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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Palumboism on December 01, 2019, 07:07:04 AM

Title: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Palumboism on December 01, 2019, 07:07:04 AM
Stagflation: A simultaneous increase in prices and stagnation of economic growth.

$23 trillion in Federal debt and counting.  Not to worry, the Fed will "print" more.  

Please continue inflating this asset bubble.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/08/05/us/05onfire1_xp/05onfire1_xp-articleLarge-v2.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Kwon on December 01, 2019, 07:30:56 AM
After the "boom-boom", some adapted to the new truth, and some chose to huddle near the boomy holes, clinging to the lie of the beforefore times.


/Falcon
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: pellius on December 02, 2019, 10:54:01 PM
Stagflation: A simultaneous increase in prices and stagnation of economic growth.

$23 trillion in Federal debt and counting.  Not to worry, the Fed will "print" more.  

Please continue inflating this asset bubble.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/08/05/us/05onfire1_xp/05onfire1_xp-articleLarge-v2.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)

Move to Europe. Their economy is booming.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Moontrane on December 02, 2019, 11:20:52 PM
Gotta consider the debt and deficit as a percentage of GDP.  Debt/GDP has been essentially flat for years, because the economy has grown.

I am not arguing in favor of deficit spending - I think it's perilous in the long term - just putting things in perspective.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on December 02, 2019, 11:22:15 PM
in a potential recession, the US has room to lower interest rates.

Where is the room to lower rates in Europe, when the rates are zero or negative?
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Marty Champions on December 03, 2019, 04:23:39 PM
in a potential recession, the US has room to lower interest rates.

Where is the room to lower rates in Europe, when the rates are zero or negative?
Are interests rates one of the top two or thee cheif economic indicators?
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Irongrip400 on December 03, 2019, 05:12:28 PM
Can’t it just keep going forever? Can’t we just continue to kick the fan down the road? Isn’t the promise of money in the long term, what drives this whole thing anyway?
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Hypertrophy on December 03, 2019, 05:23:32 PM
Yes, I come to Getbig to get my financial and economic guidance all the time, lol

Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Palumboism on December 03, 2019, 06:52:12 PM
Record corporate debt of $10 trillion.

Record mortgage debt of $9.4 trillion.

Record federal debt of $23 trillion.

Record auto loan debt of $1.2 trillion.

Record student loan debt of $1.4 trillion.

Record credit card debt of $1.07 trillion.

I'm sure everything will be fine.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IronMagazine.com on December 03, 2019, 07:05:07 PM
Stagflation: A simultaneous increase in prices and stagnation of economic growth.

$23 trillion in Federal debt and counting.  Not to worry, the Fed will "print" more. 

Please continue inflating this asset bubble.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/08/05/us/05onfire1_xp/05onfire1_xp-articleLarge-v2.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)

that's okay I am moving to Mexico soon and retiring.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IRON CROSS on December 03, 2019, 07:51:59 PM


Stagflation: A simultaneous increase in prices and stagnation of economic growth.




But didn't you prize & fire crack American Luftwaffe, airports,travel economy, etc, .......only weeks ago    ::)

You are just another old fart like PrimeNancy & Safety Fat !.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: keanu on December 03, 2019, 09:40:34 PM
Stagflation: A simultaneous increase in prices and stagnation of economic growth.

$23 trillion in Federal debt and counting.  Not to worry, the Fed will "print" more.  

Please continue inflating this asset bubble.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/08/05/us/05onfire1_xp/05onfire1_xp-articleLarge-v2.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale)
You are right, things will end badly. There will be an economic reset as every country I can think of is running debts they can never repay.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: pellius on December 03, 2019, 10:46:17 PM
that's okay I am moving to Mexico soon and retiring.

It's a Narco-State and one of the most corrupt and dangerous countries run by drug lords?

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/10/527794495/mexico-is-called-worlds-second-most-violent-country

https://www.foxnews.com/world/tijuana-is-the-most-violent-city-in-the-world-top-5-located-in-mexico-report-says

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mexico-third-most-dangerous-country/
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Mayday on December 04, 2019, 11:59:21 AM
Can’t it just keep going forever? Can’t we just continue to kick the fan down the road? Isn’t the promise of money in the long term, what drives this whole thing anyway?

Forever? No.

