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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Mayday on March 06, 2022, 05:48:08 PM
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This thread should be pinned as we update.
US is the world’s superpower. Under threat from a China who each year grows closer to the top spot.
TLDR:
The US was at war in 2019 to take out China and Russia
2019-2020 pandemic breaks supply chains
2021 the west begins energy plant closures
2022 the west sends people back to work amid energy crisis and begins a war which results in an even greater energy crisis
Yet to come:
2022 Mar-Jun a likely deflationary event on GFC scale
2022 cyber attacks. Cloud outages. Internet outages as Russia and China retaliate.
Late 2022 food shortages resulting in price hikes like never before
What do you do?
Buy electric scooters and bikes
Buy luxury goods or hard to find items ASAP (I did that in mid 2020)
Wait for the deflationary event and buy crypto.
Decrease your footprint —> less travel, cook at home, eat at home, grow veggies, get solar panels on cars and home (I run a 60L fridge in my Ute 24/7 from solar).
This is world war 3, it’s just the futuristic edition where it’s fought with economics and technology. The aim is to fracture the global supply chain model, collapse energy availability, reduce consumption and cause starvation.
Breaking the consumption supply chain —>
2019 December - the covid-19 virus is detected in Wuhan China. China govt sweeps it under the carpet while Taiwan goes apeshit trying to alert the world.
2020 March we have a first ever global shutdown. Govt debt skyrockets. Stimmy money handed out to allow people to make debt repayments. People transition to working and schooling from home. People adapt to less travel. This transition/adaption takes place over almost 2yrs.
Airlines are grounded and never fully recover. We lose most of our logical air freight. Sea freight becomes the only option but our ports cannot cope with seasonality. We don’t have enough trucks to carry containers. Drivers with covid can’t drive. Supply chain breaks, upward pricing pressure on consumer goods. Monetary policy sees debasement of currency but not hyper inflation.
Breaking the energy supply chain —>
US closes oil pipelines. Germany closes Nuclear plants. The west decides to close off coal…..
2022 February the globe decides the pandemic is over. Everybody back to work while they were shutting off all our cheap energy. This puts immediate strain on people who just transitioned to working from home cost wise. We now face HUGE energy drawings as we mobilise everybody.
2022 Feb/Mar just as we mobilise our citizens to cause massive energy consumption, we just happen to have Ukraine want to join NATO and as a result, starts a war with Russia. Resulting in a breaking of the energy supply chain as we see Russian oil with nowhere to go and gas cut off. Oil and coal skyrocket as countries scramble for an alternative.
Russia begins to default on debt and pays in debased Rubles. The West who own the debt will backstop and print USD to bailout.
Breaking the food supply chain —>
In a world with a now crippled air logistics, sea logistics, spiralling upwards energy prices we begin to see countries refuse to export products for food and food production. Russia has 40% of the world’s ammonium nitrate for fertiliser which they ban exports on. China running dry on food bans exports in their phosphate for fertiliser production. Not yet played out but yields from food will drop considerably. No consumption, high energy, no food, currency debasement
We have a deflationary event about to happen this year in 2022.
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We have plenty of natural reserves here. I suppose next you want everyone to go into lockdown and work from home to decrease carbon footprint?
Sticky this in the SAG section of Hollywood so jet setters and Al Gore will stop flying their private planes to run errands.
Easiest thing to do, stop voting libtard and drill for oil and get energy independence as we were with Trump - this wouldn’t be an issue.
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libtards...smh
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They all wanted Trump out.
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Forgive my ignorance, but why would you purchase luxury goods ASAP before the deflationary event? Wouldn't the same item cost less after the event?
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Forgive my ignorance, but why would you purchase luxury goods ASAP before the deflationary event? Wouldn't the same item cost less after the event?
More, price of everything goes up but even then people are still willing to pay. Example cars, prices increased but people still buying even though those cars are way over msrp.
If you had bought/ordered a corvette in 20/21 you could turn around now and sell 15-25k more.
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I have a feeling things will get worse but 2023 we will have to see prices drop if the democrats want a chance at the presidency.
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More, price of everything goes up but even then people are still willing to pay. Example cars, prices increased but people still buying even though those cars are way over msrp.
If you had bought/ordered a corvette in 20/21 you could turn around now and sell 15-25k more.
Wouldn't this describe inflation?
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I could easily live of the grid , hips of fruits,wildlife & clean jungle water around !.
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I have land and property in a 3rd world craphole if I ever need to escape. TBH if things turn to shit in Europe and this is WW3 I'd probably rather still be there if it gets nuked. It's not like I'd know about it so nothing really to miss or regret. I've lived in luxury for too long to go back to slumming it.
Also BBBY is a squeeze play if you need a distraction
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Yet to come:
2022 Mar-Jun a likely deflationary event on GFC scale
Ok, let's talk macroeconomics.
For deflation to occur, you typically have 1 of 2 scenarios that play out.
Scenario I: Either you have an overwhelming amount of goods and services available on the market, which causes too much supply that overpowers demand and then leads to a drastic reduction in the price of said goods and services. This won't be the case because our supply chain is broken and Russia and China aren't too happy with us.
Scenario II: You have a drastic contraction of the currency supply, which forces prices of goods and services to go down because there's just very little available currency to use for trade. I'm assuming this is the scenario you see playing out. If so, what would be your catalyst?
Are you leaning on the idea of the FED doing 3 things? Those 3 things being (1) Stop quantitative easing (less money creating), (2) reducing their balance sheet through reverse repo market (taking money off the street) and (3) drastically raising rates (making money expensive to borrow out, which translates to less money in circulation).
If not for the FED bringing deflation about or at least contributing, what else will do it? Further mass resignations? Businesses going out of business due to cost of raw resources and lack of cheap labor?
Yet to come:
2022 cyber attacks. Cloud outages. Internet outages as Russia and China retaliate.
Definitely see this coming.
"1"
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Forgive my ignorance, but why would you purchase luxury goods ASAP before the deflationary event? Wouldn't the same item cost less after the event?
You don’t wait because what happens is less choice with much higher price over time. Just go back to Mar 2020 and then look now.
I did things in 2020 when the pandemic hit which was risk that 99% of people simply could never decide to do let alone at the speed I did them in. It’s in a post on here somewhere.
Basically I bought everything in 2020 and 2021 with debt and leveraged myself to the tits. I kept my cash spare. Fast forward 18mths and the 95% LVR I used to build large and high spec home is 50% LVR. I made 7 figs since the pandemic by my strategy under the assumption consumption is reduced and currency is debased.
An example of goods is we purchased 5 slabs of marble from Italy and paid in full in early 2021 in exchange for free storage. This was pure gluttony front running. Today it’s 5x the price and the options of slabs are down by 60%……
For luxury goods it’s a case of you simply won’t be able to afford them because the price increases are mammoth in dollar terms. LV bag might be 3k but after a price hike it might be 4.5k then it’ll have another hike to 6k. It happens.
I purchased a nice drinks cart for our cellar. Paid $750 for a discontinued one and the replacement was 1,400 and they had no stock for months of the new one.
Want a Rolex? In 2020 it might have been 15k and today 25k. Waiting won’t help you for luxury goods because their price is pegged to the 2% wealthy money not pleb income.
