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White House Already Spinning Feared New York Loss
National Journal ^ | September 13, 2011 | Marc Ambinder
The White House is girding for a political loss in the heart of New York on Tuesday. They’re also spinning up an explanation that won’t entirely result in the blame landing on the low popularity of the president. As in Massachusetts, where Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley was faulted by the White House and many others for tone-deaf campaigning, Democratic candidate Dave Weprin may see the undercarriage of that new White House campaign bus.
Democratic officials and President Obama’s advisers expect Weprin to lose the election to upstart Republican Bob Turner in the contest to fill the 9th District seat vacated by Democrat Anthony Weiner.
Obama won the district, which spans southern Brooklyn and Queens, by 11 percentage points in 2008. His approval rating there is now 33 percent.
The president’s top political aides concede that if his numbers had been “sturdier,” it might have had a slightly positive effect for Weprin. That means no Obama-voiced robocalls to most Democrats in the district—just text messages targeted at younger voters. More-popular Democrats, like Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Bill Clinton, are lending their voices to the get-out-the-vote effort.
Democratic strategists studying the district say Turner’s strength comes from independents and traditionally Democratic voters in Orthodox Jewish communities, a demographic displaying an enormous amount of interest in voting.
The district has very moderate-to-conservative pockets. Weiner, who resigned after a sexting scandal, did a very good job of appealing to the concerns of the Archie Bunker part of the district while also speaking to the younger transplants. That took a lot of skill and a careful cultivation of Jewish community leaders.
Weprin is an Orthodox Jew and for years represented that constituency in the state Assembly. But his vote in favor of gay marriage last spring drew significant protest. He’s been down among Orthodox Jews by a 2-1 margin since entering the race.
In contrast, secular Democrats in the district, including secular Jews, display the sort of apathy associated with a demoralized political party. Weprin has been hemorrhaging support from all traditional Democratic constituencies.
The Republican Jewish Committee and independent Democratic allies like former New York Mayor Ed Koch have called the race a referendum on President Obama’s policies in general, and specifically his orientation toward Israel. They say a Turner victory would send a message that they don’t want to be the president’s rubber stamp. But Congress, controlled by Republicans, is no more popular in the district than Obama. And when polled, conservative Jews don’t list Israel among their top concerns. But of all voters who do say Israel is at the forefront of their minds, a mega-majority supports Turner.
Still, Obama always has had trouble with Orthodox Jews, and two Obama advisers said they understand that at least some of the frustration may be exercised in the form of a vote against the Democratic candidate. They concede that the election might bring to the fore how difficult it will be for Obama to win back the trust of independents—no matter what their faith. This New York contest would seem to have implications beyond Brooklyn and Queens.
Polling lurched in Turner’s direction late August when Weprin, in an interview with the New York Daily News editorial board, underestimated the size of the national debt by $10 trillion, suggesting he was ignorant about the main issue of the day. Then he dropped out of a debate, citing a hurricane that had already passed through the district.
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White House Already Spinning Feared New York Loss
National Journal ^ | September 13, 2011 | Marc Ambinder
The White House is girding for a political loss in the heart of New York on Tuesday. They’re also spinning up an explanation that won’t entirely result in the blame landing on the low popularity of the president. As in Massachusetts, where Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley was faulted by the White House and many others for tone-deaf campaigning, Democratic candidate Dave Weprin may see the undercarriage of that new White House campaign bus.
Democratic officials and President Obama’s advisers expect Weprin to lose the election to upstart Republican Bob Turner in the contest to fill the 9th District seat vacated by Democrat Anthony Weiner.
Obama won the district, which spans southern Brooklyn and Queens, by 11 percentage points in 2008. His approval rating there is now 33 percent.
The president’s top political aides concede that if his numbers had been “sturdier,” it might have had a slightly positive effect for Weprin. That means no Obama-voiced robocalls to most Democrats in the district—just text messages targeted at younger voters. More-popular Democrats, like Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Bill Clinton, are lending their voices to the get-out-the-vote effort.
Democratic strategists studying the district say Turner’s strength comes from independents and traditionally Democratic voters in Orthodox Jewish communities, a demographic displaying an enormous amount of interest in voting.
The district has very moderate-to-conservative pockets. Weiner, who resigned after a sexting scandal, did a very good job of appealing to the concerns of the Archie Bunker part of the district while also speaking to the younger transplants. That took a lot of skill and a careful cultivation of Jewish community leaders.
Weprin is an Orthodox Jew and for years represented that constituency in the state Assembly. But his vote in favor of gay marriage last spring drew significant protest. He’s been down among Orthodox Jews by a 2-1 margin since entering the race.
In contrast, secular Democrats in the district, including secular Jews, display the sort of apathy associated with a demoralized political party. Weprin has been hemorrhaging support from all traditional Democratic constituencies.
The Republican Jewish Committee and independent Democratic allies like former New York Mayor Ed Koch have called the race a referendum on President Obama’s policies in general, and specifically his orientation toward Israel. They say a Turner victory would send a message that they don’t want to be the president’s rubber stamp. But Congress, controlled by Republicans, is no more popular in the district than Obama. And when polled, conservative Jews don’t list Israel among their top concerns. But of all voters who do say Israel is at the forefront of their minds, a mega-majority supports Turner.
Still, Obama always has had trouble with Orthodox Jews, and two Obama advisers said they understand that at least some of the frustration may be exercised in the form of a vote against the Democratic candidate. They concede that the election might bring to the fore how difficult it will be for Obama to win back the trust of independents—no matter what their faith. This New York contest would seem to have implications beyond Brooklyn and Queens.
Polling lurched in Turner’s direction late August when Weprin, in an interview with the New York Daily News editorial board, underestimated the size of the national debt by $10 trillion, suggesting he was ignorant about the main issue of the day. Then he dropped out of a debate, citing a hurricane that had already passed through the district.
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At least wait 'till you actually get beat, before you make up pitiful excuses, libs. GOOD GRIEF!!!
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Obama won the district, which spans southern Brooklyn and Queens, by 11 percentage points in 2008. His approval rating there is now 33 percent.
________________________ ________________________
But but but but , 240 tells me Obama is so loved and cherished everywhere?
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Jewish voters tell David Weprin where to shove his yarmulke
The Daily Caller ^ | 9/13/11 | Adam Brickley
If the polls are right, the voters in the solidly Democratic New York City district that Anthony Weiner represented until earlier this year are about to elect long-shot Republican businessman Bob Turner to Congress.
Of course, this will be read by Republicans as a sign that the Obama administration has lost support even in bluer-than-blue areas (which is partially true) and written off by Democrats as a fluke produced by the highly irregular demographics of New York’s Ninth District (also partly true). However, both of those blanket statements mask the true reason that Bob Turner will win this race — and the national implications of this vote going forward.
If Turner wins, it will not be because Obama has lost blue-state America entirely. Although the president’s sagging numbers set the stage for this moment, local dynamics are also at play. The Ninth District, which includes parts of Queens and Brooklyn, has an extremely high concentration of Orthodox Jewish voters. Traditionally loyal Democrats, these voters now appear to be driving the Turner surge. And it’s not just Obama and his policies on Israel that they are repudiating. While Obama has a jaw-dropping 31% approval rating in the district, many voters are equally incensed at the New York Democratic Party and Turner’s opponent, David Weprin, for supporting New York’s gay marriage law.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
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BUMP. Looks like the Repub might win this. Lmao 3 to 1 dem advantage and this race was a referendum on Obama
2012 is going to be a tsunami against Obama.
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BOOM - AP just called it for Turner!
LMAO - Obama and the demo marxists are blaming angry Jews!
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AP Has Called Election for Turner
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS ^ | 9/13/2011 | AP
Posted on September 14, 2011 12:03:39 AM EDT by vbmoneyspender
AP has called the race for Turner
(Excerpt) Read more at hosted.ap.org ...
2012 here we come. Obama is going down like mondale.
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http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4993708
Lmao. the DUMP is in meltdown.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/13/new-york-special-election-results_n_961363.html
Meltdown.
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GOP wins in NY House race, seen as Obama rebuke
AP ^
Posted on September 14, 2011 12:16:14 AM EDT by Borough Park
NEW YORK (AP) -- Republicans have scored an upset victory in a House race that became a referendum on President Barack Obama's economic policies.
Retired media executive and political novice Bob Turner defeated Democratic state Assemblyman David Weprin in a special election Tuesday to succeed Rep. Anthony Weiner, a seven-term Democrat who resigned in June after a sexting scandal.
