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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOdmmSL.Tu1M (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOdmmSL.Tu1M)
Obama Vows Wall Street Risk Regulation, Sees 10% Unemployment
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By Rich Miller and Julianna Goldman
June 16 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama chided Wall Street financiers for forgetting how close the U.S. economy came to collapsing and predicted that the nation’s unemployment rate would rise to 10 percent by the end of the year.
“Wall Street seems to maybe have a shorter memory about how close we were to the abyss than I would have expected,” Obama said, referring to criticism of the government’s growing role in the economy and markets. “All we’re doing is cleaning up after the mess that was made.”
In an interview with Bloomberg News on the eve of the release of his plans to revamp regulation of financial markets, Obama voiced confidence the economy would recover soon while warning that robust growth was needed if the U.S. is to rein in its budget deficit without raising taxes on most Americans.
“You’re starting to see the engines of the economy turn,” Obama said. Still, he said, “It’s going to take a long time” for a full-fledged recovery as households work off the debt accumulated during the real estate boom.
The jobless rate will continue to climb from its current 25-year high of 9.4 percent as employers are slow to take on new workers, the president said. “Jobs are a lagging indicator,” he said, while acknowledging he didn’t have “a crystal ball” to predict when the unemployment rate will start to decline.
Praise for Bernanke
Obama, 47, gave high marks to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for his role in fighting the financial crisis. Bernanke “has done an extraordinary job under extraordinary circumstances,” the president said during the interview in the East Room of the White House. He declined to say whether he would nominate Bernanke for another four-year term when his tenure runs out in January.
While expressing confidence in the long-term prospects for the economy, the president stressed the necessity of making tough reforms, including overhauling the health-care system, to generate the strong growth needed to reduce the budget deficit.
He left open the possibility he would have to raise taxes on most Americans to decrease the deficit if growth were weak. He also indicated he might tax the most-expensive employer- provided benefits to help pay for his health-care overhaul. Both would reverse pledges he made during the campaign.
“If we are growing at a robust rate, then we can pay for the government that we need without having to raise taxes,” Obama said. “If we’ve got anemic growth, if we don’t have a strategy for recovery without bubbles, which is essentially what we’ve had over the last couple of recovery cycles, then we’re going to continue to have problems.”
Campaign Pledge
The president has repeatedly said he would keep his campaign pledge to cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans while rolling back tax breaks for households making more than $250,000 a year.
Obama also stood firmly during his campaign against taxing employer-provided health-care benefits, a proposal gaining traction among Senate Democrats to pay for a $1 trillion health-care overhaul.
He said he preferred other means of funding the legislation, including reducing itemized deductions for the wealthiest Americans and focusing on cutting health-care costs.
Still, he said, “Congress is having a vigorous debate on the Hill, and I don’t want to predetermine the best way to do this.”
Waiting on Congress
“I’ve already put forward what I think is the best way, but let me see what comes out of the Hill, and we’ll have that debate then,” Obama said.
The president tomorrow will unveil his proposal for revamping financial regulation, an effort likely to result in the most sweeping overhaul since the 1930s. Many of the changes must be approved by Congress, where jurisdictional and ideological clashes may alter the shape of final legislation. Obama wants to sign the law by year-end.
Crafted by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers, Obama’s plan would put the Federal Reserve in charge of regulating companies whose collapse could damage the entire financial system. It would also create a new agency for overseeing consumer financial products, such as mortgages and credit cards.
“We now need some sensible rules of the road so that people aren’t taking exorbitant risks,” Obama said.
Relying on Market
The president also said he’d like the government, which lent billions of dollars to shore up banks, insurers and companies, to get out of the economy when it can.
“As soon as this economy has stabilized, we want the market to do what it does best, and that is produce jobs, invest,” he said.
The president brushed aside concerns that the recent rise in Treasury bond yields would stifle a budding economic recovery by pushing up borrowing costs for homebuyers. The 10- year Treasury note yield has increased 0.57 percentage point since May 14.
Obama said Treasury yields are rising because investors have grown “more confident that we may have avoided the very worst scenarios” for the economy and financial markets and are putting their money into investments with higher returns.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 15 percent since Obama’s Jan. 20 inauguration, compared with a decline of 9.6 percent in the first five months of George W. Bush’s administration and an increase of 3 percent under Bill Clinton. Corporate bonds have returned 11.5 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data, and companies have sold about $680 billion of debt, a record pace, Bloomberg data show.
