Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 1132448 times)

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10850 on: May 02, 2024, 04:33:01 AM »
XRP WAS held to be an illegally issued security. And hence Ripple and its various executives are now facing huge fines and possible criminal sentences. What was not help to be a criminal breach of securities laws, was for individuals to trade those illegally issued shares among themselves. Read the judgement - its quite clearly written and explained (and also still very unclear whether an exchange is permitted to facilitate the trade of such illegally issued securities). It is for this reason, obviously, that you have not seen any XRP ETF approved (which you would think would be the case, following your logic).

Not sure what is meant by the Fink quote, but it is clear that ETH as a technology will continue despite ETH being ruled a security and despite there being no Eth ETF. Maybe that is what he meant?
This is incorrect. XRP was determined to not be a security. Go read up on the case. Why are you posting this? My question again is if the SEC could not prove that XRP was a security, how will they do so with ETH?

https://www.investopedia.com/what-does-the-xrp-not-a-security-ruling-mean-for-other-cryptocurrencies-7561320#:~:text=KEY%20TAKEAWAYS,crypto%20waged%20by%20the%20SEC.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
A Thursday court ruling in Ripple's case with the SEC indicated that the digital asset XRP is not a security.

The crypto industry has responded positively to the news, with crypto exchanges relisting XRP and many hoping this will lead to an end to the perceived war on crypto waged by the SEC.

The ruling will undoubtedly have an impact on the SEC's cases against Binance and Coinbase, and the fact that many U.S.-based exchanges have decided to relist XRP is seen as positive development for Binance and Coinbase's legal standing.

While there is reason for crypto enthusiasts to rejoice over the short term, the reality is the Ripple ruling may not be the end-all-be-all method by which crypto assets are classified.

https://www.globalcompliancenews.com/2023/07/28/https-insightplus-bakermckenzie-com-bm-data-technology-united-states-finally-a-court-decides-xrp-by-itself-is-not-a-security-your-turn-congress_07252023/

Orange groves are not securities and neither is XRP: Back to Howey basics
While the Ripple decision contains other important holdings, for the sake of Howey and the crypto industry, perhaps no holding was as important as returning to the basics: that is, the purpose of the Howey test and the distinction between an investment contract and its subject asset. In assessing the XRP token, Judge Torres recognized that any asset can be the subject of an investment contract, but selling any asset (including a digital asset) via an investment contract does not automatically make that subject asset into a security. Rather, whether the sale and distribution of XRP, orange groves, or any other asset (a non-security) constitutes an investment contract (a security) depends on the totality of the circumstances surrounding each contract, transaction, or scheme through which the asset is sold and distributed (i.e., a transaction-by-transaction analysis).

When looking at XRP, Judge Torres was unequivocal in holding that XRP, the digital asset by itself, is not “a ‘contract, transaction, or scheme’ that embodies the Howey requirements of an investment contract,” and thus it is not a security. In that sense, XRP, the digital asset, is no different than the orange groves in Howey. In Howey, investors purchased ownership interests in parcels of orange groves coupled with a service agreement for another person to cultivate, harvest and market the crops and remit the net proceeds to the passive investors. It was the entirety of that arrangement that constituted the investment contract in Howey, not the orange groves themselves.

Re-establishing the basic Howey analysis framework may be the most important outcome of the Order, and arguably one less likely to be overturned on appeal. Moreover, the Securities Clarity Act and the recently introduced Financial Innovation and Technology (FIT) for the 21st Century Act would further reinforce the distinction between the investment contract and the underlying asset. Indeed, the connection was immediately highlighted by Rep. Emmers in reaction to the Order.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10851 on: May 02, 2024, 04:40:42 AM »
Obsidian- you are a smart guy. I urge you to read the case, as opposed to watching youtubers or reading short summaries.

The entire case is public. However, if you do want a short snippet which explains, see here:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sec-seeking-2-billion-ripple-labs-chief-legal-officer-says-2024-03-25/#

"Torres ruled in July that the blockchain company's sale of XRP worth $728.9 million to hedge funds and other sophisticated buyers amounted to unlawful sales of unregistered securities."