(Excerpt) Read more at hosted.ap.org ...
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GOP wins in NY House race, seen as Obama rebuke
By BETH FOUHY
Associated Press
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NEW YORK (AP) -- Republicans have scored an upset victory in a House race that became a referendum on President Barack Obama's economic policies.
Retired media executive and political novice Bob Turner defeated Democratic state Assemblyman David Weprin in a special election Tuesday to succeed Rep. Anthony Weiner, a seven-term Democrat who resigned in June after a sexting scandal.
With more than 80 percent of precincts reporting late Tuesday, Turner had 54 percent of the vote to Weprin's 46 percent in unofficial results.
"We've been asked by the people of this district to send a message to Washington," Turner told supporters after the landmark win. "I hope they hear it loud and clear. We've been told this is a referendum. Mr. President, we are on the wrong track. We have had it with an irresponsible fiscal policy which endangers the entire economy."
Weprin did not immediately concede.
The heavily Democratic district, which spans parts of Queens and Brooklyn, had never sent a Republican to the House. But frustration with the continued weak national economy gave Republicans the edge.
Turner has vowed to bring business practicality to Washington and push back on spending and taxes.
The race was supposed to be an easy win for Democrats, who have a 3-1 ratio registration advantage in the district.
Weprin, a 56-year-old Orthodox Jew and member of a prominent Queens political family, seemed a good fit for the largely white, working-class district, which is nearly 40 percent Jewish.
But voter frustration with Obama put Weprin in the unlikely spot of playing defense. A Siena Poll released Friday found just 43 percent of likely voters approved of the president's job performance, while 54 percent said they disapproved. Among independents, just 29 percent said they approved of Obama's job performance.
Turner, a 70-year-old Catholic, vowed to push back on Obama's policies if elected. He received help from prominent Republicans including former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose much-praised stewardship of the city after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks was recalled during the 10th anniversary of the attacks last weekend.
Weprin became embroiled in New York-centric disputes over Israel and gay marriage, which cost him some support among Jewish voters.
Orthodox Jews, who tend to be conservative on social issues, expressed anger over Weprin's vote in the Assembly to legalize gay marriage. In July, New York became one of six states to recognize same-sex nuptials.
Former Mayor Ed Koch, a Democrat, endorsed Turner in July as a way to "send a message" to Obama on his policies toward Israel. And Weprin was challenged on his support of a proposed Islamic center and mosque near the World Trade Center site, in lower Manhattan.
The Democratic Party enlisted two of its biggest guns, former President Bill Clinton and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, to record phone calls for Weprin. And Democrats relied on organized labor and other affiliated groups to bring voters to the polls.
The House seat opened up when Weiner was pushed by party leaders to resign after sending sexually provocative tweets and text messages to women he met online.
The trouble for Weiner, who served seven terms, began when a photo of a man's crotch surfaced on his Twitter feed. He initially denied the photo was of him but later admitted it was.
Weiner, who's married, resigned June 16 after two weeks of fighting off pressure to step aside. He apologized for "the embarrassment that I have caused" and said he hoped to continue to fight for the causes dear to his constituents.
In a special election in May, Democrat Kathy Hochul won a heavily Republican upstate district after pledging to protect Medicare, the popular government health care plan for seniors.
The state replaced outdated lever-operated voting machines last year in favor of paper ballots and optical scanners, which take more time to close and process. Polls closed at 9 p.m. Tuesday, and results trickled in slowly, but a Board of Elections spokeswoman said the vote-tallying system was running smoothly and there were no problems to report.
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Associated Press writers Andrew Taylor and Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
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Beth Fouhy can be reached on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/bfouhy
© 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Lmfao!!!!
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I was just about to say, regarding the DU bleating, that I thought the goofies on HP were cracked.
These were the same folks who were talking smack when the GOP lost that House seat in Buffalo, declaring the end of the Tea Party because of "Mediscare".
Let the weeping and teeth-gnashing continue.
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He won by 8 points !
Obama is beyond done. I am almost certain his party is going to insist Hillary primary him ASAP.
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You know what the spin will be.
The dem party was damaged by the scandal.
Never mind that its a heavy blue district and they elected a republican business man. ::)
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You obamabots are in for a massive coronary next year.
8 points in this district to the repub spells doom for the rats next year on a biblical measure.
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Bob Turner Wins NY-9 Seat for GOP
Human Events ^ | September 14, 2011 | John Gizzi
Posted on September 14, 2011 5:43:37 AM EDT by statestreet
One could almost hear the collective gasps of Democrats from New York to Washington Tuesday night, as conservative Republican Bob Turner won the nationally-watched special election for the seat of former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D.-NY). In a New York City district (Brooklyn-Queens) in which registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 3-to-1 and which has not had a Republican House Member since 1922, the 70-year-old retired television executive defeated State Assemblyman and Democratic nominee David Weprin by a margin of 50% to 47%, with the remaining 3% going to Christopher Hoeppner of the Socialist Workers Party.
Speaking to HUMAN EVENTS a few hours before the voting booths closed in New York’s 9th District, Turner predicted the national tremors that would be generated if he emerged triumphant. As he told us, “If [Weprin] loses tonight, it will reflect poorly on the national Democratic Administration.”
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
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Twin defeats spark Democratic fears
Politico ^ | 9/14/11 4:57 AM EDT | JONATHAN MARTIN & BEN SMITH & JAKE SHERMAN
Posted on September 14, 2011 6:30:29 AM EDT by RC one
The Democratic Party’s rare loss of a congressional seat in its urban heartland Tuesday, accompanied by a blowout defeat in a Nevada special election, marked the latest in a string of demoralizing setbacks that threatened to deepen the party’s crisis of confidence and raise concerns about President Barack Obama’s political fortunes.
In New York, Bob Turner(R) soundly defeated Democrat David Weprin in a House contest that – in the view of party leaders, at least — featured an anemic urban machine, distracted labor unions, and disloyal voters. In Nevada, a consequential state for the president’s re-election strategy, Democrats suffered a runaway loss rooted in a weak showing in Reno’s Washoe County, a key bellwether.
Even before the polls closed, the recriminations – something short of panic, and considerably more than mere grumbling – had begun. On a high-level campaign conference call Tuesday afternoon, Democratic donors and strategists commiserated over their disappointment in Obama. A source on the call described the mood as “awful.”
“People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” said the source.
Less expansive but equally telling were the remarks of House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, who in a conversation with reporters Tuesday morning said bluntly that Obama would take some blame for the two special election losses.
“I think every election reflects on the person in charge, but do I think it is an overall statement on the president alone? No,” said Hoyer. “Do I think it will be interpreted as being a statement on Obama? That’s probably correct.”
A senior Hill Democratic aide was more direct in attempting to explain the New York loss: “The approval ratings for the guy at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue cratered.”
A Turner consultant, Steve Goldberg, validated that assessment: “It was all Obama — not even a thought of anything else.”
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
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Disaster looms for O in 2012
New York Post ^ | September 14, 2010 | David Seifman
Posted on September 14, 2011 6:45:07 AM EDT by Zakeet
Republican Bob Turner’s victory in the closely watched special election to replace disgraced Rep. Anthony Weiner delivered an unmistakable message to President Obama: Be afraid, be very afraid, of what’s coming down the pike in 2012.
That a Brooklyn-Queens district where Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1 could swing to a GOP candidate who was outspent and outmanned -- and where unions poured in enormous resources in the final hours -- doesn’t bode well for a president facing re-election in a queasy economy.
Public Policy Polling minced no words when it reported Sunday that Assemblyman David Weprin, handpicked by Democratic leaders as their so-called sure-shot candidate, was undone by a president whose approval rating in the district came in at a dismal 31 percent.
“If Obama’s approval in the district was even 40 percent, Weprin would almost definitely be headed to Congress. He’s getting dragged down by something bigger than himself,” the polling group declared in projecting a Turner victory.
[Snip]
Weprin’s loss is also a devastating blow to Queens Democratic leader Joe Crowley, who not only picked the wrong guy to represent his party but who now also has to ponder what to do with the 9th Congressional District, which he intended to dissolve in next year’s redistricting to create a safer seat for himself.
With the state slated to lose two House seats, there was a wink-wink deal for Weprin to step aside for the Democrats, while the GOP took out one of their own upstate.
Now Crowley has to find another sacrificial lamb.
[Snip]
Democratic congressional campaign leader Steve Israel can’t be happy to have squandered more than $500,000 on a losing effort to prop up Weprin when the money could have gone to other needy Democratic contenders.
