Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee

[Dos Equis]

Could Jim Webb give Hillary Clinton a run for her money in 2016?
By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
Published November 24, 2014
FoxNews.com

WASHINGTON –  Does Jim Webb have what it takes to give Hillary Clinton a run for her money?

Webb thinks he does, and he fired his first salvo against her last week, announcing in a video on  new campaign website that he had formed an exploratory committee as the first step in a possible 2016 run for the White House.

Without mentioning Clinton by name, the former Democratic senator from Virginia stated bluntly that government is “paralyzed” and that he wants to help — not as a “career politician,” but as a public servant — to “re-establish a transparent, functioning governmental system in our country.”

“In my view the solutions are not simply political, but those of leadership,” Webb said. “I learned long ago on the battlefields of Vietnam that in a crisis, there is no substitute for clear-eyed leadership.”

“Obviously he is an incredible long shot,” said Terry Madonna, who directs the Franklin and Marshall College Poll in Pennsylvania. “But as sort of a moderate, more so a centrist, he will obviously have an appeal within the Democratic Party.”

Plus, Madonna said, “There are apparently some Democrats who are not willing to cede the nomination to [Clinton]. Conceivably she could have a real battle on her hands for the nomination by people who are saying, no, you are not just rolling away the nomination, it’s not necessarily yours.”

A Marine Corps veteran, Webb, 68, earned two Purple Hearts, the Navy Cross, a Silver Star and two Bronze Stars in Vietnam. He is considered a blunt, independent-minded Democrat who is conservative on issues like gun rights, immigration and the military. But he is cautious on the use of military force overseas and he wields more of a progressive — if not populist — message on prison reform, income equality and reducing poverty.

He received a law degree at Georgetown University after Vietnam and authored several critically acclaimed war novels before serving as secretary of the Navy under President Ronald Reagan in 1987-88, a position he resigned from in protest of budget cuts. He was elected to the U.S. Senate as a Democrat in 2006, unseating Republican George Allen by less than 1 percent of the vote.

“As a veteran and now somewhat of a ‘blue dog’ Democrat, he has the street cred and experience to bring swing voters to the table, especially in the conservative South,” said Donna Lorraine Barlett, a retired Army judge advocate general who lives in Georgia.

Webb was at the forefront in passing the sweeping reform of the GI Bill in 2008, and veterans consider him a champion of their issues. Coming from a “family of citizen soldiers,” he spoke strongly against the Iraq War before it was fashionable to do so — and while his own son was fighting with the Marines in Ramadi.

During a White House party for freshmen senators shortly after his election, Web refused to have his picture taken with President George W. Bush, who sought him out to ask, “How’s your boy, Jim?”

“I’d like to get them out of Iraq,” Webb said.

Bush would not be deterred. “That’s not what I asked you — How’s your boy?”

Webb snapped back: “Mr. President, that’s between me and my boy.”

He and Bush have since buried the hatchet, but that vignette pretty much encapsulates the “what you see is what you get” persona that Webb’s supporters find so appealing.

“He’s fearless, he doesn’t cover it up or pretend to be one way or another,” said Larry Korb, senior national security fellow at the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress.

During an interview with the American Enterprise Institute in 1997, Webb said of President Bill Clinton: “I cannot conjure up an ounce of respect for Bill Clinton when it comes to the military. Every time I see him salute a Marine, it infuriates me. I don’t think Bill Clinton cares one iota about what happens in a military unit.”

But there apparently were no hard feelings, because Clinton actively supported Webb in 2006.

“I see him as a basic, old-fashioned conservative in the mold of Eisenhower and Reagan who is able to talk and act across the aisle,” said Phil Giraldi, a Vietnam veteran and libertarian who volunteered on Webb’s Senate campaign in Virginia.

Korb, who worked with Webb in the Reagan Pentagon, said Webb would insulate Democrats against the inevitable “soft on defense” attacks. “It would be so good to get a real veteran in the White House,” he added. “You don’t have to go to war to understand it, but it doesn’t hurt.”

During his 2006 Senate campaign, Webb was pummeled with attacks over the risqué and taboo subject matter covered in his novels and his position against having women in combat roles in the military. These issues are likely to resurface with any run for president, observers say.

And where Webb’s strength is in his toughness, his rigid exterior has often been mistaken for aloofness and a lack of charisma — “the antithesis of a rock star,” said one Democratic political consultant who asked not to be identified.   

But Webb’s greatest challenge may be going up against Clinton’s legendary political network.

“Where is [Webb’s] organization? Madonna said. “When you start these things in Iowa, it is large, it’s grueling, it’s expensive — you need a campaign organization.

“At this point in time, the money she has amassed, the infrastructure, the support … you would have to say she is the odds-on favorite. But don’t count Jim Webb out. He’s been down before.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/11/24/could-senator-jim-webb-give-hillary-run-for-her-money-in-2016/

[Dos Equis]

 

Ex-Clinton Pollster Schoen Doubts Hillary Can Win Presidency
Sunday, 30 Nov 2014
By Greg Richter

Doug Schoen, former pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton, isn't certain Hillary Clinton could win the presidency in 2016.

Appearing Sunday on "The Cats Roundtable" on AM 970 in New York, Schoen told host John Catsimatidis he doesn't think his former boss has the "new car smell" that President Barack Obama last week said was needed for a Democratic candidate.

He also said 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney would be a "formidable opponent" to Clinton.

"We’re in a real barn burner," Schoen said. "The race hasn’t even begun, and it’s tied ostensibly between Hillary and Mitt Romney."

Schoen pointed to a Nov. 26 Quinnipiac Poll showing Romney ahead of Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent in a possible 2016 race. Former GOP Florida Gov. Jeb isn't far behind Clinton in the poll, which showed support for Bush at 41 percent and Hillary at 46 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

"We’re in a statistical tie here. It’s anyone’s to be won," Schoen said.

