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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: OneMoreRep on May 12, 2021, 01:11:58 PM
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-april-2021-11620781266 (https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-april-2021-11620781266)
This is a 13 year high. Hopefully, it doesn't get out of hand, but I'm not optimistic. I've been predicting inflation for a while. So it begins..
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give out free money without requirement for production... go figure....
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"Well inflation you see, you got a tire. A tire is a thing, that goes round. Inflation comes 'round, goes 'round with each administration"
"You see, (checks flash cards) you see, when you put some money into something, well, uhmm, where was I.. Oh ya, the tire was uhmm leaking air"
"We wont stand for leaks, mmkay. We need to be one with China, some of their horrific slave labor is just a thing, a culture, uhmm, culture club".
"Cmon mannn"??? (pauses to listen to the circus music going off in his head) Gimme a break"
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food for thought...
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give out free money without requirement for production... go figure....
Good old Joe doesn't get it. The printing press keeps spitting out dollars ($6 Trillion to be exact) in order to fund the:
American Rescue Plan
American Jobs Plan
American Families Plan
The above listed have one unified, synonymous term that can encompass all, "WELFARE". The narrative that he plans to foot the bill by increasing both corporate and personal taxes is bullshit. Our economy is in a slump. You can't tax that which hasn't been earned.
"1"
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Orange Man was mean . . . . . . ::)
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Just get a savings account with 0.5% interest :D
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Trump's fault.
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I believe current inflation rate has less to do with printing money and more to do with shortages and low supply of goods due to shutting everything down for a year. A 3% to 4% yearly inflation rate is okay by me. Wages and stock prices will go up too.
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I believe current inflation rate has less to do with printing money and more to do with shortages and low supply of goods due to shutting everything down for a year. A 3% to 4% yearly inflation rate is okay by me. Wages and stock prices will go up too.
I believe it's a product of both. In other words, you're also right.
We are inflating the circulating amount of US dollars and giving a good chunk of that to people that spend as if there is no tomorrow. This results in an increase to the velocity of money, which will cause prices to rise.
To your point surrounding shortages and the low supply of goods, I think that further compounds the problem. The portion of our labor force that's been put on ice, let go or yet to be reinstated is causing a shortage in the supply of both goods and services. As a result of this, both goods and service are more scarce, which in turn makes their limited supply more expensive. Just in April alone, the jobs report showed that only 266,000 jobs were created which was less by about 750,000+ than the low end amount that they were hoping for.
So, I think both points are right because:
Less goods and services + a lot more available currency pumped into our circulating supply = inflation with a translation that amounts to the base PRICE of hard assets (stocks, real estate etc) and basic consumer products to increase.
The silver lining to increasing inflation is that our labor is also an asset, an asset we trade for CASH. Inflation will cause the price of all assets to increase and the cost of our labor will increase to account for the increased cost of attaining all other assets we usually attain with a lower rate of pay. This phenomenon will greatly benefit those with accrued "good" debt (mortgages, private loans etc) and certainly be useful with those that have "bad" debt (credit cards etc).
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I believe current inflation rate has less to do with printing money and more to do with shortages and low supply of goods due to shutting everything down for a year. A 3% to 4% yearly inflation rate is okay by me. Wages and stock prices will go up too.
A 3% to 4% yearly inflation rate is insanity. Every 5 years everything goes up 20%?
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Consequences of too much "free stuff"
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A 3% to 4% yearly inflation rate is insanity. Every 5 years everything goes up 20%?
It was between 5% and 13.5% in the 70s and 80s. We have seen between 3% and more than 5% not long ago.
2008 Inflation rate by month:
4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.9 3.7 1.1 0.1 3.8 AVERAGE
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/
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Consequences of too much "free stuff"
How so?
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It was between 5% and 13.5% in the 70s and 80s. We have seen between 3% and more than 5% not long ago.
2008 Inflation rate by month:
4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.9 3.7 1.1 0.1 3.8 AVERAGE
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/ (https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/)
And the 70's and 80's sucked for the value of a dollar! 2008 was also insanity. It has only been recently that the rate has gotten reasonable:
(https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-core-inflation-rate.png?s=usacorecpirate&v=202105122315V20200908)
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How so?