Deflationary events fuck up plebs. We lose income, you ain’t splurging during a GFC. You can wait until after but the stock might not be there and it might be priced higher. That’s the risk.
Does that help?
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libtards...smh
arent they the biggest retard, anti-us scumbag commies ever??
really 'no-IQ kvnts' who deserve what they get, but of course it affects everyone
only good-libtard is a dead-libtard
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just ordered oil for a delivery today
price was like a 1.69 under trump
i feel bad for those who may not make great money and also have a strict budget
not good
--------------------------------
TODAY’S OIL PRICE IS $4.599 PER GALLON.
(Payment is required at time of delivery.)
250 Gallons = $1,149.75
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I have land and property in a 3rd world craphole if I ever need to escape. TBH if things turn to shit in Europe and this is WW3 I'd probably rather still be there if it gets nuked. It's not like I'd know about it so nothing really to miss or regret. I've lived in luxury for too long to go back to slumming it.
Also BBBY is a squeeze play if you need a distraction
Supposedly in EU iodin/kelp is in huge demand ?.
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Ok, let's talk macroeconomics.
For deflation to occur, you typically have 1 of 2 scenarios that play out.
Scenario I: Either you have an overwhelming amount of goods and services available on the market, which causes too much supply that overpowers demand and then leads to a drastic reduction in the price of said goods and services. This won't be the case because our supply chain is broken and Russia and China aren't too happy with us.
Scenario II: You have a drastic contraction of the currency supply, which forces prices of goods and services to go down because there's just very little available currency to use for trade. I'm assuming this is the scenario you see playing out. If so, what would be your catalyst?
Are you leaning on the idea of the FED doing 3 things? Those 3 things being (1) Stop quantitative easing (less money creating), (2) reducing their balance sheet through reverse repo market (taking money off the street) and (3) drastically raising rates (making money expensive to borrow out, which translates to less money in circulation).
If not for the FED bringing deflation about or at least contributing, what else will do it? Further mass resignations? Businesses going out of business due to cost of raw resources and lack of cheap labor?
Definitely see this coming.
"1"
When I say deflation think money supply reduction.
Nothing wipes out the money supply faster than the financial markets because of the leverage.
Don’t worry about consumer inventory so much. In other words, we have a GFC then immediately back it up with global food and energy shortages and it’s the maximum pressure you can apply.
The 2022 mass resignation is going to happen as cost pressure and lack of wage inflation force employees to look for work from home arrangements. Business will adapt.
But, the assumption is war therefore it’s primarily hurt the opponent.
Look at the market ‘soft’ unloading onto retail who have been ‘trained’ to buy the dip. Retail is last bag holders before a crash and we’ve had record Jan and Feb retail buying in shares. Yes it’s fucked. CDS tells us it’s fucked. Credit crisis inbound now.
We can limp along but for China and Russia on the other hand…… they’ll be stuck addressing proper starvation mode.
My strategy for 2022 is this:
Financial deflationary event triggers a GFC
Fed let’s the market go down further than people think
Buy the dippers get wrecked coming in too early —> perhaps a 2 wave crash?
Certain crypto purchases
I already have nice cars but I will buy a couple of Ducati motorbikes this year.
I already bought property so issa Ok
I already bought luxuries so issa ok
I already moved to regional but I will purchase land much more regional and perhaps in NZ. Country folk always faired the best in crisis because they make the food. City folk got wrecked.
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Just bought more toilet paper so I'm prepared for when the sh*t hits the fan.
(https://media1.tenor.com/images/8708d3382ce7d753144f8a802e35a9c8/tenor.gif?itemid=12382663)
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Ummmm in a world with sky high energy and sky high food prices do you really think India, China and a Russia dominate?
No.
You think $1 shops gunna dominate global economics?
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Russia disconnecting from internet…..
I posted earlier about the superconductor chips being bought up by China and Russia (no supply shortage just diverted). Russia and China are looking to cut off from the west and eliminate western hardware and software.
Well, It’s now confirmed.
Massive, massive red flag right here. Risk of internet and cloud services going down as previously mentioned be a use guess where we outsourced all our energy, server and cloud tech?
S&P500 gunna get torn up….
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Ummmm in a world with sky high energy and sky high food prices do you really think India, China and a Russia dominate?
No.
You think $1 shops gunna dominate global economics?
no idea, just posting a meme
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Seems like the US government is starting to cozy up to Iran to get more oil pumping.
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we need to produce our own again
crooked pant-shitter/corrupt retards
https://www.instagram.com/tv/CazpzrLDZum/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
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Seems like the US government is starting to cozy up to Iran to get more oil pumping.
And Venezuela. Twilight zone.
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Yet to come:
2022 cyber attacks. Cloud outages. Internet outages as Russia and China retaliate.
What are you doing to protect your crypto holdings? Cold wallet (ie ledger)?
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What are you doing to protect your crypto holdings? Cold wallet (ie ledger)?
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I haven’t held crypto since December- early Jan But when I do it’ll be multiple cold storage devices.
Seems like the US government is starting to cozy up to Iran to get more oil pumping.
Creation of new supply chain with different players. US can switch on their own oil drilling aswell but I believe Biden will let price go up to 150-200 range and then kick into gear on that. It’s global recession territory right there which helps pull consumption down. This time we need to see if price stays high and becomes a new norm. If so, that’s indicative of this thread being on the right track.
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Oil above $120 won’t be a new norm since legislators get involved and the oil industry does not want more governance than there is. They like it at $80 making money and quiet.
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Oil above $120 won’t be a new norm since legislators get involved and the oil industry does not want more governance than there is. They like it at $80 making money and quiet.
It’ll keep going higher for now until green tech is being built. After that happens oil is almost worthless……
Higher oil price —> lower consumption —> expensive green energy looks feasible —> green energy adoption on mass scale —> reduced demand on oil/gas = lower price = oil countries no longer hold control over the world.
Oil collapses to a handful of dollars after this. End of the ME. End of Russia.
Meanwhile oil futures tapped 130 last night. Go back to the GFC and the market sold off for 7 months straight while energy rallied to a peak. We have had 3 months sell off…… the sanctions made by both sides works to hold the price floor up because supply is being strangled relentlessly.
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My Exxon stock is cranking.
And I have a sh*tload of toilet paper.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/qr0FOwPgUk3Cw/giphy.gif)
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i feel bad for those on fixed income/budget.
161 gallons of heating oil cost $740.90 this am.
same amount under Trump and us produced energy cost $302.00.
(wife has to keep receipts for her biz/tax purposes).
folks that are struggling, i feel for them, it must be horrible.
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i feel bad for those on fixed income/budget.
161 gallons of heating oil cost $740.90 this am.
same amount under Trump and us produced energy cost $302.00.
(wife has to keep receipts for her biz/tax purposes).
folks that are struggling, i feel for them, it must be horrible.
It depends on who they voted for, if I feel bad for them. Some people are getting what they asked for.
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i feel bad for those on fixed income/budget.
161 gallons of heating oil cost $740.90 this am.
same amount under Trump and us produced energy cost $302.00.
(wife has to keep receipts for her biz/tax purposes).
folks that are struggling, i feel for them, it must be horrible.