Still, he believes Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner by double digits, will seek the office.

"The real question is how does she separate herself from Obama, yet not get so far away from him that … she doesn’t alienate his base constituents?" Schoen said.

Clinton needs to establish her own identity, but will find that difficult since her last four years of public service were spent heading up Obama's State Department, he said.

Romney has indicated publicly he has no plans to run again, though it is rumored he would do so if Jeb Bush decide against a 2016 bid.

If Romney runs he "would be a formidable opponent to Hillary," Schoen said.

"I think much of what Mitt said in the last campaign has been validated," he said. "And I think he’s been much better on the stump than he was four years ago."

Catsimatidis noted that Romney has been vetted already and anything that's going to be out on him was brought out in 2012.

Schoen doubts Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will run, despite calls from the far left of her party.

"I think she’s a strong candidate, if she runs. But there’s a big if," Schoen said. "The Democratic political base wants (her) kind of populism."

http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/catsimatidis-schoen-hillary-clinton/2014/11/30/id/610156/#ixzz3KfEvbM49

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Romney, Clinton top 2016 field
By Sara Fischer, CNN
Tue December 2, 2014

Washington (CNN) -- Mitt Romney may say he's not planning to make a third run for the White House, but according to a new CNN/ORC International poll, Republican voters aren't ready to give up on the idea just yet.

While there is no clear frontrunner for the Republican ticket in 2016, most likely GOP voters say they would choose the former Massachusetts governor for the nomination, among 16 potential contenders.

According to the survey, 20 percent of voters say Romney would be their first choice for the nominee, with retired neurosurgeon and conservative activist Ben Carson coming in second with 10 percent of the vote.

Other big name contenders, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, round out the top four, garnering 9 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee takes fifth place with 7 percent of the vote.

In what could be a telling 2016 indicator, when Romney is removed from the competitive set, the first place spot goes to Bush, who has had some family members publicly pressure him to throw his hat in the ring for months.

But even though Bush leads the pack among the hypothetical field of 15, he only edges Carson in second place by 3 percentage points, and Huckabee in third by just 4 points.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton unsurprisingly receives an overwhelming majority of support, with 65 percent of left-leaning Americans saying she would be their choice for the 2016 nomination. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a progressive favorite, and Vice President Joe Biden, fall way behind to take second and third place -- with 9 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

But when Clinton is removed from the vote selection, Biden pulls more support among voters, who say they would prefer him as their 2016 Democratic nominee with 41 percent, versus 20 percent for Warren.

The poll surveyed 1,045 Americans, including 510 Republicans and right-leaning independents and 457 Democrats and left-leaning independents. The survey was conducted by telephone from Nov. 21-23.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/02/politics/poll-hillary-clinton-mitt-romney-2016/index.html?hpt=po_c1

[Dos Equis]

Bloomberg Poll: Clinton Tops 2016 GOP Contenders on Leadership
Monday, 08 Dec 2014

Former first lady, senator, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would enter the presidential race with positive views of her past experience and personal traits, making her a formidable contender against lesser-known Republican rivals.

Greater numbers of Americans view her as a strong leader, who has a better vision for the future, shares their values, and empathizes with their concerns, according to a new Bloomberg Politics Poll. Among the Republicans tested against her, former Republican nominee Mitt Romney has the best name recognition and strengths to challenge her standing as this early stage in the 2016 race. Romney, however, has repeatedly said he won't campaign for the presidency for a third time.

"Wouldn’t you want to hire someone for a job when they actually have some experience?”
Barbara Rishaw

With poll participants saying she is better than her potential Republican opponents on these four qualities, including the traditionally Republican strength of leadership, Clinton is positioned quite differently than President Barack Obama was during his re-election bid. In 2012, Romney won by 13 percentage points among voters who said the quality that mattered most in deciding how they voted for president was a candidate who "shares your values," by 23 points among those looking for a "strong leader," and by nine percentage points among those who prioritized a candidate with a "vision for the future," according to the election's exit polls with voters that were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of national media outlets. For Obama, a 63-percentage-point lead among voters who most valued a candidate who "cares about people like me" was a key attribute that helped propel him to victory.

“Her image and reputation with voters has been defined, and in some ways redefined, by her service as Secretary of State, where voters saw someone who was a strong leader in representing our country,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic polling expert who worked for Clinton’s unsuccessful primary campaign against Obama. “If she runs, she comes to this election in much better shape then she did in the 2008."

While Clinton lacks Obama’s overwhelming empathy advantage, she's better positioned two years before the election in every other attribute. When respondents were asked which potential candidate did a better job on each of four qualities, she runs seven to 20 points ahead on leadership when pitted against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and Romney. Though Clinton has yet to provide a detailed account of how she'd guide the nation as president, Americans think she has more of a vision for the future than any in the Republican field. When measured on that attribute, she leads Romney by 6 points, Paul by 10 points, Bush by 15 points, Christie by 17 points, and Cruz by 21 points.

A different story emerges when the potential presidential match-ups are tested among what likely voters say they value most. Clinton lags behind all the Republicans among likely voters who named “sharing your values” as their top quality in selecting a candidate. One reason for the shift is that a plurality–41 percent—of Republicans identified "shared values" as their most important trait. Maryanna Preston, a Florida clinical psychologist who favors Republican candidates, said she found Clinton untrustworthy. “I would not want her running this country,” she said. “She is a power-hungry woman wanting to be the first woman president of the United States. I think she’s dangerous.”

Still, in a general election showdown, Clinton wins against all five potential Republican candidates among likely voters, though she never breaks the 50 percent mark. Her margin is narrowest against Bush, Christie, and Romney, with a six-percentage-point lead. She beats Paul by eight points and Cruz by 13 points.