It is beyond doubt that the judge ruled that these tokens ARE securities, and further that they were ILLEGALLY ISSUED.
 
As to what is happening to the decision that XRP issuers committed SEC violations by issuing illegal securities, I believe there will be a further trial on this later this year, unless of course these executives and the company admit liability, possibly agree to jail time, and pay Billions in punishment. So, if they settle, we are left with a very clear ruling, which was not appealed, that XRP was an illegally issued security. And if not settled, this will go to trail, risking an adverse finding that makes it entirely clear that the Howey test was clearly violated (not just by Ripple but by most alt coin issuers). That then still leaves, for now, the issue open as to where such illegally issued securities may be publicly traded (we can let Coinbase etc fight that one, and by the way there are far more than just securities laws being breached with such conduct which may also be enforced), but either way, these are all reasons why many with a legal background believe that ETFs of such assets are very unlikely to be approved (at least not unless there is legislative change).

Again, some possible upside for ETH if an EFT is eventually approved (although also quite a possibility of a downside due to disappointing investor demand), but either way, a lot at stake. The "safe bet" is to align with BTC. The riskier bet, is to hope somehow that things change in relation to the legal status of alts, and that this in turn leads to upside for you. For ETH, also be very weary, it can be infinitely diluted by alts to Eth - SOL, etc, which is also weighing on its demand as a desirable asset to hold long term.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10852 on: May 02, 2024, 05:52:59 PM »
Obsidian- you are a smart guy. I urge you to read the case, as opposed to watching youtubers or reading short summaries.

The entire case is public. However, if you do want a short snippet which explains, see here:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sec-seeking-2-billion-ripple-labs-chief-legal-officer-says-2024-03-25/#

"Torres ruled in July that the blockchain company's sale of XRP worth $728.9 million to hedge funds and other sophisticated buyers amounted to unlawful sales of unregistered securities."

It is beyond doubt that the judge ruled that these tokens ARE securities, and further that they were ILLEGALLY ISSUED.
 
As to what is happening to the decision that XRP issuers committed SEC violations by issuing illegal securities, I believe there will be a further trial on this later this year, unless of course these executives and the company admit liability, possibly agree to jail time, and pay Billions in punishment. So, if they settle, we are left with a very clear ruling, which was not appealed, that XRP was an illegally issued security. And if not settled, this will go to trail, risking an adverse finding that makes it entirely clear that the Howey test was clearly violated (not just by Ripple but by most alt coin issuers). That then still leaves, for now, the issue open as to where such illegally issued securities may be publicly traded (we can let Coinbase etc fight that one, and by the way there are far more than just securities laws being breached with such conduct which may also be enforced), but either way, these are all reasons why many with a legal background believe that ETFs of such assets are very unlikely to be approved (at least not unless there is legislative change).

Again, some possible upside for ETH if an EFT is eventually approved (although also quite a possibility of a downside due to disappointing investor demand), but either way, a lot at stake. The "safe bet" is to align with BTC. The riskier bet, is to hope somehow that things change in relation to the legal status of alts, and that this in turn leads to upside for you. For ETH, also be very weary, it can be infinitely diluted by alts to Eth - SOL, etc, which is also weighing on its demand as a desirable asset to hold long term.
Not that I view Reuters as the bastion of truth. It's still controlled by the "Tribe".

But in your own link, you left out the part at the bottom:

While the SEC partly won the case, Torres dealt the regulator a high-profile setback when she ruled that XRP Ripple sold on public cryptocurrency exchanges did not meet the legal definition of a security.

Torres denied the SEC's request to repeal that ruling while the case is in progress. But the regulator may appeal once the judge decides its request for penalties.


^^^^^^^^
XRP sold to the general public on exchanges was not ruled to be a security. There were no contracts. The same will apply to ETH obviously. I signed no contracts when I mined or bought ETH. The speculation for me was no different than your speculation with BTC. Or someone who buys a baseball card. I also have put a lot more work and sweat equity to acquire ETH than you did with your BTC. But the bottom line is, the ETH I bought or mined was not a security based on the findings of the Ripple / XRP case. That's the precedent.