Because the US Government prints money to pay for this bullshit.
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There is a dire consequence to the government demanding that businesses pay a “living wage” to people who do not have “living wage” skills.
People on a fixed income should be absolutely terrified by the Biden administration’s economic policies.
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There is a dire consequence to the government demanding that businesses pay a “living wage” to people who do not have “living wage” skills.
People on a fixed income should be absolutely terrified by the Biden administration’s economic policies.
Impoverishing savers and the responsible in order to give to the Michelle Obama’s of the world.
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I hope liberals suffer horribly for this. Every single one of them. I hope they are set upon by the demons they thought to loose upon real Americans.
Fuck you you fuckin' fucks.
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Trump's fault.
Yep...just wait for it
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Can't wait for shadowstats to post their update using the old metrics.
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FED is constantly borrowing time, they were saying they will raise interest rates when inflation raises to 2.5 percent, they tried and failed miserably about a year ago
They fcking can't not because of covid, without credits they can't keep the music go
They pretend that they can raise interest rates at will but they can't service massive accumulated debt when they raise rates.
If you want to lose sleep, think about what is happening to social security savings
These watered down CPI figures doesn't include many everyday expenses, imagine how much buying power have a security fund will retain in 10 years let alone 20 years.
I have 35 percent of my savings in hard gold.
Good luck fellas, dire times are coming
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They are apparently ok with 5% CPI.
They are risking triggering a massive deflationary spiral.
The system is leveraged 25x.
You give free money to people. Those people no longer work therefore productivity drops yet they can purchase available goods. Supply dries up, prices go up, costs go up, margins get squeezed and wages get frozen. Wages will not go up unless mandated by law or unions.
They just caused a property boom with people already max leverage. What do you think breaks when daily costs fly up? They default in their mortgage and people squat. What happened last time we experienced a mass default on mortgages? A global liquidity crisis which is a deflationary.
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Buying a home right now at these inflated prices is a big mistake.
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(https://i.imgur.com/fjl7NSD.jpg)
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There is a dire consequence to the government demanding that businesses pay a “living wage” to people who do not have “living wage” skills.
People on a fixed income should be absolutely terrified by the Biden administration’s economic policies.
Why would a welfare bum not like biden
Welfare bums have been favored for the past 20 years atleast
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Why would a welfare bum not like biden
Welfare bums have been favored for the past 20 years atleast
Exactly Joon.
When I was growing up I only ever heard of one family being on welfare and there was a horrible stigma attached to it. Everyone in the area pitched in to help the family and people donated things to them.
Now being on welfare is like a badge of honor and a sign of sticking it to “the man.”
It reminds me of England in the 80’s under Margaret Thatcher, when the younger generation absolutely refused to work. The Democrat Party doesn’t care, they are more than willing to ruin America just to remain in power. The are not a party of government “for the people.”
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And the 70's and 80's sucked for the value of a dollar! 2008 was also insanity. It has only been recently that the rate has gotten reasonable:
(https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/united-states-core-inflation-rate.png?s=usacorecpirate&v=202105122315V20200908)
No argument from me.
What is it that got the inflation rate "reasonable" only recently?
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Exactly Joon.
When I was growing up I only ever heard of one family being on welfare and there was a horrible stigma attached to it. Everyone in the area pitched in to help the family and people donated things to them.
Now being on welfare is like a badge of honor and a sign of sticking it to “the man.”
It reminds me of England in the 80’s under Margaret Thatcher, when the younger generation absolutely refused to work. The Democrat Party doesn’t care, they are more than willing to ruin America just to remain in power. The are not a party of government “for the people.”
Dem party is so far from being a labor party yet the unions still vote dems. Crazy.
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Dem party is so far from being a labor party yet the unions still vote dems. Crazy.
I had a guy who defected from communist Russia who used to work for me, he summed up communism this way:
“We pretended to work, they pretended to pay us.”
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They are apparently ok with 5% CPI.