Clinton is far better known than most of her possible Republican challengers, with the exception of Romney. That familiarity, some Republicans argue, makes her appear to hold a more formidable position today. “She has 100 percent name ID. Among the potential candidates for 2016, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney are the only ones who even come close,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. According to the poll, just 6 percent of American say they're "not sure" whether they'd rank her favorably or not, compared with 13 percent who said the same of Romney. All of the other Republicans tested were not known well enough to be rated by about a third or more of the respondents. “I would have been stunned if any of the Republicans beat Clinton on any measure.”

More than half–52 percent–of Americans have a favorable view of Clinton, a drop from a high of 70 percent in December 2012, less than two months before she left her post as Secretary of State and re-entered the national, partisan political dialogue. That diplomatic background, considered by some Republicans to be a point of weakness, is seen as beneficial by a majority of Americans. More than two out of three view her tenure as Secretary of State, marriage to former President Bill Clinton, and, perhaps as an indication that Americans want an experienced insider in the next president, her service in Washington, as advantageous to Clinton. About six in ten say the same about her previous presidential run and work in the Obama administration. "People get all critical about, ‘oh, so and so‘s a career politician',” said Barbara Rishaw, a deli clerk and self-identified “disillusioned independent” in Nashville, Tenn. “On the other hand, wouldn’t you want to hire someone for a job when they actually have some experience?”

One show of weakness for Clinton: 52 percent viewed her ties to Wall Street as a positive—a ranking that could provide an opening to a populist primary challenger or an avenue for attacks by Republicans.

The poll of 1,001 U.S. adults was conducted Dec. 3-5 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Results based on the 753 likely voters in the 2016 election have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/clinton-poll-2016-leadership/2014/12/08/id/611670/#ixzz3LKyb8ZoC

[Dos Equis]

Surprising.

Survey: Hillary Clinton top 2016 pick for millionaires
By Dan Merica, CNN
Wed December 10, 2014

According to a CNBC survey, Hillary Clinton -- with 31% support -- would be the top choice for people with "investable assets of $1 million or more" if the 2016 election were held today.

Clinton is followed by former Republican Gov. Jeb Bush with 18%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 14% and Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders with 11%.

In the poll, CNBC notes that "people with investable assets of $1 million or more" make up the top 8% of American households and their poll was "evenly split between Democrats, Republicans and Independents."

Among Democrats, Clinton's lead is massive, with 72% of the 500 people polled stating they support the former first lady. Bush, likewise, is the top choice for Republican millionaires with 36% support.

Despite the fact that millionaire supporters have outsized influence because of campaign contributions and donations to super PACS, this distinction could be one Clinton doesn't want.

Since she last ran 0for president, the Democratic Party has become more populist and in order to win in 2016, many political experts see her needed to reconnect with middle and working class voters. The party has also been overtaken by skepticism of Wall Street and, in some cases, wealth, meaning having the backing of a majority of millionaires may not be a badge of honor in 2016.

What's more, the support of more millionaires has not always been indicative of electoral success. In 2008 and 2012, Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney had support of most millionaires in their respective elections. Both went on to lose to President Barack Obama, who had the support of most people with $30 million or more.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/10/politics/hillary-clinton-millionaires/index.html?hpt=po_c2

[Dos Equis]

9 Under-the-Radar Politicians Who'll Dominate News in 2015 — Including the 'Female Obama'
By Gregory Krieg  December 15, 2014

As the rest of the world waits for Hillary Clinton's big announcement (spoiler alert: she's running) there will be other serious political fights unfolding in 2015. Many will revolve around who might oppose the former first lady's inevitable presidential campaign, while others will be centered on important, immediate issues like economic inequality and marijuana policy.

There is no separating the issues from the people who will be leading the debate. In the coming year, new faces are set to emerge on the national stage. And at least one is primed to return to old glory.

If you want to get a jump on what promises to be a dramatic and important year in American politics, get to know this formidable gang of nine:

1. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R)


Source: AP
The dark horse: Mike Pence, the Hoosier State's Republican governor, has deep ties to the mega-donor Koch brothers, which means he'll be able to take the necessary time building up his inevitable presidential campaign. (Candidates with fewer backers need lots of early success to build fundraising momentum.) That he's spent these past two years working so nearby Iowa, home to those all-important first presidential caucuses, doesn't hurt either. Pence also enjoys the unique ability to sell himself as a "Washington outsider" — that priceless political talking point — while also being deeply connected to the Beltway, having spent a decade there as a congressman from 2003 to 2012.

What they're saying: "He is an evangelical Midwestern conservative who has the compelling family story to tell of his grandfather being an Irish immigrant who drove a bus in Chicago," John Dunagan, a former George W. Bush campaign aide told the Daily Caller. Mix that in with a spotless record of anti-union, pro-tax cut policy initiatives and you have the candidate Republicans hoped Ricky Perry would be in 2012.

2. California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D)


Source: Getty Images
California's next senator? Kamala Harris was elected as California's first-ever black female attorney general in 2010, and she will begin her second term as the highest-ranking law enforcement official in the country's biggest state this January. But pundits are already speculating about Harris' next move. If someone like Vice President Joe Biden or former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley can upset Hillary Clinton and grab the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, expect to see Harris on the shortlist for vice president.

Barring that, she's expected to turn her attention to the Senate. Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is looking more and more likely to retire at the end of her current term, meaning California is probably going to need a new senator in 2016. There's also going to be a governor's race in 2018. Harris will be a major player in one if not both of those races, and she'll need to lay the groundwork in 2015.

Oh, and she's open to to broader efforts to legalize marijuana. 

What they're saying: "She very well could become the 'female Barack Obama' of liberal dreams," according to Politico.

3. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D)


Source: AP
Not ready for Clinton: Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley doesn't have the following of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) or the progressive cred of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), but he is considered the most realistic threat to Hillary Clinton's claim to the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. The former Baltimore mayor showed his hand recently, calling on the Justice Department to appoint a special prosecutor to further investigate the individuals behind the CIA torture program. He knows it won't ever happen, but the words alone will gain him some traction with more liberal Democrats.