For decades? Yes.

All Govts around the globe are loading up on debt. They discovered it gives them 2-3 decades until the govt debt becomes a problem.

Pretty much everyone is printing new money at 5% a year yet exchanges rates are fairly stable as its an agreement or group think activity.

The end solution will probably be govt debt forgiveness along with agreed global currency printing increase higher than 5%. China buys 1T of US debt, US buys 1T of Chinese debt, both forgive.


The issue of stagflation is caused by not enough new currency being printed. Growth requires printed money. We want a 100k house to be worth 200k 10yrs later. For that to happen, double your printed currency pool.

 Inflation is fucking great! Wages go up, food goes up, assets go up, DEBT IS WORTH LESS!!!!  That's how you pay a 25yr mortgage off in 10yrs.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IronMagazine.com on December 04, 2019, 12:02:33 PM
It's a Narco-State and one of the most corrupt and dangerous countries run by drug lords?

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/10/527794495/mexico-is-called-worlds-second-most-violent-country

https://www.foxnews.com/world/tijuana-is-the-most-violent-city-in-the-world-top-5-located-in-mexico-report-says

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mexico-third-most-dangerous-country/

That's why I will be moving to a resort area like Cabo silly.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Wiggs on December 04, 2019, 01:59:09 PM
Record corporate debt of $10 trillion.

Record mortgage debt of $9.4 trillion.

Record federal debt of $23 trillion.

Record auto loan debt of $1.2 trillion.

Record student loan debt of $1.4 trillion.

Record credit card debt of $1.07 trillion.

I'm sure everything will be fine.

Let's not forget the unfunded liabilities. $122 trillion.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IRON CROSS on December 04, 2019, 03:02:20 PM
Let's not forget the unfunded liabilities. $122 trillion.

But regarding to U, Mr.Jesus will save us  :D
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: SOMEPARTS on December 04, 2019, 05:36:34 PM
The parasites will not kill the host but they will bleed them. The money printing and devaluation is the only answer other than a reset with cryptocurrency AKA totally controlled and tracked money. You can be sure they can keep the game going longer than most can hold out.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: pellius on December 04, 2019, 05:42:48 PM
That's why I will be moving to a resort area like Cabo silly.

OK, suit yourself. People take for granted the laws and freedoms we have here. When a buddy of mine got arrested in Mexico by cops trying to shake him down money he said, "I have my rights!" They just started laughing and beat the crap out of him. But Cabo is nice if you have money and if you keep a low profile it's fairly safe. Just don't come crying to me if you get your head cut off.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Wiggs on December 04, 2019, 06:29:08 PM
But regarding to U, Mr.Jesus will save us  :D


He ain't saving you dipshit. Your dumbass is part of the trash he's taking out.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Theoak* on December 04, 2019, 06:58:46 PM
The parasites will not kill the host but they will bleed them. The money printing and devaluation is the only answer other than a reset with cryptocurrency AKA totally controlled and tracked money. You can be sure they can keep the game going longer than most can hold out.

There are people who know what is going to happen and they are already positioning for it.  For example, shorting of airline companies stocks before September 11, 2001 was presaging the 9/11 attack.
Likely a stablecoin such as Facebook Libra transitioning the backing from a basket of national currencies predominantly dollars, towards a backing reserve mostly of Bitcoins.

This will happen because USA has abused its advantage with the dollar being the standard unit-of-account and because the strong dollar short vortex will wreck havoc on the world, driving massive stagflation and rising interest rates especially outside the USA. Bitcoin will be seen as a more fair alternative to any single national currency.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IronMagazine.com on December 04, 2019, 07:34:26 PM
OK, suit yourself. People take for granted the laws and freedoms we have here. When a buddy of mine got arrested in Mexico by cops trying to shake him down money he said, "I have my rights!" They just started laughing and beat the crap out of him. But Cabo is nice if you have money and if you keep a low profile it's fairly safe. Just don't come crying to me if you get your head cut off.

Then I sure wonder why sooooooooo many Americans retire in Mexico?

I could move to a city Chicago and take the same risk.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Palumboism on December 04, 2019, 08:02:02 PM
Forever? No.

For decades? Yes.

All Govts around the globe are loading up on debt. They discovered it gives them 2-3 decades until the govt debt becomes a problem.