The president said his plan to re-regulate the financial system would include a “systemic regulator” to oversee the “entire financial system” and catch risky activity “before the crisis occurs.”
“Right now, you’ve got an entire shadow system of enormous risk,” Obama said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Rich Miller in Washington at rmiller28@bloomberg.net; Julianna Goldman in Washington at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net
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Some real good stuff in there. Read it all and take it all in, gentlemen. Lots of reversals and hanging on to campaign pledges long broken. It's almost funny when you read his bullshit and compare it to what he has been saying.
U.E. will go up to 10%....
He doesn't have a "crystal ball" to predict when unemployment will begin to fall. This is funny because he had a crystal ball when he had to sell us the Porkulus Bill......
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Big deal. We were predicting 10% unemployment back in January. Obama is just giving you the economic reality that is the fallout of the financial crisis.
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Big deal. We were predicting 10% unemployment back in January. Obama is just giving you the economic reality that is the fallout of the financial crisis.
But what about the Stimulus Bill? Wasn't that supposed to solve all of our problems?
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But what about the Stimulus Bill? Wasn't that supposed to solve all of our problems?
where did obama say it would be solved in 4 months?
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But what about the Stimulus Bill? Wasn't that supposed to solve all of our problems?
Where is that quote from? I must have missed it.
where did obama say it would be solved in 4 months?
;)
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LATE AGAIN OBAMA...Late again...THe numbers already surpass 10 percent...
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LATE AGAIN OBAMA...Late again...THe numbers already surpass 10 percent...
The rate was 9.4% in May.
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The rate was 9.4% in May.
Too bad this is June.
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Too bad this is June.
Right, and on June 17th we don't have the unemployment numbers for the month dummy.
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The rate was 9.4% in May.
9.4% is what the government will tell you...I should not have to repeat this but it is necessary, this is the same government that kept telling the american people that they were not in a recession even though they had already been in one for TWO YEARS!!!. Do you think they will tell you the real unemployment numbers, which easily have surpassed ten percent and I would say hover around 20 or so percent....if not more.
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9.4% is what the government will tell you...I should not have to repeat this but it is necessary, this is the same government that kept telling the american people that they were not in a recession even though they had already been in one for TWO YEARS!!!. Do you think they will tell you the real unemployment numbers, which easily have surpassed ten percent and I would say hover around 20 or so percent....if not more.
Didn't the administration say that the unemployment rate wouldn't go above 9? Wasn't that what the stimulus was supposed to do? How can people be cool with obama saying its going to go to ten, when he told us it wouldn't go above 9?
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Big deal. We were predicting 10% unemployment back in January. Obama is just giving you the economic reality that is the fallout of the financial crisis.
Bullshit - Obama predicted that without the stimulus bill the max it would reach would be 8.8%. Do you want the graph???
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Bullshit - Obama predicted that without the stimulus bill the max it would reach would be 8.8%. Do you want the graph???
Where did I say Obama predicted 10% inflation, FAT MAN? Read my quote again...s-l-o-w-l-y.
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Where did I say Obama predicted 10% inflation, FAT MAN? Read my quote again...s-l-o-w-l-y.
We are talking UE you hack.
Obama was dead wrong on this and even Biden admitted it.
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where did obama say it would be solved in 4 months?
Dow is well above 8500.
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Where did I say Obama predicted 10% inflation, FAT MAN? Read my quote again...s-l-o-w-l-y.
FLAIL and FAIL.
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where did obama say it would be solved in 4 months?
Obama promised that if his plan was passed unemployment would not go over 8%.HE HAS FAILED!!!!The plan has failed!!!!!
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Obama promised that if his plan was passed unemployment would not go over 8%.HE HAS FAILED!!!!The plan has failed!!!!!
Billy:
Check this out. These are the actual results vs. the predictions.
http://politicalmath.wordpress.com/2009/06/07/the-obama-stimulus-predictions-vs-reality/
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Anyone that believes anything coming from this admin has to be retarded at this point. The part about praising Bernenke was really cute too. ::)
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It's the same crap Obama has done from day one. Set the stage for the crisis, and then push some bullshit through to get what he wants. Then once he gets what he wants, he back tracks with the we did everything we could but we are still fucked.
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It's the same crap Obama has done from day one. Set the stage for the crisis, and then push some bullshit through to get what he wants. Then once he gets what he wants, he back tracks with the we did everything we could but we are still fucked.