They are risking triggering a massive deflationary spiral.
The system is leveraged 25x.
You give free money to people. Those people no longer work therefore productivity drops yet they can purchase available goods. Supply dries up, prices go up, costs go up, margins get squeezed and wages get frozen. Wages will not go up unless mandated by law or unions.
They just caused a property boom with people already max leverage. What do you think breaks when daily costs fly up? They default in their mortgage and people squat. What happened last time we experienced a mass default on mortgages? A global liquidity crisis which is a deflationary.
Mayday! Mayday!
You know I've been preaching this sermon for the better part of an entire year.
I don't want anything bad for the USA, but fuck, the writing has been on the wall about 1 year + 2 months since the start of COVID.
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There is a dire consequence to the government demanding that businesses pay a “living wage” to people who do not have “living wage” skills.
People on a fixed income should be absolutely terrified by the Biden administration’s economic policies.
What's a living wage skill? where exactly is the line?
Because every piece of shit girl in the trump administration went on tv and tanked grocery store workers last year for their essential labour. Certainly if something is essential it's deserving of a living wage
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I had a guy who defected from communist Russia who used to work for me, he summed up communism this way:
“We pretended to work, they pretended to pay us.”
Funny, I heard that exact same thing too from a Cuban. :D
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Exactly Joon.
When I was growing up I only ever heard of one family being on welfare and there was a horrible stigma attached to it. Everyone in the area pitched in to help the family and people donated things to them.
Now being on welfare is like a badge of honor and a sign of sticking it to “the man.”
It reminds me of England in the 80’s under Margaret Thatcher, when the younger generation absolutely refused to work. The Democrat Party doesn’t care, they are more than willing to ruin America just to remain in power. The are not a party of government “for the people.”
Today a friend of mine came by to visit me [I've been locked in my attic for the past 14 months now, and finally had enough].
My friend specifically mentioned your posts - apparently I've learned that a few of my friends who read my online posts are now reading them on Getbig because it's the only place I post on now since everything else censors too much.
My friend said "Didn't that guy on Getbig say that you hate Black people but told a Black guy who posts there [Goodrum] that if he had babies, they would look like Oprah when she was at her fattest or something?"
I just about laughed out loud.
So apparently you have a Thunder Bay audience that I wasn't aware of.
Regarding your post - yeah, exactly. A friend of mine said that some Joe Biden voters were having buyer's remorse due to his interventionist military policy.
Bullshit. All these people want is the politician who gives them the most free stuff. And these same people call others greedy for just wanting to keep the money they earn. Literally the only thing that Democrats want is free stuff and monetary handouts doled out to them, paid for my money stolen from working Americans [and Liberals in Canada want the same, from money stolen from working Canadians].
As soon as the anti-war left disappeared with Obama in 2008, I realized that these people couldn't give a hang about anything except getting more free stuff.
I can't believe I used to think liberals and leftists had some actual values and principles. From what I can tell, the only value they have is whatever value in other people's money that their government check is worth.
As you said - it's like a badge of honour being on welfare now. Either that, or at the least, no one cares. The stigma is mostly gone [probably that - that there is simply much less stigma associated with being on welfare compared to decades past].
Yet somehow this system is still staying afloat...at least for now. It would seem like there has to be a time when the bottom of this drops off...but no. Not yet at least.
I feel like something is coming, and yet it just hasn't happened yet, and I'm starting to think the entire economy is just a giant global Ponzi Scheme.
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What's a living wage skill? where exactly is the line?
Because every piece of shit girl in the trump administration went on tv and tanked grocery store workers last year for their essential labour. Certainly if something is essential it's deserving of a living wage
Liberals are overly emotional and know/care nothing about how a free market economy actually works.
I mean the whole thing is busted wide open now so who' counting... but in general...NO bagging groceries is NOT a job that you should get 40k and insurance for because it doesn't add enough value.
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What's a living wage skill? where exactly is the line?
Because every piece of shit girl in the trump administration went on tv and tanked grocery store workers last year for their essential labour. Certainly if something is essential it's deserving of a living wage
Being an essential worker does not mean you have an essential skill set.
