Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[loco]

Anyone worried just need to zoom out a little. We know BTC will hit 100K. We know it will hit 1m. But of course there will be ups and downs along the way.

[Flexacon]

It was a great call, made even better by you not waiting for your $76k target to hit first.

I still have a bunch of staked positions open, but I expect to keep printing with them even in a downtrend (uptrend would print harder though)

I think macro is guiding us more than ever though and there is currently a huge put wall in ES that appeared almost out of no where. Maybe a front run of FOMC, so a V shape recovery may be on the cards or it could just be a line in the sand moment. First scenario could see BTC squeeze hard from here to $70k+ as it's only shorts left for the cabal to rek.  Not playing anything, but will be watching with the interest.

Very interesting... halfway there... Closing above 62k this week would be a good sign for bulls

Also wtf GBTC had $63.1M of INFLOWS! Is someone (Barry) trolling or is someone trying to send a message? Definitely some kinda game going on there.

[Mayday]

Very interesting... halfway there... Closing above 62k this week would be a good sign for bulls

Also wtf GBTC had $63.1M of INFLOWS! Is someone (Barry) trolling or is someone trying to send a message?

When we tagged 57k the short Liqs were at 63k and we stopped right here. Might go 65k to take out new shorts.

Just like post 69k in 2021, the crowd will be bullish for ageeeeeees and be ‘up only’ all the way down until they have every cent taken from them.

The evil overlord nature in me says we take it to 25k and ETH ETF is denied in 2024 wiping out the entire space. We then go up only 2025.

[Flexacon]

When we tagged 57k the short Liqs were at 63k and we stopped right here. Might go 65k to take out new shorts.

Just like post 69k in 2021, the crowd will be bullish for ageeeeeees and be ‘up only’ all the way down until they have every cent taken from them.

The evil overlord nature in me says we take it to 25k and ETH ETF is denied in 2024 wiping out the entire space. We then go up only 2025.

Any price for BTC is possible as things like recession and stagflation are still on the table, but so are soft or no landing albeit looking less likely.

ETH ETF denial is mostly priced in so won't do much damage.

Looks like someone is trying to paint the BTC chart and manipulate sentiment. On the day CZ gets his sentence BTC dumps hard on no news and there is a huge net ETF outflow including iBit for the first time. Support lines are broken.

Now we get the opposite. Price pumping for no reason and GBTC has it's first net inflow day on the very day iBit was expected to takeover as the biggest BTC ETF. This could be a pump that keeps going especially if SPX plays nice for the rest of May (risk on is back)

[Griffith]

The usual panic and predictions of catastrophic downside in this thread 

[Griffith]

Not that I view Reuters as the bastion of truth. It's still controlled by the "Tribe".

But in your own link, you left out the part at the bottom:

While the SEC partly won the case, Torres dealt the regulator a high-profile setback when she ruled that XRP Ripple sold on public cryptocurrency exchanges did not meet the legal definition of a security.

Torres denied the SEC's request to repeal that ruling while the case is in progress. But the regulator may appeal once the judge decides its request for penalties.

^^^^^^^^
XRP sold to the general public on exchanges was not ruled to be a security. There were no contracts. The same will apply to ETH obviously. I signed no contracts when I mined or bought ETH. The speculation for me was no different than your speculation with BTC. Or someone who buys a baseball card. I also have put a lot more work and sweat equity to acquire ETH than you did with your BTC. But the bottom line is, the ETH I bought or mined was not a security based on the findings of the Ripple / XRP case. That's the precedent.

I will add that the SEC is of course completely corrupt. I know you are looking towards them for selfish, greedy reasons to pump your BTC bags at the expense of other token holders. You already stated that in this thread. So you want the SEC to fuck all other investors (when their stated mission is to protect investors) who don't hold BTC so you can make more money with BTC. Nice. Obviously I am not onboard with that. Not once have I said something like that. I have opined that I think smaller market cap tokens might pump more than larger caps like BTC or ETH. But I don't want to see anyone "lose" money, whichever tokens they are invested in. And I would not champion a corrupt entity like the SEC to go after projects that I am not invested in.

Correct.

The maxipads fear competition.

In a free-market, there will always be competition, choice and alternatives, which is something that certain crypto token fundamentalists fail or refuse to understand.

[gib]

Bitcoiners know there is no legitimate "alt" to Bitcoin. (Eth being an "alt" to BTC has long since failed as a narrative).

