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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: James on September 06, 2016, 07:04:59 AM
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A new CNN poll shows Republican Donald Trump has closed an 11-point gap with Democrat Hillary Clinton and leads her nationally in the race for the White House by two points.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.
Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3466418/posts
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Even Hannity himself said in the early 3pm hour today that this poll likely oversampled republicans. he even called this poll an outlier.
Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-poll-cnn-msnbc-227804#ixzz4JWr4gqwv
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So how many points do you think he gained then 240? Zero? 5?
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So how many points do you think he gained then 240? Zero? 5?
Mississippi... Romney won 55%. Trump is leading by 2. Miss is a swing state. 2016 is madness.
I believe Trump is peaking, tony. there's a 3.5 to 4 point up and down that trump does.
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Mississippi... Romney won 55%. Trump is leading by 2. Miss is a swing state. 2016 is madness.
I believe Trump is peaking, tony. there's a 3.5 to 4 point up and down that trump does.
Didn't answer the question...if you believe the poll to be flawed, how many points do you think he gained?
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Didn't answer the question...if you believe the poll to be flawed, how many points do you think he gained?
240 doesn't believe in CNN polls, they're an A- rated poll, please provide a link to a trusted Washington Post poll, they have an A+ rating.
oh wait. The poll from today showing Trump leading her by 2 is awesome. But the poll showing them tied in TX is bullshit.
Wash post is an A+ rated poll in terms of accuracy.
CNN is actually an A- rated poll.
Explain why the A+ poll is bullshit, but the A- poll is credible.
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Didn't answer the question...if you believe the poll to be flawed, how many points do you think he gained?
Please let me be clearer - I believe Trump is climbing back up toward his previous high polling level (national average) of 44%. He hit this level FIVE times in the last 14 months, and he's at 41.7% today... If he keeps kicking ass, he will get up to 44% again nationally, and eventually another few points, stealing support as it falls away from Gary and Jill.
Macro doesn't lie. It was hella accurate in 2012, and it'll be accurate this time too. hilary has a steady 4-5 point lead over Trump. It's been pretty consistent. For every poll showing him grabbing ground in OH, there is a poll showing she's within the margin of error in MISS or actually tied at 40% in TX.
He has little GOTV effort. She can bribg, cheat, motivate in all of those close states. He has to guard ALL OF THEM and he has to win ALMOST ALL of the swing states, to get it. She's in the 280 vote zone already. He has to be PERFECT to beat her - and even then, she can just claim putin stole it for Trump ;)
I think Trump bounces along in a nice 3-5 point up and down, since last year. 44% national average is the peak. 47% seems to be her ceiling. He's never hit 45. She's passed 50.
Numbers MACRO don't lie.