Anyone using oil heat will get killed. At least the heating season is almost over.
I had a house once that has two large oil tanks for the oil burner heat.
At the time oil was around 90 cents a gallon.
Scary to think of filling those tanks now.
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Maybe the OP missed its target with me, because beyond good Scotch I could give a fuck about luxuries. Forgive me but turning a profit on some Carrera marble in the philistine driven micro-economy of Australia doesn't mean you have a crystal ball showing what's going to happen in countries that actually geo-politically matter and aren't just waiting around to be gobbled up by China.
You're way better informed than I in matters of economics. No question. But to prognosticate down to the month while peppering in brags about making millions and buying sports bikes, etc? Sure you haven't maybe had a couple scotches yourself there, bloke?
Maybe you'll be correct. Wtf do I know? But investing in luxury items while also growing vegetables and running off to NZ is the weirdest prepper advice/strategy I've ever seen.
Maybe I'm just sick of the endless The End Is Nigh shit and it's making me surly. If the end comes I've got water and I'll cannibalize my neighbors and any Peace Agents who turn up. That's it. That's my Great Collapse prep plan.
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Oil above $120 won’t be a new norm since legislators get involved and the oil industry does not want more governance than there is. They like it at $80 making money and quiet.
Historically, whenever there’s been a sharp rise like this in oil it’s eventually been followed by a corresponding sharp decline.
Not to say this time won’t be different but trends tend to continue.
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It’ll keep going higher for now until green tech is being built. After that happens oil is almost worthless……
Higher oil price —> lower consumption —> expensive green energy looks feasible —> green energy adoption on mass scale —> reduced demand on oil/gas = lower price = oil countries no longer hold control over the world.
Oil collapses to a handful of dollars after this. End of the ME. End of Russia.
Meanwhile oil futures tapped 130 last night. Go back to the GFC and the market sold off for 7 months straight while energy rallied to a peak. We have had 3 months sell off…… the sanctions made by both sides works to hold the price floor up because supply is being strangled relentlessly.
It’ll keep going higher, but won’t be allowed to be a new normal because average citizens will demand “accountability” and caps on prices then you’ll have some type of government intervention. Politicians have constituents they still need to pander to. This is going to hurt a lot of people for awhile, especially since US just scuttled Russian oil.
If this is a “new normal” then we are really witnessing a green reset. If the green push has brought us to this point and governments tell people it’s the new normal and there isn’t even green infrastructure set up to generate energy needs of today, then it’s a race to the bottom for humanity.
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Ok, let's talk macroeconomics.
For deflation to occur, you typically have 1 of 2 scenarios that play out.
Scenario I: Either you have an overwhelming amount of goods and services available on the market, which causes too much supply that overpowers demand and then leads to a drastic reduction in the price of said goods and services. This won't be the case because our supply chain is broken and Russia and China aren't too happy with us.
Scenario II: You have a drastic contraction of the currency supply, which forces prices of goods and services to go down because there's just very little available currency to use for trade. I'm assuming this is the scenario you see playing out. If so, what would be your catalyst?
Are you leaning on the idea of the FED doing 3 things? Those 3 things being (1) Stop quantitative easing (less money creating), (2) reducing their balance sheet through reverse repo market (taking money off the street) and (3) drastically raising rates (making money expensive to borrow out, which translates to less money in circulation).
If not for the FED bringing deflation about or at least contributing, what else will do it? Further mass resignations? Businesses going out of business due to cost of raw resources and lack of cheap labor?
Definitely see this coming.
"1"
The cyber attacks part you highlighted sounds like it's going to happen soon. MSNBC actually just put up a clip about "Anonymous" putting out a vid saying they are banning together to go after Putin/Russia, and have hit 1500+ sites already. For once, I agree with this leftist bag of shit of reporters over there, when they reported that the biggest worry with this is that Putin will blame it on us and declare we are now at war and attack us.
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Oil above $120 won’t be a new norm since legislators get involved and the oil industry does not want more governance than there is. They like it at $80 making money and quiet.
Just shy of $130 as of 10am EST today. News on CNN and Fox clip said $150 by the end of next week is likely, and basically that Memorial Day is going to be a big "holy shit" for all of us if people actually even bother travelling all over still by then.
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the day the pant-shitter got into office and shut down our energy dependence so he can profit, we were fucked
the most corrupt, senile, "50-yrs of useless" piece of shit ever
makes me want to ring the neck of every libturd i see
hoping the handful here drop dead from their jabs soon, commie-kvnts
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he was right yet again
https://www.instagram.com/tv/Ca2SSp3jY-L/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
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dumbest people in history
Democrats want you to buy $57,000 EV Cars while Inflation and Gas Prices SKYROCKET to save the world ::) ::)
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dumbest in history
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The crappypants adminstration is still trying to reduce domestic oil and natural gas production despite this on-going war. We have the most moronic political class in American history.
But hey! At least we don't get mean tweets any more!
Assuming that the 2020 election was legitimate, the majority of American voters proved to be the most unbelievably shallow idiots I could ever have imagined.
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The crappypants adminstration is still trying to reduce domestic oil and natural gas production despite this on-going war. We have the most moronic political class in American history.
But hey! At least we don't get mean tweets any more!
Assuming that the 2020 election was legitimate, the majority of American voters proved to be the most unbelievably shallow idiots I could ever have imagined.
The 2020 election was not legitimate and the next one won't be either.
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The crappypants adminstration is still trying to reduce domestic oil and natural gas production despite this on-going war. We have the most moronic political class in American history.
But hey! At least we don't get mean tweets any more!
Assuming that the 2020 election was legitimate, the majority of American voters proved to be the most unbelievably shallow idiots I could ever have imagined.
true
i doubt it was legit (election) they (prez's) are basically put in place
but yes, pant-shitter and kamel-toe, they cant string together a thought or sentence between 'em
truly the dumbest people ever on that stage
if voting was legit, you are correct Abe, easily the stupidist kult of retards that ever existed (voters)
many have realized they made a mistake and its badly affecting their lives, struggling mightily to squeak by
the libtards here who keep crying about trump (who has zero to do with this mess and everything to do with what happened under him)
are even more braindead than most.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNSV6zqWUAMq7dL?format=jpg&name=large)
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ugly nancy, also dumb as a rock, and perfect example of the braindead libs running around out there killing america
another hero to the brainless ::)
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Joe Biden announces BAN on Russian oil to the U.S., but things are about to get A LOT WORSE for you!
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It already started…..lol
On Tuesday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) reacted to President Joe Biden’s ban on U.S. imports of Russian oil and gas by stating that Congress should monitor the profits of oil companies and “profit margins should not go up. That’s just oil companies gouging when they do that. So, we’re going to be on them on this.”
I know a good bit of crude oil traders, they don’t like over $100, starts getting political. I’m sure drilling companies think different but seems to me that the ones that have some of government leases don’t even use them because of all the restrictions.
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The crappypants adminstration is still trying to reduce domestic oil and natural gas production despite this on-going war. We have the most moronic political class in American history.
But hey! At least we don't get mean tweets any more!
Assuming that the 2020 election was legitimate, the majority of American voters proved to be the most unbelievably shallow idiots I could ever have imagined.
Good post.
