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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on January 07, 2011, 06:05:52 AM
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Another Big Miss: Just 103K New Jobs Created In December
Joe Weisenthal | Jan. 7, 2011, 8:30 AM | 1,475 | 25
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Bummer for the bulls!
Total new jobs were just 103K, well below the official estimates, and WELL below the whispers, which went as high as 300K.
Stocks are dropping. Gold is perking back up.
The interesting thing, though, is that the household survey, which has been typically weaker than the main report actually showed a jump in 297K.
The unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%.
Click here for ongoing updates.
Here's the full report form the BLS >
Background: This is it! After November's ugly jobs report, hopes are riding high, and estimates are for around 150-170K. But the "whisper" is a lot higher, and the markets may be bummed if the number comes just "in line" especially after that ridiculous 297K ADP number.
Some other numbers to watch:
08:30 US Hourly Earnings (Dec); consensus +0.1%
08:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Dec); consensus 34.3
08:30 US Unemployment Rate (Dec); consensus 9.7%
Also watch for any revisions to November numbers, which were ugly.
Meanwhile, stocks are up slightly, and gold is getting slammed.
Tags: Employment | Get Alerts for these topics » Short URL Share:
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/december-non-farm-payrolls-2011-1#ixzz1AMH0Wrwy
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Unemployment just appears to have dropped because there are fewer people participating. Participation rate is at 25 yr lows.
Not Seasonally adjusted NILF (not in labor force) Nov 2010 to Dec 2010 increased over 700,000.
Dec 2009 to Dec 2010 1.5 million.
Dec 2000 to Dec 2010 15.1 million.
This signals a long term job degradation. As out population increases fewer people are in the workforce. this increases pressure on social programs and decreases tax revenue (from income).
In other words...the Gallup unemployment report is the most accurate since it counts the people the BLS doesn't. It has U-6 at 20%.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/december-non-farm-payrolls-2011-1#ixzz1AMHneUUq
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I'm sure this is way to complicated for the average Hope & Changer to understand.
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In 2004, John Kerry said, “America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression...”
In 2006, Nancy Pelosi said, “The President has the worst jobs record since the Great Depression..
Ah, the good old days when unemployment was only 5%....
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What do you think is the real UE? 20%?
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In 2004, John Kerry said, “America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression...”
In 2006, Nancy Pelosi said, “The President has the worst jobs record since the Great Depression..
Ah, the good old days when unemployment was only 5%....
haha, funny that it has doubled since then and not a peep, except to blame the former admin. i wonder when 2012 rolls around if they will still say the same thing?
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These numbers are so stupid.
If we need 125k a month just to stay even, how does the official rate go dow by .4 % when they claim onl 130k jobs were created uless they are taking out hundreds of thousands from the workforce?
Only a complete idiot believes this nonsense.
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These numbers are so stupid.
If we need 125k a month just to stay even, how does the official rate go dow by .4 % when they claim onl 130k jobs were created uless they are taking out hundreds of thousands from the workforce?
Only a complete idiot believes this nonsense.
inflation is also non existent, some economic indicators even show deflation... :o
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inflation is also non existent, some economic indicators even show deflation... :o
Oh, you mean the so called 'basket" that does not include energy, local taxes, fees, or food?
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Oh, you mean the so called 'basket" that does not include energy, local taxes, fees, or food?
That's the one...
These economic indicators are a complete joke...The only people that take them serious are people in the securities industry.
The way the BLS acquires employment information is just laughable..
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I'm not even a math guy but can see how this des not add up in any real way.
If it takes 125k jobs a month to stay even, and they say that 130k jobs were created, how does the rate drop .4% considering the size of the labor force?
Seems like a total crock of shit to me unless they are just dropping hundreds of thousands from the people claiming to look for work.
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I'm not even a math guy but can see how this des not add up in any real way.
If it takes 125k jobs a month to stay even, and they say that 130k jobs were created, how does the rate drop .4% considering the size of the labor force?
Seems like a total crock of shit to me unless they are just dropping hundreds of thousands from the people claiming to look for work.
I think the only logical thing that could have happened was some people's unemployment benefits ran out..So they are no longer counted in the figures...
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In 2004, John Kerry said, “America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression...”
In 2006, Nancy Pelosi said, “The President has the worst jobs record since the Great Depression..
Ah, the good old days when unemployment was only 5%....