Pundits say that Maryland Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown's loss in a November race to succeed O'Malley, despite the governor's support, was a sign of weakness. But O'Malley remains a popular figure in the state and a crafty politician. (Fans of the HBO seriesThe Wire should know that councilman-turned-mayor Tommy Carcetti was conceived with O'Malley in mind.)

What they're saying: "I think right now O'Malley is running to become the other guy, with the hope that the field will quickly narrow to two candidates. ... Of all the people out there [who could run against Clinton in the primary], he's the one I would be most worried about," longtime Democratic strategist Joe Trippi told the Washington Post in September.

4. New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (R)


Source: AP
Future VP? The Washington press corps doesn't normally spend too much time on New Mexico politics. But that is going to change in 2015. While the usual suspects duke it out for the GOP presidential nomination, twice-elected Gov. Susana Martinez will be waiting just offstage, one of the heavy favorites to join the eventual nominee on the general election ballot.

Assuming the party goes with a white male candidate, Martinez will be zeroed in on as the answer to Democrats' strong standing with women and Latinos. (She criticized President Obama's executive actions to stop deportation of people living in the U.S. without permission, but has also advocated for some kind of comprehensive reform.)

Martinez and her husband Chuck are Republican converts — they used to be Democrats. She switched parties in 1996 before running for district attorney.

What they're saying: "She looks great on paper, and that's what the national operatives see," influential New Mexico journalist Joe Monahan told Real Clear Politics. "I think really the Achilles' heel here that she has to overcome is that perception of being the Sarah Palin-type figure. The national political community is not going to risk that again."

5. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas)


Source: AP
Mission impossible: The world's second most famous pair of Castro brothers are taking the capital by storm. Joaquin Castro is a Democratic congressman from Texas' 20th district, while his identical twin brother Julian left his post as mayor of San Antonio to become join President Obama's cabinet as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

But it is the one-minute-younger Joaquin who figures to have a very interesting 2015. Politico reports that he is one of two potential candidates to lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Never heard of it? Just know this: If he gets the job, his charge will be to return Democrats to a House majority following three elections in which they have lost an incredible 69 seats.

Though he could wait until 2018 to challenge Texas Gov.-elect Greg Abbott, there is a growing belief that Castro is eyeing a 2016 showdown with tea party leader and likely presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R).

What they're saying: "He is, separate from his brother, an astute, emergent leader in his hometown, within his district, across the state of Texas, and you only need to look at the Sunday news programs to understand that he's got a voice that's listened to nationally," Henry R. Munoz Jr., family friend and national finance chair of the Democratic National Committee, told the Washington Post in August.

6. Sen.-elect Joni Ernst (R-Iowa)

Source: YouTube
Ready to make D.C. squeal: "I'm Joni Ernst. I grew up castrating hogs on an Iowa farm."

And with that, the soon-to-be senator from the Hawkeye State made a memorable entry on to the national stage. The Iraq War veteran will be the first female senator from Iowa and likely its most conservative in decades. Expect to see her alongside Sens. Cruz and Mike Lee (R-Utah), ruthlessly fighting against gun control legislation and anything the United Nations might agree on.

But contrary to what some critics might suggest, Ernst is no Sarah Palin. She is a smart politician whose "mother, soldier, leader" mantra during the campaign gives you an idea of how she'll allocate her power. Expect her to be, for better or worse, a strong voice on national security policy for years to come.

What they're saying: "I'd like to like her," an Iowa Democrat told Politico during the campaign. "She's personable; farmer's [daughter], in the National Guard. I think that carries a lot of weight. A lot of people admire the combination she's got."

7. Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R)


Source: AP
Wall Street's man in Ohio: Recently reelected Ohio Gov. John Kasich has quietly gone about the business of rebuilding the state economy, which was in shambles when he arrived on the job in 2010. Kasich is steeped in corporate America, having worked as a managing director at the criminally mismanaged financial house Lehman Brothers from 2001 to 2008, but he's no ideologue. He accepted the Medicaid expansion provision (which meant more federal money to insure the poor and elderly) from Obamacare when most Republican governors would not, though he still pays lip service to the idea of repealing other parts of the law.

Kasich will have a hard time not getting caught between bigger-money establishment candidates and tea party firebrands if he decides to enter the 2016 fray, but you can bet he'll be a big part of the discussion.

What they're saying: "I know he wants to have a legacy that shows he provides for citizens who have difficult circumstances, and more importantly for young people who need the opportunity to work," Ohio House Speaker Bill Batchelder (R) told Politico in October.

8. Dr. Ben Carson


Source: AP
The chosen one: Dr. Ben Carson is not going to be elected president in 2016. But he will certainly have a big influence in the Republican nomination contest, scheduled to formally begin in late summer 2015. Like him or not, the strict conservative pediatric neurosurgeon-turned-politician is a really compelling character. In October 2013, he called Obamacare "the worst thing that has happened to this country since slavery." In June, he had to clarify with a reporter that he did not think it was "worse than 9/11."

Consider this Nov. 20 exchange with an interviewer from the Christian Broadcasting Network:

David Brody: How is that conversation going with God about this potential presidential run? Has He grabbed you by the collar yet? I read an article about that.

Ben Carson: I feel fingers. But it's mostly me. I have to be sure and it's part of my personality that says always look before you leap, but don't leap before you have to.

Brody: I do cover the presidential campaign trail. May I potentially see you there soon?

Carson: I think there is a good chance you might.

The man feels the "fingers" of God pushing him toward the campaign trail. "Draft Ben Carson," indeed!

What they're saying: "If Herman Cain could poll 40% of the back vote, running against a black candidate, just imagine what percent of the black vote Dr. Carson would receive running against Hillary Clinton of any other far-left white Democrat!" said John Philip Sousa, the great musician's namesake, on Carson's website.

9. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)


Source: AP
Got her groove back: Laugh if you want, but the 27-year congressional veteran and former speaker of the House is looking primed for a serious revival in 2015. After spending the first six years of the Obama presidency working doggedly and at great political cost (see what happened to her majority after it passed Obamacare), Pelosi publicly broke with the White House over a Wall Street giveaway when it came time to hammer out a $1.1 trillion bill to fund the government.

The minority leader and her liberal allies, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), ultimately lost that battle, but they made a significant point: Republicans and a White House apparently willing to compromise on economic issues are going to have a smart, seasoned politician tearing at their pant legs for the next two years.

What they're saying: "What Pelosi's revolt [on the spending bill] made clear is that while there will be more Republicans in the House and Senate come January, nothing can get done (or at least nothing can get done easily) without some portion of liberal Democrats on board," the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza wrote on Dec. 11.  "This was a warning to the White House and Senate Democrats not to cut Pelosi out or take her (or her liberal Democratic allies) for granted going forward."

Up next: Going forward, we will keep our eyes, ears and computer browsers open; in a year like this, with both major political parties looking for a new standard bearer, you never know who's going to pop up and change the game. What's not in doubt: It's going to be a lot of fun to watch.

http://mic.com/articles/106206/9-under-the-radar-politicians-who-will-make-waves-in-2015

[Dos Equis]

Hillary Clinton Support Dips In New Poll
The Huffington Post    |  By   Alana Horowitz
Posted: 12/21/2014

NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 16:  Event honoree Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks on stage during the 2014 Robert F. Kennedy Ripple Of Hope Awards at the New York Hilton on December 16, 2014 in New York City.  (Photo by Mike Pont/FilmMagic)
Hillary Clinton's lead over potential 2016 Democratic rivals has shrunk considerably, a new poll finds.

According to the poll, from ABC News and the Washington Post, 61% of likely Democratic voters say they would vote for Clinton. This is down from last month's lead of 63%, and January's 73%. This latest poll was conducted earlier this month and released on Sunday.

Vice President Joe Biden is a distant second with 14% of the potential vote.

Mass. Senator Elizabeth Warren comes in third at 13%. The same survey last month found that she was only commanding 11% of the vote. In January, that number was only 9%. Warren has repeatedly denied that she is seeking a bid for president.

To read the full results of the poll, click here.

Meanwhile, 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney is leading the Republican pack. Several recent polls surveying the 2016 Republican landscape have found Romney ahead by a slight margin over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who announced earlier this week that he is considering a run for president, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/21/hillary-clinton-2016_n_6362276.html

[Dos Equis]

Surely Democrats can do better than this?

Sanders to decide on 2016 run in March
Published December 26, 2014
Associated Press
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Dec. 16, 2014: Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks during a town hall meeting in Ames, Iowa. (AP)

BURLINGTON, Vt. –  Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders says he'll decide by March whether to launch a 2016 presidential campaign and, if so, whether he'll seek the Democratic nomination. Either way, Sanders says he wouldn't run just to nudge the debate to the left.

"I don't want to do it unless I can do it well," he told The Associated Press. "I don't want to do it unless we can win this thing."

Sanders, a socialist, said he grew up "solidly lower middle class" in a Jewish family in Brooklyn — his father, an immigrant from Poland, sold paint for a living —and his views about the distribution of wealth were formed early.

"A lack of money in my family was a very significant aspect of my growing up ... kids in my class would have new jackets, new coats, and I would get hand-me-downs," Sanders said.

After the University of Chicago, Sanders came to Vermont in the 1960s as part of the counterculture, back-to-the-land movement that turned the state from solid Yankee Republican into one of the bluest in the country.

He won his first election — for Burlington mayor — by 10 percentage points, and since then has carried a consistent message thought eight terms in the House and now, his second term in the Senate: The rich have too much, the poor and working class not enough.

Sanders said the issues about which he's been railing for all these years are only becoming more dire. The wealth gap has grown, and the middle class, he says, is "collapsing."

"You have one family, the Walton family of Walmart, owning more wealth than the bottom 40 percent of the American people," he said. "We have 95 percent of all new income going to the top 1 percent. You have millions of families unable to afford to send their kids to college. People are desperately worried about whether or not they are going to retire with dignity."

Sanders has a 12-step plan that he says will restore the economy and especially the middle class, most of them dependent on higher taxes on the rich and corporations. Among the proposals: A $1 trillion infrastructure building program that would "create 13 million decent-paying jobs"; more worker-friendly international trade deals and legislation to strengthen unions; and transforming the U.S. energy system "away from fossil fuels and into energy efficiency and sustainable energy."

He says he'll make a "gut decision" about running for the presidency — and, perhaps, challenging Democratic favorite Hillary Rodham Clinton.

He would be 75 in 2016, but "my health is good," he said, knocking on a wooden conference room table. He said he couldn't remember the last time he'd called in sick to work.

Sanders said he is weighing whether to run as an independent, as he has done in Vermont, or as a Democrat. He has been critical of both major parties over the years, though he has aligned with liberal Democrats on many issues.

Tad Devine, a longtime consultant to Democratic presidential candidates, agreed that 2016 might present an opening to Sanders, a year in which his message could resonate. Fewer people feel they can afford the American Dream of sending kids to college and looking forward to a secure retirement, Devine said.

"Even the majority of Republicans believe that the deck is stacked against the people in this country," Devine said. "That's exactly what Bernie has been talking about for a long time." Devine said he plans to work for Sanders if the Vermont senator enters the race.

Devine said Sanders also could run on a solid legislative record in a Congress that hasn't been known for getting much done recently. As chairman of the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee, Sanders got passed this year a $5 billion package to fix a troubled VA health system. His liberal-left record includes voting against the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996 and the anti-terrorism USA Patriot Act in 2001, both while he was in the House.