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It already started…..lol
On Tuesday’s broadcast of MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) reacted to President Joe Biden’s ban on U.S. imports of Russian oil and gas by stating that Congress should monitor the profits of oil companies and “profit margins should not go up. That’s just oil companies gouging when they do that. So, we’re going to be on them on this.”
I know a good bit of crude oil traders, they don’t like over $100, starts getting political. I’m sure drilling companies think different but seems to me that the ones that have some of government leases don’t even use them because of all the restrictions.
Of all the idiotic Government interventions, price controls is at the top.
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It’ll keep going higher, but won’t be allowed to be a new normal because average citizens will demand “accountability” and caps on prices then you’ll have some type of government intervention. Politicians have constituents they still need to pander to. This is going to hurt a lot of people for awhile, especially since US just scuttled Russian oil.
If this is a “new normal” then we are really witnessing a green reset. If the green push has brought us to this point and governments tell people it’s the new normal and there isn’t even green infrastructure set up to generate energy needs of today, then it’s a race to the bottom for humanity.
You are witnessing economic war with an outcome of massively reduced Consumption and mobility with green energy if this thread is going to be proven to be true.
We know US oil loves $100 and up and Biden can ramp US drilling then ban exports in order to control US domestic price. That is the US solution to domestic oil consumption So we wait and see at what price does he step in.
To hurt Russia they need sky high energy prices AND the war to continue in order to pursue further sanctions driving energy even higher. They need high commodity prices in order to reduce consumption enough that it reduces production in China to hurt them economically.
I said from the start in 2020, buy your wants back then because over time the odds are we run out of things and they never come back or you simply won’t be able to afford them anymore. I am 300k ahead in 18mths on purchases so I walk my talk here, this isn’t baseless throwaway statements.
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DXY continues to show sell off happening. Previous high target of 1.03.
Everyone so scared of missing out they are dip buying constantly. Safest IMO is to wait for a bottom and then go.
My strategy was mentioned in another thread —> Q2 eats shit, Q3 Rocky, Q4 stimmy handouts
You buy in after the bottom is done and then stimmy money will be handed out to assist with food and fuel towards the end of year. Stimmy will flow into shares and crypto just like 2020-2021 and we see 2023 rip.
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US Feb CPI print @ 7.9% up from 7.5% and the Whitehouse message is it’s Putin’s fault lol.
Social media platforms are shutting off hate speech filters to allow calls of violence against Russians and Putin. Again, keeping people distracted with division and pushing hatred and violence to occupy the plebs.
Meanwhile here we just had calls surfacing to reinstate masking mandates and working from home immediately. New covid variant is going to kill us…..again….. govt held off so far but lockdown type scenario likely coming.
Per my opening post, this is rinse and repeat with deflationary event followed by inflationary policy which is designed to rip the guts out of consumer demand and break the global supply chain. You will get your 2% CPI and you will be happy……
**edit - again to emphasise buy your electric shit now. Electric garden, electric scooters, electric bikes, whatever it is.
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Media is pushing China covid lockdowns….. is that even real? This covid strain supposed to be worse yet that isn’t how viruses work. using even basic data we know covid has become LESS lethal with each season.
Then media reporting Russia has asked China to support their declaration of war……
And just like magic we see China become drawn into the Russia conflict and an enemy of the West.
Just remember, cloud services and most internet is based in China and I mentioned last year to prepare to cyber attacks and cloud/app outages as China begins to come into play.
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Just remember, cloud services and most internet is based in China and I mentioned last year to prepare to cyber attacks and cloud/app outages as China begins to come into play.
Just to play devil's advocate for a moment.
There are a lot of moving parts at the present time.
There's talk about the advent of a new global economic system, some are speculating it could be a decoupling from the US dollar as the world reserve currency given that FIAT is losing fanfare worldwide and nations are wondering why they should continue to place their faith on the US government. Piggybacking off that are talks about recoupling currencies back to the gold standard, some are calling this the proverbial Bretton Woods 3 where we restore convertibility of the US dollar to gold for restored faith. There's a lot of backroom talk about this phenomenon given the strange comments made by Jerome Powell regarding the potential for there to be more than a single reserve currency, not to mention the numerous nations (Russia and China to say the least) that are tired of the USA.
There is also mention of a possible black swan event, something of a cyber attack. We have been warned by numerous talking heads within the government and MSM. Although I am not certain as to the how behind it, speculation is leaning towards a possible electromagnetic pulse that knocks out all internet capabilities world wide and could resort in a wipe out of all financial information and assets held digitally in banks.
Again, there is a lot going on at the present moment. Some would say it's become quite overwhelming in trying to keep up with all the moving parts. I wish I could make a simple crumb trail of bullet points to highlight what things are looking/sounding most probable and what best approaches to take to better prepare ourselves, but I am slowly just starting to put the pieces to this puzzle together and it looks grim.
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Over 5M views. Sums things up pretty well.
UFC fighter clip in this is GOLD.
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Media is pushing China covid lockdowns….. is that even real? This covid strain supposed to be worse yet that isn’t how viruses work. using even basic data we know covid has become LESS lethal with each season.
Then media reporting Russia has asked China to support their declaration of war……
And just like magic we see China become drawn into the Russia conflict and an enemy of the West.
Just remember, cloud services and most internet is based in China and I mentioned last year to prepare to cyber attacks and cloud/app outages as China begins to come into play.
Pfizer pushing fourth jab today. Citing absolute necessity since Korea and China are back on lockdowns.
I think you’re right on cloud services this year will be a major crash/outage that’ll bring down several companies.
Biden admitted during the caucus address last week that with these new high energy prices, companies should focus on new technology so the push for green is what he said he is telling companies to push for. This is going to crush families.
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Just to play devil's advocate for a moment.
There are a lot of moving parts at the present time.
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This is why I playfully give 120 IQ a hard time.
There are lots of moving parts which you cannot quantify. Why pretend you can? I can’t and I don’t (I say this nicely btw).
Black swan is overused. We are in a deflationary phase since December, events happen as a result.
Ok so we get a new currency in a decade’s time…… this was clear as day to me 2yrs ago so what did you do? The fear you need to have is what if your debt today is transferred in real terms To a new currency? Nobody thinking about that one!
Pfizer pushing fourth jab today. Citing absolute necessity since Korea and China are back on lockdowns.
I think you’re right on cloud services this year will be a major crash/outage that’ll bring down several companies.
Biden admitted during the caucus address last week that with these new high energy prices, companies should focus on new technology so the push for green is what he said he is telling companies to push for. This is going to crush families.
I posted my numbers in another thread which was the risk calculation on covid. Basically the 3rd wave which everyone got whilst walking around was the same odds of dying as the first one with everybody locked up. The 4th wave will be less deadly but media pushing we all gunna die.
Green energy is good. I like it. I run my 60L fridge 24x7 in my Ute (pickup) filled with drinks powered by a solar panel. Issa good!
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Looks like traders and hedge funds piled into oil and got worked. They deserve it. It’s a stupid strategy to try to chase returns at a time like this. Instead of thinking about how to make money your top priority should be how to not lose it. Cash is the place to be.
