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The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever
Henry Blodget | Jan. 10, 2010, 5:18 PM | 3,709 | 25
WWW.BUSINESSINSIDER.COM
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PrintTags: Economy, Employment, Jobs, Recession
This chart from Calculated Risk shows the decline in jobs as a percentage of the work force at the peak.
To date in this recession, we've lost more than 8 million jobs. The decline as a percentage of the workforce is the worst since the Great Depression, matching the sharp but short drop in 1948, as the war machine wound down.
Equally important, the duration of these job losses, as well as the lack of a sharp recovery (at least so far), suggests that the problem will be with us for a long while. We're now 24 months into this decline, and we're still at the bottom. By this point in most previous recessions, we had already recovered all of the lost jobs.
Here's Calculated Risk:
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost). The current employment recession is the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).
Note: The total jobs lost does not include the annual benchmark payroll revision that will be announced on February 5, 2010. The preliminary estimate is for a downward revision of 824,000 jobs - pushing the total jobs lost over 8 million.
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Celente is right we ar going from recession to depression.
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yikes - that is a serious indictment on the "perfect system" capitalism
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yikes - that is a serious indictment on the "perfect system" capitalism
We dont have anything remotely even approching capitilism. We currently live in a economic fascist state by definition.
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fear not... gold bubble will burst, dollar will recover.
Confidence will come back when this happens.
In nov, FOX news says "We won back 21 seats in the House and 3 in senate! WE WON!" and repubs will pat themselves on the back long enough to lose their fire, allowing obama to cakewalk in 2012.
Libs will get their healthcare bill, Obama will have a few PR wins, maybe kill some bad guys.
And nothing will change. Everything will keep on keeping on.
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Time to get a job in law enforcement. ::)
Definately in Yonkers, NY. The bullies w badges are all well over 100k a year an insane benes.
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they'll claim a win if it passes. Yeah, it's only a 60% win... but it's something Clinton failed at.
If it doesn't pass, ya know damn well the Gop will claim a major victory. So you have to let the left call it a win if it passes.
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This book has blown my mind so far on economics. I am still libertarian in my views 100%, but this book truly exposes just how screwed we are w the govt and banks doing eachs others bidding.
Its depressing to the nth degree, but revealing just how bad it really is.
I just finished the part about how the public was scammed into supporting WW1 by Wilson after the Lusitania sinking and am very pissed off!
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newsflash... Libs didn't and won't get their healhcare bill. The Insurance companies got their bill. You can't show me where libs are happy with this bill whatsoever.
And Big Pharma. Barry wasn't able to get his re importation amendments through. I still have no idea if they pass this bill, what's going to keep costs in check?
As for the libs supporting it? Well, they're the ones pushing it through. Although I agree in the sense that the liberal base of voters don't support it and that may come back to bite these politicians in the ass. Hopefully!
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We dont have anything remotely even approching capitilism. We currently live in a economic fascist state by definition.
You use the term "currently". When was the last time that capitialism was at work? Did the introduction of the federal treasury start the fascist part of capitialism? Whats your veiw of this 33?
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yeha, but liberals melt over anything, just like the far-right people.
Rational people in the middle will see a 60% bill and give him a "B" grade.
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You use the term "currently". When was the last time that capitialism was at work? Did the introduction of the federal treasury start the fascist part of capitialism? Whats your veiw of this 33?
To a degree, but definately once the govt went away from the gold standard as far as monetary policy goes.
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no they're not. You guys can't see the divide between the liberal base and what dems/Obama are doing? As it is now, this is not what libs wanted whatsoever. Will Dems stand up there and applaud it as a victory for the people? Yup... Does that have anything to do with what liberals are disgusted with? nope.... This isn't what liberals/progressives wanted. Are pundits playing it up as having postitive sides, better than nothing... yup, that's what they're paid to do.
Most Democrats(politicians) are not libs, most of them are tools of the highest bidder, just like republicans. Liberals have been screaming mad about the direction of this bill for many months. Have they listened to their base? Nope.........
Hugo - my beefs with the bill are exactly what ou will read on DU or Hff. This thing is not about lib/con its about horrible policy!
Skip - BARRY NEVER WANTED REIMPORTATION!
I posted numerous articles that this was the deal he cut in the WH in order to get their support. He never even tried!
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i dont claim to be an expert on the bill. Are you saying poor folks will not benefit at all from it?
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i dont claim to be an expert on the bill. Are you saying poor folks will not benefit at all from it?
1. Time to take your own advice and focus on issues not Sarah. Start with reading my threads on HCR
2. Just because some "poor" get helped does not justify screwing over everyone else to benefit the insurance carriers and drug companies.