Pretty much everyone is printing new money at 5% a year yet exchanges rates are fairly stable as its an agreement or group think activity.

The end solution will probably be govt debt forgiveness along with agreed global currency printing increase higher than 5%. China buys 1T of US debt, US buys 1T of Chinese debt, both forgive.


The issue of stagflation is caused by not enough new currency being printed. Growth requires printed money. We want a 100k house to be worth 200k 10yrs later. For that to happen, double your printed currency pool.

 Inflation is fucking great! Wages go up, food goes up, assets go up, DEBT IS WORTH LESS!!!!  That's how you pay a 25yr mortgage off in 10yrs.

Volker took the Federal Funds rate up to 19% back in 1981.  today the Federal Funds rate is 1.5%.  What would happen to the economy if interest rates were raised 17.5 %?

Who would be the Paul Volker of today?  Who has the courage to do what needs to be done regardless of how unpopular?  If we have real inflation that's what will need to be done.  There's nothing fun about 19% plus interest rates.  Real inflation is painful.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: SOMEPARTS on December 04, 2019, 09:51:55 PM
Real inflation is painful.



Unless you have your debt paid, own real assets and have money in the bank. Then it's fine. Rates under a healthy economy should be like 5%. We aren't even close because the fundamentals of the old economy have been abandoned for mountains of dollars printed, debt based on continual growth models, etc. The crash of 2008 was a decoupling of economics based on real physical things/natural resources and has transitioned into a digital shell game. There is 100 years of future growth already built into the markets.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Primemuscle on December 05, 2019, 12:00:03 AM
in a potential recession, the US has room to lower interest rates.

Where is the room to lower rates in Europe, when the rates are zero or negative?

Are you saying the banks in Europe are paying people to borrow money? Heck, I going to move to Europe if that's the case. Nevermind.

What Are Negative Interest Rates?
Negative interest rates refer to a scenario in which cash deposits incur a charge for storage at a bank, rather than receiving interest income. Instead of receiving money on deposits in the form of interest, depositors must pay regularly to keep their money with the bank. This environment is intended to incentivize banks to lend money more freely.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Hulkotron on December 05, 2019, 02:53:02 AM
The original Hebrews were black.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Wiggs on December 05, 2019, 03:45:15 AM
The original Hebrews were black.

FACT!
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IRON CROSS on December 05, 2019, 11:42:00 AM

He ain't saving you dipshit. Your dumbass is part of the trash he's taking out.


Ooh, YOU communicate with him (JC)  :o , tell more .......

Obw, how he (JC) will take me 'out'  ::)
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IRON CROSS on December 05, 2019, 11:43:26 AM
FACT!

Chimpanzee is black monkey , fact  :D
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IRON CROSS on December 05, 2019, 11:45:28 AM
The original Hebrews were black.

Post pics/cave paintings  ???.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Wiggs on December 11, 2019, 07:00:10 PM
There are people who know what is going to happen and they are already positioning for it.  For example, shorting of airline companies stocks before September 11, 2001 was presaging the 9/11 attack.
Likely a stablecoin such as Facebook Libra transitioning the backing from a basket of national currencies predominantly dollars, towards a backing reserve mostly of Bitcoins.

This will happen because USA has abused its advantage with the dollar being the standard unit-of-account and because the strong dollar short vortex will wreck havoc on the world, driving massive stagflation and rising interest rates especially outside the USA. Bitcoin will be seen as a more fair alternative to any single national currency.


It wont be Bitcoin. It will be XRP because it provides instant liquidation.  Bitcoin is too slow and XRP is everything bitcoin wants to be. Bitcoin is MySpace and XRP is Facebook and Libra wants to be what XRP is. It's all about Ripple and XRP. The writing is on the wall. It will be the world's digital reserve currency or at least the West's digital reserve currency. China will back their bitcoin with gold they've been hording.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Palumboism on December 11, 2019, 07:30:55 PM
Volker took the Federal Funds rate up to 19% back in 1981.  today the Federal Funds rate is 1.5%.  What would happen to the economy if interest rates were raised 17.5 %?

Who would be the Paul Volker of today?  Who has the courage to do what needs to be done regardless of how unpopular?  If we have real inflation that's what will need to be done.  There's nothing fun about 19% plus interest rates.  Real inflation is painful.