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Ok so we get a new currency in a decade’s time…… this was clear as day to me 2yrs ago so what did you do? The fear you need to have is what if your debt today is transferred in real terms To a new currency? Nobody thinking about that one!
I've thought about that. Actually, I read about that back in 2016. Here, take a look: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/ (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/)
Excerpts: “I don't own anything. I don't own a car. I don't own a house. I don't own any appliances or any clothes” "Shopping is a distant memory in the city of 2030, whose inhabitants have cracked clean energy and borrow what they need on demand"
If you don't own anything and simply borrow whatever you need, the idea of debt is wiped out. That is their agenda's Utopian setting.
This seems like what the future will certainly look like. Look at their leadership (a real who's who with everything from royalty, former White House Vice Presidents, BlackRock CEO, UN reps etc): https://www.weforum.org/about/leadership-and-governance (https://www.weforum.org/about/leadership-and-governance)
Something like this could play out within 5-10 years. In the meantime, there will probably be a transitional phase where paper currency gets replaced by solely digital currency (imagine just using a debit card everywhere you go - pretty practical since most people already do). After digital currency is what solely exists, maybe a truly centralized CBDC (worldwide currency) becomes established and all privacy rights go out the window (ie brings in complete control with your whereabouts being monitored at all times, think China but worldwide). Then we graduate to the WEF Utopian view described in the link above.
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I've thought about that. Actually, I read about that back in 2016. Here, take a look: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/ (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/8-predictions-for-the-world-in-2030/)
Excerpts: “I don't own anything. I don't own a car. I don't own a house. I don't own any appliances or any clothes” "Shopping is a distant memory in the city of 2030, whose inhabitants have cracked clean energy and borrow what they need on demand"
If you don't own anything and simply borrow whatever you need, the idea of debt is wiped out. That is their agenda's Utopian setting.
This seems like what the future will certainly look like. Look at their leadership (a real who's who with everything from royalty, former White House Vice Presidents, BlackRock CEO, UN reps etc): https://www.weforum.org/about/leadership-and-governance (https://www.weforum.org/about/leadership-and-governance)
Something like this could play out within 5-10 years. In the meantime, there will probably be a transitional phase where paper currency gets replaced by solely digital currency (imagine just using a debit card everywhere you go - pretty practical since most people already do). After digital currency is what solely exists, maybe a truly centralized CBDC (worldwide currency) becomes established and all privacy rights go out the window (ie brings in complete control with your whereabouts being monitored at all times, think China but worldwide). Then we graduate to the WEF Utopian view described in the link above.
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This would also wipe out the underground economy.
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This would also wipe out the underground economy.
Indeed.
Total police state with heavily fascist principles.
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Looks like traders and hedge funds piled into oil and got worked. They deserve it. It’s a stupid strategy to try to chase returns at a time like this. Instead of thinking about how to make money your top priority should be how to not lose it. Cash is the place to be.
Everything getting hit today as people are scared of the Fed.
Buy the dip everybody cos we gunna rally hard from 7.9% CPI……
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If you’ve studied history, you might know how this is going to end...
Not well for the Ukrainians, not well for the Russians, and certainly not well for the West.
"Does anyone think that persecuting oligarchs will force Putin to turn his tanks around?
The same applies to sanctions. It is pure magical thinking to imagine that sanctions, which have never worked with any country in the past, will have cast some kind of spell over Russia and make it desist. No media presenter ever asks the politicians to explain the precise mechanism by which this alchemy is to be accomplished, just as they never asked how lockdowns or masks worked in the face of all evidence. Neither do we hear anybody ask if the politicians and sages seriously think Russian soldiers will ever leave Ukraine while sanctions remain in place.
Myths need heroes as well as villains. Cue the Vaccines, the Holy Trinity of Pfizer, Astra Zeneca and Moderna, recently joined by NATO as heroes of the hour.
Vaccines, like baptism, used to be a rite of passage for children when I was growing up. Now in these infantilised times they are a rite of passage for adults. Alongside the use of face diapers.
NATO, the Sword in Horsemen of the Apocalypse terms, was not long ago seen by the Presidents of the United States and France no less than an example of the living dead. Now it has cranked up out of its coffin, been given a booster shot and is miraculously revived.
Pulling all these elements together, what we have here with the present war fever is a form of the millennialism which has been emerging and shape-shifting in various guises for over thirty years. Diagnosing the hysteria and showing by what threads its various strands are joined is a useful first step to overcoming it.
By the way, the Horseman of The Apocalypse yet to make an appearance is Famine. Have you checked forward prices for grain?"
***
Author Peter Ford is a global affair analyst and former British Ambassador to Syria (2003-2006) and Bahrain (1999-2002).
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Indeed.
Total police state with heavily fascist principles.
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We will have a social credit system like China.
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Everything getting hit today as people are scared of the Fed.
Buy the dip everybody cos we gunna rally hard from 7.9% CPI……
When you see this it typically means there aren’t going to be any relief rallies.
Stock Market Outlook: Sell Any Relief Rally As Risks Converge, MS Says
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-risks-bear-market-fed-oil-ukraine-russia-2022-3
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3 options:
1) no rate rise —> green light for stocks and inflationary trade. Kicks the can down the road waiting for the market to eventually sort itself out.
2) 0.25% rate rise —> market says they priced it in. Stock bounce. Consumer demand takes a hit due to increase mortgage costs, reduction in consumer demand immediately.
3) 0.5% rate rise —> my preferred outcome. Rips the faces off everything. Stock dump. Crypto dumps. Demand get the guts ripped out immediately and we see inflation immediately improve.
The ideal scenario is number 3 because it means CPI get under control quicker and proves the Fed are serious about the 2%. My strategy assumes the Fed are serious about CPI reduction prior to beginning the next inflationary phase. This also means the ‘deflationary event’ is the rate rise which means nuclear war won’t be (using universal assumptions).
Following universal law that a deflationary event will happen, if a rate rise isn’t it then it becomes replaced by another event. Nukes. Covid lockdown. Cyber attack. We don’t want those.
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3 options:
1) no rate rise —> green light for stocks and inflationary trade. Kicks the can down the road waiting for the market to eventually sort itself out.
2) 0.25% rate rise —> market says they priced it in. Stock bounce. Consumer demand takes a hit due to increase mortgage costs, reduction in consumer demand immediately.
3) 0.5% rate rise —> my preferred outcome. Rips the faces off everything. Stock dump. Crypto dumps. Demand get the guts ripped out immediately and we see inflation immediately improve.
The ideal scenario is number 3 because it means CPI get under control quicker and proves the Fed are serious about the 2%. My strategy assumes the Fed are serious about CPI reduction prior to beginning the next inflationary phase. This also means the ‘deflationary event’ is the rate rise which means nuclear war won’t be (using universal assumptions).
Following universal law that a deflationary event will happen, if a rate rise isn’t it then it becomes replaced by another event. Nukes. Covid lockdown. Cyber attack. We don’t want those.
Isn't the word around Wall Street that Powell is only going to raise it by 0.25% tomorrow? Supposedly, if inflation continues to worsen, the goal is to push rates up by 0.25%-0.50% in May.
0.50% is good, but I think he should go straight for the neck and increase it by 1%. This nonsense has gone on for long enough and I think it will only get worse.
