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Fifty-six percent of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail.
Including the 2008 election, Americans' predictions of the four prior presidential elections were also generally accurate.
In three separate measurements in 2004, Americans thought Bush would be the winner in two and were split in their predictions in the other, conducted immediately after the Democratic convention. In the final prediction, from mid-October, 56% thought Bush would win and 36% thought Kerry would.
The accuracy of the 2000 election prediction is harder to evaluate, given that Al Gore won the popular vote and George W. Bush the electoral vote. In four out of five measurements that year, Americans thought Bush would win, though in the final measurement, taken in mid-September, Americans gave Gore the edge.
In an August 1996 poll, Americans overwhelmingly believed incumbent Bill Clinton (69%) would defeat Bob Dole (24%).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154670/Americans-See-Obama-Solid-Favorite-Win-Election.aspx
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nonsense. 175% of Americans know he is a commie eskimo traitor and will lose in a landslide.
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They have absolute proof ;D
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Slaves to the Government Class
Townhall.com ^ | May 24, 2012 | Kyle Olsen
Posted on May 24, 2012 10:33:20 AM EDT by Kaslin
Over the past year, a lot of people have been talking about “the 1%” versus “the 99%.” But if you’re concerned about one class exploiting another for economic gain, that’s the wrong way to look at the problem.
See an EAGnews.org exclusive animation explaining the situation here.
The protesters are right about one thing: there are gross class inequities in America.
There is one class that works more hours per day, more days per year, for more years of their lives. They have less job security, they pay more for health coverage, and their retirements are not guaranteed. Their incomes are determined by their performance, limited by economic reality, and tied to the fortunes of their employers. This is the private-sector producer class.
Part of what private-sector workers produce is taken for the benefit of another class, the government class.
The government class plays by a different set of rules, dictated by unions and implemented by the politicians they help elect. For government union members, income is not determined by job performance, but by how many years they’ve managed to stick around. They’ll work fewer hours, get more vacation time, and make more money than their producer class colleagues.
They’ll get better health coverage, and it’ll cost them less. The government class will retire at an earlier age and with a pension providing a guaranteed income, something fewer than 1 in 10 producer-class workers enjoy.
In Wisconsin, the government class makes up 14% of the population, exploiting the other 86%, the producer class.
The average Wisconsin state employee makes about $70,000 annually in salary and benefits, while the private-sector workers whose taxes pay for it earn about $15,000-a-year less. Talk about income disparity!
The government class is powerful because government employees are members of unions that contribute heavily to political campaigns. And in Wisconsin, no single group funnels more money into politics than teachers unions.
As the producer class struggled with a sluggish economy, Milwaukee public school teachers were rewarded for their political support by getting a 5% pay increase for the current school year.
Compared to the producer class, Milwaukee’s teachers are getting a pretty sweet deal. When school is in session, teachers work almost 4 hours less each week than the standard private sector employee does. And instead of getting the usual two weeks off each year, Milwaukee teachers enjoy nearly 14 weeks vacation. All told, the typical producer-class employee works well over 600 hours a year more than the typical government school employee.
You would think with this workload, total compensation for government teachers would be a lot less than for private-sector workers. But when you add salary, retirement and health benefits, a first-year teacher’s total compensation is almost $56 per contracted hour worked. For a fifth-year teacher, it’s over $60 an hour. A tenth year teacher, more than $66 an hour. And teachers can retire sooner, too, at age 57.
If that sounds generous to you, you’re not alone. Producer-class workers earn less than $735 a week. For a typical 40-hour week, that works out to just over $18 an hour.
Of course, there’s a cost to all this generosity. If you’re in the producer class, you’re working harder than ever to pay for it all. And yet, mobs of government workers have besieged the capital for months, complaining that you’re not working hard enough, that you need to pay even more.
Government employees make up a small sliver of Wisconsin’s workforce, just 14%, and it’s time they stopped pushing the other 86% of us around.
