So if the ethereum approval fails we see a big dip with btc as well? Thats what you're saying here? How long do you anticipate recovery?
Apologies if I have caused some confusion in my posts. I will try and clarify.
I use a base level model then build risks/opportunities from there.
First and foremost, BTC to 21k price point whether that is a close or a wick. This is my base model for BTC.
BTC leads the market and determines the price range of ETH. If BTC goes to 21k we will see ETH around the 600-700 range. This is by base model for ETH and assumes a ratio pullback from 4.1% to around 3.1% during savage drops. Hence ETH falls faster in a pullback than BTC.
Crystal clear? Nice
From there we have 2 possible scenarios IMO:
1) a bounce from 21k and a second parabolic move
2) a large downward swing on price to 11k-14k which is a bear market move
The argument for outcome 1 is the pullback hasn’t been inline with the brutal pullbacks from parabolic runs that then caused a bear market like outcome 2. Weekly we have gone from 38.1k to 30.2k which is a 20.6% decline in 19 days. This is inline with drops that then had rallies after. Therefore this scenario gets my vote (for now).
The argument for outcome 2 is the negative action the market takes when the ETH futures come into play. We only have one data point for this which resulted in market obliteration via shorting BTC. So the odds of a crash are 1 in 1......
We therefore assume the same market action would be taken but this would be both on BTC and ETH shorts. The large holders dump coins en masse and at the same time take short positions and bleed everybody dry. It would mean the ETH ratio gets obliterated from a 0.041 position to around a 0.021 position.
The fly in the ointment for scenario 2 is the timing of the futures will be at the bottom of a pullback. The question becomes would the market really short it further? In 2017 futures were introduced at the top of a parabolic run so it was ripe for a massive short. This time it is the opposite.
Recovery:
Outcome 1 - a couple of days to bounce from 21k up to 26k-28k range and stabilise.
Outcome 2 - bear market for maybe months.