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Isn't the word around Wall Street that Powell is only going to raise it by 0.25% tomorrow? Supposedly, if inflation continues to worsen, the goal is to push rates up by 0.25%-0.50% in May.
0.50% is good, but I think he should go straight for the neck and increase it by 1%. This nonsense has gone on for long enough and I think it will only get worse.
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Yeah pretty much 0.25% was said to be in the bag back in Jan from memory.
But 7.9% is pretty insane. In the older 80s metric we’d be somewhere in the 16% range which is an all time high for the USD.
The Fed probably has 1-2 shots to raise rates and that’s all. Raise hard early and you stop it quick while also providing runway to back out. Most of the time central banks are applying brakes into a recession because they misjudge the lag. We already have data showing the shit it hitting the fan so you want to hit the brakes now, not in 3 months time when the data is worse because you’ll make it worse. Plus a 0.5% now is likely all you’ll need.
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Media was attributing the sell off in Chinese tech stocks to Ukraine. They’ve been dropping for a year!
Now, we’re seeing a short squeeze but that won’t help long term investors who bought near the top:
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0.25% and everything flips green to rally.
Going long bullish into a global recession and deflationary period shows the level of degenerate gambling going on.
A 0.5% rate hike in June is now the highest odds. NDQ fell 22% to price in a 0.25% hike and now has 3 months to price in a 0.5% hike and people are euphoric on Twitter claiming the Fed can’t fight inflation.
Wrecked plebs.
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Just bought more toilet paper so I'm prepared for when the sh*t hits the fan.
(https://media1.tenor.com/images/8708d3382ce7d753144f8a802e35a9c8/tenor.gif?itemid=12382663)
Don't forget paper towels.
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The Keystone Pipeline would have created thousands of high paying jobs and provided a steady supply of oil from Canada all with ZERO tax payer dollars invested.
Biden canceled it on his first day office to help "stop global warming".
Is this his dumbest move ever?
:(
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0.25% and everything flips green to rally.
Going long bullish into a global recession and deflationary period shows the level of degenerate gambling going on.
A 0.5% rate hike in June is now the highest odds. NDQ fell 22% to price in a 0.25% hike and now has 3 months to price in a 0.5% hike and people are euphoric on Twitter claiming the Fed can’t fight inflation.
Wrecked plebs.
Financial news kept showing the rally in Chinese Internet stocks and you’d think they were doing great until you look at a one year chart.
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Year to date sector performance from best to worst. The shit people need at the top. What they don’t need at the bottom.
Communication Services includes entertainment which is doing very poorly.
Makes you think a recession is not far off regardless of what Powell says.
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Year to date sector performance from best to worst. The shit people need at the top. What they don’t need at the bottom.
Communication Services includes entertainment which is doing very poorly.
Makes you think a recession is not far off regardless of what Powell says.
Energy is like the shitcoin of crypto. It’s the last thing to rally and goes apeshit then wrecks everybody.
In this chart oil is inverse to S&P so down oil is up in price.
It’s the GFC all over again. Liquidity is up the creek. CDSs are going up, bond rates flatten. Head on into a 0.5% rate hike in June. And spastics are YOLO’ing into the market crazy hard today because they think it’s bullish and they just bought the dip LOL.
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https://www.instagram.com/tv/CbLo5xKpiq0/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
the silent libs of libturdia, destroying the country one douchebag at a time ::)
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The libtard voters will continue voting for libtards no matter how bad it gets for them. IT'S TRUMP'S FAULT!!!!!!!!!!!!
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You can always refer back to the front page for my thoughts for the main overview to what it means when we see stuff like this:
The IEA is now pushing we need to begin using less energy, travel less and slower, work from home, car free days.
Can’t get to work if you can’t even get fuel. Can’t charge your Tesla if you have a blackout.
The global supply chain is collapsing and is not coming back. Not enough energy. This next inflationary wave will honestly open people’s eyes:
*packaging changing —> cereal and packets of chips will shrink before your very eyes
*range consolidation —> no more 15 colours of a toaster, you might have 5
*brand consolidation—> not 8 brands on the shelf, only 1-3 brands
*bricks and mortar shops —> chain store reduce locations. Flagship stores become a new standard and investment in customer service is encouraged and improved
*no crazy sales unless going out of business
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TLDR:
1) fertiliser prices skyrocketing. Russia/China not exporting fertiliser materials anymore.
2) major food price impact by September on shelf. Expect 50%+ by year end.
3) Middle East, China, India, Pakistan, Africa all facing harsh conditions into 2023
4) forget takeaways, learn to cook and meal prep. Takeaway will be so fucking expensive in 6mths time you guys will likely start a ‘post your hamburger price here’ thread.
5) spending more on food means less spend on consumer goods…… do you see 👀?
6) we bought a chest freezer, holds 150 meals. We have reduced food wastage. We have probably 3 months of pasta and rice with 2 months of meals cook. Goal is for 1yr of pasta/rice on hand and top up as we draw down. During food shortages pasta and rice are the first to go because they are cheap and fill you up. You can’t have enough.
Fertiliser is something I have been watching the past month.
This is key for modern day food production. Fertiliser gives us higher yield and lower price as a result. Russia and China are no longer exporting their fertiliser products which leads the world heading short into food production. The war in Ukraine will lead to no planting season (or reduction) and therefore no food yield to export which is a double whammy on top of fertiliser.
Middle East, China, India (aka Dubai), Pakistan, Africa and Russia are all going to suffer greatly from lack of food production. Shitty land, large populations, less food.
For us we can expect a surge on food prices that you will begin to notice daily around September period or so. It’ll be like fuel where you one day suddenly click when seeing a price and from there you notice it going up each month.
My wife has begun food prepping in our new house since last week. Purchased a chest freezer which will hold 150 meals. I also have a 1,000 custom wine cellar being made up and we have a few hundred bottles at the moment until the cellar setup arrives.
We have zero food wastage in meal prep. My wife is a gun cook so I eat like a king. Plastic takeaway containers for any food not eaten. We have a partarre garden being built on our property which will grow lettuce and certain other veggies and plant stuff. Seeds already purchased. 2,000 plants were purchased 6mths ago for our garden, front ran every fucker on that one for sure lol.
Anyhoo, this is a thread of thoughts but also what actions one might take or at least prepare.
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The libtard voters will continue voting for libtards no matter how bad it gets for them. IT'S TRUMP'S FAULT!!!!!!!!!!!!
imagine being that brainless???
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Too many people with opinions,average working man just gets there head down to make money don't give a fuck what anyone else is doing. Stop trying to change the world, you're wasting you're fucking time, money and lives.
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Working man is about to get wrecked. Read the OP.
More supporting actions to my OP today when Germany just refused to pay Russia not only in Rubles but also EUR. They’re essentially saying to Russia supply us gas for free.
Germany has issued a statement to its people saying if you support Ukraine you will use less gas…… see where it’s headed on social media? Hatred inbound on anyone who uses gas because you are pro Russian….. plebs will go woke and freeze themselves.
Energy going bye bye. Food going bye bye. Probably 5months left now until you see the start of it on the shelves.
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From what I read today, Russia just cut off gas supply to Germany which is roughly 50% of what Germany uses.
Scenario seems to continue to play out.