I will add that the SEC is of course completely corrupt. I know you are looking towards them for selfish, greedy reasons to pump your BTC bags at the expense of other token holders. You already stated that in this thread. So you want the SEC to fuck all other investors (when their stated mission is to protect investors) who don't hold BTC so you can make more money with BTC. Nice. Obviously I am not onboard with that. Not once have I said something like that. I have opined that I think smaller market cap tokens might pump more than larger caps like BTC or ETH. But I don't want to see anyone "lose" money, whichever tokens they are invested in. And I would not champion a corrupt entity like the SEC to go after projects that I am not invested in.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10853 on: May 02, 2024, 11:48:07 PM »

A young kid just Launched his own token while streaming. His Mum for some weird reason showed up on camera in a singlet and starts juggling her boobs right next to his head saying he used to suck on them. People start giving tips and it’s going bing bing as money rolls in.

Urgh, we are about to get so fucked.


loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10854 on: May 03, 2024, 06:03:09 PM »
Anyone worried just need to zoom out a little. We know BTC will hit 100K. We know it will hit 1m. But of course there will be ups and downs along the way.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10855 on: May 03, 2024, 10:39:10 PM »
It was a great call, made even better by you not waiting for your $76k target to hit first.

I still have a bunch of staked positions open, but I expect to keep printing with them even in a downtrend (uptrend would print harder though)

I think macro is guiding us more than ever though and there is currently a huge put wall in ES that appeared almost out of no where. Maybe a front run of FOMC, so a V shape recovery may be on the cards or it could just be a line in the sand moment. First scenario could see BTC squeeze hard from here to $70k+ as it's only shorts left for the cabal to rek.  Not playing anything, but will be watching with the interest.

Very interesting... halfway there... Closing above 62k this week would be a good sign for bulls

Also wtf GBTC had $63.1M of INFLOWS! Is someone (Barry) trolling or is someone trying to send a message? Definitely some kinda game going on there.


Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10856 on: May 04, 2024, 01:50:49 AM »
Very interesting... halfway there... Closing above 62k this week would be a good sign for bulls

Also wtf GBTC had $63.1M of INFLOWS! Is someone (Barry) trolling or is someone trying to send a message?



When we tagged 57k the short Liqs were at 63k and we stopped right here. Might go 65k to take out new shorts.

Just like post 69k in 2021, the crowd will be bullish for ageeeeeees and be ‘up only’ all the way down until they have every cent taken from them.

The evil overlord nature in me says we take it to 25k and ETH ETF is denied in 2024 wiping out the entire space. We then go up only 2025.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10857 on: May 04, 2024, 02:40:04 AM »
When we tagged 57k the short Liqs were at 63k and we stopped right here. Might go 65k to take out new shorts.

Just like post 69k in 2021, the crowd will be bullish for ageeeeeees and be ‘up only’ all the way down until they have every cent taken from them.

The evil overlord nature in me says we take it to 25k and ETH ETF is denied in 2024 wiping out the entire space. We then go up only 2025.

Any price for BTC is possible as things like recession and stagflation are still on the table, but so are soft or no landing albeit looking less likely.

ETH ETF denial is mostly priced in so won't do much damage.

Looks like someone is trying to paint the BTC chart and manipulate sentiment. On the day CZ gets his sentence BTC dumps hard on no news and there is a huge net ETF outflow including iBit for the first time. Support lines are broken.

Now we get the opposite. Price pumping for no reason and GBTC has it's first net inflow day on the very day iBit was expected to takeover as the biggest BTC ETF. This could be a pump that keeps going especially if SPX plays nice for the rest of May (risk on is back)

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10858 on: May 05, 2024, 02:53:10 AM »
The usual panic and predictions of catastrophic downside in this thread  ;D

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10859 on: May 05, 2024, 03:17:14 AM »
Not that I view Reuters as the bastion of truth. It's still controlled by the "Tribe".