;D We're in this mess because people believed that crap. I cant beleive how horrible these numbers are!! And how the hell does the unemployment rate go down THAT much with so few jobs created? Fishy.
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Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2011 08:54 -0500
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/labor-force-participation-rate-drops-fresh-25-year-low-adjusted-unemployment-rate-117
Ben BernankeRealityUnemploym ent
While today's unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low. Assuming a reversion to the mean in the long-term average participation rate back to 66%, means that the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November, is in reality 157.6 million, a delta of 3.91 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%.
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33,
Was it bullshit when UE was at 5 or 6 percent... a decade back?
Or did nonbartisan BLS turn evil come 2009?
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And here comes Robert Gibbs, Jr. from the shadows to try to deflect attention from the failure that is Obama.
How anyone can defend this guy is beyond me.
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Anyone know how to post this graph? A cerain date seems to coincide with the downward trajectory there.
Anyone? Anyone?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/havenstein/Labor%20Force%20Participation%20Rate.png
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(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/havenstein/Labor%20Force%20Participation%20Rate.png)
If I didn't know any better I'd say that's right around the time a certain party took control of congress. :-X
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33,
Was it bullshit when UE was at 5 or 6 percent... a decade back?
Or did nonbartisan BLS turn evil come 2009?
Lets assume it was BS back then, its still undeniably far worse now since Pelosi took over congress, and Obama has been there now for 2 years and things havegotten progressivly worse.
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(http://www.expressyourmind.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/essentials-nancy-pelosi.jpg)
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Lets assume it was BS back then, its still undeniably far worse now since Pelosi took over congress, and Obama has been there now for 2 years and things havegotten progressivly worse.
No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.
We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.
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Lets assume it was BS back then, its still undeniably far worse now since Pelosi took over congress, and Obama has been there now for 2 years and things havegotten progressivly worse.
240 - do you agree with what I wrote?
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No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.
We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.
::)
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No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.
We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.
WTF has happened to you?
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No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.
We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.
You really are screwed up in the head.
The labor force participation shows the real number of what is going on and its still going down.
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Things are worse today than under Bush's best, no doubt about it.
But I do believe things are better than they were a year ago. 9.8 to 9.4 UE. Improvement.
Unless we can prove CBO or BLS is lying... it's just supposing and CTs.
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Things are worse today than under Bush's best, no doubt about it.
But I do believe things are better than they were a year ago. 9.8 to 9.4 UE. Improvement.
Unless we can prove CBO or BLS is lying... it's just supposing and CTs.
240 - I really used to think you were smarter than this, but you really are not. Sad bro.
They are counting less people as looking for a job and overally lss and less people are working because they have given up or are now off the UR rolls since benes expired.
How the hell do you have an MBA?
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thank you for details on how the counting methods have changed. Now that we've gotten past "240 what the hell is wrong with you" and you've answered the Q, I can see some validity to your argument.
When you start things with "you have lost your mind", people are less receptive to whatever you say next. I suspect its the same sharp edged approach to winning moderates (employed by many republicans) that still has obama sitting pretty at 50% on gallup.
Simply put, republicans treat people like shit, rub their noses in any argument, insult them, then wonder why they defend obama even when they konw he's wrong. Because obama treats then with respect, and far-right voices call anyone who has ever watered a flower or donated to the Salvation Army a shitbag lib who hates the country.
There's a small % of liberal in everyone. And when you use that term so wildly and associate it with treason.... well... Obama's still at 50%, ain't he? ;)
So bravo for making your point. Less edge and you might convert some people :)
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http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2011-01-07-bernan...
Fed boss: It will take years for jobs to come back
By Jeannine Aversa
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Friday that there's increasing evidence that a "self-sustaining" economic recovery is taking hold, but he said the Fed's $600 billion Treasury bond-buying program is still needed because it will take years for unemployment to drop to more normal levels.
In testimony prepared for the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke said the economy should grow more strongly this year as consumers and businesses boost their spending.
But he said even with the expected improvements, it could still take four to five years for unemployment to drop to a historically normal rate around 6%.
Bernanke spoke just after the government released a disappointing employment report. Employers added only 103,000 jobs in December. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, but that was partly because people gave up looking for work. The report suggested slow healing in the jobs market. Many economists expected much bigger job gains...
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You've all lost your minds!
