Federal Reserve - 0.25% rate rise today 03-22-22 from the Fed

[Flexacon]

I definitely wouldn't bet against another rate hiking cycle taking it 9% and I've been a firm believer that a commodities supercycle will happen in the not to distant future, but we'd need a proper recession first before that kicks off.

Today right now I've got US10yr and DXY bouncing from here in a significant way and an SPX draw down. I'll even try call a time 2PM GMT 

The trading master class continues. DXY has put in 10 green weekly candles since this post. It's close to resistance now, so time to exit. US10y higher and SPX doing just what I said.

EU recession will push DXY higher. I got it going to 109. Might need another catalyst after that.

SPX ATH on earnings and Santa Claus rally. Inflation should boost the bottom line for a lot of companies and that is narrative to send it.

Saudis have already sent oil up.

SPX due another correction though first, might start tomorrow or next week. My target is into the 42XXs and then rally to ATH. That then ends either with a recession scare or an actual recession.

BTC looks to be rallying on technicals, could go higher to 28k+, but will probably give it back and more by end of the year. Sub 20K. More importantly Alts will wash out another 50%. That's when I'm looking to enter.  Will you be buying or have you given up completely?

SPX started dropping the very next day and is down 4.3% since this post. Puts and spreads are closed for some serious gains! 

SPX has been trading in a channel for nearly a year now. Next week 4260-80 would be the approx bottom of the channel so there is potential to bounce off there. DXY dropping will help help equities bounce. Data also suggests SPX having a bad August and Sept typically gives us a very bullish last quarter.

Also JPM long puts (part of the JPM collar) are at 4220. The liquidity down there can act as a magnet for price. There is also a gap from June between 4230 and 4240. If bearish sentiment is strong early on next week then every chance SPX runs to low 42XX. Dropping below this would be very bearish. Need to see it happen by Wednesday night/thursday, otherwise it's very unlikely to happen.

October keep an eye out for DXY and oil dropping, then wait for a base to build sub 4300 on SPX and get ready to go long for the rest of the year. Potential mid October bear trap may also provide some nice scalping opportunities, otherwise it looks like clear sailing.

[Mayday]

Ive been waiting for 4,200 for a while as the retest.

A test of the mid point and a hold is high probability the bottom.

A test of the bottom is next odds to happen 13 months after the previous bottom which means November 2023. A run to the bottom would be S&P around 3,864.

My personal view is we test the midpoint at 4,200 and bounce.

[sculpture]

Ive been waiting for 4,200 for a while as the retest.

A test of the mid point and a hold is high probability the bottom.

A test of the bottom is next odds to happen 13 months after the previous bottom which means November 2023. A run to the bottom would be S&P around 3,864.

My personal view is we test the midpoint at 4,200 and bounce.

What's your end of year target for the S&P?

[Mayday]

What's your end of year target for the S&P?

Dunno 🤷‍♂️ Flex and Lizzy will have shorter term stuff and they are really good at it.

We are in a multi year uptrend to an ATH. I only look at milestones which was 1/11 rate rise and here the target is 4,200 and I’ll go full risk.

Next milestone for a probable sell off like this one is around April 2025. Milestone after that is May 2027. Either of those could be -35% from ATH.

[Flexacon]

SPX building the base for a turnaround I mentioned in my last post.

As long as the data release isn't red hot tomorrow, the SPX shouldn't drop below 4200. Might not even touch 4240 again.

After that the SLD period might provide some volatile price action, but October should UPtober. Time to start planning an entry.

[Mayday]

I’m patient. I’ll wait.

We will take 4,200.

Market not even considering the +0.25% rise 1/11 I said was coming many months ago 

[Flexacon]

I’m patient. I’ll wait.

We will take 4,200.

Market not even considering the +0.25% rise 1/11 I said was coming many months ago 

I'm still waiting too, just watching more closely.

I don't think we'll see another 0.25 rise though as they seem to have gone with the strategy of holding for longer at this level. There hasn't  been much bullish data coming out recently to push them to hike either. It's mostly been neutral or bearish.

[obsidian]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trader-says-bitcoin-crypto-markets-093508599.html

Trader Says Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Need ‘Chaos’ for Price Growth

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) remained little changed over the past 24 hours amid tepid price catalysts and fading volumes in both spot and futures markets.

The price of bitcoin appeared set to retake the $27,000 level early Wednesday, but the rally was turned back alongside a renewed slide in the U.S. stock market.

FxPro markets analyst Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in a daily note that while cryptocurrencies saw increased buying equity markets were under the most pressure as the dollar was gaining momentum. However, this momentum didn't last long, which dampened bullish outlooks.

“These growth impulses promise to remain a bull trap, offering the best opportunity to sell on the upside,” Kuptsikevich said.

The trader added that the crypto sector could need banking problems or uncertainty about the solvency of governments to generate sustainable growth momentum.

“Recent moves in bond markets show that something like this is brewing,” Kuptsikevich explained, stating that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies “need financial chaos for growth.”

Meanwhile, alternative tokens were some of the only volatile assets in the crypto market as bitcoin cash (BCH) jumped 8% and DeFi protocol Maker’s MKR tokens rose 7%. Growth in MKR could be tied to an increase in wallet balances holding the token on exchanges, indicating demand.

The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a broad-based index of hundreds of tokens, rose 0.95% in the past 24 hours.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent comments suggested that interest rates may remain high for some time to come, jolting broader markets in the U.S. as traders priced in inflation fears.

[obsidian]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/valkyrie-gets-approval-start-buying-212324387.html

Valkyrie Gets Approval to Start Buying ETH Futures For its Existing Bitcoin ETF

Asset manager Valkyrie started buying Ether (ETH) futures contracts, after getting approval to convert its existing bitcoin futures exchange traded fund (ETF) to a two-for-one investment vehicle.

"Today, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Nasdaq: $BTF) began adding exposure to Ether futures contracts, making it the first US ETF to provide exposure to Ether and Bitcoin futures contracts under one wrapper," a spokesperson told CoinDesk in an email statement.

Valkyrie was first to get approval for ETH futures ETF among other firms, as it "supplemented its prospectus and updated risk disclosures related to Ether futures," said the spokesperson.

The fund's new strategy to combine both ETH and BTC futures contract into one ETF will be formally effective on Oct. 3 and the name will be updated to Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF, while the ticker will remain BTF.

The fund will join other entities that filed to start ETH futures ETF, including Volatility Shares Ether Strategy ETF, Bitwise Ethereum Strategy ETF, VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF, Roundhill Ether Strategy ETF, ProShares Short Ether Strategy ETF, ProShares Ether Strategy ETF and Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF.

Earlier today, VanEck, the $77.8 billion asset under management firm, said that its preparing to roll out its Ethereum futures exchange-traded fund (ETF).

[Flexacon]

Gold and silver have hit the shitter in a big way. Oil has dropped but DXY and 10y aren't showing signs of turnings. VIX futures in backwardation (typically proceeds a market nuke) and SPX is looking bipolar.

Things are not looking good right now. If DXY and 10y don't reverse soon then it might be time to start planning for a market dump.

[Mayday]

Midpoint was hit.

Pullback of 8.4% is no man’s land. Likely pullback during inflationary cycles is -14% which makes 3,960 a high probability target which is the bottom Range. I still like Novemberas the bottom month.

My entire feed has gone euphoric bearish. Talk of collapse and all sorts of shit.