Getbig.com: American Bodybuilding, Fitness and Figure

Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Mayday on March 05, 2023, 07:24:55 PM

Title: Your rate rise timeline
Post by: Mayday on March 05, 2023, 07:24:55 PM

For those interested, this is how I see the datasets:

Peak rates May 2023 around 5.33%

First cut best case November 2023

Rate cuts end approx November 2024


Property will be slightly higher in 2025 than the peak in 2022 and people will have emotional meltdowns over it.

Title: Re: Your rate rise timeline
Post by: ThisisOverload on March 05, 2023, 07:36:36 PM

Thanks, most of my clients are builders.

Was curious to see when this hits bottom.

Many are saying the bottom is 12-18 months away for home sales.

Title: Re: Your rate rise timeline
Post by: Mayday on March 05, 2023, 08:04:21 PM

Quote from: ThisisOverload on March 05, 2023, 07:36:36 PM

Thanks, most of my clients are builders.

Was curious to see when this hits bottom.

Many are saying the bottom is 12-18 months away for home sales.

As violent as the upswing was, the downswing will be just as bad. Basically 1yr up = 1yr down.

The overtighten is there to create a hard downswing which allows for the following upswing.

The next upswing peak might be 2027-28 and rates will be higher.

For builders it’s keep away from fixed price contracts. Increases prices before you need to. Manage cashflow. Pay labour bonuses from job completions and factor that into prices. If you give bonuses, workers will want to work for you.