I bought an Ipod for 99 dollars the other day so inflation is non existant. My loaf of bread was 4 dollars and my gallon of milk was 3 and gas in my tank is now 3.40 but the numbers reported tell me that there is actually not enough inflation.
All is well!
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Paid 3.47 yesterday.
And 240 - please bro - we expect better from you.
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They say perceptions of inflation are often skewed from reality because there is inflation in only certain items and most people buy only certain items. If what you buy is only what is inflated you are going to think inflation has hit. My own personal experience suggests that while inflation certainly is not here yet for me, prices really dont seem like they are as low as they should be given the horrible employment numbers.
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They say perceptions of inflation are often skewed from reality because there is inflation in only certain items and most people buy only certain items. If what you buy is only what is inflated you are going to think inflation has hit. My own personal experience suggests that while inflation certainly is not here yet for me, prices really dont seem like they are as low as they should be given the horrible employment numbers.
Problem is that the items people are FORCED to buy are going up.
Food
Energy
Taxes
Health Care
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No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.
We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.
PLEASE!!!! They're cooking the books. They're no longer counting people WHO ARE STILL JOBLESS but have quit filing.
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I'm not even a math guy but can see how this des not add up in any real way.
If it takes 125k jobs a month to stay even, and they say that 130k jobs were created, how does the rate drop .4% considering the size of the labor force?
Seems like a total crock of shit to me unless they are just dropping hundreds of thousands from the people claiming to look for work.
That's exactly what they're doing.
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U.S. Adds 103,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment at 9.4%
By Bob Willis - Jan 7, 2011 Employers in the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast in December, confirming Federal Reserve Chairman
Ben S. Bernanke’s view that it will take years for the labor market to heal.
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
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Payrolls increased 103,000, compared with the median forecast of 150,000 in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Employment the prior two months rose more than initially estimated. The jobless rate fell to 9.4 percent, partly reflecting a shrinking workforce.
Faster job growth is needed to keep consumers spending and ensure a self-sustaining recovery in the world’s largest economy. Bernanke, in Senate testimony an hour after the report, said it may take four or five years for the labor market to “normalize fully,” indicating no change in the Fed’s plans to pump $600 billion into the financial system.
“We’re moving in the right direction, but we won’t get out of the hole anytime soon,” said Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “For the Fed, it means steady as she goes.”
Stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 0.3 percent to 1,270.04 at 11:08 a.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined to 3.35 percent from 3.40 percent late yesterday.
Estimates for the change in payrolls among 78 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ranged from 98,000 to 240,000. The median climbed from 140,000 at the start of the week after projections from ADP Employer Services showed companies boosted employment by 297,000 workers last month.
Unemployment Forecasts
The unemployment rate was forecast to fall to 9.7 percent from 9.8 percent, according to the median prediction of 73 economists. Estimates ranged from 9.5 percent to 9.9 percent.
“It’s about what we expected,” Bernanke said of today’s Labor Department data in response to questions from the Senate Budget Committee. “If we continue at this pace we’re not going to see sustained declines in the unemployment rate.”
For all of 2010, about 1.1 million jobs were created, the most since 2006. The jobless rate averaged 9.6 percent, the highest since 1983 and up from 9.3 percent a year earlier. With today’s report, the Labor Department revised figures from its household survey used in calculating the unemployment rate going back five years. Benchmark revisions to the payroll data will be announced in February.
Retailers Hiring
Retailers and automakers are among industries hiring.
Dollar General Corp., the biggest of the U.S. dollar discount stores, plans to add 6,000 jobs as it opens 625 more stores in fiscal 2011. By the end of 2011, the Goodlettsville, Tennessee-based discounter said last month it will have created 15,000 jobs since 2009.
Ford Motor Co., the world’s most profitable automaker, is hiring 1,800 workers and spending $600 million to overhaul a factory in Louisville, Kentucky, to build small sport-utility vehicles, Marcey Evans, a Ford spokeswoman, said in an interview last month.
Manufacturing payrolls rose by 10,000 in December, today’s report showed. Economists had projected an increase of 5,000.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, has picked up. Holiday purchases rose 5.5 percent, the best performance since 2005, said MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse, which measures retail sales by all payment forms. That compared with a 4.1 percent gain a year earlier. The numbers include Internet sales and exclude automobile purchases.