In terms of "competition" almost all of the "alts" actually compete with regulated securities, only they were illegally issued. So, to that extent, I can see why all those companies who legitimately raised capital in compliance with securities laws might see it as unfair that such businesses can breach the law like that. And it is for this reason also, that authorities will enforce the law.

[gib]

This guy has a good show.

[Mayday]

This guy has a good show.

The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.

[gib]

The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.

Agree.

[obsidian]

The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.

https://news.bitcoin.com/the-halving-effect-bitcoin-hashrate-decreases-as-miners-prepare-for-probable-difficulty-drop/

That means BTC mining will centralize to the point where the Bitcoin network is secured similar to a Trafdi Bank's network is secured by centralized servers.

When I mined Ethereum I had to build my own rigs from scratch with hundreds of parts. Bitcoin mining involves buying one complete turnkey unit, plugging it in, and starting to mine / Secure Bitcoin. Setting up an Ethereum staking validator is also a lot more complicated than getting involved in Bitcoin mining. But that means Ethereum is actually technically more secure compared to Bitcoin.

Long-term I see Bitcoin mining completely centralizing. And eventually the Proof of Work model will rely on fees mostly, not the mining of new BTC. This is why I think the Proof of Stake model has better long-term viability.

[gib]

Perhaps - whilst a lot more miners are part of mining pools giving the appearance of centralization, they are still separate and individual entities. Basically, we should see independent miners pop up wherever energy can be most efficiently harvested. Lets see. Its an interesting area keep an eye on.

[Flexacon]

The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.

Miners are now also getting good fees from Bitcoin  L2s, ordinal, inscriptions, runes etc. Break even isn't as simple to calculate as before.

[Mayday]

Perhaps - whilst a lot more miners are part of mining pools giving the appearance of centralization, they are still separate and individual entities. Basically, we should see independent miners pop up wherever energy can be most efficiently harvested. Lets see. Its an interesting area keep an eye on.

Efficiency looks for centralisation. I have no problem with this but the BTC maxis do.

The reality is after China left mining the Us went from 3% to 35% hash rate. Only Russia is left keeping the US from likely having total control of the network.

But if number goes up, nobody really cares about their privacy. If Russia are squeezed out then it’s going to be interesting what the US govt do once they own the network. Hence I think the narrative  is the US will peg to BTC the new world Reserve currency is one the masses will accept if this happens and rally behind it.

Again, I couldn’t care less, send the number up lol. But anyone who cares for privacy I am saying if they hold BTC they are lying, they only care about number up otherwise you’d use cash.

[Mayday]

Any price for BTC is possible as things like recession and stagflation are still on the table, but so are soft or no landing albeit looking less likely.

ETH ETF denial is mostly priced in so won't do much damage.

Looks like someone is trying to paint the BTC chart and manipulate sentiment. On the day CZ gets his sentence BTC dumps hard on no news and there is a huge net ETF outflow including iBit for the first time. Support lines are broken.

Now we get the opposite. Price pumping for no reason and GBTC has it's first net inflow day on the very day iBit was expected to takeover as the biggest BTC ETF. This could be a pump that keeps going especially if SPX plays nice for the rest of May (risk on is back)

I’m sticking with my Mar-Jul window. A liquidity event is due soon, mid year. BTC tops before S&P. The ETFs haven’t changed this, S&P is near ATH so why is BTC down near 62k if everything was going well?

I have Inflationary wave 2 starting this year, therefore we must have a deflationary event first. Election in November They need a quick hit to put downward pressure on Q3-Q4 inflation to justify the spending spree into Nov.

We already know retail will buy the dip to 42k.

[gib]

Efficiency looks for centralisation. I have no problem with this but the BTC maxis do.

The reality is after China left mining the Us went from 3% to 35% hash rate. Only Russia is left keeping the US from likely having total control of the network.

But if number goes up, nobody really cares about their privacy. If Russia are squeezed out then it’s going to be interesting what the US govt do once they own the network. Hence I think the narrative  is the US will peg to BTC the new world Reserve currency is one the masses will accept if this happens and rally behind it.

Again, I couldn’t care less, send the number up lol. But anyone who cares for privacy I am saying if they hold BTC they are lying, they only care about number up otherwise you’d use cash.

BTC is mined globally and will be mined anywhere a rig can be attached to cheap energy. Here is a good heat map of global mining distribution.

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map

[gib]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-withdraws-ethereum-futures-etf-application

[Flexacon]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-withdraws-ethereum-futures-etf-application

Come on now bro. Don't just post this without providing your take on it.

