Author Topic: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA  (Read 10150 times)

IroNat

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #150 on: July 19, 2022, 03:47:03 PM »
US housing market could be headed for ‘meltdown,’ economist warns

https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/us-housing-market-could-be-headed-for-meltdown-economist/

“Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss,” Shepherdson added.

ThisisOverload

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #151 on: July 19, 2022, 04:52:29 PM »
As you know, there are some rules of thumb for flipping houses profitably. Smallest house needing the most work in a neighborhood is a pretty sure bet. You are sure right about school districts. West Linn and Lake Oswego our neighboring suburb have the two best school districts in Oregon. What is hard to predict is the emotional side of choosing a property. Sometimes the buyer clicks with the house, maybe it reminds them of good times or their childhood home.

There is a lot of money to be made flipping houses but if you get it wrong, there is also a lot to lose. Like my parents, I bought nicer houses in better neighborhoods. One difference between us is that I invested my profits from the previous house buying the new house, so the mortgages were always manageable. My current house payment is less than what you can rent a 1-bedroom apartment for in my neighborhood. Property taxes are a whole other issue.

Yeah i've always bought small houses that needed lots of repairs, but had good bones; foundation, roof, HVAC system, electrical, etc.

Good school districts and amenities.

It really is a crap shoot because everyone is different, but everyone wants good schools if they have kids.

I'm heavily involved in land planning and development, so i can see the future to an extent. I know once a certain area starts to improve to go with it, don't wait and be the last one in. It's easy to lose your ass. The first 3 houses i flipped i barely made a profit and it was due to not knowing certain tricks. There are deal breakers for some people that i didn't understand. So i started targeting young families with young kids, not the rich folks. People with money are very picky and annoying to deal with.

Also, i stay out of the big Cities now, focus on College towns with 100k or so population, low property taxes and utilities. These areas tend to be more stable, but it's always about timing and many times just dumb luck.

My biggest profit i ever made was in a College town in Texas, i put the house on the market way higher than anticipated and a rich couple came in and bought it cash for my asking price. I was so happy and shocked at the same time. That sale alone basically kickstarted my house flipping business.

I stopped flipping houses right before Covid, i got lucky. It is very volatile right now and too many people are doing it. Now i'm buying undeveloped property in certain areas, that i can sell or develop in the next 10-20 years. With my connections and experience i can develop a small tract of land for 20-30% less than most developers. Just waiting to see what the next big thing is. My cousin made millions developing mini-storage warehouse units in SE Texas. Those things are still very hot in America and relatively cheap to build.

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #152 on: July 19, 2022, 06:20:33 PM »
Yeah i've always bought small houses that needed lots of repairs, but had good bones; foundation, roof, HVAC system, electrical, etc.

Good school districts and amenities.

It really is a crap shoot because everyone is different, but everyone wants good schools if they have kids.

I'm heavily involved in land planning and development, so i can see the future to an extent. I know once a certain area starts to improve to go with it, don't wait and be the last one in. It's easy to lose your ass. The first 3 houses i flipped i barely made a profit and it was due to not knowing certain tricks. There are deal breakers for some people that i didn't understand. So i started targeting young families with young kids, not the rich folks. People with money are very picky and annoying to deal with.

Also, i stay out of the big Cities now, focus on College towns with 100k or so population, low property taxes and utilities. These areas tend to be more stable, but it's always about timing and many times just dumb luck.

My biggest profit i ever made was in a College town in Texas, i put the house on the market way higher than anticipated and a rich couple came in and bought it cash for my asking price. I was so happy and shocked at the same time. That sale alone basically kickstarted my house flipping business.

I stopped flipping houses right before Covid, i got lucky. It is very volatile right now and too many people are doing it. Now i'm buying undeveloped property in certain areas, that i can sell or develop in the next 10-20 years. With my connections and experience i can develop a small tract of land for 20-30% less than most developers. Just waiting to see what the next big thing is. My cousin made millions developing mini-storage warehouse units in SE Texas. Those things are still very hot in America and relatively cheap to build.

It is wise of you to be and lucky that you can be so flexible. If you develop the land you are buying up now over the next 20 years, your real estate development career will be very long. Do you have any plans to retire someday or are you one of those people who will work until they die? I've been retired for eleven years. Going back to work at this point in my life is unthinkable.

