i agree completely about upgrading our workforce - i just think it needs to be a gradual process, controlled by govt safeguards to ensure the work force has the time and available schooling to catch up.
the short term win comes for the GDP - bottom line grows. the long term loss comes from those 10,000 workers who are now scrambling to find an income to feed their .49 wife and 2.3 kids.
the longer term win can come if the unemployed get educated - but since their job loss is often unpredictable (and many can't take 2 years to relearn a marketable skill) most will take something below their performance capacity just to keep the lights on.
Under the current system, Microsoft, Ford, Coke, and 50 other top American companies could wake up Tuesday morning and decide to move overseas. We could have a million American out of work instantly. Yes, the GDP would rise, as new billions would roll in. But those million Americans all rushing back to trade school and community college would put a crippling hurt on student loans, medium level PT jobs, and a hundred other ripplers.
So I'm all for it - but slow and regulated.
If you continually upgrade the workforce, these big layoffs aren't that big of a deal.
It's if a whole nation realises that they have tens of thousands of people working the car industry, or other industries, without higher education, then is the time to wake up and smell the coffee, so to speak.
That's when a nation is bound to go through a rough translation period.
I agree with you that as few people as possible should be made to suffer.
But my reason is purely utiliary. Don't expect any humanity from me in this case.
It's more effective to keep people working - less crime, less poverty, less everything of problems, except job related accidents
.
The risk of getting Democrats in power, is that they tend to be protectionists, ie protect American jobs and industries, which allows ineffective American businesses to survive too long.
Perhaps the Democrats have changed their policies, Pelosi claims they have. But look for the Democrats of Detroit and the surrounding area to push for protection of American jobs.
Right now is when USA needs to get a much higher percentage of the youth into college.
Or the big tech companies, such as Microsoft and Apple, will start to outsource even the high-tech jobs. And it won't be due to lower costs, but due to a better educated population.
I believe that in ten years, the most important outsourcing will not be about lower salaries, but about finding the best place in regards to R&D and such. Companies will cluster around Universities and alike, where research is made.
Low cost outsourcing will be secondary.
-Hedge