If a high school summer student can do your repetitive, menial job, that sets the salary limit.
Why do you think the liberal darling AOC worked as a bartender? Not because of her skill set, but because the “socialist” wanted to work for cash and not pay the government taxes.
So now she wants to spend tax money like a drunken sailor, but never wanted to pay tax during her “working career.”
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Today a friend of mine came by to visit me [I've been locked in my attic for the past 14 months now, and finally had enough].
My friend specifically mentioned your posts - apparently I've learned that a few of my friends who read my online posts are now reading them on Getbig because it's the only place I post on now since everything else censors too much.
My friend said "Didn't that guy on Getbig say that you hate Black people but told a Black guy who posts there [Goodrum] that if he had babies, they would look like Oprah when she was at her fattest or something?"
I just about laughed out loud.
So apparently you have a Thunder Bay audience that I wasn't aware of.
Regarding your post - yeah, exactly. A friend of mine said that some Joe Biden voters were having buyer's remorse due to his interventionist military policy.
Bullshit. All these people want is the politician who gives them the most free stuff. And these same people call others greedy for just wanting to keep the money they earn. Literally the only thing that Democrats want is free stuff and monetary handouts doled out to them, paid for my money stolen from working Americans [and Liberals in Canada want the same, from money stolen from working Canadians].
As soon as the anti-war left disappeared with Obama in 2008, I realized that these people couldn't give a hang about anything except getting more free stuff.
I can't believe I used to think liberals and leftists had some actual values and principles. From what I can tell, the only value they have is whatever value in other people's money that their government check is worth.
As you said - it's like a badge of honour being on welfare now. Either that, or at the least, no one cares. The stigma is mostly gone [probably that - that there is simply much less stigma associated with being on welfare compared to decades past].
Yet somehow this system is still staying afloat...at least for now. It would seem like there has to be a time when the bottom of this drops off...but no. Not yet at least.
I feel like something is coming, and yet it just hasn't happened yet, and I'm starting to think the entire economy is just a giant global Ponzi Scheme.
the entire economy is a joke because everything is purchased with fake money. You can get so n so to do your bidding with fake money. You can buy food and shelter with fake money. No matter how amazing a thing is you can buy it with fake money. The insiders get the most fake money they can create companies at will to war with other companies they created just for the hell of it
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Why do you think the liberal darling AOC worked as a bartender? Not because of her skill set, but because the “socialist” wanted to work for cash and not pay the government taxes.
So now she wants to spend tax money like a drunken sailor, but never wanted to pay tax during her “working career.”
Socialist running away from paying taxes, to now abusing our tax dollars by playing the political celebrity posing with fake tears in front of cages for South Americans.
"1"
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Today a friend of mine came by to visit me [I've been locked in my attic for the past 14 months now, and finally had enough].
My friend specifically mentioned your posts - apparently I've learned that a few of my friends who read my online posts are now reading them on Getbig because it's the only place I post on now since everything else censors too much.
My friend said "Didn't that guy on Getbig say that you hate Black people but told a Black guy who posts there [Goodrum] that if he had babies, they would look like Oprah when she was at her fattest or something?"
I just about laughed out loud.
So apparently you have a Thunder Bay audience that I wasn't aware of.
Regarding your post - yeah, exactly. A friend of mine said that some Joe Biden voters were having buyer's remorse due to his interventionist military policy.
Bullshit. All these people want is the politician who gives them the most free stuff. And these same people call others greedy for just wanting to keep the money they earn. Literally the only thing that Democrats want is free stuff and monetary handouts doled out to them, paid for my money stolen from working Americans [and Liberals in Canada want the same, from money stolen from working Canadians].
As soon as the anti-war left disappeared with Obama in 2008, I realized that these people couldn't give a hang about anything except getting more free stuff.
I can't believe I used to think liberals and leftists had some actual values and principles. From what I can tell, the only value they have is whatever value in other people's money that their government check is worth.