COVID has impacted so many lives. Even though I am retired as are many of my friends, this virus turned some of us into hermits. One of my best friends is immune deficient because of having chemo, and her partner has a bad heart plus he is even older than I am, if that is even possible.; D I have not visited with them since the onset of COVID. My sister-in-law and I enjoy going to lunch every month or so. We've not done this since COVID shut down restaurants. Although I am not particularly worried about getting sick or dying from COVID, many people I know are.

I wish you well in whatever career path you take not that you need it. Obviously, you are a very ambitious person. Ambition most often equals success.

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #153 on: July 19, 2022, 06:22:02 PM »
Remember the "we will never have inflation if velocity doesn't increase" argument? (Credit to a macro guy on twitter)

Well......

"1"

Mayday

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #154 on: July 19, 2022, 09:48:43 PM »
Prices going up does the opposite. People buy asap because the price will be higher in short order.

If currency devaluation is so great why not make the currency worthless. That would be awesome, right?

And if money printing is so great why not let everybody do it and not have governments being the only ones having the fun?

The current system is based on a few central planners pushing all the right buttons at the right times, the antithesis of a free market.

The extreme doesn’t work at either end for money supply expansion/contraction.

People claim a fixed supply solves everything. Go play monopoly. It starts off with 15% odd increase in the money supply. In the initial rounds people are flush with cash and buy shit properties like those crap dark purple ones without a thought.

Move ahead 30 rounds or so and that 15% expansion becomes more like 1%. A Few players go broke, the remaining 2 players buy their properties for peanuts. Move ahead to round 60 and money supply inflation is 0.2% and the second player goes broke and one player has all property and all money.

The point is on a fixed money supply or extreme tight one, over time it all ends up with 1 person. The point of money supply expansion is to hand out cash to allow the losing players to keep on playing because the rich don’t hand out shit.

One of the 15% inflationary periods was the 1940s.
1940 house 2,938. Household Income 1.368
1942 house 3.775 household income 1885
1946 house 5,150 household income 3,000

How much have wages gone up from 2010-2020? Bugger all as it was aligned to CPI 2%.

How much have wages gone up from 2020-2022? Metric heaps as CPI rips skyward.

It was exactly the same in the 1970s pretty much and it’s exactly the same today.

These cycles last 5yrs. It’s painful and everybody thinks it will crash when they are in it, next minute property has doubled along with wages. What just happened these last 2yrs? Property up 30%+ and wages up 30+ And everybody think it’s going to crash.

Also keep in mind Pelosi just  bought shares in nvidea. While everyone is busy yelling ‘corruption’ not a single person has said ‘oh shit, the bottom is in, there is no major crash coming’.

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #155 on: December 29, 2022, 03:07:37 PM »

https://www.atr.org/list-of-biden-tax-hikes-hitting-americans-on-jan-1/

President Biden and congressional Democrats (and RINO's)  imposed a long list of tax increases as part of their “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in 2022.

On Jan. 1, 2023 the following Democrat tax hikes will take effect:

$6.5 Billion Natural Gas Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills      

Think your household energy bills are high now? Just wait until the three major energy taxes in the Inflation Reduction Act hit your wallet. The first is a regressive tax on American oil and gas development. The tax will drive up the cost of household energy bills. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the natural gas tax will increase taxes by $6.5 billion.

The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year. Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.

A letter to Congress from the American Gas Association warned that the methane tax would amount to a 17% increase on an average family’s natural gas bill. Democrats have included a tax in the bill despite retail prices for energy surpassing multi-year highs in the United States.

$12 Billion Crude Oil Tax Which Will Increase Household Costs

Democrats are imposing a 16.4 cents-per-barrel tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher gas prices.

The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year.

As noted above, Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.

As if it weren’t bad enough, Democrats have pegged their oil tax increase to inflation. As inflation increases, so will the level of tax.

The non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates the provision will raise $12 billion in taxes.

$1.2 Billion Coal Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills

The tax hike more than doubles the current excise taxes on coal production. Under the Democrat proposal, the tax rate on coal from subsurface mining would increase from $0.50 per ton to $1.10 per ton while the tax rate on coal from surface mining would increase from $0.25 per ton to $0.55 per ton.

JCT estimates that this will raise $1.2 billion in taxes that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher electricity bills.