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Where did I say Obama predicted 10% inflation, FAT MAN? Read my quote again...s-l-o-w-l-y.
Please prove me wrong on this.
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It's the same crap Obama has done from day one. Set the stage for the crisis, and then push some bullshit through to get what he wants. Then once he gets what he wants, he back tracks with the we did everything we could but we are still fucked.
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Dow is well above 8500.
What's that have to do with this thread?
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What's that have to do with this thread?
ask 240
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FLAIL and FAIL.
What does this mean? Are you feigning knowledge on this subject again? ::)
Obama promised that if his plan was passed unemployment would not go over 8%.HE HAS FAILED!!!!The plan has failed!!!!!
LOL
OK, "BILLY." ::)
Anyone that believes anything coming from this admin has to be retarded at this point. The part about praising Bernenke was really cute too. ::)
You have to actually KNOW SOMETHING about a subject to believe what you hear. Perhaps that is your problem. Or we could just assume you are not very bright and still stuck in a bubble where all you hear is what's playing in the Paul Ron fella's bubble. :-\
It's the same crap Obama has done from day one. Set the stage for the crisis, and then push some bullshit through to get what he wants. Then once he gets what he wants, he back tracks with the we did everything we could but we are still fucked.
Try making sense before you post, otherwise you are a waste of bandwidth.
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What does this mean? Are you feigning knowledge on this subject again? ::)
LOL
OK, "BILLY." ::)
You have to actually KNOW SOMETHING about a subject to believe what you hear. Perhaps that is your problem. Or we could just assume you are not very bright and still stuck in a bubble where all you hear is what's playing in the Paul Ron fella's bubble. :-\
Try making sense before you post, otherwise you are a waste of bandwidth.
Speaking of bubbles, maybe your heros can find another one to inflate.
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Speaking of bubbles, maybe your heros can find another one to inflate.
What bubble are you referring to, exactly?
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What bubble are you referring to, exactly?
You're the genius, figure it out. ::)
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You're the genius, figure it out. ::)
Notice how Benny is silent about those clips i posted????
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You're the genius, figure it out. ::)
Great answer! :-\ I expected nothing less.
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Unemployment wasn't supposed to be over 8% with the stimulus. The administration was obviously wrong on that.
Obama specifically said he wouldn't raise taxes on 95% of Americans. Looks like he is setting the stage to raise taxes. We have already seen tax increase on certain goods and services and a host of new taxes proposed.
If you guys look at his health care ideas (I know its not complete yet) but they are proposing new taxation on health benefits, which they said they would not do and they are considering providing coverage for only certain people (that make up to a certain amount per household). Its bullshit. Cover all or don't nationalize healthcare!!
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What does this mean? Are you feigning knowledge on this subject again? ::)
LOL
OK, "BILLY." ::)
You have to actually KNOW SOMETHING about a subject to believe what you hear. Perhaps that is your problem. Or we could just assume you are not very bright and still stuck in a bubble where all you hear is what's playing in the Paul Ron fella's bubble. :-\
Try making sense before you post, otherwise you are a waste of bandwidth.
It makes perfect sense, your just to punch drunk on the Obama koolaid to see it you assclown
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Great answer! :-\ I expected nothing less.
Then why ask me dicknose?
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Unemployment wasn't supposed to be over 8% with the stimulus. The administration was obviously wrong on that.
Obama specifically said he wouldn't raise taxes on 95% of Americans. Looks like he is setting the stage to raise taxes. We have already seen tax increase on certain goods and services and a host of new taxes proposed.
If you guys look at his health care ideas (I know its not complete yet) but they are proposing new taxation on health benefits, which they said they would not do and they are considering providing coverage for only certain people (that make up to a certain amount per household). Its bullshit. Cover all or don't nationalize healthcare!!
I am in the financial analysis/portfolio management business. We knew when we did our projections (as did many others of course) that the administration was low balling the unemployment estimates when drawing up the stimulus plans. Believe me, they have some of the smartest minds related to things financial in this administration, which means they had their reasons. Double digit unemployment was a forgone conclusion by mid January. You can hardly pin that on the Obama administration or its policies.
The health care plan is FAR from done, and the president is still considering opposing ideas. You can rest assured though, that universal health care is Obama's overriding goal. What's "bullshit" is your premise that he is looking for ways to not include people. Nonsense. The premise the administration is starting with is a public-private plan, where you can keep your existing coverage if you actually like it, or you can opt into a public plan that will in all likelihood be more affordable. This forces the insurance companies to have to compete for once, bringing down costs across the board.