Clinton would pose a key challenge for Sanders.

"I think the question is, is he a step too far for the mainstream of the Democratic Party? He is a socialist," said Kathy Sullivan, a member of the Democratic National Committee and a Clinton supporter. "I don't think you'll find the socialist wing of the Democratic Party is that big, contrary to what Republicans might think."

Peter Burling, a former New Hampshire state senator, longtime Democratic Party leader and a Clinton supporter, said Sanders might have an advantage over her in the amount of passion he can deliver.

"I don't think she demonstrated it in the race against (Barack) Obama in 2008," Burling said. Sanders would contrast with Clinton because "he can speak with unfettered passion," Burling said.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/12/26/sanders-to-decide-on-2016-run-in-march/?intcmp=latestnews

[Dos Equis]

Democrats Optimistic On 2016 Presidential Chances
 AP By BILL BARROW
Posted: 12/26/2014


ATLANTA (AP) — Republicans crowed in 2004 that freshly re-elected President George W. Bush had established a "permanent governing majority" for the GOP. Eight years later, Democrats were touting the enduring power of the "Obama coalition" to keep their party in the White House.

But Democrats couldn't sustain that coalition for this year's midterm elections, leading to Republican gains in Congress, governorships and state legislatures nationwide.

"The notion of demographics as destiny is overblown," said Republican pollster and media strategist Wes Anderson. "Just like (Bush aide Karl) Rove was wrong with that 'permanent majority' talk, Democrats have to remember that the pendulum is always swinging."

So how will it swing in 2016? Is the path to 270 electoral votes so fixed that one side just can't win? Will President Barack Obama's limited popularity be a burden for the Democratic nominee in the next race for the White House? Or will an increasingly diverse electorate pick a Democrat for a third consecutive presidential election for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman won five straight elections from 1932 to 1948?

Despite Democrats' midterm shellacking and talk of a "depressed" liberal base, many in the party still like their starting position for 2016. Ruy Teixiera, a Democratic demographer, points to a group of states worth 242 electoral votes that the Democratic presidential nominee has won in every election since 1992. Hold them all, and the party is just 28 votes shy of the majority needed to win the White House next time.

Obama twice compiled at least 332 electoral votes by adding wins in almost every competitive state. He posted double-digit wins among women, huge margins among voters younger than 30 and historically high marks among blacks and Latinos.

As non-white voters continue to grow as a share of the electorate, a Democratic nominee who roughly holds onto Obama's 2012 level of support across all demographic groups would win the national popular vote by about 6 percentage points and coast to victory in the Electoral College, Teixeira estimates.

"Could a Republican win? Sure," Teixeira said. "But they have to have a lot of different things happen."

What if the GOP is able to continue its gains among non-white voters? Obama, after all, lost ground in 2012 among most demographic measures, compared to his 2008 performance. Those slides helped make him the first president since World War II to win re-election with a lower popular vote total than he got in his initial victory.

A GOP nominee such as the Spanish-speaking Jeb Bush, former Florida governor, could make a difference. He is a proponent of comprehensive immigration reform who has the potential to capture significantly more than the 27 percent of the Latino vote that Mitt Romney claimed in 2012. Meanwhile, Republicans hope African-Americans make up a smaller share of the electorate with Obama no longer atop the ballot.

"We're not talking about winning those groups, but these elections are fought on the margins, so improvements here and there can make a difference," Anderson said.

Republicans acknowledge that demographic shifts make it more difficult than in years past for the GOP nominee to depend mostly on white voters, who cast 87 percent of presidential ballots in 1992 and just 72 percent in 2012.

At the same time, Democrats have watched white voters, particularly those without a college degree, move away from the party during Obama's presidency — and not just in the conservative South. Obama lost this group by about 26 points in 2012, according to exit polls and other analyses. By this November, his Gallup approval rating among the group stood at 27 percent.

Extending that trend into 2016 could push Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire into the GOP column. Whites also could tip Florida, Virginia and Colorado, although non-white voters in those states hold more influence than in the Midwest and Northeast. Those seven states, plus all those won by Romney in 2012, would give the GOP a winning total of 295 electoral votes.

It should be noted that the path to 270 requires any potential GOP president to win Florida, with its 29 electoral votes. And while it's mathematically possible for a Republican to win without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, no GOP nominee has ever done so, and Republican strategists widely acknowledge the state as essential.

Of course, further analysis of the raw numbers alone ignores the potential of the candidates themselves to shape the election — not to mention dramatic changes in the economy, national security events or other developments that fall outside the control of any candidate.

"Presidential elections don't take place in a vacuum," GOP strategist Anderson said. "It's an adversarial system in which their side has a face and our side has a face, and everything flows from that."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/26/democrats-2016-presidential-campaign_n_6381304.html

[Dos Equis]

Liberal groups slate pro-Warren rally in New Hampshire Saturday
By Dan Merica, CNN
January 13, 2015


Washington (CNN)Groups urging Sen. Elizabeth Warren to run for president in 2016 are kicking off their New Hampshire organizing efforts with a rally on Saturday in Manchester.

MoveOn.org and Democracy for America, two liberal groups urging the progressive senator to run, are dispatching grassroots organizers to the first-in-the-nation primary state this week with the goal of encouraging local volunteers, politicians and activists to help convince Warren she needs to run for president.

"Our folks on the ground are going to reach out to the really strong activist community that exists in New Hampshire," said Neil Sroka, Democracy for America's spokesman. "We want to show Elizabeth Warren that if she decided to get into the race, there is a strong grassroots army ready to do everything a candidate needs to run a competitive race in the Granite State."

Saturday will make the start of these efforts.

Leaders from Democracy for America, MoveOn.org and other progressive come together for their first meeting in New Hampshire, with the goal of charting next steps in convincing Warren to run. Those steps are likely to include opening offices across the state and dispatching more organizers in the coming months.