Some are saying it bearish ETH (guessing you lean this way), some saying it could mean grayscale withdrew it cos they know the spot ETF is gonna get approved. Maybe not this month, but for the blackrock deadline. Some say it doesn't mean anything.

[loco]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

[Flexacon]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

It's only been a few weeks. Halving historically doesn't do anything for the price for the first 2 to 4 months after it. If anything the price drops.

Halving increases mining difficulty and typically this means a lot of bitcoin miners go out of business, but it's not an overnight process. Those unprofitable miners may hold mined bitcoins which they dump as the exit and this is the reason why there is often a big initial draw down after the halving.

Once they are all out of the picture and only profitable miners remain, the sell pressure from miners selling decreases significantly, so conditions for price appreciation is at its most favourable. The timeline is months, not days.

[Griffith]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

If you look at the charts from the same periods in the past, it has behaved similarly.

Historically, there has been a dip followed by a period of consolidation before resuming the uptrend.

[gib]

Come on now bro. Don't just post this without providing your take on it.

Some are saying it bearish ETH (guessing you lean this way), some saying it could mean grayscale withdrew it cos they know the spot ETF is gonna get approved. Maybe not this month, but for the blackrock deadline. Some say it doesn't mean anything.

My take? Well with the recent statements from the SEC about almost all crypto not being compliant with SEC filing and disclosure regulations, and with it seemingly going very quiet on the ETH spot applications, and there being very small demand for Eth in the HK ETH - overall I would say, we will not see an ETH ETF anytime soon. As I have said, it would essentially be a perversion of the law. Best shot would be for legislative change, and that will not come, if at all, until next election. So, I would not rule it out entirely, but I see it as unlikely, and would suggest tempering expectations.

[gib]

Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

Assuming demand remains consistent, with the new supply meeting some of that demand, the price has to go up given the new supply has halved (to the extent that drop in new supply has not been priced in).

Given the recent US ETF (and more coming in other countries), slowing outflows from GBTC, and a possible peak in interest rates, combined with this halving in supply, I would expect the price to keep rising over time, and at some point quite sharply.

[obsidian]

My take? Well with the recent statements from the SEC about almost all crypto not being compliant with SEC filing and disclosure regulations, and with it seemingly going very quiet on the ETH spot applications, and there being very small demand for Eth in the HK ETH - overall I would say, we will not see an ETH ETF anytime soon. As I have said, it would essentially be a perversion of the law. Best shot would be for legislative change, and that will not come, if at all, until next election. So, I would not rule it out entirely, but I see it as unlikely, and would suggest tempering expectations.

Perversion of law?! LMAO. What law?! The Securities act was established many decades before cryptocurrencies were developed. Securities require contracts. There are no contracts trading any cryptocurrencies. There is literally no difference between you buying Bitcoin or me buying (or mining) Ethereum or Dogecoin. We both bought it with FIAT. We both did not sign any contracts. We both expect a profit. In my case I bought some Ethereum but the vast majority was mined via Proof of Work.

The SEC will lose in court if they try to claim that the Ethereum token is a security. Proof of Stake does not change the classification either. Setting up a solo staking validator takes more work and is a lot more complicated than plugging an ASIC miner into an outlet to mine BTC. Proof of Stake validators are "workers", just like miners are workers. They need hardware, electricity, internet, a building, cooling, and regular maintenance. With Proof of Stake there is the added issue that your staked ETH could be subject to incremental slashing should the validator be offline for prolonged periods.

I would argue that Ethereum staking is also more decentralized than Bitcoin mining.

The initial ICO of Ethereum might be seen as a securities violation - we'll see. Bitcoin was sold to acquire Ethereum. But the many subsequent mining and purchasing of Ethereum to third parties were not securities violations. The token itself is not a security. This was proved in court with the Ripple case. And solo Proof of Stake requires a lot of work and technical expertise on the part of the participant. That in addition to the absence of any contracts means POS Ethereum is not a security at all. But the courts could prove that if needed.

[obsidian]

BTC is mined globally and will be mined anywhere a rig can be attached to cheap energy. Here is a good heat map of global mining distribution.

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map

I really don't see an ASIC miner as a rig. To me it is more an appliance like a microwave. It is unboxed, plugged in, and there you go with your centralized ASIC mining. GPU mining was on a different level of complexity and work required to set it up and run in. I actually despise ASIC mining. It's a device tweaked to do one thing and that's it.