Author Topic: January UE% of 9.4% from the BLS is nothing but pure BS (Read 3750 times)

Soul Crusher · « **on:** January 07, 2011, 06:05:52 AM »

Another Big Miss: Just 103K New Jobs Created In December
Joe Weisenthal | Jan. 7, 2011, 8:30 AM | 1,475 | 25
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Bummer for the bulls!

Total new jobs were just 103K, well below the official estimates, and WELL below the whispers, which went as high as 300K.

Stocks are dropping. Gold is perking back up.

The interesting thing, though, is that the household survey, which has been typically weaker than the main report actually showed a jump in 297K.

The unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%.

Click here for ongoing updates.

Here's the full report form the BLS >

Background: This is it! After November's ugly jobs report, hopes are riding high, and estimates are for around 150-170K. But the "whisper" is a lot higher, and the markets may be bummed if the number comes just "in line" especially after that ridiculous 297K ADP number.

Some other numbers to watch:

08:30 US Hourly Earnings (Dec); consensus +0.1%
08:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Dec); consensus 34.3
08:30 US Unemployment Rate (Dec); consensus 9.7%
Also watch for any revisions to November numbers, which were ugly.

Meanwhile, stocks are up slightly, and gold is getting slammed.

Tags: Employment | Get Alerts for these topics » Short URL Share:

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/december-non-farm-payrolls-2011-1#ixzz1AMH0Wrwy

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #1 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:10:13 AM »

Unemployment just appears to have dropped because there are fewer people participating. Participation rate is at 25 yr lows.

Not Seasonally adjusted NILF (not in labor force) Nov 2010 to Dec 2010 increased over 700,000.

Dec 2009 to Dec 2010 1.5 million.

Dec 2000 to Dec 2010 15.1 million.

This signals a long term job degradation. As out population increases fewer people are in the workforce. this increases pressure on social programs and decreases tax revenue (from income).

In other words...the Gallup unemployment report is the most accurate since it counts the people the BLS doesn't. It has U-6 at 20%.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/december-non-farm-payrolls-2011-1#ixzz1AMHneUUq

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I'm sure this is way to complicated for the average Hope & Changer to understand.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #2 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:17:09 AM »

In 2004, John Kerry said, “America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression...”

In 2006, Nancy Pelosi said, “The President has the worst jobs record since the Great Depression..

Ah, the good old days when unemployment was only 5%....

dario73 · « **Reply #3 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:25:24 AM »

What do you think is the real UE? 20%?

The Showstoppa · « **Reply #4 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:25:44 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 07, 2011, 06:17:09 AM

In 2004, John Kerry said, “America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression...”

In 2006, Nancy Pelosi said, “The President has the worst jobs record since the Great Depression..

Ah, the good old days when unemployment was only 5%....

haha, funny that it has doubled since then and not a peep, except to blame the former admin. i wonder when 2012 rolls around if they will still say the same thing?

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #5 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:34:00 AM »

These numbers are so stupid.

If we need 125k a month just to stay even, how does the official rate go dow by .4 % when they claim onl 130k jobs were created uless they are taking out hundreds of thousands from the workforce?

Only a complete idiot believes this nonsense.

225for70 · « **Reply #6 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:39:30 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 07, 2011, 06:34:00 AM

These numbers are so stupid.

If we need 125k a month just to stay even, how does the official rate go dow by .4 % when they claim onl 130k jobs were created uless they are taking out hundreds of thousands from the workforce?

Only a complete idiot believes this nonsense.

inflation is also non existent, some economic indicators even show deflation...

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #7 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:41:23 AM »

Quote from: 225for70 on January 07, 2011, 06:39:30 AM

inflation is also non existent, some economic indicators even show deflation...

Oh, you mean the so called 'basket" that does not include energy, local taxes, fees, or food?

225for70 · « **Reply #8 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:45:16 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 07, 2011, 06:41:23 AM

Oh, you mean the so called 'basket" that does not include energy, local taxes, fees, or food?

That's the one...

These economic indicators are a complete joke...The only people that take them serious are people in the securities industry.

The way the BLS acquires employment information is just laughable..

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #9 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:53:28 AM »

I'm not even a math guy but can see how this des not add up in any real way.

