2004), Romney wins by a whopping 50.9% to Obama’s 47.8%. The higher voter turnout is — and therefore the lower the percentage of early votes in total votes — the higher Romney’s margin becomes.
In this scenario, even if we assume our model’s margins between Obama and Romney among early voters and election day voters are somehow skewed in Romney’s favor, Romney still has padding that those margins could be reduced and he still wins. If early voting is only 31% of the total vote — putting Ohio’s total vote at just above 2008 levels — Romney has incredibly more wiggle room.
The lower-than-anticipated turnout among early voters suggests the Obama campaign’s lead in Ohio was largely hot air. And this does not even seriously consider the county-by-county early voting results, which appear to be even more damaging to Obama.
Reasons Why This Projection May Turn Out to be Wrong
In the case that the final early voting numbers reported by the Ohio secretary of state are incorrect and the final early voting results will include statistically significant additions, obviously this projection will have no meaning. As seen above, some of the polling data used in the projection (such as Romney’s margin among election day voters) is supported by several independent polling organizations but not by some others. If it turns out that the fewer polls’ results were right, then obviously our entire model is skewed too heavily towards Romney. Some have raised the possibility that effects from Hurricane Sandy stifled early voting in the final days and these early voters will simply vote for Obama on election day, increasing his election day margins beyond what polls indicated. In this scenario the polls are essentially still correct; Obama’s early voting margin was simply reallocated to his election day margin. There is no solid data to show that this is the case, but it is certainly possible. There is always the chance that the government and electorate will decide simply to defer to Nate Silver’s forecast and forget this whole voting nonsense. Since our forecast is based largely on actual votes, not subjectively weighted aggregates of polls, this would make our projection essentially meaningless. About these ads
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LOSER!
-
Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Disreport ^
Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 12:29:15 PM by Arthurio
by Trevor Antley and Calvin Roberts.
Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio
Abstract: Actual reported early voting data requires that early voting will represent no more than 32% of total vote in Ohio, while virtually every poll was weighted for early voting to occupy ~35-40% of total votes cast. The smaller-than-expected number of early votes means one of two things: 1) 2012 will see historically low voter turnout in Ohio; or 2) Mitt Romney has a much better chance at Ohio than polls assumed.
Late Monday night the Ohio Secretary of State released the “final” early voting results from Ohio’s counties. The results got the attention — and slight consternation — of the New York Times’ Nate Silver. Dave Wasserman kindly put the data into a spreadsheet here, which tabulates early voting results by county and compares that data to early voting results from 2008. Wasserman’s spreadsheet also notes Kerry’s 2004 margins and Obama’s 2008 margins, allowing one to effectively deduce the partisan-leanings of each county.
In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wisserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”
Seemingly overlooked by Silver, however, during the discussion of county-by-county results was the simple number of total reported early votes: a meager 1,787,346. As stated above, this number shows a 2.44% increase in early voting from 2008 — but the number is still surprisingly low. Virtually every Ohio poll this cycle was weighted on the basis that early voting would occupy a massive chunk of the total Ohio vote. Rasmussen’s final poll ceded 40% of the total vote to early voters (EVs). PPP gave EV’s a more reasonable 35%. The Columbus Dispatch calculated early voting to take up an astounding 47% of the total Ohio vote. Almost every other Ohio poll seems to have weighted early voting between 35% and 45% of the total vote.
The reported early voting numbers, however, show that virtually every single Ohio poll overestimated the amount of early votes cast. If early voting is calculated at 1,787,346, in order for total voter turnout to rival 2004 numbers, early voting cannot occupy more than 32% of the total votes cast — and even in that scenario, that high of a percentage means that total voter turnout will be lower than it was in 2008. In order for turnout to match 2008 levels, early voting can only account for 31% of total votes cast.
The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.
