Don't forget that the largest corporate loans made prior to 2008 are starting to reach the end of their life (5-10y loans). The belief in a market recoil is based on these loans turning default. The question is what will happen IF these loans default? After all, these loans were made under the assumption of pre-crash market values, pre-crash hedges and pre-crash leverages. The total amount of burrowed by the large corporations/institutions dwarf the amount burrowed by the pre-crash private house sector.
The problem is that the mathematical models in the risk management sector were "lackluster" to say the least prior to 2008, thus back then large corporations could get away easier with larger leverages. This was mainly because most models didn't assume converging dependence in the outer tails of the used distribution, a thing which seems obvious now to include. In laymen terms, if a crash happens, most sectors will crash. Older models didn't take this into account, which was one reason why the banks and institutions could get away with $1:60 leverages. Thus, loans were made under the assumption that rebalances could be made continuously through these leverages.
Ofcourse, loans have been renegotiated, and some have had their loans terminated earlier (premature default), but there still is a hefty amount of money tied up in loans which will never be repaid.
It is still a hard question to answer, and as a physicist within the financial sector I don't like the "fortune telling" of economists. I prefer raw numbers, as they can be viewed in an objective manner. The data indicates some form of major recoil, but it is till too early to make assumptions of any repercussions.
