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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: timfogarty on August 13, 2016, 02:49:45 PM
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It's 86 days until this election is over, and it's a given that Hilary Clinton will win. What happens after that?
The question is whether Trump is the problem, or a symptom. During most of the 20th century the Republican party was the party of business, but they were also always the minority party, not having control of the House for 40 years straight. But once they teamed up with Christian Evangelicals, they started winning more and more. However, the establishment Republicans only gave lip service to the desires of the Religious Right, who finally revoted with the Tea Party coalition. Now these people are Trump supporters, even though Trump's views do not align with Tea Party doctrine at all.
I've written before how the Dixiecrats of the 60s and 70s became the Reagan Democrats of the 80s, which became the Tea Party of the 2000s.
Everyone likes to think they're part of the silent majority. Trump supporters certainly do. But they are far from it. Trump supporters are predominately older white male Christian. One third of the electorate is white Christian. Some Christians are liberal. Feeding the poor more important than judging the gays. White women support Trump much less than white men, even in the Evangelicals. So the base of the Republican party is maybe one sixth of the electorate. Simple math shows that nominating someone true to the values of one sixth of the electorate is not going to stand a chance in the general election, especially when many of the values they hold dear are anti-people in the other 5/6ths.
There are Republicans who could have given Hillary a run for her money. John Kasich for one. But there is no way the base of the Republican party (formerly the Tea Party, now just angry older white men) would support someone they saw as a Republican In Name Only. Neither John McCann nor Mitt Romney met their litmus test, and they weren't going down that route again.
In 1994 California Republicans pushed an extreme anti-immigrant proposition, Prop 187. They barely won in the general election, but the law was quickly overturned as unconstitutional. But by passing this prop, they drove immigrants into the arms of the Democratic party. Twenty two years later, Californian Democrats control all branches of government, and have a super-majority in both houses of the state legislature. (and oh yeah, California is doing just fine economically, thank you.) And because of our jungle primary, the top two vote getters to go to the general election in November are both Democrats.
These angry white male Trump supporters are now doing the same to the national Republican party. Asian and latinos are now firmly in the arms of the Democratic party. Young people, even young evangelicals, are identifying as Democratic too.
So what happens next? My guess is that Republicans will do well in the 2018 elections. They always do better in off year elections. The Democratic base doesn't come out as much when it is not a presidential election. And the president's party always tend to loose some House seats in the second year of their administration. But by doing well in 2018, Republicans will forget any lessons from 2016.
What happens in 2020 ? Establishment Republicans have lost control of their party. No way they'll get their choice for the 2020 presidential nominee. It will be another demagogue that appeals to angry white men. My bet is someone like Curt Schilling. Won't stand a chance in the general.
And what about the Democratic party? I would love to see it split in two, a business friendly right of center party, and a progressive workers party. (I see Obama, Clinton and my senator Feinstein all as right of center)
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give them 20 years to recover
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He did beat 17 candidates, didn't he
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He did beat 17 candidates, didn't he
in a primary of a party where far right people dominate.
the numbers vary year to year, but let's say that 30% of the country are Republican, 30% are Democrat, and 40% are neither. In a general election, if all the Republicans vote for their candidate, and all the Democrats vote for theirs, you still have to get more than half of the independents to win. Anyone acceptable to the far right will not do well with the independents.
Another factor in all this is the right wing news bubble of Drugde and Fox News. The views of the angry white men are constantly being reinforced. No wonder they think they're the silent majority.
70% of Republicans believe Obama is not a natural born citizen of the US, and therefore not legally qualified to be president. (yet they have no problem with Ted Cruz who was born in Canada to an American mother and Cuban father, and until last year had dual citizenship.)
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He did beat 17 candidates, didn't he
He is representative of about 40% of base voters.
The others, like coach, just wanted to pick the winner so they voted for whoever fox said was the veto runner that week. "I am so happy I picked the winner". Yeah.
Most repubs aren't like trump.
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He is representative of about 40% of base voters.
The others, like coach, just wanted to pick the winner so they voted for whoever fox said was the veto runner that week. "I am so happy I picked the winner". Yeah.
Most repubs aren't like trump.
Why the fuck do you come on here and consistently lie all the time? When I get down to Davie later this year I seriously want to sit down with you and have a beer away from your computer and have this discussion. No, I don't want to fight. I just think you're lost without google.
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Have a feeling you without google would go something like this....
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coach, where do you get your information?