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Italy announces plan to reliance on Russian gas by 2025.
Italy is working on short- and long-term plans to slash the amoun of natural gas imported from Russia, Minister for the Ecological Transition Roberto Cingolani said on Tuesday.
“24-30 months should be enough time for us to become independent [from Russian gas supplies],”
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Italy announces plan to reliance on Russian gas by 2025.
Italy is working on short- and long-term plans to slash the amoun of natural gas imported from Russia, Minister for the Ecological Transition Roberto Cingolani said on Tuesday.
“24-30 months should be enough time for us to become independent [from Russian gas supplies],”
It’s a very short timeline which shows how aggressive these countries are being. We cannot build replacement energy in 2yr which means…… consumption will be wrecked.
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Biden passed policy for the US to have 49mpg (4.8L/100km) countrywide vehicle fleet fuel economy average by 2026. Such an aggressive target in a short timeframe suggests this going to be driven by extremely high oil/fuel prices which forces production towards more economical cars. Inflationary pressure hints we can’t make enough cars at prices affordable today. therefore less cars and less people owning cars is the likely outcome from this policy.
Its a theme for energy reduction 2-3yrs that multiple countries are using. Generally it’s all over the place but allies now sending the same message on the same timeline.
German food chains are raising prices across the floor 20%-50% this week in April.
**edit Saudis will raise the price of oil to the US and EU in May. Biden has the 1m/day drawdown from SPR so US will be shielded somewhat from this next price squeeze. The rest of us can expect 125-150 range short term.
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It’s a very short timeline which shows how aggressive these countries are being. We cannot build replacement energy in 2yr which means…… consumption will be wrecked.
It's okay if they don't have rubles , Russia now takes gold too !.
Putin is winning !. :D
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It’s a very short timeline which shows how aggressive these countries are being. We cannot build replacement energy in 2yr which means…… consumption will be wrecked.
Italy does have gas, in the Adriatic, lots of towers sitting there, but not extracting the gas, considering it cheaper to buy instead.
Will now have to extract it themselves. Good for local jobs and industry at least.
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Latest US CPI print of 8.5%
The market just does not want to sell off but the parabola doesn’t lie, it’s decision time right now. Why the market hasn’t sold off already (only -10% from high) seems to boil down to people expecting a second exit rally WHILE we get 2 x 0.5% and the Fed selling off their assets (QT). This has happened in the past and that is why the market assumes we rally while tightening.
Hard to disagree with history but right now but we can’t find any buyers. I’m still watching, never say never but I see trend reversals across a lot of things to the downside now and that’s coming from a strong 2yr bullrun trend hard to reverse.
Supply crunch for Q4 is already forming today with China’s lockdown having imports anchored off port. Same sort of timing as the pandemic, component shortages to happen in Q2-Q3 which delays production then going into Q4 seasonality we get a supply chain crunch for a 3rd year in a row. The only thing that will help ease that pain is a global recession. Talk about the devil being your saviour lol.
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Fed rate rise in a week’s time.
Underlying data is showing a large drop in demand. Looking at if this May rate rise is possibly the last one the Fed can do and June is missed.
Once we get a bottom in the market starts to price in future QE. The EU looking to have a boycott on Russian oil. Watching for a bottom on commodity prices because that will likely be at or above the previous norm which tells you the kind of wage destruction coming for us.
This week I purchased 2 puppies with shops dog lineage. I also purchased an ESP Explorer (James Hetfield from Metallica). Can’t get these in the shops here. I tried ordering overseas and also no luck so I bought one used for a steal, I’d have paid new price for this used one.
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US Q1 2022 GDP printed as -1.4% vs a forecast of +1%.
This reflects the deflationary phase I have mentioned for months. It just doesn’t feel like we are sinking because demand is so strong but there is nothing in stock and prices are ripping up. If we had stock we’d see a weakened demand but it’s hidden from plain sight.
The cliffs are:
GDP -1.4%
Money supply = flat —> no threat of collapsing asset values IMO
DXY @ pandemic highs and currently parabolic generally meaning weeks left before reversal
Nasdaq is -23% from high vs pandemic -33% from highs
Looking more likely that May might be the only rate rise we see given GDP is already negative
Crypto looking for 30k low and go from there. A likely chance it goes to around the 20k mark for a real bottom.
Once this market bottom goes in I expect stimmy to come into play in Q4 likely for food purchases rather than direct cash payments. This next inflationary phase will hurt considerably and you will see consumer goods repriced to +30%-50% into 2023.
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Italy announces plan to reliance on Russian gas by 2025.
Italy is working on short- and long-term plans to slash the amoun of natural gas imported from Russia, Minister for the Ecological Transition Roberto Cingolani said on Tuesday.
“24-30 months should be enough time for us to become independent [from Russian gas supplies],”
Russia should stop supplying gas immediately and maybe start nuking a few countries for fun. Fuck this woke world it sucks anyway.
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in october of 2019 th financial system multinational banks use broke , meaning 1 + 1 no longer made 2 and it was going to be unvovered due to most of it never being audited
similar to what happened to lehman brothers and goldman in 2008
they got caught betting on it failing
mortgage backed secutities
20 to 1
there was more sold in insurance than home loans existed
have any of you noticed credit merchants have set new rules and are closing credit cards even though they are in good standing also decreasing credit limits as well
when ame showed the average oerson that the stock market is rigged big time quantitative easing started
cashless helps tje situation for them because it cant be audited
learn what the fear index is so you may start to see things more clearly
fear= covid it worked like a charm
and everone fell for it
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Walmart vs Disney Year to date. We all gotta eat. No one needs to go to Disneyland or to see their movies.
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Russia is a BIG exporter of fertilizer and its raw materials. potash, ammonia, urea. Plus, a lot of the natural gas that is the most expensive part of making nitrogen fertilizers comes from Russia. Nitrogen fertilizers are essential for farmers to get higher yields and produce enough food...
[/youtube]
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last year - heating oil 1.69. Today, 5.59 as a gallon.
Asinine retarded libturd admin and pant-shitter demturdz, wow theyre sick...
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Just announced by our left govt policy to help home buyers by the govt purchasing up to 40% equity in their home……
All these policies lead to currency debasement and deflation of wages while prices skyrocket but people will always vote for the handout so it’s a winning strategy for elections.
Food stimmy bucks coming and now we have a whiff of house stimmy bucks….
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Biden and Dems to attempt to buy votes by forgiving student loan debt.
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Just announced by our left govt policy to help home buyers by the govt purchasing up to 40% equity in their home……
All these policies lead to currency debasement and deflation of wages while prices skyrocket but people will always vote for the handout so it’s a winning strategy for elections.
Food stimmy bucks coming and now we have a whiff of house stimmy bucks….
The UK has been doing something like this for a while. It's fucked a few people over because of how it's implemented here.
But this is more can kicking than debasement as it isn't really a handout. It just gets more people taking on a mortgage and debt where typically they wouldn't be able to afford it.
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The UK has been doing something like this for a while. It's fucked a few people over because of how it's implemented here.
But this is more can kicking than debasement as it isn't really a handout. It just gets more people taking on a mortgage and debt where typically they wouldn't be able to afford it.