‘Cautiously Optimistic’
“While it appears that the economic environment has stabilized and is perhaps improving, persistent high unemployment and uncertainty in the economy could continue to pressure consumers and affect their spending,” Steven Temares, chief executive officer at Union, New Jersey-based Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., said on a teleconference with analysts Dec. 22. Still, “we remain cautiously optimistic,” he said.
Unemployment stuck above 9 percent is one reason why President Barack Obama last month signed an $858 billion bill extending all Bush-era tax cuts for two years. The bill also continues expanded unemployment insurance benefits through 2011 and cuts payrolls taxes by 2 percentage points.
Employment at service-providers increased 105,000 in December. The number of temporary workers rose 16,000, the smallest gain since October 2009. Construction companies reduced payrolls by 16,000, the most since May, and retailers added 12,000 workers.
State, Local Cuts
Government payrolls decreased by 10,000. State and local governments reduced employment by 20,000, while the federal government added 10,000 jobs.
States and municipalities with growing budget gaps are cutting spending and reducing headcount. Florida may cut 5 percent of its state workforce to save costs, Governor-elect Rick Scott said in an interview Dec. 3 on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness With Margaret Brennan.”
November employment rose 71,000, more than an initially reported gain of 39,000. Payrolls in November and October combined were 70,000 more than previously estimated.
The workforce shrank by 260,000 workers last month, sending down the share of the population in the labor force to a 26-year low of 64.3 percent. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased as a percentage of all jobless, rose to 44.3 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
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The workforce shrank by 260,000 workers last month, sending down the share of the population in the labor force to a 26-year low of 64.3 percent. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased as a percentage of all jobless, rose to 44.3 percent.
Dammmmmn!!! That hope and change really worked, folks. Yes, sir. Obama really turned things around.
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I agree that unemployment numbers are bullshit, but they always have been. No matter who's running the show, they make it out to be better than it is.
That said, yes, unemployment is higher than it was under Bush, however, working in corporate America, most of the job losses happened under Obama, but you could make a case that the crash that happened in Nov. 2008 is what caused a lot of that, if not most of it.
Even here where I work, we laid off 10 percent of our workforce between Sept '09 and Feb. '10... Which was a knee jerk reaction to the stock price going from about 50 bucks down to about 14 shortly after the crash.
Made the industry change focus (well, at least our business model of the industry) and caused huge layoffs.
Are things as good now as they were in 2007, hell no... Shit was good on Wall Street then, but let's be mindful that the "perfect storm" of financial disaster hadn't hit yet. Today, we are dealing with aftermath and it's getting better... albeit slowly.
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I agree that unemployment numbers are bullshit, but they always have been. No matter who's running the show, they make it out to be better than it is.
That said, yes, unemployment is higher than it was under Bush, however, working in corporate America, most of the job losses happened under Obama, but you could make a case that the crash that happened in Nov. 2008 is what caused a lot of that, if not most of it.
Even here where I work, we laid off 10 percent of our workforce between Sept '09 and Feb. '10... Which was a knee jerk reaction to the stock price going from about 50 bucks down to about 14 shortly after the crash.
Made the industry change focus (well, at least our business model of the industry) and caused huge layoffs.
Are things as good now as they were in 2007, hell no... Shit was good on Wall Street then, but let's be mindful that the "perfect storm" of financial disaster hadn't hit yet. Today, we are dealing with aftermath and it's getting better... albeit slowly.
The economy had already fallen far enough when Obama took office. After the big panics of September and October of 2008, the market remained relatively calm in Bush's last 3 months. There were no more big pieces of bad news coming out of Wall Street. THen, in Obama's first 3 months the market began crashing again, most likely because of bad news coming out of Washington. I will grant that atleast 50% of the job losses that have occured under Obama are not his fault (not as President anyway). But Obama is fully to blame for the lack of recovery. THe job numbers hit rock bottom 15 months ago and havent moved since. That is completley unacceptable. ANd for liberals to defend that type of performance and criticise Bush when he had a 5% unemployment rate for most of his presidency is laughable and pathetic. The American people are still largely accepting that argument and therefore get what they deserve.