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It's 86 days until this election is over, and it's a given that Hilary Clinton will win. What happens after that?
The question is whether Trump is the problem, or a symptom. During most of the 20th century the Republican party was the party of business, but they were also always the minority party, not having control of the House for 40 years straight. But once they teamed up with Christian Evangelicals, they started winning more and more. However, the establishment Republicans only gave lip service to the desires of the Religious Right, who finally revoted with the Tea Party coalition. Now these people are Trump supporters, even though Trump's views do not align with Tea Party doctrine at all.
I've written before how the Dixiecrats of the 60s and 70s became the Reagan Democrats of the 80s, which became the Tea Party of the 2000s.
Everyone likes to think they're part of the silent majority. Trump supporters certainly do. But they are far from it. Trump supporters are predominately older white male Christian. One third of the electorate is white Christian. Some Christians are liberal. Feeding the poor more important than judging the gays. White women support Trump much less than white men, even in the Evangelicals. So the base of the Republican party is maybe one sixth of the electorate. Simple math shows that nominating someone true to the values of one sixth of the electorate is not going to stand a chance in the general election, especially when many of the values they hold dear are anti-people in the other 5/6ths.
There are Republicans who could have given Hillary a run for her money. John Kasich for one. But there is no way the base of the Republican party (formerly the Tea Party, now just angry older white men) would support someone they saw as a Republican In Name Only. Neither John McCann nor Mitt Romney met their litmus test, and they weren't going down that route again.
In 1994 California Republicans pushed an extreme anti-immigrant proposition, Prop 187. They barely won in the general election, but the law was quickly overturned as unconstitutional. But by passing this prop, they drove immigrants into the arms of the Democratic party. Twenty two years later, Californian Democrats control all branches of government, and have a super-majority in both houses of the state legislature. (and oh yeah, California is doing just fine economically, thank you.) And because of our jungle primary, the top two vote getters to go to the general election in November are both Democrats.
These angry white male Trump supporters are now doing the same to the national Republican party. Asian and latinos are now firmly in the arms of the Democratic party. Young people, even young evangelicals, are identifying as Democratic too.
So what happens next? My guess is that Republicans will do well in the 2018 elections. They always do better in off year elections. The Democratic base doesn't come out as much when it is not a presidential election. And the president's party always tend to loose some House seats in the second year of their administration. But by doing well in 2018, Republicans will forget any lessons from 2016.
What happens in 2020 ? Establishment Republicans have lost control of their party. No way they'll get their choice for the 2020 presidential nominee. It will be another demagogue that appeals to angry white men. My bet is someone like Curt Schilling. Won't stand a chance in the general.
And what about the Democratic party? I would love to see it split in two, a business friendly right of center party, and a progressive workers party. (I see Obama, Clinton and my senator Feinstein all as right of center)
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Why the fuck do you come on here and consistently lie all the time? When I get down to Davie later this year I seriously want to sit down with you and have a beer away from your computer and have this discussion. No, I don't want to fight. I just think you're lost without google.
Lol do I seriously strike you as the type that has to look stuff up to remember it?
No. Nobody else would accuse me of that. Accuse me of being annoying as fck, I admit that. But "forgetful"? Lol! Nope. My ability to remember random stuff from 12 years ago is why I'm most annoying.
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Are you going to cry when Trump wins? Clint was right, total pussy generation. We are going to make America so strong, so wealthy, and you naysayers are going to have nothing to say about it. We're going to win so much! The American people have been taken advantage of by the special interests, foreign countries and we put fake leaders that will refuse to put their people first, I'm so glad we have Mr. Trump running and fighting the Washington establishment that literally works to make us all dead last in the world. No more will we sacrifice our country or its people to the false song of globalism.
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Are you going to cry when Trump wins? Clint was right, total pussy generation. We are going to make America so strong, so wealthy, and you naysayers are going to have nothing to say about it. We're going to win so much! The American people have been taken advantage of by the special interests, foreign countries and we put fake leaders that will refuse to put their people first, I'm so glad we have Mr. Trump running and fighting the Washington establishment that literally works to make us all dead last in the world. No more will we sacrifice our country or its people to the false song of globalism.
You have to be trolling. Jesus H.
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If trump wins, I'll celebrate his new tax rate, look fwd yo him spilling the beans on 911, and probably enjoy is way more than if Hilary wins. Obama is boring, Hilary would be boring. I just like to debate on getbig.