As you said - it's like a badge of honour being on welfare now. Either that, or at the least, no one cares. The stigma is mostly gone [probably that - that there is simply much less stigma associated with being on welfare compared to decades past].
Yet somehow this system is still staying afloat...at least for now. It would seem like there has to be a time when the bottom of this drops off...but no. Not yet at least.
I feel like something is coming, and yet it just hasn't happened yet, and I'm starting to think the entire economy is just a giant global Ponzi Scheme.
Matt I stopped reading after the first few sentences.
So I have three questions if you can answer in cliff notes:
Did you suck your friend’s dick?
Did you blame “the Jews”?
Did you make a reference to Hitler or brag about one of your obscure accomplishments?
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Socialist running away from paying taxes, to now abusing our tax dollars by playing the political celebrity posing with fake tears in front of cages for South Americans.
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I’d still plow her in the shitpipe....
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What's a living wage skill? where exactly is the line?
Because every piece of shit girl in the trump administration went on tv and tanked grocery store workers last year for their essential labour. Certainly if something is essential it's deserving of a living wage
I see we have a Biden supporter in the house.
It would be cool if liberals understood first year economics concepts. If they did, I could actually tolerate talking to them.
But ok, I'll bite:
Why not raise minimum wage to $25 an hour, instead of $15 an hour?
Ok, why not $100 an hour then? How about a MILLION DOLLARS AN HOUR. Wait, no - a TRILLION DOLLARS AN HOUR!
Then we could all live in mansions, and employ a million people, and - OH WAIT, SHIT, IF EVERYONE HAD A TRILLION DOLLARS FROM ONE HOUR'S WORTH OF WORK, NO ONE WOULD EVER NEED TO WORK AGAIN.
And it's exactly taking the minimum wage argument to absurdity that shows why it doesn't work at ANY pay level.
Minimum wage won't work if it's raised to $100 an hour. Even dumb shit leftist Biden supporters *should* have enough IQ to grasp that [but apparently, even that isn't always the case]. So if you can understand why minimum wage can't work at $100 - or $1,000, or $10,000 - an hour [any huge number], then it's not that difficult to understand why minimum wage has the same impact [inflationary impact on prices, reduction in jobs growth, if not an outright increase in unemployment] at *any wage increase*.
I swear, there is a leftist in my city who myself and a friend of mine who is a banker [who has an undergraduate degree in economics] have explained this to literally a dozen times each or more over the past ~15 years, and he STILL doesn't get it.
We've literally simplified the argument to a form close to "2+2=4", and he still doesn't get it.
But I guess that's how liberals think. That all you have to do is make minimum wage $15 an hour and BOOM, NO MORE POVERTY EVER AGAIN.
Or just confiscate all guns - it's not like governments with all the guns could exploit or oppress people who unilaterally disarm themselves or anything like that. ::)
And "just make healthcare free!!!"
Tell that to the 450,000 Canadians who have had their elective surgeries cancelled because "COVID is overwhelming our hospitals."
LMAO - our hospital in Thunder Bay is empty, but to keep the facade of COVID being scary, our scumbag premier has cancelled elective surgeries in Ontario "until COVID ends" [Premier Doug Ford, who is a Conservative, but does literally NOTHING differently than the federal Liberal Party].
"Just wear a mask" became "Just postpone your mastectomy" pretty fast. No one could have predicted that. ::)
The point I'm making is that leftists think everything is solved by giving free stuff to people. Meanwhile, I had a doctor's appointment scheduled 38 days ago, that got cancelled because my doctor was sick after taking his second dose of his Phizer "vaccine".
He finally contacted me today, and said he has room for me tomorrow.
That's Canadian "free healthcare" for you.
My point is, leftists oversimplify everything, when if they actually bothered to study the ideas they propose, they would realize that they fall apart under the slightest scrutiny.
Minimum wage has been completely refuted for at least 60 years now. Every single meta-analysis has rejected it as a workable policy, and yet people STILL talk about nonsense like a "living wage".
This is why leftists constantly push for censorship. Because assuming any level of freedom of speech at all, all the nonsense that leftists believe falls apart like a house of cards when examined in even the tiniest way possible.