Next time you see government employees demanding that you sacrifice even more for them, remind them that a public servant is supposed to serve the public, not turn the public into their servants.
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Fifty-six percent of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail.
Including the 2008 election, Americans' predictions of the four prior presidential elections were also generally accurate.
In three separate measurements in 2004, Americans thought Bush would be the winner in two and were split in their predictions in the other, conducted immediately after the Democratic convention. In the final prediction, from mid-October, 56% thought Bush would win and 36% thought Kerry would.
The accuracy of the 2000 election prediction is harder to evaluate, given that Al Gore won the popular vote and George W. Bush the electoral vote. In four out of five measurements that year, Americans thought Bush would win, though in the final measurement, taken in mid-September, Americans gave Gore the edge.
In an August 1996 poll, Americans overwhelmingly believed incumbent Bill Clinton (69%) would defeat Bob Dole (24%).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154670/Americans-See-Obama-Solid-Favorite-Win-Election.aspx
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LOL. Yeah, Barack kardashian is polling at 45 vs Romney today in Gallup.
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LOL. Yeah, Barack kardashian is polling at 45 vs Romney today in Gallup.
:D :D :D here's a guy that has no life what so ever calling someone else names :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
mr. 130 + post a day
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:D :D :D here's a guy that has no life what so ever calling someone else names :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
mr. 130 + post a day
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Yeah, the communist ghetto incompetent messiah thinks the private sector is doing fine. LOL!
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well when thoughts and good intentions are what matters I guess the liberal agenda will work.
In reality we look at how the votes fall, not what ppl "feel" will happen.
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Including the 2008 election, Americans' predictions of the four prior presidential elections were also generally accurate.
Wow. Pretty bad for Romney there. Public perception matters.
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Including the 2008 election, Americans' predictions of the four prior presidential elections were also generally accurate.
Wow. Pretty bad for Romney there. Public perception matters.
Whatever. Talk to me in novemeber oh Obama cum sock.
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Whatever. Talk to me in novemeber oh Obama cum sock.
what factors do you believe will influence voting AGAINST perception?
why will 2012 go against the grain of the past 20 years?
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what factors do you believe will influence voting AGAINST perception?
why will 2012 go against the grain of the past 20 years?
Economy anyone? Turnout anyone? Obama is a proven incompetent disaster anyone? Obama polling at terrible levels for incumbent anyone? Obama record of treason anyone?
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Economy anyone? Turnout anyone? Obama is a proven incompetent disaster anyone? Obama polling at terrible levels for incumbent anyone? Obama record of treason anyone?
in that case, what explains the HORRIBLE confidence for Romney? People dislike obama, but have no confidence in his opponent. Is it due to the fact he underperformed so badly against santorum, himself a B-list candidate? Or the fact the repub base mocked romney for 6 years now pretends to like him?
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56% of Americans are about to be very surprised.
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Pretty meaningless poll.
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Pretty meaningless poll.
yep. the fact it was accurate the last 4 elections shouldn't bother anyone.
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yep. the fact it was accurate the last 4 elections shouldn't bother anyone.
Other than 2000 - gmafb.
The economy was good in 2004.
in 2012 - its a fucking wreck.
240 - you really have morphed into something you probably would have been completely ashamed of a few years ago - ALL TO WORSHIP AT THE ALTAR OF YOUR MESSIANIC CULT LEADER.
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Other than 2000 - gmafb.
The economy was good in 2004.
in 2012 - its a fucking wreck.
240 - you really have morphed into something you probably would have been completely ashamed of a few years ago - ALL TO WORSHIP AT THE ALTAR OF YOUR MESSIANIC CULT LEADER.
Because I'm asking you to justify why public voting will completely go against public opinion for the first time in 20 years?
I'm asking you to tell me why reality will defy precedent, and all you can do is call me names.
I dont even argue anymore, because everyone here sees it - when you have a good counter-point to make, you deliver it. When you are fucking owned up the ass on an arguemtn, you insult me instead of refuting the point.
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Because I'm asking you to justify why public voting will completely go against public opinion for the first time in 20 years?