Still can't believe this one. Wow. Short of a miracle, demos are going to get murdered next year.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/13/new-york-special-election-results_n_961363.html?
LMFAO!!! Panic and despair setting in.
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Hahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cue the far-left spin on this. Can't refute that this seat has been Dem-held since 1920 or whatever.
This is a complete rejection of President Downgrade.
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People hate obama w a passion here.
Other than the 95ers, people are sick to death of these crazy policies.
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Hahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cue the far-left spin on this. Can't refute that this seat has been Dem-held since 1920 or whatever.
This is a complete rejection of President Downgrade.
I am surprised that none of the board liberals have tried to downplay this victory by mentioning that due to redistricting next year, the seat will disappear. The winner will only hold office for a little over a year. But, this definitely sends a message to the White House.
Read this fact about the race:
Worried about Turner’s strong challenge in a district where Democrats account for a majority of the voters and outnumber Republicans by 3-to-1, Weprin’s campaign, the Democratic Party and unions poured more than $1.5 million into the race.
They vastly outspent Turner and the GOP on the airwaves, and swamped voters with mailings and phone calls -- to no avail.
The 9th Congressional District has been in Democratic hands since 1920. Before Weiner, the seat was held by such Democratic heavyweights Geraldine Ferraro and Charles Schumer.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/bam_bopped_in_big_apple_vote_wemU3ZneASofzOzRykkmlJ
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2012 is going to be like reagan and mondale at this rate. I am still betting the demo makes obama step aside.
They would not even let demos into the district to campaign for this guy since its so toxic.
240, Andre, Benny, Straw, et al can bs themselves all they want, Obama is an albatross on the party.
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HeadlinesWe pick, you click. WSJ
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz: NY-9 is “a very difficult district for Democrats”
http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2011/09/14/debbie-wasserman-schultz-ny-9-is-a-very-difficult-district-for-democrats
Democratic party leaders insisted the loss wasn’t a harbinger of things to come. “It’s a very difficult district for Democrats,” said Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, noting its Democratic margins there tend to be the second lowest of all the districts in New York City.
House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), dismissed that idea.
“This is a very seriously Democrat district,” Mr. Boehner said. “This is not a district that Republicans have any right to believe we could win.”
Read the Article
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These are comments by some voters and individuals associated with this race.
I said to myself, ‘We need to turn this election into a referendum [on Obama]. And we did!’ ’’ gushed former Mayor Ed Koch, the first prominent Democrat to cross party lines for Turner.
“I voted for Turner to send Obama a message on the economy and Israel,” said Elaine Kaye, 64, an Orthodox Jew.
Said Joe Altschuler, 67, a registered independent: “My vote was against Obama. I certainly don’t like his policy on Israel. The stimulus was a waste of money. This is a guy who talks great but doesn’t deliver.’’
For his part, Weprin and the Democratic machine painted Turner as a Tea Party Republican who would slash Medicare and Social Security. But he couldn’t overcome the anti-Obama sentiment.
“The public is rightfully very angry at government right now, and David being an elected official took more of the brunt of this anger,’’ said his brother, Councilman Mark Weprin. “The president took some of the heat [also].’’
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/bam_bopped_in_big_apple_vote_wemU3ZneASofzOzRykkmlJ
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These are comments by some voters and individuals associated with this race.
I said to myself, ‘We need to turn this election into a referendum [on Obama]. And we did!’ ’’ gushed former Mayor Ed Koch, the first prominent Democrat to cross party lines for Turner.
“I voted for Turner to send Obama a message on the economy and Israel,” said Elaine Kaye, 64, an Orthodox Jew.
Said Joe Altschuler, 67, a registered independent: “My vote was against Obama. I certainly don’t like his policy on Israel. The stimulus was a waste of money. This is a guy who talks great but doesn’t deliver.’’
For his part, Weprin and the Democratic machine painted Turner as a Tea Party Republican who would slash Medicare and Social Security. But he couldn’t overcome the anti-Obama sentiment.
“The public is rightfully very angry at government right now, and David being an elected official took more of the brunt of this anger,’’ said his brother, Councilman Mark Weprin. “The president took some of the heat [also].’’
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/bam_bopped_in_big_apple_vote_wemU3ZneASofzOzRykkmlJ
I don't live in this district, but will say - ethnic whites, many hispanics, jews, etc, are frothing at the mouth hatred of obama admn. where I live.
Other than the blacks and a few off the charts guilt ridden white "progressives" and govt workers, he has no one left.
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I don't live in this district, but will say - ethnic whites, many hispanics, jews, etc, are frothing at the mouth hatred of obama admn. where I live.
Other than the blacks and a few off the charts guilt ridden white "progressives" and govt workers, he has no one left.
This always happens when a politican is caught in a scandal. Funny thing is that Republican Rep Chris Lee got caught in exact same shit just a few months ago and a Democrat Kathy Hochul won his seat in a special election. It was even in New York as well which makes me wonder about the sanity of New Yorkers.... :P
It usually switches back over to the original party on the next election when people cool down. It really isn't anything to write home about because this election was clearly directed towards the scandal rather than anything else going on.
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HeadlinesWe pick, you click. WSJ
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz: NY-9 is “a very difficult district for Democrats”
http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2011/09/14/debbie-wasserman-schultz-ny-9-is-a-very-difficult-district-for-democrats
Democratic party leaders insisted the loss wasn’t a harbinger of things to come. “It’s a very difficult district for Democrats,” said Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, noting its Democratic margins there tend to be the second lowest of all the districts in New York City.
House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), dismissed that idea.
“This is a very seriously Democrat district,” Mr. Boehner said. “This is not a district that Republicans have any right to believe we could win.”
Read the Article
Liberals wants us to believe that the Democrat party cosists of intellectuals. This is one of the stupidest things I have ever read. What does she mean by "difficult district for Democrats"? Even if it was true that the Democratic margin at that district is the second lowest in NYC, it is still a 3-1 edge for the DNC. Democrats have no business losing that district. But, THE VOTING PUBLIC IS TIRED OF OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
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Liberals wants us to believe that the Democrat party cosists of intellectuals. This is one of the stupidest things I have ever read. What does she mean by "difficult district for Democrats". Even if it was true that the Democratic margin at that district is the second lowest in NYC, it is still a 3-1 edge for the DNC. Democrats have no business losing that district. But, THE VOTING PUBLIC IS TIRED OF OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
They lost because Weiner was showing his weiner around to people....I mean there's no other way to put it. I would have voted for a Republican if I was there.
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They lost because Weiner was showing his weiner around to people....I mean there's no other way to put it. I would have voted for a Republican if I was there.
Wrong. You don't live here. This was a complete referendum on Obama and his policies and largely helped by Ed Koch and Guiliani.
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GOP Turner wins Weiner seat in upset
By SALLY GOLDENBERG, REUVEN FENTON and CARL CAMPANILE
Last Updated: 3:54 AM, September 14, 2011
________________________ ___________________
Take that, Mr. President!
Republican Bob Turner scored a stunning upset victory yesterday by capturing disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s congressional seat.
Turner soundly defeated Democrat Assemblyman David Weprin in what is widely seen as a referendum on President Obama’s policies.
“We’ve lit one candle. There’s going to be a bonfire soon when they [in Washington] fully understand it,’’ Turner said of his victory in the once-safe Democratic Queens/Brooklyn district.
Some 500 cheering Turner supporters chanted “USA! USA!’’ at the victory party at the Roma View restaurant in Howard Beach.
Turner said he’ll be sworn in tomorrow. He’s expected to be the star guest at the New York Republican Party’s annual dinner tonight.
“This is a historic race. I’ve been asked by the people of this district to send a message to Washington, and I hope they hear it loud and clear,’’ he said.
“I’m the messenger.’’
Turner, 70, a retired TV exec, then took on Obama.
“We are ready to say, ‘Mr. President, we are on the wrong track,’ ’’ Turner said to thunderous applause, adding, “This election will resound through 2012.’’
Turner was ahead, 54 to 46 percent, with 89 percent of the precincts reporting early this morning.
But Weprin refused to concede.
“There’s a lot of votes to be be counted. Stay tuned,’’ the Queens Assemblyman said at his election-night gathering in Forest Hills.
National Republican and Democratic strategists closely watched a race that should have been a shoo-in for Weprin in a safe blue district.
But they saw Turner successfully turn it into a vote on Obama’s job performance, on the state of the economy and on the president’s controversial treatment of Israel.
“I said to myself, ‘We need to turn this election into a referendum [on Obama]. And we did!’ ’’ gushed former Mayor Ed Koch, the first prominent Democrat to cross party lines for Turner.