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Then why ask me dicknose?
"Dicknose???" Dude, you come up with the lamest comebacks. Just be yourself and don't try so hard. :-\
I asked you for my own amusement. I enjoy seeing how little you appear to know when you try so hard to know so much.
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"Dicknose???" Dude, you come up with the lamest comebacks. Just be yourself and don't try so hard. :-\
I asked you for my own amusement. I enjoy seeing how little you appear to know when you try so hard to know so much.
Ok, "dummy". ::)
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Jobless Benefit Rolls Post First Drop In Months
AP, June 18, 2009 · The total number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls dropped for the first time since early January, the government said Thursday, while new claims for benefits rose slightly.
The Labor Department said the total unemployment insurance rolls fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week ending June 6 — the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline may be a sign that layoffs are easing.
The drop also breaks a string of 21 straight increases in continuing claims, the last 19 of which were records. A dip in continuing claims several weeks ago was later revised higher.
The department also said initial claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 608,000 last week, above analysts' expectations. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell by 7,000 to 615,750. Continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.
The drop in continuing claims could signal a slowing in the rise of the unemployment rate, which reached a 25-year high of 9.4 percent in May. Many economists forecast the rate could reach 10 percent by the end of the year.
Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended by the Obama administration's stimulus package.
About 2.36 million people received benefits under that program in the week ending May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. That's in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the 26-week program typically provided by states.
Economists also are closely watching the level of first-time claims for signs the economy will recover by mid-summer, as many analysts predict.
"If the labor market is indeed stabilizing, we should see a marked decline in new unemployment filings in the weeks ahead," economists at Wrightson ICAP wrote in a note to clients this week.
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I am in the financial analysis/portfolio management business. We knew when we did our projections (as did many others of course) that the administration was low balling the unemployment estimates when drawing up the stimulus plans. Believe me, they have some of the smartest minds related to things financial in this administration, which means they had their reasons. Double digit unemployment was a forgone conclusion by mid January. You can hardly pin that on the Obama administration or its policies.
The health care plan is FAR from done, and the president is still considering opposing ideas. You can rest assured though, that universal health care is Obama's overriding goal. What's "bullshit" is your premise that he is looking for ways to not include people. Nonsense. The premise the administration is starting with is a public-private plan, where you can keep your existing coverage if you actually like it, or you can opt into a public plan that will in all likelihood be more affordable. This forces the insurance companies to have to compete for once, bringing down costs across the board.
Uh...I'm going to believe the DOCTOR when it comes to nationalizing healthcare, thank you for your time Mr. Manager. The administration didn't "low ball" the numbers...they lied. If they knew about them and told us a different number then the American people was lied to again. So much for "transparency".
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Jobless Benefit Rolls Post First Drop In Months
AP, June 18, 2009 · The total number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls dropped for the first time since early January, the government said Thursday, while new claims for benefits rose slightly.
The Labor Department said the total unemployment insurance rolls fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week ending June 6 — the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline may be a sign that layoffs are easing.
The drop also breaks a string of 21 straight increases in continuing claims, the last 19 of which were records. A dip in continuing claims several weeks ago was later revised higher.
The department also said initial claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 608,000 last week, above analysts' expectations. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell by 7,000 to 615,750. Continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.
The drop in continuing claims could signal a slowing in the rise of the unemployment rate, which reached a 25-year high of 9.4 percent in May. Many economists forecast the rate could reach 10 percent by the end of the year.
Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended by the Obama administration's stimulus package.
About 2.36 million people received benefits under that program in the week ending May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. That's in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the 26-week program typically provided by states.
Economists also are closely watching the level of first-time claims for signs the economy will recover by mid-summer, as many analysts predict.
"If the labor market is indeed stabilizing, we should see a marked decline in new unemployment filings in the weeks ahead," economists at Wrightson ICAP wrote in a note to clients this week.
________________________ ________________________ ___________________
The department also said initial claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 608,000 last week, above analysts' expectations. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell by 7,000 to 615,750. Continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.
From your own article.
UE is still rising. The only difference now is that people are losing jobs at a slower rate. The UE is likely to go above 10% and stay there for a long time.
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Maybe they did purposely lowball the estimate but that means they lied to the American people.