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The economy had already fallen far enough when Obama took office. After the big panics of September and October of 2008, the market remained relatively calm in Bush's last 3 months. There were no more big pieces of bad news coming out of Wall Street. THen, in Obama's first 3 months the market began crashing again, most likely because of bad news coming out of Washington. I will grant that atleast 50% of the job losses that have occured under Obama are not his fault (not as President anyway). But Obama is fully to blame for the lack of recovery. THe job numbers hit rock bottom 15 months ago and havent moved since. That is completley unacceptable. ANd for liberals to defend that type of performance and criticise Bush when he had a 5% unemployment rate for most of his presidency is laughable and pathetic. The American people are still largely accepting that argument and therefore get what they deserve.
I agree that it's absolutely ridiculous to put today's numbers on Bush what so ever.
Obama has had 2 full years to work on the economy and he has done VERY little.
The question really becomes why does wall street not like the policies of the Obama administration. As far as I can tell, he's been very kind to Wall Street. Bailing out banks, auto makers, and the like.
Seems like Wall Street would be positive about those actions and not have had the job losses they did, but alas, it seems not to matter.
No matter how you put it, to put today's unemployment on Bush is pretty ridiculous and I agree when people do that, it's sad.
I personally was allowing Obama 1 year and a few months to say, "I'm fixing what Bush fucked up." After that, I was tired of people putting the blame on Bush. It's stupid.
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Pelosi Statement on December Jobs Report
democraticleader.gov ^
Pelosi Statement on December Jobs Report January 07, 2011
Washington, D.C. – Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi released the following statement today after the Department of Labor released its jobs report for December 2010, showing that the economy added 103,000 jobs, the private sector grew for the 12th straight month, and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent – the lowest level in 19 months:
“Today’s jobs report provides evidence that the policies of the Democratic-led Congress are helping to create jobs and revitalize our economy – adding more jobs in 2010 than President Bush did over eight years. With so many Americans still looking for work, now is not the time to reverse course.
“Republicans must join Democrats in focusing on putting people to work, instead of making their top priority repealing critical patient protections, putting insurance companies back in charge of the health of the American people and blowing a $230 billion hole in the deficit.
“Building on the progress of the December jobs numbers – marking the last full month of Democratic leadership of the House – we will continue to measure every proposal by whether it creates jobs, strengthens our middle class, and reduces the deficit.”
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Pelosi Statement on December Jobs Report
democraticleader.gov ^
Pelosi Statement on December Jobs Report January 07, 2011
Washington, D.C. – Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi released the following statement today after the Department of Labor released its jobs report for December 2010, showing that the economy added 103,000 jobs, the private sector grew for the 12th straight month, and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent – the lowest level in 19 months:
“Today’s jobs report provides evidence that the policies of the Democratic-led Congress are helping to create jobs and revitalize our economy – adding more jobs in 2010 than President Bush did over eight years. With so many Americans still looking for work, now is not the time to reverse course.
“Republicans must join Democrats in focusing on putting people to work, instead of making their top priority repealing critical patient protections, putting insurance companies back in charge of the health of the American people and blowing a $230 billion hole in the deficit.
“Building on the progress of the December jobs numbers – marking the last full month of Democratic leadership of the House – we will continue to measure every proposal by whether it creates jobs, strengthens our middle class, and reduces the deficit.”
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I cannot believe she said that. She must think people are really stupid. Either that, or its the only way she can defend these pathetic numbers.
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The woman is so beyond delusional its not funny. Did you see the graph BF posted as to overall participation in the workforce since that wretch was speaker?
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The woman is so beyond delusional its not funny. Did you see the graph BF posted as to overall participation in the workforce since that wretch was speaker?
Her statement may "technically" be correct, but when there's low unemployment, what jobs should be added?
That's just spin... no other way to put it.
Such a sad sad statement to make. What a loon.
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Oh Im sure it is technically true. After all, Bush inherited the .com bust just as the job losses started to occur, but only after a year of the market crashing which foretold the job losses. Then he had the expansion cut short by the artificiality of the housing bubble which was caused by Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. In spite of that, the unemployement rate was near 5% for most of his presidency, and never got above 7%.
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PLEASE!!!! They're cooking the books. They're no longer counting people WHO ARE STILL JOBLESS but have quit filing.
This is as bad as counting the temporary government workers to boost employment statistics.
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Oh Im sure it is technically true. After all, Bush inherited the .com bust just as the job losses started to occur, but only after a year of the market crashing which foretold the job losses. Then he had the expansion cut short by the artificiality of the housing bubble which was caused by Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. In spite of that, the unemployement rate was near 5% for most of his presidency, and never got above 7%.
Absolutely... Her statement is "technically true", but it's all spin.