It increases M3 money supply so while not a direct debasement it increases the money supply using debt which will later have to be dealt with by the govt. either way if the money supply goes up, asset values go up.
it also turns non-market participants into debtors which increases the pool of buyers and applies price pressure to the market as existing buyers who don’t get support have to either pony up more or borrow more to outbid the govt supported buyers.
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After last night’s sell off this strategy is going to plan.
The scenario I am looking for is for things to play out before the June FOMC.
A bottoming signal might look like:
The S&P500 to bottom around 3,700-3,800
DXY breaks above 1.03 and heads to 1.10
Oil breaks below 95 and heads towards 80
10th June CPI print to be flat or down on the May number
Fed does not raise rates in June
I have said for a long time, deflationary event for inflationary policy.
On the supply front, China have fucked us royally for Q3-Q4 this year. You’ll see it in a few months time due to lag. We probably find ourselves with heaps of useless shit but the good stuff you want will still be missing.
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US is talking about price fixing fuel so I’ll outline for anyone why this doesn’t work and what is likely to now happen.
TLDR:
Prices going up curbs demand and then becomes equilibrium to prevent inventory outages.
Price fixing allows inventory outages
EU well ahead of the US on this issue
EU to lockdown over Covid in the near term in order to ‘hide’ the energy outage and prevent unrest.
Watch what Germany and EU do.
This is strategy and tactics for WW3 economic warfare.
As it’s fuel related we refer to WW3 economic warfare. The sanctions in Russia were energy related as outlined.
This cut off oodles of energy and resulted in upward pricing pressure on fuel. Prices go up until demand eases, then we see prices fall to equilibrium where supply and demand meet. On the way up, we can always buy fuel because price simply keeps going up. We don’t run out under floating price mechanism.
If the US govt fixes fuel prices it means they cap the very thing that eases demand. Meaning you will be able to now purchase all fuel inventories and you simply run out. Therefore by capping prices you cause inventory outages.
Now, we can’t simply run out because People will go apeshit. So how do you hide it? Simple. Lock it all down under covid ;) it immediately kills demand, inventories to replenish, prevents civil unrest, allows the next inflationary phase of stimmy money and debasement of currency to further crush demand.
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US is talking about price fixing fuel so I’ll outline for anyone why this doesn’t work and what is likely to now happen.
Now, we can’t simply run out because People will go apeshit. So how do you hide it? Simple. Lock it all down under covid ;) it immediately kills demand, inventories to replenish, prevents civil unrest, allows the next inflationary phase of stimmy money and debasement of currency to further crush demand.
They could potentially price fix fuel/energy by increasing the taxes on oil/energy companies who are recording crazy profits right now. I don't know if that's being done, but it has been discussed various places.
End of year lockdown though feels like a near certainty.
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They could potentially price fix fuel/energy by increasing the taxes on oil/energy companies who are recording crazy profits right now. I don't know if that's being done, but it has been discussed various places.
End of year lockdown though feels like a near certainty.
Perhaps but companies just pass on the additional tax to consumers. The irony of which higher prices reduce demand and put downward pressure on prices. So taxing them might kind of do that but it has flow on effects into GDP.
Speaking of GDP, super weird messaging getting around on media. US had a 1.4% contraction in Q1 and we are definitely on the road for a second contraction in Q2 meaning we are in a recession. I had this in my strategy and also stimmy bux in Q4 which so far is matching up so I have no need to adjust my thinking just yet.
So why oh why is there all this talk about a 2023 recession when we are 1 1/2 months away from a recession?
It’s all very odd. Hence I’m waiting for some catalyst to fuck everything up now and ‘black swan’ it for us because the timing feels right.
The food price pressures still haven’t hit us yet but will by Q4 so you want to be in QE stimmy bux mode when it hits rather than tightening and making everything worse. I believe inflation is the economic weapon being deployed vs China hence I am always looking on how we can get back to increasing the money supply as fast as possible.
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So where are we?
Right now the sharemarket has not sold off and demand has not backed off enough.
ISM data for June showed US order going up. Means people are still being spastics and buying shit.
So what do we look for? Well Biden gave the Fed the green light to massacre the sharemarket so let’s see what the Fed does. Perhaps we see 0.75% rate hikes in June and July now?
Make no mistake the rule is deflationary event before inflationary policy/outcome. Rate hikes go until unemployment breaks or something else breaks. FWIW prison island RBA raised 0.5% today and our CPI is almost half that of the US. So I’d be watching the 16th For the Fed to raise much more than 0.5% in order to cause capitulation.
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While the trend in energy is still clearly up, if you look at it within the context of the entire market, it just has been playing catch up. I recall reading a stock market book written in the early 1900’s in which the author spoke of a “Bell Cow,” an underperforming stock that comes running up at the end of a market rally.
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While the trend in energy is still clearly up, if you look at it within the context of the entire market, it just has been playing catch up. I recall reading a stock market book written in the early 1900’s in which the author spoke of a “Bell Cow,” an underperforming stock that comes running up at the end of a market rally.
Yes, I have been eyeing energy as it’s the one to rocket just prior to having a recession.
I thought 130 oil was the peak so I was expecting market corrections in Apr-May but we obviously aren’t ready for that. Oil at 120 now but it needs a Russian boycott to really hit supply. It’s looking more like a double top formation to my eyes rather than wanting to break above 130.
The jobs numbers were very positive so Fed gunna hike rates and not stop until we see something turn to shit. The Fed have been way to slow at raising rates and the risk now is they don’t break the economy before the elections. They really need it to break in June or latest July so the govt can begin putting out spending policies ahead of voting.
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Strong trending markets typically have a correction that is very quick as to not give traders a chance to get in right. Oil corrected then churned for a while before making another top.
If I had to bet, I’d say this double top breakout fails.
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US CPI up to 8.6% again.
Fucking lights out now. Forget any talk about bear market rallies, sharemarket will end up nuking regardless of what people say or think.
Fed will hike, hike and hike now.
On the crypto front, word is Celsius is going to go under and rug pull. Looking for entry in the coming weeks.
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Equities nuked on the high CPI print 4 days after this post. Market believes 0.75% will happen this week, let’s see.
Meanwhile on prison island we have been advised to expect power outages on the eastern seaboard on specific days and times. The reason: it’s cold……
See my OP. This is outright economic war, they are turning off our access to power so we can’t even get the damn stuff despite affording it.
This will play out like this:
*Q3-Q4 food prices will spike like crazy and we experience shortages
*Energy costs spike and rolling power outages
*CPI begins to go down in Q4 despite people noticing prices for many things haven’t actually gotten lower —> I’ll explain if someone wants me to.
*interest rates go down in 2023 and stimmy flows causing an inflationary wave that fucks 98% of plebs.
In my strategy I had 2022 as the year of the shortage. I have 2023 as year of the price reset (aka price hike due to low supply so businesses are forced to price higher in order to survive).
Buy your wants now in this coming 6mths as it might be your last opportunity. I am purchasing a new ride on lawn mower this week for 5.3k. I expect this to cost over 10k in 2023 once repriced. People here are waiting up to a year for one.
Shortages can be easily resolved by repricing correctly….. you’ll see this in 2023 and you’ll be happy…. No wait, you’ll be wrecked 👀