As far as the healthcare issue, we must wait to see what the ultimate plan looks like. Correct, they are still debating, but one of the leading ideas is to tax health care benefits, which Obama was against in the election. Also, they are considering government ran health care for people that make up to a certain amount per household...thats what I think it bullshit. Either offer it to everyone or no one. I am sick of this adminstration proposing ideas that penalyze upper middle income people. One of the ideas was to offer the plan to households that make $80,000 & less. That is absolutely middle class. This administration is clearly favoring low and low middle income earners, which is not fair. So, people pay taxes and aren't going to be offered the healthcare? Thats ridiculous. Hope that idea gets thrown out.
Also, having a government system vs private health care has the potential to ruin private systems. I need to see more in depth analysis on this but everything in medicine that the gov has ran so far has been inefficient and going bankrupt. Also, if you don't have the government plan (or its not offered to you), why would you be forced to pay for it with your tax dollars? It just sounds like more of the same proposals from Obama...bigger gov, more oversight with more layers of management, more programs and more taxation to pay for it.
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Maybe they did purposely lowball the estimate but that means they lied to the American people.
As far as the healthcare issue, we must wait to see what the ultimate plan looks like. Correct, they are still debating, but one of the leading ideas is to tax health care benefits, which Obama was against in the election. Also, they are considering government ran health care for people that make up to a certain amount per household...thats what I think it bullshit. Either offer it to everyone or no one. I am sick of this adminstration proposing ideas that penalyze upper middle income people. One of the ideas was to offer the plan to households that make $80,000 & less. That is absolutely middle class. This administration is clearly favoring low and low middle income earners, which is not fair. So, people pay taxes and aren't going to be offered the healthcare? Thats ridiculous. Hope that idea gets thrown out.
Also, having a government system vs private health care has the potential to ruin private systems. I need to see more in depth analysis on this but everything in medicine that the gov has ran so far has been inefficient and going bankrupt. Also, if you don't have the government plan (or its not offered to you), why would you be forced to pay for it with your tax dollars? It just sounds like more of the same proposals from Obama...bigger gov, more oversight, more programs and more taxation to pay for it.
Exactly...I'm so tired of more government. It is uncalled for.
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Uh...I'm going to believe the DOCTOR when it comes to nationalizing healthcare, thank you for your time Mr. Manager. The administration didn't "low ball" the numbers...they lied. If they knew about them and told us a different number then the American people was lied to again. So much for "transparency".
It's not a question of "lying." ::) You can't lie about a forecast.
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It's not a question of "lying." ::) You can't lie about a forecast.
Since when?
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But Benny, they used the prediction to sell us on the biggest injection of taxpayor money in the history of this country...so its at least deception. They told us the only way to keep unemployment from rising about 8% was to pass the stimulus, or else unemployment would go higher. They created a lot of urgency without detailed evaluation of the actual plan. There are smart people that worked on the plan and smart people that said it was a bad idea...just as their are smart liberals and smart conservative. Its just a difference of opinion in direction.
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The department also said initial claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 608,000 last week, above analysts' expectations. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell by 7,000 to 615,750. Continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.
From your own article.
UE is still rising. The only difference now is that people are losing jobs at a slower rate. The UE is likely to go above 10% and stay there for a long time.
It's only slowing because the pool is draining. These revised numbers always go up but people still jump for joy when they first come out. Back in Oct and Nov, they were off by 200,000.
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Since when?
I'd like to know too.
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It's only slowing because the pool is draining. These revised numbers always go up but people still jump for joy when they first come out. Back in Oct and Nov, they were off by 200,000.
Go read that article I sent Neuro about the 75 year cycle on the Dow thread. Neuro said he agreed with a lot of it.
10% UE is nothing compared to where we are heading.
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Go read that article I sent Neuro about the 75 year cycle on the Dow thread. Neuro said he agreed with a lot of it.
10% UE is nothing compared to where we are heading.
Check out Shadowstats, he thinks unemplyment is at 20%.
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Check out Shadowstats, he thinks unemplyment is at 20%.
The lies that are being told by the govt are incredible.
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I guess unemployment will peak at 10-12% but the issue is that I don't see the economy recovering quickly or growing at the same rates that it had. Also worry about inflation and continued devaluation of the dollar (certainly a real concern with this administration). The more we move toward socialistic policies, cap & trade, higher taxes, etc...the more this will hurt our businesses and overall GDP.