I'm asking you to tell me why reality will defy precedent, and all you can do is call me names.
I dont even argue anymore, because everyone here sees it - when you have a good counter-point to make, you deliver it. When you are fucking owned up the ass on an arguemtn, you insult me instead of refuting the point.
Let me help you
Repub = Good
Dem = bad
Monkey logic
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Because I'm asking you to justify why public voting will completely go against public opinion for the first time in 20 years?
I'm asking you to tell me why reality will defy precedent, and all you can do is call me names.
I dont even argue anymore, because everyone here sees it - when you have a good counter-point to make, you deliver it. When you are fucking owned up the ass on an arguemtn, you insult me instead of refuting the point.
its hard arguing with someone who blatantly lies like you do.
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try it 33 - for just one day.
every time you respond, try only responding to the question or issue. No insults. No calling people human toilet paper or kneepadders or anti-american traitors.
Try just addressing the points they make - I think you'll discover that's a lot HARDER than just saying "bro, you're a kneepadder, go fuck a duck".
Try arguing the issues, it's a lot tougher. Try defending the points or telling us why, in this case, voters will completely abandon public sentiment and vote against their current belief that obama will win. Try it!
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try it 33 - for just one day.
every time you respond, try only responding to the question or issue. No insults. No calling people human toilet paper or kneepadders or anti-american traitors.
Try just addressing the points they make - I think you'll discover that's a lot HARDER than just saying "bro, you're a kneepadder, go fuck a duck".
Try arguing the issues, it's a lot tougher. Try defending the points or telling us why, in this case, voters will completely abandon public sentiment and vote against their current belief that obama will win. Try it!
lol and then you try addressing the point of the thread and not deflecting...
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lol and then you try addressing the point of the thread and not deflecting...
the point of this thread is that the last 4 elections, public belief was reflected in voting stations.
I see this being the case once again. I agree with OP.
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the point of this thread is that the last 4 elections, public belief was reflected in voting stations.
I see this being the case once again. I agree with OP.
we know you do, we also know that you will do just about anything including voting accordingly to make this happen.
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we know you do, we also know that you will do just about anything including voting accordingly to make this happen.
you tole me to address the point of the thread. I do.
your response is an insult about me. So you are conceding the thread point? You accept public belief = public voting, as history shows?
if not, why?
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you tole me to address the point of the thread. I do.
your response is an insult about me. So you are conceding the thread point? You accept public belief = public voting, as history shows?
if not, why?
Gallup also said the general mood expects better economy despite the fact that we are heading into a recession.
Just because someone "feels" something does not make it a fact. I know for touchy feely libs that is hard to grasp.
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Gallup also said the general mood expects better economy despite the fact that we are heading into a recession.
Just because someone "feels" something does not make it a fact. I know for touchy feely libs that is hard to grasp.
see, the top repub ROmney says the economy is recovering. Obama says the economy is recovering.
At this point, it's only a CT that the economy isn't getting better. Leaders of both parties agree on something.
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nonsense. 175% of Americans know he is a commie eskimo traitor and will lose in a landslide.
Commie eskimo!!!!!!!!!!
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Because I'm asking you to justify why public voting will completely go against public opinion for the first time in 20 years?
I'm asking you to tell me why reality will defy precedent, and all you can do is call me names.
I dont even argue anymore, because everyone here sees it - when you have a good counter-point to make, you deliver it. When you are fucking owned up the ass on an arguemtn, you insult me instead of refuting the point.
Thats exactly. Reason? Logic?....Fuck all that!!!!! if you dont go with everything negative about Obama, with no regards to its validity or truthfullness, then youre an Obama eskimo commie thug.
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Thats exactly. Reason? Logic?....Fuck all that!!!!! if you dont go with everything negative about Obama, with no regards to its validity or truthfullness, then youre an Obama eskimo commie thug.
Because the only thing that matters is likely voter polling. Right now Mittens is tied or up by a few and the undecided always go for the challenger.