$74 Billion Stock Tax Which Will Hit Your Nest Egg — 401(k)s, IRAs and Pension Plans

When Americans choose to sell shares of stock back to a company, Democrats will impose a new federal excise tax which will reduce the value of household nest eggs. Raising taxes and restricting stock buybacks harms the retirement savings of any individual with a 401(k), IRA or pension plan.

Union retirement plans will also be hit.

The tax will put U.S. employers at a competitive disadvantage with China, which does not have such a tax.

Stock buybacks help grow retirement accounts. Raising taxes and restricting buybacks would harm the 58 percent of Americans who own stock and more than 60 million workers invested in a 401(k). An additional 14.83 million Americans are invested in 529 education savings accounts.

Retirement accounts hold the largest share of corporate stocks, accounting for roughly 37 percent of the outstanding $22.8 trillion in U.S. corporate stock, according to the Tax Foundation.

In 2017, corporate-sponsored funds made up $4.45 trillion in market value; union-sponsored funds accounted for $409 billion; and public-sponsored funds, which benefit teachers and police officers, added up to $4.25 trillion.

When companies perform stock buybacks, these investors are the ones who benefit. A tax on buybacks could dissuade companies from conducting this action and negatively impact retirement savings.

American companies will face significant compliance costs — a boon to expensive white-shoe law firms — the burden of which will be passed on to working households.

$225 Billion Corporate Income Tax Hike Which Will Be Passed on to Households

Democrats imposed a 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax on the financial statement income of American businesses reporting $1 billion in profits for the past three years. These American companies employ millions of Americans.

The cost of this tax increase will be borne by working families in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs, and lower wages.

A Tax Foundation report from last December found a 15 percent book tax would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent and kill 27,000 jobs.

Preliminary cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office found the provision would increase taxes by more than $225 billion.

According to JCT’s analysis, 49.7 percent of the tax would be borne by the manufacturing industry at a time when manufacturers are already struggling with supply-chain disruptions.

Tax Foundation also warned that current supply chain issues could be worsened by the book tax’s disproportionate burden on key industries. The report concluded that “the coal industry faces the heaviest burden of the book minimum tax, facing a net tax hike of 7.2 percent of its pretax book income, followed by automobile and truck manufacturing, which faces a 5.1 percent tax hike.”


IroNat

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #156 on: December 29, 2022, 06:19:34 PM »
Thanks, Joe.  You're the best.^

ThisisOverload

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #157 on: December 29, 2022, 06:22:22 PM »
Read my lips... No new taxes

Dave D

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #158 on: December 29, 2022, 06:40:31 PM »
Read my lips... No new taxes

This will cost Biden his Presidency.
These guys don’t learn.

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #159 on: December 30, 2022, 02:26:07 AM »
This will cost Biden his Presidency.
These guys don’t learn.
You are assuming he has to actually win an election with votes. 81 million.

Mayday

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #160 on: December 30, 2022, 03:46:49 AM »
This will cost Biden his Presidency.
These guys don’t learn.

The taxes will stay. Plebs voted in a guy with clear mental deficiencies as their president.

I’m not convinced it’s the politicians who don’t know what they are doing.


The first inflationary wave is completed. I just deleted a drool of words to spare what forward data suggests.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #161 on: December 30, 2022, 04:39:49 AM »
For F sake!   >:(

https://www.atr.org/list-of-biden-tax-hikes-hitting-americans-on-jan-1/

President Biden and congressional Democrats (and RINO's)  imposed a long list of tax increases as part of their “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in 2022.

On Jan. 1, 2023 the following Democrat tax hikes will take effect:

$6.5 Billion Natural Gas Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills      

Think your household energy bills are high now? Just wait until the three major energy taxes in the Inflation Reduction Act hit your wallet. The first is a regressive tax on American oil and gas development. The tax will drive up the cost of household energy bills. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the natural gas tax will increase taxes by $6.5 billion.

The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year. Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.

A letter to Congress from the American Gas Association warned that the methane tax would amount to a 17% increase on an average family’s natural gas bill. Democrats have included a tax in the bill despite retail prices for energy surpassing multi-year highs in the United States.

$12 Billion Crude Oil Tax Which Will Increase Household Costs

Democrats are imposing a 16.4 cents-per-barrel tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher gas prices.

The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year.

As noted above, Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.