If it takes 125k jobs a month to stay even, and they say that 130k jobs were created, how does the rate drop .4% considering the size of the labor force?

Seems like a total crock of shit to me unless they are just dropping hundreds of thousands from the people claiming to look for work.

225for70 · « **Reply #10 on:** January 07, 2011, 06:56:08 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 07, 2011, 06:53:28 AM

I'm not even a math guy but can see how this des not add up in any real way.

If it takes 125k jobs a month to stay even, and they say that 130k jobs were created, how does the rate drop .4% considering the size of the labor force?

Seems like a total crock of shit to me unless they are just dropping hundreds of thousands from the people claiming to look for work.

I think the only logical thing that could have happened was some people's unemployment benefits ran out..So they are no longer counted in the figures...

MM2K · « **Reply #11 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:01:36 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 07, 2011, 06:17:09 AM

In 2004, John Kerry said, “America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression...”

In 2006, Nancy Pelosi said, “The President has the worst jobs record since the Great Depression..

Ah, the good old days when unemployment was only 5%....

We're in this mess because people believed that crap. I cant beleive how horrible these numbers are!! And how the hell does the unemployment rate go down THAT much with so few jobs created? Fishy.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #12 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:05:34 AM »

Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To Fresh 25 Year Low, Adjusted Unemployment Rate At 11.7%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2011 08:54 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/labor-force-participation-rate-drops-fresh-25-year-low-adjusted-unemployment-rate-117

Ben BernankeRealityUnemploym ent

While today's unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low. Assuming a reversion to the mean in the long-term average participation rate back to 66%, means that the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November, is in reality 157.6 million, a delta of 3.91 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%.

240 is Back · « **Reply #13 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:06:03 AM »

33,

Was it bullshit when UE was at 5 or 6 percent... a decade back?

Or did nonbartisan BLS turn evil come 2009?

Fury · « **Reply #14 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:06:53 AM »

And here comes Robert Gibbs, Jr. from the shadows to try to deflect attention from the failure that is Obama.

How anyone can defend this guy is beyond me.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #15 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:09:08 AM »

Anyone know how to post this graph? A cerain date seems to coincide with the downward trajectory there.

Anyone? Anyone?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/havenstein/Labor%20Force%20Participation%20Rate.png

Fury · « **Reply #16 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:12:07 AM »

If I didn't know any better I'd say that's right around the time a certain party took control of congress.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #17 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:13:48 AM »

Quote from: 240 is Back on January 07, 2011, 07:06:03 AM

33,

Was it bullshit when UE was at 5 or 6 percent... a decade back?

Or did nonbartisan BLS turn evil come 2009?

Lets assume it was BS back then, its still undeniably far worse now since Pelosi took over congress, and Obama has been there now for 2 years and things havegotten progressivly worse.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #18 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:18:58 AM »

Fury · « **Reply #19 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:21:23 AM »

240 is Back · « **Reply #20 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:31:03 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 07, 2011, 07:13:48 AM

Lets assume it was BS back then, its still undeniably far worse now since Pelosi took over congress, and Obama has been there now for 2 years and things havegotten progressivly worse.

No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.

We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #21 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:32:04 AM »

Quote from: 333386 on January 07, 2011, 07:13:48 AM

Lets assume it was BS back then, its still undeniably far worse now since Pelosi took over congress, and Obama has been there now for 2 years and things havegotten progressivly worse.

240 - do you agree with what I wrote?

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #22 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:32:59 AM »

Quote from: 240 is Back on January 07, 2011, 07:31:03 AM

No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.

We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.

The Showstoppa · « **Reply #23 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:35:04 AM »

Quote from: 240 is Back on January 07, 2011, 07:31:03 AM

No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.

We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.

WTF has happened to you?

Soul Crusher · « **Reply #24 on:** January 07, 2011, 07:46:14 AM »

Quote from: 240 is Back on January 07, 2011, 07:31:03 AM

No. If we assume - however farfetched - that the govt has been lying about UE rates... then things have not gotten worse lately, they've gotten better.

We are at 9.4 percent. not 10. not 11. You can adjust it by any curve you like, but it's improved over 2 years.

You really are screwed up in the head.

The labor force participation shows the real number of what is going on and its still going down.