“This was an earthquake, an absolute earthquake,’’ said Brooklyn Assemblyman Dov Hikind, an influential orthodox Jewish Democrat who also backed Turner.
Turner tapped into Jewish voters’ discontent with Obama’s handling of Israel, particularly his pressing Jerusalem to negotiate its 1967 borders in peace talks with the Palestinian Authority.
“We’ve had it with your treatment of Israel,’’ Turner thundered, surrounded by hundreds of Orthodox Jewish supporters just after midnight.
Many fed-up voters agreed.
“I voted for Turner to send Obama a message on the economy and Israel,” said Elaine Kaye, 64, an Orthodox Jew.
Said Joe Altschuler, 67, a registered independent: “My vote was against Obama. I certainly don’t like his policy on Israel. The stimulus was a waste of money. This is a guy who talks great but doesn’t deliver.’’
For his part, Weprin and the Democratic machine painted Turner as a Tea Party Republican who would slash Medicare and Social Security. But he couldn’t overcome the anti-Obama sentiment.
“The public is rightfully very angry at government right now, and David being an elected official took more of the brunt of this anger,’’ said his brother, Councilman Mark Weprin. “The president took some of the heat [also].’’
Worried about Turner’s strong challenge in a district where Democrats account for a majority of the voters and outnumber Republicans by 3-to-1, Weprin’s campaign, the Democratic Party and unions poured more than $1.5 million into the race.
They vastly outspent Turner and the GOP on the airwaves, and swamped voters with mailings and phone calls -- to no avail.
The 9th Congressional District has been in Democratic hands since 1920. Before Weiner, the seat was held by such Democratic heavyweights Geraldine Ferraro and Charles Schumer.
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Hillary is going to jump in to this thing at this point my by estimation. She is the only one who can save the Dems.
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Liberals wants us to believe that the Democrat party cosists of intellectuals. This is one of the stupidest things I have ever read. What does she mean by "difficult district for Democrats"? Even if it was true that the Democratic margin at that district is the second lowest in NYC, it is still a 3-1 edge for the DNC. Democrats have no business losing that district. But, THE VOTING PUBLIC IS TIRED OF OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
3 to 1 Dems to GOP, a district the Dems have had for nearly 90 YEARS.....DIFFICULT!!!
What kind of ganga is she smoking?
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They lost because Weiner was showing his weiner around to people....I mean there's no other way to put it. I would have voted for a Republican if I was there.
Yeah, ok. You are talking about a state that has a district which reelected Rangel despite his 11 counts of ethical violations.
It had nothing to do with Weiner. Even the Democratic candidate's brother laid it at Obama's feet.
“The public is rightfully very angry at government right now, and David being an elected official took more of the brunt of this anger,’’ said his brother, Councilman Mark Weprin. “The president took some of the heat [also].’’
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Yeah, ok. You are talking about a state that has a district which reelected Rangle despite his 11 counts of ethical violations.
It had nothing to do with Weiner. Even the Democratic candidate's brother laid it at Obama's feet.
“The public is rightfully very angry at government right now, and David being an elected official took more of the brunt of this anger,’’ said his brother, Councilman Mark Weprin. “The president took some of the heat [also].’’
I feel bad for the majority of blacks how badly they are brainwashed and unable to see reality of Obama through anything but race colored glasses. Its pathetic.
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/14/for-democrats-its-2010-all-over-again
Even the guru at NYT is panicing over 2012 now.
Tidal Wave and Tsunami coming in 2012.
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Nice to see that my vote counted--- Another body blow to the Criminal Democratic machine.
All the rest of you chicken shit libs in "safe" districts are on notice.
Your time is almost up.
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Yeah, ok. You are talking about a state that has a district which reelected Rangel despite his 11 counts of ethical violations.
It had nothing to do with Weiner. Even the Democratic candidate's brother laid it at Obama's feet.
“The public is rightfully very angry at government right now, and David being an elected official took more of the brunt of this anger,’’ said his brother, Councilman Mark Weprin. “The president took some of the heat [also].’’
If that was true then Kathy Houdal would not have won Republican Chris Lee's seat in April just a few months ago.... ::)
Its a horse and you're blaming it on a fucking zebra. When an elected official gets caught in a bad scandal then it unlikely that the party will maintain the seat. ::)
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Nice to see that my vote counted--- Another body blow to the Criminal Democratic machine.
All the rest of you chicken shit libs in "safe" districts are on notice.
Your time is almost up.
2012 is going to be Reagan - Mondale - if they even allow Obama to run again.
The Dems have to defend 22 Senate seats, many of which are highly vulnerable, and obama is going to be an albatross on the ticket.
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If that was true then Kathy Houdal would not have won Republican Chris Lee's seat in April just a few months ago.... ::)
Its a horse and you're blaming it on a fucking zebra. When an elected official gets caught in a bad scandal then it unlikely that the party will maintain the seat. ::)
LMAO - keep your head in the sand bro.
Take off your race colored glasses for a second and wake up the fact that Obama is destroying the Demo party on all fronts.
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If that was true then Kathy Houdal would not have won Republican Chris Lee's seat in April just a few months ago.... ::)
Its a horse and you're blaming it on a fucking zebra. When an elected official gets caught in a bad scandal then it unlikely that the party will maintain the seat. ::)
Don't you think that that political climate and sentiment can change in 5 months? The economy has gone nowhere and the president is on TV spewing the same economic plan from the past 2 years. You are fooling yourself believing that the Dems only lost because of Weiner. Most people who had anything to do with this race AND WHO LIVE IN THAT STATE proclaim that it is a referendum on the Democratic party and Obama.
We will just have to agree to disagree. But, lets say you are right. You are wrong, but lets act like you are right for once. If a Republican won this district, in which Dems have a 3-1 edge and had a strangle hold since 1920, just because the previous office holder took lewd photos of himself. Then imagine how much the GOP will win next year if the economy continues to tank and the Democrats are forced to explain why none of their policies (stim bills) have helped.
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If that was true then Kathy Houdal would not have won Republican Chris Lee's seat in April just a few months ago.... ::)
Its a horse and you're blaming it on a fucking zebra. When an elected official gets caught in a bad scandal then it unlikely that the party will maintain the seat. ::)
That was a 3-man race (so to speak). A Tea Party candidate took 9% of the vote in NY-26. That's how Hochul won.
NY-9 was a TWO-MAN race and Turner beat Welperin soundly by 8 points.
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Great article. Obama is killing off the Demo party.
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By Sean Trende - September 14, 2011
‹‹Previous Page |1 | 2 |
Share tweetmeme_style = 'compact'; tweetmeme_url = 'http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/09/14/new_york_9_and_the_democratic_coalition_111328.
Last night, Republican Bob Turner won a surprisingly strong victory in New York's 9th Congressional District. As I noted after the New York-26 special election last May, special elections don't have much predictive power; we can't use this race to forecast the outcome of the 2012 presidential race -- or even whether Republicans will retain their majority in the House. Still, just as the special election in NY-26 can be seen as part of a gradual decline of Republican fortunes in upstate New York, yesterday's results in NY-9 tells us a bit about the state of the Democratic coalition, both in terms of its fading prospects among white voters, and the effects of packing its most reliable voters into a few districts.
To understand what’s going on in New York-9, let’s travel back to 1988. That year, Democrats won only 40 percent of the white vote in this country, en route to an eight-point defeat for their national ticket, headed by Michael Dukakis. Democrats’ losses among whites were broad: Upper-class whites, suburbanites, and even working-class whites voted Republican. The Democrats’ congressional majorities, while large, were also increasingly shaky; as old Southern Democrats retired, they were increasingly being replaced with Republicans.
In 1992, Democrats nominated Bill Clinton for president, who famously professed to be a “new” Democrat. Clinton promised to “end welfare as we know it,” while eschewing tax increases for the middle class.
This paid substantial dividends among the white voters with whom Democrats had struggled for almost four decades. While Republicans had won 60 percent or more of the two-party white vote in 1980, 1984 and 1988, Clinton came a point away from being the first Democrat since LBJ to carry whites. It wasn’t just any whites among whom Clinton improved the Democratic vote share. The white working class -- which never fully left the Democratic Party, especially at the congressional level -- warmed toward a candidate who didn’t seem antagonistic to their values, while suburban whites appreciated his fiscal realism.