I respect anyone who works for a living [especially in this woke era where you get fired for having a kindergartener's knowledge on biological sex], but living wage - like minimum wage - just doesn't work.
All leftists do is cherry pick examples of countries that have a higher concentration of White people and use it as "proof" that socialism is better.
"Look at how amazing Canada is - they don't have as much gun violence as the USA because they have stricter gun laws!!"
Oh gee, I wonder if the USA may have more gun violence than Canada because the USA has a 13% Black population that commits 56% of all gun crime? ::)
Nope, it can't be THAT.
But that's what moron liberals do - they take an apples and onions comparison between nations, then claim socialism is why one country is better.
All the while, these same fools want to import the third world, which will cause MORE suppression of wages, and MORE violence - exactly what these liberal jackasses claim to be against.
And of course - all these liberal supporters of "living wages" buy electronic devices and other goods made from near slave labour in China. ::)
Because heaven forbid a liberal or leftist DARE to practice what they preach. Nope - they can't have that!
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Being an essential worker does not mean you have an essential skill set.
If a high school summer student can do your repetitive, menial job, that sets the salary limit.
Why do you think the liberal darling AOC worked as a bartender? Not because of her skill set, but because the “socialist” wanted to work for cash and not pay the government taxes.
So now she wants to spend tax money like a drunken sailor, but never wanted to pay tax during her “working career.”
maybe she's a people person and just enjoys being around happy folks
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Liberals are overly emotional and know/care nothing about how a free market economy actually works.
I mean the whole thing is busted wide open now so who' counting... but in general...NO bagging groceries is NOT a job that you should get 40k and insurance for because it doesn't add enough value.
that's fine, but then don't be shocked when no one wants to work and your business goes belly up
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To sum up Matts awesome post:
Libturdz are brain-dead morons.
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maybe she's a people person and just enjoys being around happy folks
And what is a competitive salary for “being a people person?”
The lead socialist in the Socialist Democrat Party went out of her way to avoid paying her tax obligation to the government.
Democrats = liars and hypocrites.
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And what is a competitive salary for “being a people person?”
The lead socialist in the Socialist Democrat Party went out of her way to avoid paying her tax obligation to the government.
Democrats = liars and hypocrites.
she didn't design the asinine cash tipping system that pretty much only exists in america. Maybe the bar should have paid her on the books hourly and deducted her fair share
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that's fine, but then don't be shocked when no one wants to work and your business goes belly up
That is the socialist agenda.
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she didn't design the asinine cash tipping system that pretty much only exists in america. Maybe the bar should have paid her on the books hourly and deducted her fair share
You sound like a bitter communist waiter.
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she didn't design the asinine cash tipping system that pretty much only exists in america. Maybe the bar should have paid her on the books hourly and deducted her fair share
No one demanded that she take that job.
So how can she demand that the government set the salary requirements for something that you just admitted is her hobby and not her life’s work?
There are tens of thousands of liberal arts graduates working....for Uber.
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Mayday! Mayday!
You know I've been preaching this sermon for the better part of an entire year.
I don't want anything bad for the USA, but fuck, the writing has been on the wall about 1 year + 2 months since the start of COVID.
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I know dude but the problem is everyone is way too early on that call.
We are still not ‘there’ yet.
We were tapping 15%s like pros in the 70s and we didn’t collapse. We were tapping 8s in the 80s and we still soldiered on.
We hit 4% for 3 months for the first time in 30yrs and people are going apeshit like it’s the end of the world lol.
Fuel is still cheap. Food is still cheap. Energy. Internet. All cheap.
Americans took to the streets for BLM. When you see 10x the number of protestors every single day protesting about lack of jobs, poor wages, food shortages, THEN you know we are ‘there’.
Maybe by 2025 we will be feeling a bit of pain and perhaps nearing 2028 we will be in the shit. Weimar took a decade to play out and it only hyperinflated in the final year.
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I know dude but the problem is everyone is way too early on that call.
We are still not ‘there’ yet.