As if it weren’t bad enough, Democrats have pegged their oil tax increase to inflation. As inflation increases, so will the level of tax.

The non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates the provision will raise $12 billion in taxes.

$1.2 Billion Coal Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills

The tax hike more than doubles the current excise taxes on coal production. Under the Democrat proposal, the tax rate on coal from subsurface mining would increase from $0.50 per ton to $1.10 per ton while the tax rate on coal from surface mining would increase from $0.25 per ton to $0.55 per ton.

JCT estimates that this will raise $1.2 billion in taxes that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher electricity bills.

$74 Billion Stock Tax Which Will Hit Your Nest Egg — 401(k)s, IRAs and Pension Plans

When Americans choose to sell shares of stock back to a company, Democrats will impose a new federal excise tax which will reduce the value of household nest eggs. Raising taxes and restricting stock buybacks harms the retirement savings of any individual with a 401(k), IRA or pension plan.

Union retirement plans will also be hit.

The tax will put U.S. employers at a competitive disadvantage with China, which does not have such a tax.

Stock buybacks help grow retirement accounts. Raising taxes and restricting buybacks would harm the 58 percent of Americans who own stock and more than 60 million workers invested in a 401(k). An additional 14.83 million Americans are invested in 529 education savings accounts.

Retirement accounts hold the largest share of corporate stocks, accounting for roughly 37 percent of the outstanding $22.8 trillion in U.S. corporate stock, according to the Tax Foundation.

In 2017, corporate-sponsored funds made up $4.45 trillion in market value; union-sponsored funds accounted for $409 billion; and public-sponsored funds, which benefit teachers and police officers, added up to $4.25 trillion.

When companies perform stock buybacks, these investors are the ones who benefit. A tax on buybacks could dissuade companies from conducting this action and negatively impact retirement savings.

American companies will face significant compliance costs — a boon to expensive white-shoe law firms — the burden of which will be passed on to working households.

$225 Billion Corporate Income Tax Hike Which Will Be Passed on to Households

Democrats imposed a 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax on the financial statement income of American businesses reporting $1 billion in profits for the past three years. These American companies employ millions of Americans.

The cost of this tax increase will be borne by working families in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs, and lower wages.

A Tax Foundation report from last December found a 15 percent book tax would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent and kill 27,000 jobs.

Preliminary cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office found the provision would increase taxes by more than $225 billion.

According to JCT’s analysis, 49.7 percent of the tax would be borne by the manufacturing industry at a time when manufacturers are already struggling with supply-chain disruptions.

Tax Foundation also warned that current supply chain issues could be worsened by the book tax’s disproportionate burden on key industries. The report concluded that “the coal industry faces the heaviest burden of the book minimum tax, facing a net tax hike of 7.2 percent of its pretax book income, followed by automobile and truck manufacturing, which faces a 5.1 percent tax hike.”

Gym Rat

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #162 on: December 30, 2022, 06:44:57 AM »
Classic line from Dementia Joe the other day:

"Used car prices did not go up this month"!!    ::) ::)

Moron

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #163 on: December 30, 2022, 09:19:52 AM »
https://www.atr.org/list-of-biden-tax-hikes-hitting-americans-on-jan-1/

President Biden and congressional Democrats (and RINO's)  imposed a long list of tax increases as part of their “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in 2022.

Did the inflation reduction act start working yet?

Mayday

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #164 on: December 30, 2022, 11:19:39 AM »
Classic line from Dementia Joe the other day:

"Used car prices did not go up this month"!!    ::) ::)

Moron

High end car US car market has been falling for a number of months.

We lag to the US down here but I’m seeing the bottom priced cars fighting to hold up the floor price despite pressure from later models building at the same prices. EG 2014 Audi RS7 priced the same as a 2016 RS7. Same with the RS6. 2007-08 Audi R8 priced the same or higher than 2011 models. Stock will keep building because of this idiocy and when it breaks it’ll come down fairly hard.

Did the inflation reduction act start working yet?

According to metrics, yes. really it’s just the rate rises and the stopping of the money printer, not the ‘program’ they created.

The CPI will come down but prices for everyday stuff will sit flat’ish for 1-2yrs before we get a 2nd wave which might be the last one.


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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #165 on: December 30, 2022, 06:38:33 PM »
All the central banks have to do is shrink the money supply and inflation would stop over night..