Clinton repeated the feat in 1996, but afterward, the Democratic performance among whites began to decline. As the party’s nominees became more liberal, the Clinton coalition slowly dissipated. Al Gore won only 44 percent of the two-party vote among whites nationally, while John Kerry won just 41 percent of the white vote. In 2008, for all the hype about Obama’s “broad” coalition, he only won 43 percent of the white vote, about two points better than Kerry. Obama’s win came almost entirely from turning out more minority voters, and doing better among them.
Obama has had problems with working-class whites in particular. Recall that on the eve of the Democratic convention in 2008, McCain was almost even with Obama in the RCP Average. Gallup’s tracking poll -- which had McCain ahead -- showed that Obama’s weakness was largely due to an underperformance in this group. McCain’s lead among high-school-educated whites at that point was 23 points. Among whites with some college, he led by 21 points. After the Republican convention, those numbers were 22 points and 28 points, respectively.
These voters were brought into Obama’s camp only after the financial collapse; by mid-October, McCain led by only six points among those with no college degrees and 11 points among those with some college. This shift allowed Obama to win the election, although by a smaller margin than many expected.
Over the course of Obama’s presidency, it has been more of the same. Consider the following chart:
Obama’s overall weekly job approval is at 41 percent, but it is concentrated heavily among African American adults. To put this in perspective, in Gallup’s October 1994 polling, President Clinton’s job approval was also at 41 percent. Yet his job approval was five points higher among whites (38 percent); his job approval among blacks had sunk to a still-healthy, but not otherworldly, 63 percent. You may say, “That’s only five points' difference,” but it’s a good bet that Weprin wishes Obama’s approval rating had been about five points higher in New York’s 9th district.
This is important because the African American vote is unevenly distributed in our country. Although blacks make up 13 percent of the population according to census figures, African American voters tend to be packed into a few districts. This “packing” has indeed increased the number of African Americans in Congress, but it has come at the expense of having more districts where African American voters have little influence -- about 90 percent of the districts in the nation have African American populations of less than 30 percent, a few points more than was the case in 1970 (despite a two-point increase in the African American share of the population).
Which brings us to NY-9. The following map (courtesy of Dave’s Redistricting Tool) shows precincts in Queens and Brooklyn by race, with New York-9’s outlines superimposed (blue precincts are African American, green are Hispanic, red are white):
As you can see, this is largely a combination of white precincts in central Queens and South Brooklyn. It’s an impressive gerrymander; standing alone, South Brooklyn would be about a 55 percent McCain district, even allowing for some voters in the 13th. It would be easy to make this a Democratic stronghold, but it would come at a cost of jeopardizing minority control of the neighboring districts. Although it is only 62 percent white, it is also only 4 percent black; Latinos and Asians in the district vote less proportionately than their white and African American counterparts.
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Moreover, these are working-class whites; the last of the “Archie Bunkers.” Many of the firefighters and police officers who gave their lives on 9/11 hailed from this district. The median income for the district is about $55,000 a year, which is the lowest of any of the non-majority minority districts in the city area. By contrast, in all four suburban Long Island districts, the median income is around $80,000 a year. Many of the surviving white ethnic communities are in this district; 12 percent of the district still identifies as Italian, 7 percent as Irish.
Estimates of the Jewish population are more difficult to calculate, but Jews probably constitute about 25 percent of the population (and are probably higher as a share of the electorate). While the most heavily Orthodox Jewish communities such as Borough Park (about 70 percent for McCain) are strategically placed in other districts, the Jewish voters here still tend to be more conservative than the Jewish communities around Miami or in Manhattan. Many are Russian immigrants (around 7 percent of the district) who tend to lack affinity for government intervention in the economy. Still, while the Jewish presence is significant, it can’t explain everything that is going on here.
Overall, we can see here a microcosm of the Democrats’ performance among whites, especially working-class whites. The following table shows the Democratic presidential vote in the district over the past few election cycles (the 1988 number is Democratic performance under the 1992 lines; the district’s base partisanship did not change appreciably in the 2000 redistricting), as well as how the Democratic candidate’s performance in the district compared to his share of the national vote:
Democratic performance in the district improved greatly from 1988 to 1992, and continued to improve in the '90s. When Anthony Weiner ran in 1998, after Chuck Schumer vacated the seat to run for Senate, he received 66 percent of the vote there.
Since then, however, there has been a substantial decline in Democratic performance here as the party began to nominate presidential candidates who had more difficulty relating to working-class whites than had Clinton or Gore. Today the district probably leans Democratic at the presidential level by a weaker margin than it has since Watergate. As congressional voting increasingly aligns with presidential voting, this becomes a potential problem for the Democrats. In some respects, this can be seen as a continuation of trends we saw in 2010, when a lot of Democrats in working-class white districts saw their vote shares decline significantly. Many of them survived because they drew weak opponents, and because their vote shares were declining from pretty solid performances in 2008, but for some, including Paul Kanjorski and Jim Oberstar, the decline was career-ending. New York-9 appears to be in this vein.
Again, we have to resist reading too much into a single special election. There won’t be too many districts with large conservative Jewish populations. Nor will there be many Democratic candidates who get the size of the national debt wrong by an order of magnitude, as did Weprin.
At the same time, I think that if Democrats had a 2012 nominee like Bill Clinton who related well to the white working class, they wouldn’t be in trouble here. But they don’t; they have a nominee whose coalition is much narrower than Clinton’s was (although it is deeper among core Democratic constituencies). If the result in NY-9 is largely about white working-class voters continuing to align their congressional votes with their presidential votes, it could open a whole new crop of seats up to potential competition.
‹‹Previous Page |1 | 2 |
Sean Trende is Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at strende@realclearpolitics.com.
Page Printed from: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/09/14/new_york_9_and_the_democratic_coalition_111328-full.html at September 14, 2011 - 06:49:59 AM PDT
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That was a 3-man race (so to speak). A Tea Party candidate took 9% of the vote in NY-26. That's how Hochul won.
NY-9 was a TWO-MAN race and Turner beat Welperin soundly by 8 points.
Thanks for that great information.
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Obama’s overall weekly job approval is at 41 percent, but it is concentrated heavily among African American adults. To put this in perspective, in Gallup’s October 1994 polling, President Clinton’s job approval was also at 41 percent. Yet his job approval was five points higher among whites (38 percent); his job approval among blacks had sunk to a still-healthy, but not otherworldly, 63 percent. You may say, “That’s only five points' difference,” but it’s a good bet that Weprin wishes Obama’s approval rating had been about five points higher in New York’s 9th district.
This is important because the African American vote is unevenly distributed in our country. Although blacks make up 13 percent of the population according to census figures, African American voters tend to be packed into a few districts. This “packing” has indeed increased the number of African Americans in Congress, but it has come at the expense of having more districts where African American voters have little influence -- about 90 percent of the districts in the nation have African American populations of less than 30 percent, a few points more than was the case in 1970 (despite a two-point increase in the African American share of the population).
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vince - this is what i was trying to explain to you a few weeks ago.
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Obama’s overall weekly job approval is at 41 percent, but it is concentrated heavily among African American adults. To put this in perspective, in Gallup’s October 1994 polling, President Clinton’s job approval was also at 41 percent. Yet his job approval was five points higher among whites (38 percent); his job approval among blacks had sunk to a still-healthy, but not otherworldly, 63 percent. You may say, “That’s only five points' difference,” but it’s a good bet that Weprin wishes Obama’s approval rating had been about five points higher in New York’s 9th district.
This is important because the African American vote is unevenly distributed in our country. Although blacks make up 13 percent of the population according to census figures, African American voters tend to be packed into a few districts. This “packing” has indeed increased the number of African Americans in Congress, but it has come at the expense of having more districts where African American voters have little influence -- about 90 percent of the districts in the nation have African American populations of less than 30 percent, a few points more than was the case in 1970 (despite a two-point increase in the African American share of the population).
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vince - this is what i was trying to explain to you a few weeks ago.
(http://www.gifbin.com/bin/sw50sw8sw578.gif)
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Thanks for that great information.
You're welcome.
And, it makes the point that the LAST thing we need right now is a 3rd party. As long as the Tea Party challenges a GOP guy straight up in the GOP primary, the winner has a much better chance of getting the spot.
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You're welcome.
And, it makes the point that the LAST thing we need right now is a 3rd party. As long as the Tea Party challenges a GOP guy straight up in the GOP primary, the winner has a much better chance of getting the spot.
3rd parties dont work but act as a spoiler so long as we have an electoral college.