PIP Paul Volker

Volcker took charge of the Fed in August 1979, when the U.S. economy was in the grip of runaway inflation. Consumer prices skyrocketed 13% in 1979 and then by the same pace again in 1980.

Working relentlessly to bring prices under control, Volcker raised the Fed’s benchmark interest rate from 11% to a record 20% by late 1980 to try to slow the economy’s growth and thereby shrink inflation.

Those high interest rates made it so expensive for people and companies to borrow that the economy weakened steadily. By January 1980, a recession had begun. It lasted six months. A deeper and more painful downturn took hold in July 1981. It endured for 18 months and sent unemployment up to 10.8% in November and December 1982, the highest level since the Great Depression.

https://apnews.com/d91989c6d267295f565fa4be7a825555 (https://apnews.com/d91989c6d267295f565fa4be7a825555)


They don't make them like Volker any more.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Theoak* on December 11, 2019, 09:29:30 PM
It wont be Bitcoin. It will be XRP because it provides instant liquidation.  Bitcoin is too slow and XRP is everything bitcoin wants to be. Bitcoin is MySpace and XRP is Facebook and Libra wants to be what XRP is. It's all about Ripple and XRP. The writing is on the wall. It will be the world's digital reserve currency or at least the West's digital reserve currency. China will back their bitcoin with gold they've been hording.

I said a stable coin, such as Facebook Libra.

It will be a non-permissonless, 666 as you call it, stablecoin (e.g. Facebook’s Libra) eventually (2026 – 2032) backed by  Bitcoin.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IroNat on December 12, 2019, 05:35:45 AM
I bought my first house in 1984 with a mortgage of 17.5%.

That was after paying 5 points (a point is 1% of the mortgage) to reduce the rate.

Volcker saved the country with tough love.  Guy was a hero.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Bindare_Dundat on December 12, 2019, 05:42:03 AM
in a potential recession, the US has room to lower interest rates.

Where is the room to lower rates in Europe, when the rates are zero or negative?

How much room is there before it goes into negative territory?
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: loco on December 12, 2019, 05:49:45 AM
U.S. Wage Growth Eclipses Mortgage Rate for First Time Since 1972

Average pay rises 3.8% in October versus mortgage rate of 3.7%

Combination will limit the debt burden for American households

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/u-s-wage-growth-eclipses-mortgage-rate-for-first-time-since-72?fbclid=IwAR1pCFqcAObTKKG17ADIA7_IZW2ALhln6rxcdGdqzU6NTXmt9AASsYMxaLs

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6pZ8_FVsAAi6_U.jpg)
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: IRON CROSS on December 12, 2019, 12:20:48 PM

Are you saying the banks in Europe are paying people to borrow money? Heck, I going to move to Europe if that's the case. Nevermind.




No Europe, take that ugly old bag Nancy with you & relocate to Wiggz Liberia, rocket scientist Palumbo will join you too.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Palumboism on December 12, 2019, 04:40:13 PM
How much room is there before it goes into negative territory?

1.55 %

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS)

It's been at zero from 2008 to 2015.  Only twice in the last one hundred years has it been zero.  During the great depression and from 2008 to 2015.
Title: Re: We're Heading Towards Stagflation Big Time
Post by: Irongrip400 on December 12, 2019, 05:04:34 PM
PIP Paul Volker

Volcker took charge of the Fed in August 1979, when the U.S. economy was in the grip of runaway inflation. Consumer prices skyrocketed 13% in 1979 and then by the same pace again in 1980.

Working relentlessly to bring prices under control, Volcker raised the Fed’s benchmark interest rate from 11% to a record 20% by late 1980 to try to slow the economy’s growth and thereby shrink inflation.

Those high interest rates made it so expensive for people and companies to borrow that the economy weakened steadily. By January 1980, a recession had begun. It lasted six months. A deeper and more painful downturn took hold in July 1981. It endured for 18 months and sent unemployment up to 10.8% in November and December 1982, the highest level since the Great Depression.

https://apnews.com/d91989c6d267295f565fa4be7a825555 (https://apnews.com/d91989c6d267295f565fa4be7a825555)


They don't make them like Volker any more.

I need to go back to school for a semester and take a few Econ classes so I understood how all of this type of shit works.