But in your own link, you left out the part at the bottom:

While the SEC partly won the case, Torres dealt the regulator a high-profile setback when she ruled that XRP Ripple sold on public cryptocurrency exchanges did not meet the legal definition of a security.

Torres denied the SEC's request to repeal that ruling while the case is in progress. But the regulator may appeal once the judge decides its request for penalties.


^^^^^^^^
XRP sold to the general public on exchanges was not ruled to be a security. There were no contracts. The same will apply to ETH obviously. I signed no contracts when I mined or bought ETH. The speculation for me was no different than your speculation with BTC. Or someone who buys a baseball card. I also have put a lot more work and sweat equity to acquire ETH than you did with your BTC. But the bottom line is, the ETH I bought or mined was not a security based on the findings of the Ripple / XRP case. That's the precedent.

I will add that the SEC is of course completely corrupt. I know you are looking towards them for selfish, greedy reasons to pump your BTC bags at the expense of other token holders. You already stated that in this thread. So you want the SEC to fuck all other investors (when their stated mission is to protect investors) who don't hold BTC so you can make more money with BTC. Nice. Obviously I am not onboard with that. Not once have I said something like that. I have opined that I think smaller market cap tokens might pump more than larger caps like BTC or ETH. But I don't want to see anyone "lose" money, whichever tokens they are invested in. And I would not champion a corrupt entity like the SEC to go after projects that I am not invested in.

Correct.

The maxipads fear competition.

In a free-market, there will always be competition, choice and alternatives, which is something that certain crypto token fundamentalists fail or refuse to understand.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10860 on: May 06, 2024, 01:11:00 AM »
Bitcoiners know there is no legitimate "alt" to Bitcoin. (Eth being an "alt" to BTC has long since failed as a narrative).

In terms of "competition" almost all of the "alts" actually compete with regulated securities, only they were illegally issued. So, to that extent, I can see why all those companies who legitimately raised capital in compliance with securities laws might see it as unfair that such businesses can breach the law like that. And it is for this reason also, that authorities will enforce the law.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10861 on: May 06, 2024, 01:13:14 AM »
This guy has a good show.


Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10862 on: May 06, 2024, 11:11:23 AM »
This guy has a good show.



The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10863 on: May 06, 2024, 01:25:58 PM »
The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.

Agree.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10864 on: May 06, 2024, 02:08:44 PM »
The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.
https://news.bitcoin.com/the-halving-effect-bitcoin-hashrate-decreases-as-miners-prepare-for-probable-difficulty-drop/

That means BTC mining will centralize to the point where the Bitcoin network is secured similar to a Trafdi Bank's network is secured by centralized servers.

When I mined Ethereum I had to build my own rigs from scratch with hundreds of parts. Bitcoin mining involves buying one complete turnkey unit, plugging it in, and starting to mine / Secure Bitcoin. Setting up an Ethereum staking validator is also a lot more complicated than getting involved in Bitcoin mining. But that means Ethereum is actually technically more secure compared to Bitcoin.

Long-term I see Bitcoin mining completely centralizing. And eventually the Proof of Work model will rely on fees mostly, not the mining of new BTC. This is why I think the Proof of Stake model has better long-term viability.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10865 on: May 06, 2024, 09:49:20 PM »
Perhaps - whilst a lot more miners are part of mining pools giving the appearance of centralization, they are still separate and individual entities. Basically, we should see independent miners pop up wherever energy can be most efficiently harvested. Lets see. Its an interesting area keep an eye on.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10866 on: May 07, 2024, 09:28:18 AM »
The miner narrative will get tested. Energy cost doesn’t force up price.

If energy cost calls for 120k price for miners to break even but we don’t get that price, miners are forced to exit and difficulty adjusts to make it easier and higher reward.

Miners are now also getting good fees from Bitcoin  L2s, ordinal, inscriptions, runes etc. Break even isn't as simple to calculate as before.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10867 on: May 07, 2024, 04:57:40 PM »
Perhaps - whilst a lot more miners are part of mining pools giving the appearance of centralization, they are still separate and individual entities. Basically, we should see independent miners pop up wherever energy can be most efficiently harvested. Lets see. Its an interesting area keep an eye on.