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Obama’s overall weekly job approval is at 41 percent, but it is concentrated heavily among African American adults. To put this in perspective, in Gallup’s October 1994 polling, President Clinton’s job approval was also at 41 percent. Yet his job approval was five points higher among whites (38 percent); his job approval among blacks had sunk to a still-healthy, but not otherworldly, 63 percent. You may say, “That’s only five points' difference,” but it’s a good bet that Weprin wishes Obama’s approval rating had been about five points higher in New York’s 9th district.
This is important because the African American vote is unevenly distributed in our country. Although blacks make up 13 percent of the population according to census figures, African American voters tend to be packed into a few districts. This “packing” has indeed increased the number of African Americans in Congress, but it has come at the expense of having more districts where African American voters have little influence -- about 90 percent of the districts in the nation have African American populations of less than 30 percent, a few points more than was the case in 1970 (despite a two-point increase in the African American share of the population).
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vince - this is what i was trying to explain to you a few weeks ago.
And, that's why, Vince, Obama can have 90% of the black vote and still get KILLED in 2012. Ask Carter and Mondale. They have at least 90% of the black vote; yet Reagan crushed both of them.
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3rd parties dont work but act as a spoiler so long as we have an electoral college.
You mean, so long as it's "Winner-Take-All" with the electoral college. Bush barely, and I mean, BARELY won Florida in 2000. But he got all 25 of the EC votes from the Sunshine State.
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You mean, so long as it's "Winner-Take-All" with the electoral college. Bush barely, and I mean, BARELY won Florida in 2000. But he got all 25 of the EC votes from the Sunshine State.
Its almost mathmatically impossible in a three way race for any candidate to rack up the needed 270 EC votes needed to win.
Than what? We are going to possibly have a pres who can be potus by winning NY, CA, and IL?
GMAFB - that is a recipe for pure chaos.
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Its almost mathmatically impossible in a three way race for any candidate to rack up the needed 270 EC votes needed to win.
Than what? We are going to possibly have a pres who can be potus by winning NY, CA, and IL?
GMAFB - that is a recipe for pure chaos.
That's why I don't want a three-man race. Again, the Tea Party guys should run within the GOP primary. That's how they kicked liberal hind parts in 2010. More often than not, the RINO/moderate Republican runs 3rd party after losing the primary (i.e. Charlie Crist in Florida, after losing to Marco Rubio; granted, Rubio still clobbered both him and Kendrick Meek).
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Let's review
New York Congressmen resigns in disgrace and the opposing party has an historic win in a special election
it must be a referendum on the party in the White House
right?
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Let's review
New York Congressmen resigns in disgrace and the opposing party has an historic win in a special election
it must be a referendum on the party in the White House
right?
It was Straw - this district is 3 -1 Demo and Obama won by 15 points I believe.
Ed Koch got involved and made this election solely about Obama and even Weprin said as much. Wiener was barely mentioned in this race.
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It was Straw - this district is 3 -1 Demo and Obama won by 15 points I believe.
Ed Koch got involved and made this election solely about Obama and even Weprin said as much. Wiener was barely mentioned in this race.
I assume it must be the same for NY 26th Congressional District
that was only earlier this year so I'm sure you remember it
This dude resigns in disgrace and a Dem wins in a special election in Republican dominated district
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STRAW - READ THIS
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Twin defeats spark Democratic fears
By: Jonathan Martin and Ben Smith and Jake Sherman
September 14, 2011 04:57 AM EDT
HOWARD BEACH, N.Y.—The Democratic Party’s rare loss of a congressional seat in its urban heartland Tuesday, accompanied by a blowout defeat in a Nevada special election, marked the latest in a string of demoralizing setbacks that threatened to deepen the party’s crisis of confidence and raise concerns about President Barack Obama’s political fortunes.
In New York, Republican Bob Turner soundly defeated Democrat David Weprin in a House contest that — in the view of party leaders, at least — featured an anemic urban machine, distracted labor unions and disloyal voters. In Nevada, a consequential state for the president’s reelection strategy, Democrats suffered a runaway loss rooted in a weak showing in Reno’s Washoe County, a key bellwether.
Even before the polls closed, the recriminations — something short of panic, and considerably more than mere grumbling — had begun. On a high-level campaign conference call Tuesday afternoon, Democratic donors and strategists commiserated over their disappointment in Obama. A source on the call described the mood as “awful.”
“People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” said the source.
Less expansive but equally telling were the remarks of House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, who in a conversation with reporters Tuesday morning said bluntly that Obama would take some blame for the two special election losses.
“I think every election reflects on the person in charge, but do I think it is an overall statement on the president alone? No,” said Hoyer. “Do I think it will be interpreted as being a statement on Obama? That’s probably correct.”
A senior Hill Democratic aide was more direct in attempting to explain the New York loss: “The approval ratings for the guy at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue cratered.”
A Turner consultant, Steve Goldberg, validated that assessment: “It was all Obama — not even a thought of anything else.”
The president’s feisty new jobs plan has probably preempted open revolt in his party — though a Bloomberg poll released Wednesday morning found that 51 percent of Americans don’t believe it will help lower the unemployment rate. Senior party figures are on board with — or are at least resigned to — the White House’s leadership. And some Democratic insiders sought to put a better face on their diminished state — before adding that they wanted to see a tougher Obama.
“Let’s face it — it has been a tough summer for Democrats,” said Jack Quinn, a top lobbyist and former White House Counsel to President Clinton. “But I really do think that people are feeling better.”
Quinn said, however, that Obama must confront the GOP.
“They didn’t get the House and say, ‘We want half a loaf.’ They’ve said, ‘we want the whole g——— oven,’” he argued. “It’s time for the president to really draw some hard lines here.”
Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), among the most senior House Democrats, sketched out those lines.
“The Republicans want us to repeal the 20th century, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, to turn us back to the robber barons running the country, and to eviscerate the environmental and other regulations to protect public health and safety,” said Waxman. “And to cut spending in ways that would be very harmful to people who rely on government.”
Others welcomed the notion of a new Obama — even if message doesn’t seem to have yet made its way north to New York or west to Nevada.
Rep. Eliot Engel, a New York Democrat who represents parts of the Bronx and suburban New York, said the “feisty Barack Obama, the one that we knew and loved and voted for in 2008, reappeared last week.”
“I think and I hope that that’s going to be the Obama were going to see from now to election time,” Engel said Tuesday, before dashing up to New York to help turn out Democratic voters for Weprin.
But the party’s structural weaknesses were on full display in the stunning New York defeat — the party’s first loss of a Brooklyn or Queens congressional seat in a generation. The Queens Democratic Party’s decision to nominate Weprin, an Orthodox Jewish member of the state Assembly who lives in another district, was driven by “the most blatant ethnic politics,” said Mitchell Moss, a professor of urban planning at New York University. It was an old-school play that failed: Turner fought hard for Jewish votes over the issues of Israel and same-sex marriage, and Orthodox leaders were well-represented at his victory party at an Italian restaurant in Howard Beach.
Much of New York’s still-powerful labor movement, meanwhile, sat the race out — distracted, demoralized, and with other fish to fry. The labor-backed Working Families Party, a juggernaut in other city races, chose to put its resources Tuesday into a bitter internecine battle with the Brooklyn Democratic organization — leaving Weprin to rely on the rusting party machine.
It was a nightmare scenario for Democrats that threatens to repeat itself on the national level, as major unions turn away from their traditional level of engagement. AFL-CIO leaders have talked about focusing their spending on state-level races. The giant SEIU has discussed replacing what had been an all-out campaign for Obama in 2008 with a campaign more focused on the issue of jobs.
And labor union leaders in Washington watched with frustration as a heavily Democratic, pro-union, blue-collar district slipped away.
“Obama needs to reconnect with labor, get in the trenches with us again,” said a veteran labor official. “There is, among my members, a sense of disconnect with him. He needs to signal to us that he is a labor champion, not just supported by labor.”
And so as they eye Obama’s reelection a year away, many Democratic leaders are taking an unexpectedly passive line. They’re pinning their hopes on the chance that the Republican Party nominates a figure who will, essentially, defeat him or herself.
Asked who he’d like to see the Republicans nominate, Montana Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer suggested: “Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry — those would all be good ones to run against.”
Ben Smith reported from Howard Beach, N.Y. Jonathan Martin and Jake Sherman reported from Washington, D.C.
© 2011 POLITICO LLC
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cool.. Repubs will get in and by 2013 everything will be awesome like when the last republican left it
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cool.. Repubs will get in and by 2013 everything will be awesome like when the last republican left it
Red Herring.
People are sick of Obama's policies across the board.