So for her to say it is at least "disingenuous".
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This is as bad as counting the temporary government workers to boost employment statistics.
but the point is, didn't carter did it with 1980 census workers? Bush1 did it with 1990 census workers? Clinton did it with 2000 census workers?
If Obama was the first president to include census jobs (or ANY temporary govt jobs) in the numbers - then yes, he's full of crap. But I'm thinking that's not the case, and every other president before did the same thing...
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but the point is, didn't carter did it with 1980 census workers? Bush1 did it with 1990 census workers? Clinton did it with 2000 census workers?
If Obama was the first president to include census jobs (or ANY temporary govt jobs) in the numbers - then yes, he's full of crap. But I'm thinking that's not the case, and every other president before did the same thing...
Even if that is true, what difference does that make?
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When do we start getting hundreds of thousands a jobs a month like biden said almost a year ago?
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When do we start getting hundreds of thousands a jobs a month like biden said almost a year ago?
Well, december was 103 thousand... so I guess December of 2010?
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If I remember correctly, he said 500k a month.
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If I remember correctly, he said 500k a month.
Well obviously that didn't happen. I don't remember any specific numbers mind you either.
I still wonder how high UE would be if we had done nothing... Many people think it could be 15 or 20 percent.
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US jobs report an ‘utter mess’
By Robin Harding in Washington
Published: January 7 2011 13:57 | Last updated: January 7 2011 19:16
Markets hoped that December’s payroll report would mark a breakthrough for the US economy’s recovery, with a surge in private job creation towards 200,000 – a level that would finally put a dent in the unemployment rate.
Instead they got a murky mixture of a report, prompting one economist, Rob Carnell of ING Bank, to call it an “utter mess” and question why markets focus so much on payrolls at all.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Editorial Comment: Something stirring in the US economy - Jan-07.Gavyn Davies: Nonfarm payrolls - Jan-07.FT Alphaville: Employment report - Jan-07.US jobless claims add to signs of recovery - Jan-06.Opinion: Now Obama needs to talk up America - Jan-05.Analysis: America – riveting prospects - Jan-06..The problem is that the monthly payrolls report contains two different measures – a survey of households and a survey of employers – and in December they pointed in different directions.
The employment survey, the normal focus of attention, showed overall growth in payrolls of only 103,000. That was well below expectations, especially after a disappointing November report and a remarkably high estimate from private- sector payroll processor ADP earlier this week.
Yet the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is calculated, sent a completely different message. It showed an extra 297,000 people in jobs and 260,000 fewer people in the labour force. The combination of the two was enough to cause a drop in the unemployment rate from 9.8 to 9.4 per cent.
The reality – taking the trend in both measures and other recent data together – is likely to be somewhere in between. Jobs growth is picking up a bit to more than 100,000 a month but still shows no sign of a dramatic acceleration.
“At the moment [both surveys] send the same message: things are doing OK but not as well as you would have hoped or expected given the apparent strength of growth,” said Paul Dales, senior US economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman,struck a similar note in testimony to Congress prepared before the release of the payrolls data. “Although recent indicators of spending and production have generally been encouraging, conditions in the labour market have improved only modestly at best,” Mr Bernanke said.
There are a few theories to explain all the moves in the data. One is seasonal adjustments, which tend to be tricky at the end of the year and may have distorted the ADP numbers.
The difference between the household and business survey data is most likely just a one-off, although there are some suggestions that the business survey may have a slight bias towards larger companies, and their hiring behaviour could be different.
Most analysts attribute the fall in labour force participation and therefore the fall in the unemployment rate, to the expiry of long-term unemployment benefits in December.
If you no longer receive unemployment benefits, the theory goes, then you no longer have any reason to tell a survey you are ac-tively looking for work. The number of “discouraged workers”, who say that they are no longer looking for a job because they do not think they can find one, was 1.3m in December.
Congress has since renewed long-term unemployment benefits. A likely consequence is that the size of the labour force will bounce back in January, reversing the fall in the unemployment rate.
A further disappointment was in the average duration of a spell of unemployment, which rose from 21.7 to 22.4 weeks, suggesting that those people who are finding jobs have not been out of work for long.
In his testimony, Mr Bernanke said “persistently high unemployment, by damping household income and confidence, could threaten the strength and sustainability of the recovery”.
He will have to wait for any real sign of momentum in the US labour market.
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