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I think I just realized something. Could be wrong but I think Obama will run again and will win. How can someone blatantly piss all over their base, treat them like they're stupid and think he can get away with it? Only if that's the plan/promise........ I suspect he'll be running against some extreme far right evangelical or something. Libs will say, I'm pissed but fuck that and vote for Obama. If not, if i'm wrong thinking this, the green party will have a big showing in the next election.
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Skip - BARRY NEVER WANTED REIMPORTATION!
I posted numerous articles that this was the deal he cut in the WH in order to get their support. He never even tried!
He did want it, he did try, but in the end he sold out to Big Pharma like a cheap red district bitch...
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He did want it, he did try, but in the end he sold out to Big Pharma like a cheap red district bitch...
Skip - he really never tied on this. He simply asked every special interest what they wanted and gave it to them carte blanche.
Dorgan put it in the amendment and its getting dropped by the WH. Many think Dorgan is retiring due to this sell out.
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i dont claim to be an expert on the bill. Are you saying poor folks will not benefit at all from it?
I'm sure some people will find something in this. By far, from what I see, the benefit goes to Big Pharma and the Insurance Companies and a lot of people will get screwed. The point being, this isn't what liberals wanted and seeing it as the big payday for the companies screwing everyone over sure in the hell is not what liberals wanted. Hell no they are not happy with it and many are steaming mad about it. Will those libs call it a victory? haha... no way... That was the point.
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He did want it, he did try, but in the end he sold out to Big Pharma like a cheap red district bitch...
no, actually at the start he sold out. 333 and others posted on way way way back... I might have even posted on it back then. We saw this result coming months ago. Oh and sorry, I didn't read the last line of your post above that I replied to. I should have because I wouldn't have posted the same. jumped the gun lol..
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386 I thought you were against the public option?
anyways, the bill is blocked by a unified GOP and a couple of sell out democrats.
Nobody is able to give a good reason not to include a public option.
Something to compete with big insurance. Keep premiums down.
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We dont have anything remotely even approching capitilism. We currently live in a economic fascist state by definition.
I have to agree.
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I have to agree.
So I guess Wal-Mart is a Communist invention then?
Some of you have really weird definitions of what Capitalism or Communism is.
Could it perhaps be that there's been free flowing Capitalism without any regulations that got us where we are?
that the corporations have been allowed to own the politicians?
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So I guess Wal-Mart is a Communist invention then?
Some of you have really weird definitions of what Capitalism or Communism is.
Could it perhaps be that there's been free flowing Capitalism without any regulations that got us where we are?
that the corporations have been allowed to own the politicians?
how did you get from 3333's post and gcb's reply to this? lol...
What are you drinking over there today? If it's that good, I'll import me some :P
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So I guess Wal-Mart is a Communist invention then?
Some of you have really weird definitions of what Capitalism or Communism is.
Could it perhaps be that there's been free flowing Capitalism without any regulations that got us where we are?
that the corporations have been allowed to own the politicians?
Are you out of your freaking mind Hedge?
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I admit to being totally lost by his post too. lol..... I was thinking, where in the what the who-when-huh?
We have miliions and zillions and regulations, which are all steered and crafted in a way that benefits those that lobby the politicians most.
Anyone who thinks lack of regulation is our problem is truly mistaken. If we had lack of regulation and a true free market, GS, AIG, BOA would be gone.
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TrimTabs: Here's How A Flawed Holiday Seasonal Adjustment Made The Jobs Data Look Way Better Than The Reality
Joe Weisenthal | Jan. 11, 2010, 5:32 AM | 784 | 6
PrintTags: Economy, Employment, Jobs
www.businessinsider.com
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Last month, when the October employment numbers came out looking good, a number of commenters rushed to slam the number, and argue why it was totally distorted.
On Friday, the November numbers came out looking pretty weak, and they were still bad. And yet critics are doing the same -- arguing that however bad they looked, in reality they were much worse.
TrimTabs is the market research firm that always complains about BLS methodology, and they usualy home in on the birth-death issue (the estimate for the creation of new businesses that the government uses). Here's their latest broadside.
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Job Situation Worse than BLS Reports
TrimTabs’ Estimates more than 152,000 Jobs Lost in December, while BLS Reports Decline of 85,000
Gigantic Seasonal Adjustments and Mysterious “Birth/Death” Adjustment Distort BLS Data
TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed more than 150,000 jobs in December. While end-of-month calendar quirks and unknown December bonus payments prevented a precise job loss estimate, there was enough data to suggest that job losses were at best 150,000 and at worst as high as 200,000.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy lost 85,000 jobs in December. They revised their October and November results down 123,000 jobs, resulting in a 39% labor market improvement relative to their preliminary results.