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Let's review
New York Congressmen resigns in disgrace and the opposing party has an historic win in a special election
it must be a referendum on the party in the White House
right?
Again, a three-man race in NY-26 with a Tea Party candidate taking 9% of the vote.
And the Dem won by 4 points, 47-43.
This was a two-man race and the GOP candidate won by 8.
So, the formula is simple. As long as you don't split the GOP vote, the GOP winner has a great shot to beat the Democrat.
Liberals are losing it, left and right, about this one. To try and brush this off, especially with NY-9 being of much greater importance to them than NY-26, is ridiculous.
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New York 9: Stunning Repudiation of Chuck Schumer
The Washington Examiner ^ | 09/14/11 | Michael Barone
This result is a rebuke to Barack Obama, but it is a rebuke as well—a stinging one, perhaps more stinging—to Senator Charles Schumer. He represented much of this district for 18 years and the now disgraced Anthony Weiner was his staffer and pretty obviously Schumer’s chosen successor as congressman when he ran successfully for the Senate in 1998. In addition, Schumer has made it his special project to win back white middle class voters in places like metro New York for the Democratic party. In January 2007, just in time for the new Democratic majority in Congress, he published a book, Positively American: Winning Back the Middle-Class Majority One Family at a Time. It is a thoughtful essay on how Democrats can win the votes of the kind of voter Schumer himself has won over in his career as a congressman and senator, with specific policy recommendations as well as public relations advice. As one of the three Democratic leaders of the Democratic majority in the Senate—and by common consent the one who outshines in intellect the other two put together—Schumer has played an important role in fashioning Democratic policies, including but not limited to the 2009 stimulus package and Obamacare.
(Excerpt) Read more at campaign2012.washingtone xaminer.com ...
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Obama's Israel policy seen as factor that cost him House seat
YNet News ^ | September 14, 2011 | Staff
Did President Obama's positions on Israel cost him a seat in the House? The Republicans have scored an upset victory in a House race that started as a contest to replace New York Rep. Anthony Weiner, who was forced to step down following a sex-texting scandal, but became a referendum on US President Barack Obama's policies.
Retired media executive and political novice Bob Turner defeated Democratic state Assemblyman David Weprin on Tuesday in the special election to fill the seat vacated by Weiner, a seven-term Democrat who resigned in June.
According to the New York Times, Turner took advantage of the discontent among the Jewish community with (Obama’s policy toward Israel) and his conduct pertaining to the Middle East peace process.
(Excerpt) Read more at ynetnews.com ...
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Obama’s overall weekly job approval is at 41 percent, but it is concentrated heavily among African American adults. To put this in perspective, in Gallup’s October 1994 polling, President Clinton’s job approval was also at 41 percent. Yet his job approval was five points higher among whites (38 percent); his job approval among blacks had sunk to a still-healthy, but not otherworldly, 63 percent. You may say, “That’s only five points' difference,” but it’s a good bet that Weprin wishes Obama’s approval rating had been about five points higher in New York’s 9th district.
This is important because the African American vote is unevenly distributed in our country. Although blacks make up 13 percent of the population according to census figures, African American voters tend to be packed into a few districts. This “packing” has indeed increased the number of African Americans in Congress, but it has come at the expense of having more districts where African American voters have little influence -- about 90 percent of the districts in the nation have African American populations of less than 30 percent, a few points more than was the case in 1970 (despite a two-point increase in the African American share of the population).
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vince - this is what i was trying to explain to you a few weeks ago.
Anyone who thinks that New York is going to go red in the election is a complete moron. A congressional election is not the same as a presidential election. The seats will fall back to where they were next elections
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Red Herring.
People are sick of Obama's policies across the board.
Obamas republican ass policies...
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Anyone who thinks that New York is going to go red in the election is a complete moron. A congressional election is not the same as a presidential election. The seats will fall back to where they were next elections
LMFAO - it doesnt have to go red for obama to get blown out.
If Obama is forced to devote resources in previously safe places - he is done.
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Again, a three-man race in NY-26 with a Tea Party candidate taking 9% of the vote.
And the Dem won by 4 points, 47-43.
This was a two-man race and the GOP candidate won by 8.
So, the formula is simple. As long as you don't split the GOP vote, the GOP winner has a great shot to beat the Democrat.
Liberals are losing it, left and right, about this one. To try and brush this off, especially with NY-9 being of much greater importance to them than NY-26, is ridiculous.
so when a Dem wins in a Repub stronghold it's not significant but when the opposite happens it's a referendum
what I see are two special elections where the party of the disgraced former seat holder loses.
the saying "all politics is local" comes to mind
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so when a Dem wins in a Repub stronghold it's not significant but when the opposite happens it's a referendum
what I see are two special elections where the party of the disgraced former seat holder loses.
the saying "all politics is local" comes to mind
Hardly!! Turner ran his campaign, putting Obama's policies on blast. Welperin was hardly a factor.
Big Picture, Straw. The Dems are less than a year removed from one of the most savage beatings in history. Now they lose NY-9!!!
Losing a seat, that was once a lock, on top of the 2010 massacre, spells BIG TROUBLE for Obama.
The liberals hardly see this as a one-for-one thing. They'd give back NY-26 in a heartbeat to get NY-9 back.
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Hardly!! Turner ran his campaign, putting Obama's policies on blast. Welperin was hardly a factor.
Big Picture, Straw. The Dems are less than a year removed from one of the most savage beatings in history. Now they lose NY-9!!!
Losing a seat, that was once a lock, on top of the 2010 massacre, spells BIG TROUBLE for Obama.
The liberals hardly see this as a one-for-one thing. They'd give back NY-26 in a heartbeat to get NY-9 back.
Neither election changed the balance of power in Congress so I don't see what anyone on the right is crowing about or the left is crying about (and right wing blogs that tell us how people on the left are "feeling" are pretty much worthless to me)
we'll see what happens in 2012
I don't doubt that Obama will have problems but the election (as always) will come down to two choices and most people will cast a vote against someone rather than in favor of someone
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Neither election changed the balance of power in Congress so I don't see what anyone on the right is crowing about or the left is crying about (and right wing blogs that tell us how people on the left are "feeling" are pretty much worthless to me)
we'll see what happens in 2012
I don't doubt that Obama will have problems but the election (as always) will come down to two choices and most people will cast a vote against someone rather than in favor of someone
HP and DU ain't right-wing blogs.
If you get in any more denial, I'm going to think you're Egyptian.
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HP and DU ain't right-wing blogs.
If you get in any more denial, I'm going to think you're Egyptian.
I have never been to DU and rarely ever look at HP
Here's a news flash for you - just because someone writes their opinion on some topic doesn't mean you or I have to agree with it
I've already acknowledged (many times in fact) of my issues with Obama but that won't change the fact that when it comes time to vote next November it's hard to imagine any scenario where I vote for a Republican. I think this will be the same for most people who voted for Obama in the past as well. It won't be a vote for Obama as much as it will be a vote against a Republican. Time will tell who is correct.
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I assume it must be the same for NY 26th Congressional District
that was only earlier this year so I'm sure you remember it
This dude resigns in disgrace and a Dem wins in a special election in Republican dominated district
Nice try shitstain. He lost by 2 points or so because the "Tea Party" candidate was a democratic plant that siphoned away votes from the GOP candidate. If I'm not mistaken, the 2% or so margin that lost it for the GOP was the exact number of votes that the bogus "Tea Party" candidate received. The left can't win on the issues or win on the facts, so they have to cheat their way to victory.
Being that I live in the 9th, I am in a position to know what this election was about. Weprin is a lifelong fixture in this district. His brother is in politics, his father was in politics (and has a street named after him a few miles from where I live) and he has represented the democrats in the legislature for decades. The Weprin family is extremely powerful in the local Democratic machine here. The fact that an unknown Republican could swoop into this district and win is astounding. It had nothing to do with Weprin and everything to do with Obama.
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Nice try shitstain. He lost by 2 points or so because the "Tea Party" candidate was a democratic plant that siphoned away votes from the GOP candidate. If I'm not mistaken, the 2% or so margin that lost it for the GOP was the exact number of votes that the bogus "Tea Party" candidate received. The left can't win on the issues or win on the facts, so they have to cheat their way to victory.
Being that I live in the 9th, I am in a position to know what this election was about. Weprin is a lifelong fixture in this district. His brother is in politics, his father was in politics (and has a street named after him a few miles from where I live) and he has represented the democrats in the legislature for decades. The Weprin family is extremely powerful in the local Democratic machine here. The fact that an unknown Republican could swoop into this district and win is astounding. It had nothing to do with Weprin and everything to do with Obama.
shitstain ?
how creative
congrats on your glorious triumph
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Let's review
New York Congressmen resigns in disgrace and the opposing party has an historic win in a special election
it must be a referendum on the party in the White House
right?