Our forecast is based largely on the reported margins between Romney and Obama among early voters and election day voters as reported by the Columbus Dispatch, Rasmussen, and other polls (all polling data considered is represented in the graphic below). The Columbus Dispatch gives Obama +15% among early voters; Rasmussen gives him a much wider 23%. Other polls for Ohio EVs: CNN/Opinion Research, Obama +28; Gravis Marketing, Obama +13; PPP, Obama +21. For our forecast we assumed a more conservative Obama +18 among EVs, averaging Rasmussen and the Columbus Dispatch.
In 2008 Obama won 58% of early voting against John McCain, who had virtually no get-out-the-vote infrastructure in Ohio; our model, giving Obama a 18% lead, again assumes he will win that 58% of early voters despite the fact that Mitt Romney is putting forth a much more competitive get-out-the-vote campaign and disregarding the GOP-leaning trend in early voting results of individual Ohio counties. When one considers the results from individual Ohio counties this cycle, Obama’s actual margin among EVs may actually be much lower (although without specific partisan data, it’s also possible that Obama’s margins have actually increased — although this seems extraordinarily more unlikely). But because this is impossible to determine without actual breakdowns of the early vote, which are not yet available, those implications are not included in this model.
In determining the margin among election day voters, the same polls were considered. For election day voters, Rasmussen has Romney +15; Columbus Dispatch, Romney +11; and CNN/Opinion Research, Romney +13. PPP and Gravis Marketing both had Romney’s election day margins at a much smaller +3. For our forecast, we assume Romney’s election day voter margins at 13%, an average of the first three polls. The consistency and disparity between the first three and the latter two polls made it difficult to average them since margins of error do not explain such a clear discrepancy between the two groups.
In this scenario — which seems to be supported by the majority of polls and early voting trends (but is notably not supported by all polls, as seen in the previous paragraph) — Romney should win Ohio. Based on these assumptions — which in turn are based on a combination of polling data and the state’s actual reported early vote — if early voting accounts for 32% of the vote (a very conservative number which would place total voter turnout slightly below that of 2004), Romney wins by a whopping 50.9% to Obama’s 47.8%. The higher voter turnout is — and therefore the lower the percentage of early votes in total votes — the higher Romney’s margin becomes.
In this scenario, even if we assume our model’s margins between Obama and Romney among early voters and election day voters are somehow skewed in Romney’s favor, Romney still has padding that those margins could be reduced and he still wins. If early voting is only 31% of the total vote — putting Ohio’s total vote at just above 2008 levels — Romney has incredibly more wiggle room.
The lower-than-anticipated turnout among early voters suggests the Obama campaign’s lead in Ohio was largely hot air. And this does not even seriously consider the county-by-county early voting results, which appear to be even more damaging to Obama.
Reasons Why This Projection May Turn Out to be Wrong
In the case that the final early voting numbers reported by the Ohio secretary of state are incorrect and the final early voting results will include statistically significant additions, obviously this projection will have no meaning. As seen above, some of the polling data used in the projection (such as Romney’s margin among election day voters) is supported by several independent polling organizations but not by some others. If it turns out that the fewer polls’ results were right, then obviously our entire model is skewed too heavily towards Romney. Some have raised the possibility that effects from Hurricane Sandy stifled early voting in the final days and these early voters will simply vote for Obama on election day, increasing his election day margins beyond what polls indicated. In this scenario the polls are essentially still correct; Obama’s early voting margin was simply reallocated to his election day margin. There is no solid data to show that this is the case, but it is certainly possible. There is always the chance that the government and electorate will decide simply to defer to Nate Silver’s forecast and forget this whole voting nonsense. Since our forecast is based largely on actual votes, not subjectively weighted aggregates of polls, this would make our projection essentially meaningless. About these ads
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Wrong
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Wrong
Just wait for the early voting numbers.
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Just wait for the early voting numbers.
Still ribbing me about that?
The early voting numbers were as I said they were......WAAAY DOWN from 2008.
I mentioned, from the get-go, that Romney had to close the gap on election day. But, thanks to his bleeding Latino voters, that didn't happen.