We believe the BLS is underestimating current job losses due to flawed seasonal adjustments and a mysterious “birth/death” adjustment. In our opinion, the BLS is doing the public a huge disservice because while its results point to recovering economy, TrimTabs’ results point to a dangerously weak economy.
Flawed Seasonal Adjustments
Seasonal adjustments are designed to smooth out the regular ups and downs in employment over the course of a year. These adjustments assume a repetitive employment cycle and work reasonably well when the economy is growing at a steady pace year-after-year. However, when the economy turns, the seasonal adjustment methodology breaks down. In particular, the current economic downturn has persisted for almost two years and the seasonal adjustment methodology was never designed to address this type of environment.
The problem worsens during the holiday season because the BLS applies huge seasonal adjustments to account for the large number of temporary retail jobs added and then subtracted to payrolls. In the past three months, the BLS seasonal adjustments subtracted a staggering 3.5 million jobs from an adjusted job loss of 208,000. In January, when the seasonal adjustments are the largest of the year, the BLS will add anywhere from 2.0 to 2.3 million jobs to their survey results. In our opinion, applying a seasonal adjustment numbering in the millions, in order to report monthly job losses numbering in the tens of thousands, is a fool’s errand.
Mysterious Birth/Death Adjustment
The BLS applies a “birth/death” adjustment to its results that is nothing more than an educated guess about the number of jobs added or lost from business openings and business closings. In 2008 and 2009, the BLS’ “birth/death” adjustment added 904,000 and 882,000 jobs, respectively, for a total of 1.79 million. By way of comparison, in 2006 and 2007, the BLS’ “birth/death” adjustment added 964,000 and 1.13 million jobs, respectively. We find it highly unlikely that in 2008 and 2009, during the worst recession since the 1930’s, more businesses opened than closed netting 1.79 million jobs.
A comparison of TrimTabs’ employment results versus the BLS’ results from January 2008 through December 2009 is summarized below.
Source: TrimTabs Investment Research – www.trimtabs.com and Bureau of Labor Statistics – www.bls.com
Several other employment related statistics support Trimtabs’ conclusion that the labor market is weaker than what the BLS is reporting:
· Real-Time tax withholding data shows that wages and salaries declined an adjusted 4.1% y-o-y. While that is better than the average 5.0% y-o-y decline over the past several months, it is still singnaling significant labor market contraction.
· The TrimTabs Online Jobs Index reported lower online job availability in December
· The Monster Employment Index declined in December
· The employment component of the ISM Non-manufacturing Index was 44.0 in December, well below 50.0 which signals employment growth.
· Household employment fell by 589,000 in December as the labor force declined by 661,000
· The unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0% and the broadest measure of unemployment (U-6) pointed to a jobless rate of 17.3%
· The median duration of unemployment increased to 20.5 weeks in December, up from 20.2 weeks in November. At the end of December, a whopping 10.4 million people were collecting some form of unemployment insurance, up from 9.0 million at the beginning of November.
For a complete analysis of the current employment situation and economic conditions, refer to TrimTabs Weekly Macro Analysis published this coming Tuesday, January 12, 2010.
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yikes - that is a serious indictment on the "perfect system" capitalism
Just shut up already.
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capitalism is broken, bad... and nobody wants to step up and fix/mend it. Obama has not shown any sign of even being aware that there is a sickness.
Ha ha. He is part of the problem, not the solution since his primary backers are these gangsters.
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I admit to being totally lost by his post too. lol..... I was thinking, where in the what the who-when-huh?
They claim there is nothing resembling Capitalism in USA.
Wal-Mart is a classic example of a big international corporation who dominates many markets by offering cheap products and through huge volumes can offer low prices.
Once they're alone in a particular area they can raise the price.
Classic capitalism.
Now, once again, 386 and gcb claims that Capitalism doesn't exist in the USA.
IMHO, I'd rather say that it's Capitalism gone wrong and the regulations that should have been in place, they were instead allowed to be manipulated by the lobby organisations.
A big problem is the existing lobby system right now.
I don't even trust all of my own opinions anymore TBH.
Or at least, I acknowledge that the lobbyists are able to influence them a great deal. :-\
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Ha ha. He is part of the problem, not the solution since his primary backers are these gangsters.
I think you're fairly spot on.
He's a better bet than many others though IMO.
Or should I say - not as bad as most.
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I think you're fairly spot on.
He's a better bet than many others though IMO.
Or should I say - not as bad as most.
Ha ha. He is far worse! Do some damn research.