You truly are one stupid fuck that lives in a carefully constructed far-leftist bubble.
Democrats outnumbered Republicans 3-1 in this district and had held the seat since 1927. A referendum on the party in the White House is exactly what this was.
Good job giving Blacken a run for his money for "Board's Dumbest". Comical.
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You truly are one stupid fuck that lives in a carefully constructed far-leftist bubble.
Democrats outnumbered Republicans 3-1 in this district and had held the seat since 1927. A referendum on the party in the White House is exactly what this was.
Good job giving Blacken a run for his money for "Board's Dumbest". Comical.
thanks kid, but I couldn't give less of a shit about your opinion of me
I don't live in NYC and the only election that concerns me is the one next November and if the Repubs win they will probably lower my taxes (again) anyway
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thanks kid, but I couldn't give less of a shit about your opinion of me
I don't live in NYC and the only election that concerns me is the one next November and if the Repubs win they will probably lower my taxes (again) anyway
Do you think I care about your view of my opinion towards you? Nope.
But I know you read my posts so let me repeat it: You are a moron living in a bubble.
If you have a problem with your low tax rate then feel free to cut a check to Uncle Sam anytime you feel like it. But we know hypocrites like you won't do that. Leading by example is not something far-lefties are fond of. ;)
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Do you think I care about your view of my opinion towards you? Nope.
But I know you read my posts so let me repeat it: You are a moron living in a bubble.
If you have a problem with your low tax rate then feel free to cut a check to Uncle Sam anytime you feel like it. But we know hypocrites like you won't do that. Leading by example is not something far-lefties are fond of. ;)
if you don't care then stop responding
I couldn't give a shit what some 25 year old dipshit thinks about me
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if you don't care then stop responding
I couldn't give a shit what some 25 year old dipshit thinks about me
You keep saying that yet you keep reading my posts.
Let me ask you again seeing as you're acting like the typical far-leftist and ignoring it: Why don't you write a check to Uncle Sam if you have a problem with your low tax rate? How does the tax rate that other Americans pay prevent you from paying what you think is fair for yourself? Lead by example, hypocrite.
Gifts to the United States
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Credit Accounting Branch
3700 East-West Highway, Room 622D
Hyattsville, MD 20782
There. Now you don't even have to Google it. ::)
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You keep saying that yet you keep reading my posts.
Let me ask you again seeing as you're acting like the typical far-leftist and ignoring it: Why don't you write a check to Uncle Sam if you have a problem with your low tax rate? How does the tax rate that other Americans pay prevent you from paying what you think is fair for yourself? Lead by example, hypocrite.
Gifts to the United States
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Credit Accounting Branch
3700 East-West Highway, Room 622D
Hyattsville, MD 20782
There. Now you don't even have to Google it. ::)
I'm impressed that you were able to use Google
you seem more angry tonight than usual
did you mother take away your XBox
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I'm impressed that you were able to use Google
you seem more angry tonight than usual
did you mother take away your XBox
Why do you keep avoiding such a simple question? Your obvious avoidance of it really shows what a hypocrite you are.
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Why do you keep avoiding such a simple question? Your obvious avoidance of it really shows what a hypocrite you are.
I ignore almost all of your posts
why are you such an angry little boy tonight ?
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I ignore almost all of your posts
why are you such an angry little boy tonight ?
Yes, your constant replies to them in this thread clearly indicates that you ignore them. ::)
Let me ask you a third time: You think your tax rates are too low so what is keeping you from cutting a check to Uncle Sam?
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Yes, your constant replies to them in this thread clearly indicates that you ignore them. ::)
Let me ask you a third time: You think your tax rates are too low so what is keeping you from cutting a check to Uncle Sam?
ok - I read this one
I take every write off that I can
what about you.
do you own a house or a business
what do you write off
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ok - I read this one
I take every write off that I can
what about you.
do you own a house or a business
what do you write off
Why? You clearly think you should be paying higher taxes. Why are you a hypocrite? No one is stopping you from cutting a check to Uncle Sam for an amount you think is fair.
Why don't you just admit that you want to steal other people's money while keeping as much of your own as you can?
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Why? You clearly think you should be paying higher taxes. Why are you a hypocrite? No one is stopping you from cutting a check to Uncle Sam for an amount you think is fair.
Why don't you just admit that you want to steal other people's money while keeping as much of your own as you can?
LoL
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GW and BF leveling a beatdown in this thread.
It's just painful to watch!
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In all fairness, Straw's support for the US Postal Service didn't work out too well.
Understandably, his confidence is shot.
He's too much of an "intellectual" to bitterly cling to guns or religion.
Instead he clings to his homosexuality and stupidity like a badge of honor.
Keep fighting the good fight!
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GW and BF leveling a beatdown in this thread.
It's just painful to watch!
I'm not convinced that I should get "upset" about a NYC special election congressional race
so far, my life hasn't changed
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I'm not convinced that I should get "upset" about a NYC special election congressional race
so far, my life hasn't changed
QFT-- see my post immediately preceding this one^
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In all fairness, Straw's support for the US Postal Service didn't work out too well.
Understandably, his confidence is shot.
He's too much of an "intellectual" to bitterly cling to guns or religion.
Instead he clings to his homosexuality and stupidity like a badge of honor.
Keep fighting the good fight!
LOL
dude you finally made me laugh out loud
probably your best post that I've read
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LOL
dude you finally made me laugh out loud
probably your best post that I've read
;D
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James Carville: Obama should ‘panic’
Politico ^
James Carville: Obama should ‘panic’
By: Mackenzie Weinger September 15, 2011 06:18 AM EDT
Democratic strategist James Carville has just one word of advice for President Barack Obama: panic.
In a CNN op-ed, Carville said Tuesday’s two special election results are a warning to the White House – and a sign the president must make drastic changes now to stave off the Republican momentum.
It’s time to panic, he wrote.
“People often ask me what advice I would give the White House about various things,” Carville wrote on Wednesday. “Today I was mulling over election results from New York and Nevada while thinking about that very question. What should the White House do now? One word came to mind: Panic.”
Carville said Democrats are “past sending out talking points” and said he would tell the president, “The time has come to demand a plan of action that requires a complete change from the direction you are headed.”
Carville’s advice: “Fire. Indict. Fight.”
Obama must fire someone – “No – fire a lot of people” — because the current team is just not working, Carville wrote.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
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Pelosi: Losing Weiner’s Seat Was ‘Good Day’—Because Democrats Will ‘Buckle Down’
CNSNews ^
Pelosi: Losing Weiner’s Seat Was ‘Good Day’—Because Democrats Will ‘Buckle Down’ By Edwin Mora September 15, 2011
(CNSNews.com) - House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.) said on Wednesday that the Democrats’ loss of the special election in New York’s 9th Congressional District—which was formerly represented by Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner—was actually a “good day” because it made Democrats realize they needed to intensify their efforts to prevail in next year’s elections.
“In terms of New York, yeah, that was a disappointment. We would have preferred to win,” said Pelosi.
“It was a good day because it was something where other people realize we have to buckle down in order to win this,” she said.
“It does not alter our plan for taking back the House,” she added.
Pelosi said that Democrats remain “very optimistic” about doing that.
“We’re optimistic about the recruitment of candidates, the raising of money, the raising of the issues that are out there, and that’s positive for us,” she said.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnsnews.com ...
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I was sunk by Obama: Weprin
NYPost with AP ^ | Sept. 16, 201i | CARL CAMPANILE
Democrat David Weprin said yesterday that President Obama’s sagging popularity among Queens and Brooklyn voters cost him the election for ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner’s congressional seat.
In a stunning upset, Weprin was trounced by Republican Bob Turner, whose campaign had tied him to the president.
“The message of the campaign was ‘Send Obama a message,’ ” said Weprin, a Queens state assemblyman. “I think the problem was that he’s the president and people are frustrated, and it’s just natural to take it out on the top guy -- or the top guy’s party.
“As much as I tried to make it about David Weprin or Bob Turner, I don’t think that resonated to voters. I think that voters looked at it as a referendum on the president,’’ Weprin said.
Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1 in the district.
During one press conference, Weprin refused to say whether he backed Obama’s re-election. In fact, he did not mention the president in his literature, nor did he seek Obama’s endorsement.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...