If if if trump gets on all state ballots in the next few weeks- then he pulls outta race or otherwise signals he doesn't care... I think that'd be plenty of proof this was his plan all along, to make Hilary's path as easy as possible.
Trump is so popular among a quarter of the nation. His new network will be a massive success.
He played this section brilliantly. So what holiday does he use to announce he's slipping out? When is Labor Day lol...
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How does he pull out and not anger that 25 percent?
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Sorry Coach, I can't keep up with all of these threads outside the Political board. G&O is lost ... i'm pulling out (no bigmikecox)
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Lol do I seriously strike you as the type that has to look stuff up to remember it?
No. Nobody else would accuse me of that. Accuse me of being annoying as fck, I admit that. But "forgetful"? Lol! Nope. My ability to remember random stuff from 12 years ago is why I'm most annoying.
Yes, totally 1000%. The second a new story comes out you post it and think you know everything about it. Shit, take police shootings, you IMMEDIATLY draw your own conclusions and post up your cop hate propaganda.
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Sorry Coach, I can't keep up with all of these threads outside the Political board. G&O is lost ... i'm pulling out (no bigmikecox)
Just as an FYI it's always like this on the G&O during election season that's why Ron or other mods usually don't move the threads. It gets heated and Ron is a conservative.
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Trump vs. Hillary = like choosing between two STDs
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Trump vs. Hillary = like choosing between two STDs
This is the most factual post in any thread.
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Trump vs. Hillary = like choosing between two STDs
Which STD is Hillary and which STD is Trump?
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I agree that Hillary is likely going to be elected, but I laugh at anyone who "knows the future."
If you think Trump has 0% chance of winning you are not following current events.
The anti-Brexit vote was up by 14%!!! just hours before they lost.
This is a Black Swan election.
Stay sane, go for walks, hug your kids and seek meaning outside of politics...
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in a primary of a party where far right people dominate.
ROTFL!!!!!!
LMAO!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!
YEAH NO.
The party eliets are all liberal interventionist globalists
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Which STD is Hillary and which STD is Trump?
Corporations and 2 political "parties" intermingling = HIV, i.e. there's no cure unless something's done to this very unhealthy system. Designed for corruption to flourish.
Hillary = Chlamydia - can lead to serious consequences if not treated properly
Trump = Syphilis - do nothing and die
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Republicans say Trump has three-weeks to turn things around or face full-scale abandonment
Is Trump in danger of losing GOP?
Donald Trump is in danger of losing his grip on the Republican Party as fears grow that he’s headed for a landslide defeat in November that will wipe out GOP majorities in Congress.
The cascade of Republicans seeking separation from Trump reached new levels this week and was punctuated by several high-profile defections, including centrist GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. Scores of current and former Republican lawmakers and officials have similarly declared their intention to either sit this election out or cross party lines in the fall.
Three weeks removed from the Republican convention, polls show that Trump failed to increase support from within his own party, even as Democrats and former supporters of Bernie Sanders have steadily moved behind Hillary Clinton. There is a growing chorus of conservatives calling on the Republican National Committee to cut Trump loose and direct its resources to protecting GOP majorities in the House and Senate.
Republicans see the presidential race approaching a crossroads. They say Trump has about a three-week window to turn things around or face full-scale abandonment by the national party.
-snip-
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/291310-is-trump-in-danger-of-losing-gop
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^^^^ More dishonest hit pieces that you fall for every time.
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The Trump revolution will not be televised.
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He is representative of about 40% of base voters.
The others, like coach, just wanted to pick the winner so they voted for whoever fox said was the veto runner that week. "I am so happy I picked the winner". Yeah.
Most repubs aren't like trump.
Yes, most are. And this election is finally opening their eyes up as to what has been going on for years. Some are morons who have been coopted by Globalism and the big money shills who pimp "conservative" principles but then sell out America.
Most Republicans are for massively reduced immigration if not a total freeze for a few years at least, appointing Supreme Court judges who are pro 2nd Amednment and aren't the next Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and are pro law enforcement.
Every time it comes up for an actual vote of the people, the immigration issue is a big win for Republicans, and those who want to drastically limit it.
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How does he pull out and not anger that 25 percent?
This is one of my questions regarding the pull out. If he does, he has no shot at a television station, so it makes no sense for him to do so. There'd be a boycott of his brand which would sink him financially. Just my thoughts.
