http://www.forbes.com/sites/calebmelby/2012/11/12/breaking-down-centi-millionaire-papa-john-schnatters-obamacare-math/The issue: the Affordable Care Act dictates that full-time employees (30 hours or more per week) at companies with more than 50 workers need to be provided health insurance. Schnatter has further claimed that some employers will cut employee hours to avoid providing them with healthcare.
Checking Papa Schnatter’s Math
Last year, Papa John’s International captured $1.218 billion in revenue. Total operating expenses were $1.131 billion. So if Schnatter’s math is accurate (Obamacare will cost his company $5-8 million more annually), then new regulation translates into a .4% to .7% (yes, fractions of a percent) expense increase. It’s difficult to set that ratio against the proposed pie increase, given size and topping differentials, but many of their large specialty pizzas run for $16. Remarkably, a 10-14 cent increase on a $16 pizza falls in a comparable range: .6% to.9%. But the cost transference becomes less equitable if you’re looking at medium pizzas, which run closer to $12, meaning a .8% to 1.15% price increase.
For the sake of argument, let’s say that Papa John’s sells exactly half medium/half large specialty pizzas. Averaging the ranges for both sizes, then averaging that product yields a .86% price increase — well outside the range of what Schnatter says Obamacare will cost him.
So how much would prices go up, under these 50/50 conditions, if they were to fairly reflect the increased cost of doing business onset by Obamacare? Roughly 3.4 to 4.6 cents a pie.
In September, the company announced that it would be giving away 2 million free pizzas. That was, of course, a promotion designed to increase brand awareness and to invite consumers to try the brand — with the ultimate goal of selling more pizzas. Those giveaways can’t really be cataloged alongside sales that would have been made otherwise. But just in case you’re curious, that would be the equivalent of $24 million to $32 million in pizza revenue.
Necks In This Game
Standing to lose (or gain) as his company determines how best to operate under new regulations is Papa Schnatter himself, who owns 6,094,409 shares, or nearly one fourth, of Papa John’s, according to the company’s most recent annual report. 1,268,052 of those shares are held in a family limited partnership and 84,000 shares held in a 501(c)(3). The rest are directly owned. At the $49.44 share price, subtracting those held in a charitable trust, the remaining 6,010,409 shares are worth roughly $297 million. Schnatter’s compensation packages for years 2009-11 were $2,319,643, $2,614,516, and $2,745,219 respectively, also according to the annual report. Papa John’s International has not paid a dividend since 2005.
Also hanging in the balance are the shares of institutional investors FMR (11.6%), BlackRock (6.7%) and JP Morgan Chase (5%). But if these notions of protest materialize, Papa John’s front line will be populated by the franchise owners who operate many of its 4,000-plus international locations.
Emails sent to Papa John’s Investor Relations and calls placed to Papa John’s Public Relations were not immediately returned for comment.
Updates as of 9:15 p.m. EST.