Efficiency looks for centralisation. I have no problem with this but the BTC maxis do.

The reality is after China left mining the Us went from 3% to 35% hash rate. Only Russia is left keeping the US from likely having total control of the network.

But if number goes up, nobody really cares about their privacy. If Russia are squeezed out then it’s going to be interesting what the US govt do once they own the network. Hence I think the narrative  is the US will peg to BTC the new world Reserve currency is one the masses will accept if this happens and rally behind it.

Again, I couldn’t care less, send the number up lol. But anyone who cares for privacy I am saying if they hold BTC they are lying, they only care about number up otherwise you’d use cash.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10868 on: May 08, 2024, 01:23:11 AM »
Any price for BTC is possible as things like recession and stagflation are still on the table, but so are soft or no landing albeit looking less likely.

ETH ETF denial is mostly priced in so won't do much damage.

Looks like someone is trying to paint the BTC chart and manipulate sentiment. On the day CZ gets his sentence BTC dumps hard on no news and there is a huge net ETF outflow including iBit for the first time. Support lines are broken.

Now we get the opposite. Price pumping for no reason and GBTC has it's first net inflow day on the very day iBit was expected to takeover as the biggest BTC ETF. This could be a pump that keeps going especially if SPX plays nice for the rest of May (risk on is back)

I’m sticking with my Mar-Jul window. A liquidity event is due soon, mid year. BTC tops before S&P. The ETFs haven’t changed this, S&P is near ATH so why is BTC down near 62k if everything was going well?

I have Inflationary wave 2 starting this year, therefore we must have a deflationary event first. Election in November They need a quick hit to put downward pressure on Q3-Q4 inflation to justify the spending spree into Nov.

We already know retail will buy the dip to 42k.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10869 on: May 08, 2024, 01:55:30 AM »
Efficiency looks for centralisation. I have no problem with this but the BTC maxis do.

The reality is after China left mining the Us went from 3% to 35% hash rate. Only Russia is left keeping the US from likely having total control of the network.

But if number goes up, nobody really cares about their privacy. If Russia are squeezed out then it’s going to be interesting what the US govt do once they own the network. Hence I think the narrative  is the US will peg to BTC the new world Reserve currency is one the masses will accept if this happens and rally behind it.

Again, I couldn’t care less, send the number up lol. But anyone who cares for privacy I am saying if they hold BTC they are lying, they only care about number up otherwise you’d use cash.

BTC is mined globally and will be mined anywhere a rig can be attached to cheap energy. Here is a good heat map of global mining distribution.

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci/mining_map



Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10871 on: May 08, 2024, 06:29:56 AM »
https://cointelegraph.com/news/grayscale-withdraws-ethereum-futures-etf-application

Come on now bro. Don't just post this without providing your take on it.

Some are saying it bearish ETH (guessing you lean this way), some saying it could mean grayscale withdrew it cos they know the spot ETF is gonna get approved. Maybe not this month, but for the blackrock deadline. Some say it doesn't mean anything.


loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10872 on: May 08, 2024, 07:41:00 AM »
Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10873 on: May 08, 2024, 08:00:38 AM »
Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

It's only been a few weeks. Halving historically doesn't do anything for the price for the first 2 to 4 months after it. If anything the price drops.

Halving increases mining difficulty and typically this means a lot of bitcoin miners go out of business, but it's not an overnight process. Those unprofitable miners may hold mined bitcoins which they dump as the exit and this is the reason why there is often a big initial draw down after the halving.

Once they are all out of the picture and only profitable miners remain, the sell pressure from miners selling decreases significantly, so conditions for price appreciation is at its most favourable. The timeline is months, not days.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10874 on: May 08, 2024, 01:22:07 PM »
Halving came and went.  At what point can we say it did nothing for the price of bitcoin when many thought it would make it increase significantly?

If you look at the charts from the same periods in the past, it has behaved similarly.

Historically, there has been a dip followed by a period of consolidation before resuming the uptrend.