Overeem is bad ass for the first 2-3 minutes of every fight but if he dosen't finish it by then he's in trouble. Paul's hands get better with every fight, his takedown defense is pretty decent and so his ability to get back up. Overeem's guillotine is no secret anymore and niether is his shitty cardio. I see Paul weathering a storm of punches and flying knees and then KOing Overeem late first early second.