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This is one of my questions regarding the pull out. If he does, he has no shot at a television station, so it makes no sense for him to do so. There'd be a boycott of his brand which would sink him financially. Just my thoughts.
Not him formally pulling out.
It'd just be him signaling he doesn't care. Lack of offices opening. Lack of cooperation with rnc. Lack of campaigning, skipping debates... Just riding out the clock quietly like Ben Carson did.
He needs his name on the ballot so Hilary isn't facing another repub. but everyone will know he's conceded.
He has ONE office in the battleground state of Florida. He isn't trying.
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These are just silly DNC talking points being transparently floated to take attention away from emails showing pay for play, with worse coming.
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He needs his name on the ballot so Hilary isn't facing another repub. but everyone will know he's conceded.
It is already past the deadline for political parties to certify names of presidential candidates in a number of states. Many more before the end of August, most by 60 days before the election.
The deadline has already passed in Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia, all states a republican nominee would need to win. Any electoral votes won there would not be transferrable to the replacement candidate on the first ballot.
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I get a chuckle when Hill talks about what she's gonna do to Wall Street. Apparently, she forgot she was a Senator for the 8 years leading up to the financial crisis, in the same state of those evil bankers and did nothing.
As a New York State resident myself, I don't recall a less visible public official than Hillary. It's was as though she was in hiding. This is why I don't fear a Hillary Presidency. I know she won't do anything.
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She's gonna leave snail trails on all the chairs.
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I get a chuckle when Hill talks about what she's gonna do to Wall Street. Apparently, she forgot she was a Senator for the 8 years leading up to the financial crisis, in the same state of those evil bankers and did nothing.
As a New York State resident myself, I don't recall a less visible public official than Hillary. It's was as though she was in hiding. This is why I don't fear a Hillary Presidency. I know she won't do anything.
If you consider throwing the borders wide open for illegals and terrorists and appointing judges who will take away your gun rights nothing.
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It is already past the deadline for political parties to certify names of presidential candidates in a number of states. Many more before the end of August, most by 60 days before the election.
The deadline has already passed in Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia, all states a republican nominee would need to win. Any electoral votes won there would not be transferrable to the replacement candidate on the first ballot.
tim,
what do you think of Trump shifting his focus/criticism AWAY from hillay, and toward the MEDIA now?
Do you think he's just dumping the race now, even if he's not explicitly saying so, and moving on to set the stage for a much bigger showdown.... Donald Trump vs the American media?
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He's really giving Hillary a pass. Here's something he tweeted in the last 24 hrs:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
We now have confirmation as to one reason Crooked H wanted to be sure that nobody saw her e-mails - PAY-FOR-PLAY. How can she run for Pres.
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^^^^Yeah, if that's giving her a pass I don't know what would be an attack. Just wait for the "October suprise". ;)
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tim,
what do you think of Trump shifting his focus/criticism AWAY from hillay, and toward the MEDIA now?
Do you think he's just dumping the race now, even if he's not explicitly saying so, and moving on to set the stage for a much bigger showdown.... Donald Trump vs the American media?
I don't think he can think that far in advance. He entered the contest out of ego. He never wanted to do the actual work required to be president. In all his businesses there is no evidence that he is anything but a figurehead, a spokesman. I think he saw the presidency as the same, and if by some chance he won, he would just be a figurehead.
I think he has always treated this as a reality show. Reality shows needs drama and villains. The media is an easy target. Right now he's in it only for the ratings.
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If you consider throwing the borders wide open for illegals and terrorists and appointing judges who will take away your gun rights nothing.
With Hillary, what she says is meaningless. Better to look at what she does. The Libs are gonna be disappointed.
These are the Demographics of where she lives. Hill don't like the dark types near her:
As of the census[23] of 2000, there were 9,468 people, 3,118 households, and 2,687 families residing in the census-designated place. The population density was 389.7/km² (1,009.8/mi²). There were 3,181 housing units at an average density of 130.9/km² (339.3/mi²). The racial makeup of the CDP was 91.80% White, 0.94% African American, 0.03% Native American, 5.62% Asian, 0.02% Pacific Islander, 0.52% from other races, and 1.07% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2.55% of the population.
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To all liberals; Do people in the US really think Hillary will rise up against Islam? Don't you see what is happening in Europe?
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To all liberals; Do people in the US really think Hillary will rise up against Islam? Don't you see what is happening in Europe?