We were tapping 15%s like pros in the 70s and we didn’t collapse. We were tapping 8s in the 80s and we still soldiered on.
We hit 4% for 3 months for the first time in 30yrs and people are going apeshit like it’s the end of the world lol.
Fuel is still cheap. Food is still cheap. Energy. Internet. All cheap.
Americans took to the streets for BLM. When you see 10x the number of protestors every single day protesting about lack of jobs, poor wages, food shortages, THEN you know we are ‘there’.
Maybe by 2025 we will be feeling a bit of pain and perhaps nearing 2028 we will be in the shit. Weimar took a decade to play out and it only hyperinflated in the final year.
What about accumulated debt? Credit dependent growth, near zero interest rates for so long, much more competitive international trade?
You can't bath in the same river twice.
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I'd they are admitting 6.2% you can safely assume it's 10-15%.
Problem is you cant "fix" this with interest rates from the Fed Reserve. It's disconnected from that now....or close to it.
Also, even a .25 point hike would tank the markets.
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"The conventional wisdom among bestselling financial writers of the seventies and eighties was that unemployment and recession would get so bad that the fiscal and monetary floodgates would be thrown open to avert depression, bringing on inflation.
To fight it, the Fed would slam on the brakes and throw the country into an even greater slump requiring even more stimulus, causing even worse inflation, requiring even tougher brake slamming...and around and around it would go, inflation, recession, inflation, recession, getting ever worse.
The "malarial economy," Howard Ruff and others dubbed it, alternating chills and fever and, eventually, collapse. Ruff wrote How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years and (when they didn't come) Survive and Win in the Inflationary Eighties (which proved to be highly desinflamatory).
Douglas Casey cashed in with Crisis Investing. Ravi Batra hit #1 in 1987 with The Great Depression of 1990 (unemployment was 5.6% in 1990), the same year James Dale Davison and William Rees-Mogg weighed in with The Great Reckoning: Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression followed by Blood in the Streets: Investment Profits in a World Gone Mad."
- Andrew Tobias, The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need
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No one demanded that she take that job.
So how can she demand that the government set the salary requirements for something that you just admitted is her hobby and not her life’s work?
There are tens of thousands of liberal arts graduates working....for Uber.
You're right no one demanded she took the job, which is what folks aren't doing now and employers are crying about it
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You can't bathe with same water twice.
One of my favorite Heraclitus' quotes! Fantastic use of it sir.
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You're right no one demanded she took the job, which is what folks aren't doing now and employers are crying about it
So the people who AREN’T taking jobs are demanding a living wage.
Probably makes sense to a brain dead liberal.
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I'd they are admitting 6.2% you can safely assume it's 10-15%.
Problem is you cant "fix" this with interest rates from the Fed Reserve. It's disconnected from that now....or close to it.
Also, even a .25 point hike would tank the markets.
Don’t put it past the RAPIST BIDEN ADMINISTRATION to try to slow down inflation and prop up the economy by starting an armed conflict.
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One of my favorite Heraclitus' quotes! Fantastic use of it sir.
"1"
They say history repeats itself, and it sure does, but in longer stretches of time.
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What about accumulated debt? Credit dependent growth, near zero interest rates for so long, much more competitive international trade?
You can't bath in the same river twice.
Using only debt approx 3.8yrs to most likely max out debt/gdp but when you combine printing you can extend that out further.
It’ll be death by a thousand paper cuts and then BAM insolvency overnight and your head is chopped off. Bond rates won’t show it but the credit markets will as costs to insure debt will skyrocket.
You can break that down like this:
28T debt paying 1.5% interest on a 30Y bond is 420B (0.42T).
The US economy is 22T for arguments sake so the interest component would be 1.9% of GDP with total debt being 130% of GDP.
US tax revenues are around 3.7T making interest repayments 11% of govt revenues. That’s really the key part in answering your question as this is how they service debt from revenue. In other words today it’s a non-issue for servicing debt.
So what level would it really hurt at? Well Greece is proper fucked and they are at 180% meanwhile Japan has been at stagflation for decades sitting at 230%. I’d say let’s assume 230% debt to GDP as a ceiling.