He didn't get Virginia or Florida or Colorado (where he was actually ahead in early voting) and barely got North Carolina, as a result.
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Still ribbing me about that?
The early voting numbers were as I said they were......WAAAY DOWN from 2008.
I mentioned, from the get-go, that Romney had to close the gap on election day. But, thanks to his bleeding Latino voters, that didn't happen.
He didn't get Virginia or Florida or Colorado (where he was actually ahead in early voting) and barely got North Carolina, as a result.
You ignored all reports and raw data contrary to the "early voting" numbers. You placed all your weight into that one stat, while others like Nate silver got it right because he looked at all the data.
you were and still are in the midst of confirmation bias.
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Obama got 10 million fewer votes.
And he still won.
WTF
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Obama got 10 million fewer votes.
And he still won.
WTF
10 million fewer than what? Current count is 60 million for Obama and 57 million for Romney
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10 million fewer than what? Current count is 60 million for Obama and 57 million for Romney
From the last election.
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You ignored all reports and raw data contrary to the "early voting" numbers. You placed all your weight into that one stat, while others like Nate silver got it right because he looked at all the data.
you were and still are in the midst of confirmation bias.
No, I didn't. I cited those polls, along with the internals. Hence, I got the numbers for the independents and the female vote.
Romney got higher numbers with white voters, with males, with independents and did better in early voting than McCain did.
But, he DID NOT close the gap by getting the turnout on election day. And I repeatedly stated that his doing such was pivotal to his winning. I said he had to at least MATCH McCain. He didn't even do that, especially with Latinos.
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Still ribbing me about that?
The early voting numbers were as I said they were......WAAAY DOWN from 2008.
I mentioned, from the get-go, that Romney had to close the gap on election day. But, thanks to his bleeding Latino voters, that didn't happen.
He didn't get Virginia or Florida or Colorado (where he was actually ahead in early voting) and barely got North Carolina, as a result.
As i mentioned at least a few times, given that many states cut way back on early voting it makes perfect sense for the numbers to be down but that would only mean those people would now have to vote on election day which is exactly what happened
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As i mentioned at least a few times, given that many states cut way back on early voting it makes perfect sense for the numbers to be down but that would only mean those people would now have to vote on election day which is exactly what happened
But, that wasn't quite the case in the swing states, which I listed.
Romney simply didn't close the deal.
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But, that wasn't quite the case in the swing states, which I listed.
Romney simply didn't close the deal.
I don't recall those posts
You're saying you listed swing states where early voter turnout was the same or greater than 2008?
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I don't recall those posts
You're saying you listed swing states where early voter turnout was the same or greater than 2008?
You didn't see the numbers I posted from Politico, citing the swing states, the numbers of early votes that had been tallied and how many went to the Dems vs. the GOP?
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You didn't see the numbers I posted from Politico, citing the swing states, the numbers of early votes that had been tallied and how many went to the Dems vs. the GOP?
Sorry man, i cant recall all of your posts
BTW. I give you credit for showing up today
I think you're the only one to show up and take your lumps
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SOMEONE call the hospitals; the psych wards....
333386 is missing.
He's presumed armed and dangerous - to himself.
Please come back !!!
[ hint-if you only had posted a few more anti Obama posts I'm sure all these months of your rants would have made a difference here]
I miss my bro.
sorta like Ennis missed Jack.
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SOMEONE call the hospitals; the psych wards....
333386 is missing.
He's presumed armed and dangerous - to himself.
Please come back !!!
[ hint-if you only had posted a few more anti Obama posts I'm sure all these months of your rants would have made a difference here]
I miss my bro.
sorta like Ennis missed Jack.
We will always have the Search and Back button. Something tells me in my heart that he won`t quit us just yet.
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Obama got 10 million fewer votes.
And he still won.
WTF
2 reasons... Republican social issues at a national level are a disaster and the fact that people are apathetic to the system in the first place.
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(http://www.superficialgallery.com/wp-content/uploads/Obama_dancing.jpg)
/thread