Hillary is too much of a neo-con and a hawk for my taste, too quick to send in drones, perhaps even troops, too likely to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. That she will be the first female president, she'll be even more likely to feel the need to prove she can be the commander-in-chief.
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The question posed here is After Trump. My question to this question is, when After Trump?
The reason I write this is because my guess is he's going to quit. His ego would not let him face defeat at the polls so he's going to drop out. My guess here is that will probably happen sometime after Labor Day or mid-September. He'll claim the election is rigged, that the media is all against him, that there'll be fraud at the polls, et cetera, et cetera.
So the question then is what happens next? I was just reading that The Republican National Committee's 168 members will pick a new nominee. Who will that be? Would it be Mike Pence, the VP candidate? Would any of the primary candidates come back and jump in, like say Ted Cruz (who would claim he got the second most number of primary votes)? I would bet there will be a lot of people who would want Paul Ryan to step in. No matter who is chosen, and especially if Ryan, Hillary will be in a whole new game.
If Trump does stay in and the polls look like Hillary is going to win in a landslide, what I fear is there will be a record low voter turnout. Usually when there's a low turnout Democrats do very poorly, which means Republicans would hold onto the Senate and the House. And thus we citizens then would be the losers due to at least 2 more years of Republican obstructionism.
As for 2020, assuming Hillary wins, I'm sure Cruz and Rubio will be back battling each other for the nomination.
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The question posed here is After Trump. My question to this question is, when After Trump?
The reason I write this is because my guess is he's going to quit. His ego would not let him face defeat at the polls so he's going to drop out. My guess here is that will probably happen sometime after Labor Day or mid-September. He'll claim the election is rigged, that the media is all against him, that there'll be fraud at the polls, et cetera, et cetera.
So the question then is what happens next? I was just reading that The Republican National Committee's 168 members will pick a new nominee. Who will that be? Would it be Mike Pence, the VP candidate? Would any of the primary candidates come back and jump in, like say Ted Cruz (who would claim he got the second most number of primary votes)? I would bet there will be a lot of people who would want Paul Ryan to step in. No matter who is chosen, and especially if Ryan, Hillary will be in a whole new game.
If Trump does stay in and the polls look like Hillary is going to win in a landslide, what I fear is there will be a record low voter turnout. Usually when there's a low turnout Democrats do very poorly, which means Republicans would hold onto the Senate and the House. And thus we citizens then would be the losers due to at least 2 more years of Republican obstructionism.
As for 2020, assuming Hillary wins, I'm sure Cruz and Rubio will be back battling each other for the nomination.
see - I don't think he will officially withdraw. Because that means someone like Pence can go ALL OUT, the party will have a RENEWED sense of purpose, and people WILL suddenly show up to vote.
IF HE IS A PLANT, he won't let the party be in a good position to come back at all on hilary. He'll ride that shit to the end. Pence/Ryan would mop the floor with hilary if they have a week to mobilize voters.
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So the question then is what happens next? I was just reading that The Republican National Committee's 168 members will pick a new nominee. Who will that be? Would it be Mike Pence, the VP candidate? Would any of the primary candidates come back and jump in, like say Ted Cruz (who would claim he got the second most number of primary votes)? I would bet there will be a lot of people who would want Paul Ryan to step in. No matter who is chosen, and especially if Ryan, Hillary will be in a whole new game.
It would be impossible for any other Republican candidate to win the electoral vote on the first ballot because the deadline to certify ballots for the general election has already passed in some state, especially red states, and the deadline for most states is 60 days before the election, Sept 8. Trump will remain on those ballots whether he drops out or not. A new Republican nominee would not be on those ballots.
Now if no one got 270 electoral votes, then it would go to the current House, which is controlled by republicans. They can select anyone they want. But the Republican party is fractured, and the Tea Party and the establishment Republicans will not support each other's candidate.
If Trump does stay in and the polls look like Hillary is going to win in a landslide, what I fear is there will be a record low voter turnout. Usually when there's a low turnout Democrats do very poorly, which means Republicans would hold onto the Senate and the House. And thus we citizens then would be the losers due to at least 2 more years of Republican obstructionism.
I don't think so. The Democratic already has an incredible Get Out The Vote organization already set up. And they got plenty of money for it, as they're not going to need to spend much on advertising against Trump. Democrats are going to show up in record numbers. The fear on the Republican side is that their base gives up and stays home, and the Democrats take both the house and senate.
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Maybe it'll be Bill's third term, de facto ?