The "Run Warren Run" efforts, which launched late last year, have so far picked up over 200,000 supporters across the country. While they aren't alone -- groups like super PAC Ready for Warren have been organizing around a possible Warren run since early last year -- the coalition of MoveOn and DFA has been some of the most organized work around the senator.

That said, the efforts have so far not moved the Massachusetts senator to make a run at the presidency and, in some respects, Warren has moved further away from a run.

In an interview published by Fortune Magazine on Tuesday, Warren was asked by former FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair whether if she will run for president.

"No," the Massachusetts senator flatly said.

That is new, given the senator has repeatedly knocked down presidential speculation by simply saying, "I am not running for president." The denial is in present tense, meaning Warren wasn't running for president at this moment. When some reporters pressed her on this, Warren would just repeat, "I am not running for president."

If she does decide to run, though, she wouldn't be the first politician to change their mind on a presidential bid.

Warren outlined her liberal economic agenda earlier this month in a campaign-style speech that electrified liberal and labor organizers in the audience.

"For more than 30 years, too many politicians in Washington have made deliberate choices that favored those with money and power," she told the AFL-CIO audience. "And the consequence is that instead of an economy that works well for everyone, America now has an economy that works well for about 10 percent of the people."

Speeches like that, Sroka said, have made the liberal organizers more upbeat about their plans. Their view is that if more people saw Warren speak, they would be convinced to support her.

"We have watched very, very closely," the organizer said of Warren's speeches. "What you saw there was a senator and frankly a potential presidential candidate speaking out for million of Americans who are struggling to get by and laying out a popular progressive economic message for the country."

He concluded, "That is the kind of speech a presidential candidate might make."

http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/13/politics/warren-new-hampshire-groups/index.html

[andreisdaman]

I actually wish we could have an all-star field of candidates running in the Democratic primary....Hillary, Andrew Cuomo, Biden, Warren, Booker, and Pelosi.....

it looks like the Republicans will have their first team running....Jeb, Romney, Christie, Rand, and Ben Carson, ....I hope none of the crazies run, like Bachmann and Palin.....

[Dos Equis]

I actually wish we could have an all-star field of candidates running in the Democratic primary....Hillary, Andrew Cuomo, Biden, Warren, Booker, and Pelosi.....

it looks like the Republicans will have their first team running....Jeb, Romney, Christie, Rand, and Ben Carson, ....I hope none of the crazies run, like Bachmann and Palin.....

You would vote for Joe Biden?

[andreisdaman]

You would vote for Joe Biden?

I don't know..I would have to be convinced....but can you imagine all the entertaining gaffes???....

come to think of it, if he were the nominee I would vote for him over Palin if she were the nominee

[Dos Equis]

I don't know..I would have to be convinced....but can you imagine all the entertaining gaffes???....

come to think of it, if he were the nominee I would vote for him over Palin if she were the nominee

I can't imagine a scenario where I would vote for Biden.  Even Democrats repeatedly rejected him when he ran. 

[andreisdaman]

I can't imagine a scenario where I would vote for Biden.  Even Democrats repeatedly rejected him when he ran. 

In terms of qualifications, Biden would be the most qualified president ever...his resume is impressive....take away all the gaffes and he would be formidable....unfortunat ely he is his own worst enemy

[Dos Equis]

In terms of qualifications, Biden would be the most qualified president ever...his resume is impressive....take away all the gaffes and he would be formidable....unfortunat ely he is his own worst enemy

Biden the most qualified president ever??  Sorry but that is laugh out loud funny.     There is a reason why even Democrats rejected him more than once. 

I don't think he is smart enough to be president.  He doesn't have enough private sector experience.  Does he have military experience?  He lacks common sense.   I could go on, but I completely understand why he couldn't make it out of the Democrat primaries. 

[240 is Back]

Biden the most qualified president ever??

in terms of govt experience, biden would likely be the one with most.
he's been in senate or white house for 40 years.   I mean, he's spent more time sitting on Senate toilets than Rubio has spent in office, total. 

And he's not a stupid man.  He's just egotistical and obnoxious - immature and entitled.  Same way we admit Rachel maddow is smart, she's just fcking misguided and a rude prick.  Biden knows more about the law than probably any other dem in that 2016 race.  But since he's a douche, he will lose nomination.

40 years in high office.  Chairman of foreign relations. Dude's seen shit we cannot imagine, he's been privy to world-changing convo for decades while Rand was pooping yellow and playing in the sandbox ignoring his whiny dad telling him to pick up his toys. 

Shit on him all you want, I agree with most of it.  BUT he's a smart man, and he's very experienced in govt.  On a functional level, biden, like jeb, would do fine in office... the problem is, they're both shithead libs, and people that support them over the other candidates deserve a hot sauce bukkake. 

[andreisdaman]

in terms of govt experience, biden would likely be the one with most.
he's been in senate or white house for 40 years.   I mean, he's spent more time sitting on Senate toilets than Rubio has spent in office, total. 

And he's not a stupid man.  He's just egotistical and obnoxious - immature and entitled.  Same way we admit Rachel maddow is smart, she's just fcking misguided and a rude prick.  Biden knows more about the law than probably any other dem in that 2016 race.  But since he's a douche, he will lose nomination.

40 years in high office.  Chairman of foreign relations. Dude's seen shit we cannot imagine, he's been privy to world-changing convo for decades while Rand was pooping yellow and playing in the sandbox ignoring his whiny dad telling him to pick up his toys. 

Shit on him all you want, I agree with most of it.  BUT he's a smart man, and he's very experienced in govt.  On a functional level, biden, like jeb, would do fine in office... the problem is, they're both shithead libs, and people that support them over the other candidates deserve a hot sauce bukkake. 