Mayday

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #166 on: January 01, 2023, 08:14:12 PM »
All the central banks have to do is shrink the money supply and inflation would stop over night..

This Is an inflationary cycle which monetises debt and kicks off the next infrastructure boom.

It’s a 5yr thing generally to kick off the following decade long boom.

It’s the largest wealth generational event of your lifetime. The interesting part is everybody wants it to stop because their McDonalds chips cost $0.50 more than last year.

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #167 on: January 02, 2023, 01:08:52 AM »
This Is an inflationary cycle which monetises debt and kicks off the next infrastructure boom.

It’s a 5yr thing generally to kick off the following decade long boom.

It’s the largest wealth generational event of your lifetime. The interesting part is everybody wants it to stop because their McDonalds chips cost $0.50 more than last year.
Like the late 1970's.

Mayday

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #168 on: January 03, 2023, 12:05:10 AM »
Like the late 1970's.

But also the 1940s, particularly 1945 to 1952.

Debt monetisation works via the inflation mechanism where most of the inflation in printing happens in a 5yr cycle printing wise but then GDP growth overtakes in the long term and effectively decreases the debt to GDP.

Costs drive higher prices, higher prices increase GDP and higher GDP lowers your debt ratio and like magic, debt is worthless. Huzzah!

A general rule of thumb for the outcome would be to take pre pandemic prices:
*property 100% growth (end of first wave is 50% so this is on schedule - we pullback then go again)
*cars 300% —> although this is not playing out right now but might in the 2nd wave
*income 50% (end of first wave we saw 25% so this is looking on trend)

The vital key is if the govt is making moves to monetise your debt then you make the same move and monetise yours aswell. However proper cashflow management is key as you will end up getting squeezed yourself and for that you need to pick an interest rate you can reach. I can go to 15% whereas I have seen 1 neighbour discuss selling their property to buy further out and another neighbour just sold their 100k SUV for a 40k small car. These are the signs of people getting squeezed…..

Gym Rat

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #169 on: January 04, 2023, 12:45:33 AM »
This Is an inflationary cycle which monetises debt and kicks off the next infrastructure boom.

It’s a 5yr thing generally to kick off the following decade long boom.

It’s the largest wealth generational event of your lifetime. The interesting part is everybody wants it to stop because their McDonalds chips cost $0.50 more than last year.

Reading your posts gives me some hope for my retirement... (After 600K disappeared from my 401K thx to the current commie-Lib globalists)...

Mayday

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #170 on: January 06, 2023, 05:25:46 PM »
Reading your posts gives me some hope for my retirement... (After 600K disappeared from my 401K thx to the current commie-Lib globalists)...

Depends what you are in. Equities will be a see saw. Crypto is playing lottery to hope to win big. I went eyeballs deep on property straight out of Covid lockdown because during inflationary periods debt is monetised and costs rise.

Pulling from an archived news article written in 1952 about Melbourne in Australia we get a very good look into what people thought and saw:

From 1939 to 1952 -->
Bricks went 3.5x
Weatherboard went 5x
paint went 2.5x
City suburban land went 2x to 3x
City premium land went 3x to 4x
Labour went 1.5x

Home construction lead times blew out to 2yrs due to labour and product shortages
Home contracts went from fixed priced to a cost+ model with no fixed end date
Tradesmen took smaller sub cash jobs which pulled them from contracted work and caused delays

Post the inflationary end property had a -20% cool off for large homes and 10%-15% for smaller homes. Builds times went back to 6-8 months and prices stabilised.

One of the key learnings by the journalist was during the 40s people thought prices couldn't go higher but because the building materials kept climbing to what were deemed unreasonable levels. However, buyers merely turned off new builds and went on a buying rampage of existing homes which were priced cheaper in comparison. This ended up increasing existing home prices up to the point where they met new home builds. Why? Because once costs were elevated they never dropped back therefore the cost to buy/build went up to match the cost of the products.


The article written 70yrs ago reads like it was written today. The inflationary cycle was really 1945-1952, a span of 7yrs where this really played out.

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #171 on: Today at 03:38:49 PM »
i=bkaeOaQXpM2Pbl58

Lartinos

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Re: Inflation now at 9.1% in the USA
« Reply #172 on: Today at 03:53:02 PM »
The bull run we are in is what will really make the shit hit the fan with inflation.