M2 is 20T and we are adding 4T a year but it costs more than that so let’s say 6T per year to keep the GDP fixed at 22T. Debt maxed at 230% = 51T-28T/6=3.8yrs using only bonds to raise enough debt to keep afloat.
Hence why I say people get all these collapse calls wrong all the time. If I stand outside and say it’ll rain I’ll eventually be correct but that doesn’t mean I have any understanding or knowledge about the weather system. I just kept guessing.
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Using only debt approx 3.8yrs to most likely max out debt/gdp but when you combine printing you can extend that out further.
It’ll be death by a thousand paper cuts and then BAM insolvency overnight and your head is chopped off. Bond rates won’t show it but the credit markets will as costs to insure debt will skyrocket.
You can break that down like this:
28T debt paying 1.5% interest on a 30Y bond is 420B (0.42T).
The US economy is 22T for arguments sake so the interest component would be 1.9% of GDP with total debt being 130% of GDP.
US tax revenues are around 3.7T making interest repayments 11% of govt revenues. That’s really the key part in answering your question as this is how they service debt from revenue. In other words today it’s a non-issue for servicing debt.
So what level would it really hurt at? Well Greece is proper fucked and they are at 180% meanwhile Japan has been at stagflation for decades sitting at 230%. I’d say let’s assume 230% debt to GDP as a ceiling.
M2 is 20T and we are adding 4T a year but it costs more than that so let’s say 6T per year to keep the GDP fixed at 22T. Debt maxed at 230% = 51T-28T/6=3.8yrs using only bonds to raise enough debt to keep afloat.
Hence why I say people get all these collapse calls wrong all the time. If I stand outside and say it’ll rain I’ll eventually be correct but that doesn’t mean I have any understanding or knowledge about the weather system. I just kept guessing.
I am out of my depth to follow your calculation but thanks anyway.
You are so right about doom and gloom economists, if you listen them you are out of any opportunity to invest and get your share from cycles.
Take Peter Schiff, he is preaching about dollar collapse for over a decade.
Even if this eventually happens, you don't gain much with such outlook.
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According to Zillow the value of my house increased by nearly $50,000. in the last 30 days or 7.1%. That's just crazy! Homes around here are selling over asking price with bidding wars as soon as they hit the market. A for sale sign goes up and a couple of days later there's a pending sticker on it. If this isn't inflation, I don't know what is.
Of course there's no point in selling unless I planned to move somewhere where I can get more house for the money or if I wanted to downsize and invest the proceeds elsewhere.
The two bags of groceries I bought the other day came to $72. and I didn't buy any meat because I did that already at Costco where I spent $150 for meats and cheeses plus some pesto and a jar of bruschetta topping. Heck, it costs me around $100 a month to feed my Rat Terrier, but she's a picky eater and gets Sojos high end freeze dried dog food, which runs just over $80. for a 7 lb. bag.
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According to Zillow the value of my house increased by nearly $50,000. in the last 30 days or 7.1%. That's just crazy! Homes around here are selling over asking price with bidding wars as soon as they hit the market. A for sale sign goes up and a couple of days later there's a pending sticker on it. If this isn't inflation, I don't know what is.
Of course there's no point in selling unless I planned to move somewhere where I can get more house for the money or if I wanted to downsize and invest the proceeds elsewhere.
The two bags of groceries I bought the other day came to $72. and I didn't buy any meat because I did that already at Costco where I spent $150 for meats and cheeses plus some pesto and a jar of bruschetta topping. Heck, it costs me around $100 a month to feed my Rat Terrier, but she's a picky eater and gets Sojos high end freeze dried dog food, which runs just over $80. for a 7 lb. bag.
It's a bubble, not inflation.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/27/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-house-price-inflation-ignored-by-cpi-april-update/
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It’s inflation of financial assets as a result of QE, low rates and loosening of debt.
The rich love it because they get rich.
The poor love it because they get a lot more money than they used to.
The middle class get swelling debt, no pay rise and an increased risk of being made redundant.
Middle class gunna get nuked!