EXACTLY......In terms of government experiene and knowing where all the skeletons are, Biden is far and away the most qualified....and yes he is very smart and knows foreign policy.....but yes he is also egotistical and probably always believes he's the smartest person in the room which is why he says things that are over the top......I didn't say he would make a great president......or that he would win...just that he would be the most qualified

[Dos Equis]

EXACTLY......In terms of government experiene and knowing where all the skeletons are, Biden is far and away the most qualified....and yes he is very smart and knows foreign policy.....but yes he is also egotistical and probably always believes he's the smartest person in the room which is why he says things that are over the top......I didn't say he would make a great president......or that he would win...just that he would be the most qualified

He is the most qualified person to ever run for president, but he wouldn't make a great president?  That doesn't make sense.

He's not qualified solely because he has spent so much time as a Senator.  By that measure, anyone who has served a long time is qualified to be president.  You have to look at the person's results, their intelligence, leadership, etc.  By those measures, Biden shouldn't sniff the presidency.

[240 is Back]

He is the most qualified person to ever run for president, but he wouldn't make a great president?  That doesn't make sense.

that could happen.  There's probably some military veteran out there, with a PhD, who has served ten terms in congress, who wants to drastically cut the budget... insanely qualified.

But since he won't kneepad the right people, the networks would just shout him down, to be followed by their minions doing the exact same thing.

[andreisdaman]

He is the most qualified person to ever run for president, but he wouldn't make a great president?  That doesn't make sense.

He's not qualified solely because he has spent so much time as a Senator.  By that measure, anyone who has served a long time is qualified to be president.  You have to look at the person's results, their intelligence, leadership, etc.  By those measures, Biden shouldn't sniff the presidency.

I think we are actually both saying the same thing if you read both of our posts , but you re as egotistical as Biden and won't admit it

[Dos Equis]

I think we are actually both saying the same thing if you read both of our posts , but you re as egotistical as Biden and won't admit it

We're not saying the same thing.  You're saying Biden is the most qualified person ever to be president.  I'm saying he's unqualified to be president, much less the most qualified person ever.  Those are diametrically opposed viewpoints. 

And I'm not sure Biden has a big ego.  He's more of a dummy.  You might be confusing him with President Obama. 

[andreisdaman]

We're not saying the same thing.  You're saying Biden is the most qualified person ever to be president.  I'm saying he's unqualified to be president, much less the most qualified person ever.  Those are diametrically opposed viewpoints. 

And I'm not sure Biden has a big ego.  He's more of a dummy.  You might be confusing him with President Obama. 

oh I think he does...I think in his mind he should be president.....he's not dumb....he just says things off the cuff....and again...he knows all about gov't...knows practically every one in congress...been in the senate for years, vice prez...again not saying he'd be good,....but the qualifications are there

[Dos Equis]

oh I think he does...I think in his mind he should be president.....he's not dumb....he just says things off the cuff....and again...he knows all about gov't...knows practically every one in congress...been in the senate for years, vice prez...again not saying he'd be good,....but the qualifications are there

I'm sure he thinks he should be president, because he has run multiple times. 

Anyone who repeatedly, publicly says dumb things, year after year, isn't very smart. 

Knowing people and outlasting others in Congress doesn't make someone qualified to be president.  What they did during their time in office is far more important.  And Biden has been wrong, repeatedly, for years. 

[Dos Equis]

Clinton clearing primary field for potential 2016 run could leave her vulnerable
Published January 17, 2015
FoxNews.com

Hillary Clinton appears to have scared away much of the competition should she seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. But her early and practically all-encompassing effort also presents the potential liability that she will sail through the primary season largely untested for the bare-knuckled general election.

And it could deny Democrats the chance to define themselves to Americans, strategists say.

“It's not good for a party because the Democratic Party needs a real debate about what it's for, who it's for, what it's about and where we'll take the country,” says Dennis Kucinich, a former Democratic congressman, presidential candidate and a Fox News contributor.

The 67-year-old Clinton plans to make an official announcement in early 2015, leaving some doubt about whether she will indeed run. But her frontrunner status is unquestionable.

She has roughly 62 percent of the likely vote and leads all potential Democratic challengers by a numbing 49.5 percentage points.

And those numbers combined with an ambitious public-speaking schedule and the fundraising and cheerleading group Ready for Hillary are making it difficult for potential primary challengers to raise money.

In addition, Clinton’s most formidable, likely primary challenger now, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, insists she’s not running, leaving the Democratic field so wide open that 73-year-old Bernie Sanders, an independent and junior senator from Vermont, is now fourth behind Clinton, Warren and Vice President Biden, according an averaging of polls by RealClearPolitics.com 

“I think you miss the chance to vet ideals,” says Richard Fowler, a Democrat and host of the progressive-leaning “Richard Fowler Talk Show.” “I think that's what elections are about. Elections are about ideals and how ideals … would then turn into policy that will then turn into how we govern.”

Clinton, a former first lady, secretary of State and New York senator, hasn’t been in a campaign-style debate since 2008, when she lost the Democratic presidential primary to President Obama, then a freshman Illinois senator.

Still, a relatively easy 2016 primary, if Clinton indeed runs, would likely save her from the pummeling she took last time.

“You’re likeable enough, Hillary,” Obama said on stage to Clinton, who was the early Democratic frontrunner in that race, too.

Among the tough questions she will likely face, and needs to answer well, include what she knew about security at the U.S. outpost in Benghazi, Libya, in which four Americans were killed in a 2012 terror attack.

Clinton, who is worthy millions of dollars, also will likely have to make a strong case that she will champion the country’s poor and working class, after saying on her 2014 book tour: “We came out of the White House not only dead broke, but in debt.”

“Hillary Clinton, I think, has proven that when you're off the trail for a while, you come back rusty,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “She certainly came back rusty on that book tour.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/17/clinton-clearing-primary-field-for-potential-2016-run-could-leave-her-short/