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Some truly delusional people on this site, living on liberal websites playing patty cake on each other's balls.
Extreme Vetting is coming.
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Extreme Vetting is coming.
LOL! Because a terr'ist hell bent on blowing themselves up won't be capable of lying on a form?
Oh brother... 'extreme vetting' = complete clickbait reinforcement for desperate trump supporters.
Trump actually said "I know more about ISIS than the generals". And his big plan for stopping them turns out to be another govt form that bad guys will just lie on when filling out? Unreal anyone still falls for trump's garbage.
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Why the fuck do you come on here and consistently lie all the time?
Why does a snake bit people? Why does a turd stink? Why do Muslims have sex with preteen boys?
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LOL! Because a terr'ist hell bent on blowing themselves up won't be capable of lying on a form?
Oh brother... 'extreme vetting' = complete clickbait reinforcement for desperate trump supporters.
Trump actually said "I know more about ISIS than the generals". And his big plan for stopping them turns out to be another govt form that bad guys will just lie on when filling out? Unreal anyone still falls for trump's garbage.
Exactly this.
Also please show me how many terrorist attacks have happened in the US by people who hadn't been here for years?
Where did that Orlando shooter immigrate from again?
::)
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the nominee will keep doing what he's doing regardless, so there's nothing to be concerned about
keep thinking all the polls are biased and the media has no reason to be critical
hahaha I guess we'll see how it works out!
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keep doing it!
don't change anything!!!
It's gonna work!!
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LOL! Because a terr'ist hell bent on blowing themselves up won't be capable of lying on a form?
Oh brother... 'extreme vetting' = complete clickbait reinforcement for desperate trump supporters.
Trump actually said "I know more about ISIS than the generals". And his big plan for stopping them turns out to be another govt form that bad guys will just lie on when filling out? Unreal anyone still falls for trump's garbage.
haha, does Trump really think he knows more about ISIS (and terrorism) than American Generals? Oh, man, this guy is clearly delusional.
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Exactly this.
Also please show me how many terrorist attacks have happened in the US by people who hadn't been here for years?
Where did that Orlando shooter immigrate from again?
::)
He was an illegal immigrant from New Hyde Park, Syria, IIRC.
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Trump may lose Texas. 38 electoral votes that he had in the bag = 78 point swing.
hilary has 7 offices there and is working hard. Trump has a PO box in a UPS store in Austin.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/08/16/trump-catastrophe-worse-gop-poll-hints-texas-play-clinton.html
Trump Catastrophe Gets Worse For GOP As Poll Hints Texas May Be In Play For Clinton
By Jason Easley on Tue, Aug 16th, 2016 at 11:55 am
Donald Trump’s candidacy is quickly turning into a catastrophic GOP event, as a new poll of Texas shows Donald Trump with a relatively small 6 point lead over Hillary Clinton.
Keep in mind that it was only four years ago that Mitt Romney won Texas by 16 points while getting trounced nationally by President Obama.
The latest PPP poll of Texas found a closer than expected contest between Clinton and Trump:
PPP’s new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, and less than half a percent (0) for Evan McMullin. In a head to head contest Trump leads Clinton 50-44 in the state, which Mitt Romney won by 16 points in 2012.................... .....
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A Playboy for President
"He’s become the Daddy Alpha for every alpha-aspiring beta male, whose mix of moral liberation and misogyny keeps the Ring-a-Ding-Ding dream alive."
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/a-playboy-for-president.html
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It would be impossible for any other Republican candidate to win the electoral vote on the first ballot because the deadline to certify ballots for the general election has already passed in some state, especially red states, and the deadline for most states is 60 days before the election, Sept 8. Trump will remain on those ballots whether he drops out or not. A new Republican nominee would not be on those ballots.
Now if no one got 270 electoral votes, then it would go to the current House, which is controlled by republicans. They can select anyone they want. But the Republican party is fractured, and the Tea Party and the establishment Republicans will not support each other's candidate.
I don't think so. The Democratic already has an incredible Get Out The Vote organization already set up. And they got plenty of money for it, as they're not going to need to spend much on advertising against Trump. Democrats are going to show up in record numbers. The fear on the Republican side is that their base gives up and stays home, and the Democrats take both the house and senate.
FYI, regarding his quitting, see this article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/08/05/if-trump-quits-gop-will-have-very-tough-time-replacing-him/?utm_term=.ff8a9df608b6
I hope you are right about the voter turnout.