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Because the only thing that matters is likely voter polling. Right now Mittens is tied or up by a few and the undecided always go for the challenger.
do you have any evidence that the poll chose likely voters in 08, 04, 00 and 96 - and DID NOT do it now?
Or just emotion on your side here?
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do you have any evidence that the poll chose likely voters in 08, 04, 00 and 96 - and DID NOT do it now?
Or just emotion on your side here?
I read RCP daily and look at the polling douche. most are doing adults and resigstered voters, not likely voters.
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I read RCP daily and look at the polling douche. most are doing adults and resigstered voters, not likely voters.
Please address the GALLUP poll, upon which this thread is based.
Gallup used the same polling standards for 2012, 08, 04, 00 and 96.
They discovered in the last 4 elections, all polling standards equal, the guy leading public belief of winning actually won.
Your use of RCP to try to discredit Gallup makes no fcking sense at all. none. Unless you apply it to 08, 04, 00, 96... you're using oranges to tell me apples don't taste as good as they used to.
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Please address the GALLUP poll, upon which this thread is based.
Gallup used the same polling standards for 2012, 08, 04, 00 and 96.
They discovered in the last 4 elections, all polling standards equal, the guy leading public belief of winning actually won.
Your use of RCP to try to discredit Gallup makes no fcking sense at all. none. Unless you apply it to 08, 04, 00, 96... you're using oranges to tell me apples don't taste as good as they used to.
No - i trust the general polling of Ras since he is the most accurate the last few cycles.
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you tole me to address the point of the thread. I do.
your response is an insult about me. So you are conceding the thread point? You accept public belief = public voting, as history shows?
if not, why?
that was no insult sir simply the truth of the matter, only liberals find facts offensive...
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No - i trust the general polling of Ras since he is the most accurate the last few cycles.
what was different in the 2012 gallup poll - from the gallup 08, 04, 00, and 96 polling practices?
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what was different in the 2012 gallup poll - from the gallup 08, 04, 00, and 96 polling practices?
::) ::)
I posted the rasmussen figues which aere usually the best, but keep grasping.
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that was no insult sir simply the truth of the matter, only liberals find facts offensive...
Shittin me right
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::) ::)
I posted the rasmussen figues which aere usually the best, but keep grasping.
i give up. i love to argue but you're not addressing what i'm saying. rass 2012 number have nothing to do with the last 5 gallup cycle polls on voter perception.
youre desperate now.
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i give up. i love to argue but you're not addressing what i'm saying. rass 2012 number have nothing to do with the last 5 gallup cycle polls on voter perception.
youre desperate now.
Lets look at the last 4 elections
2008 was clear as the economy was a disaster.
2004 was clear as the economy was good
2000 - definately toss up
1996 - not even close - dole was horrible.
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Lets look at the last 4 elections
2008 was clear as the economy was a disaster.
2004 was clear as the economy was good
2000 - definately toss up
1996 - not even close - dole was horrible.
and the polling reflected these pieces of info - every time.
gallup was accuate with each of these.
people saw dole was horrible and gave clinton the edge.
people knew bush would win - and he did in 2000.
people believed bush would win in 2004, and he did.
people believed obama would win in 2008, and he did.
And as this poll shows, the majority of americans (by 20 points or so) believe obama will win. It doesn't mean 20% more people support him. It means they believe he'll win.
Look at it like sports - if you asked me who I think will win the super bowl this season, I'll HOPE it is my tampa bay bucs.
But if I'm asked "who do I BELIEve will win" - it'll be the pats or the packers.
I dislike these teams. I dont' support them. But I am a realist that my choice probably doesn't have the horsepower to win in the playoffs.
Bottom line - Many people prefer romney to obama but don't believe romney will win. Why is that so hard to accept, 33?
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and the polling reflected these pieces of info - every time.
gallup was accuate with each of these.
people saw dole was horrible and gave clinton the edge.
people knew bush would win - and he did in 2000.
people believed bush would win in 2004, and he did.
people believed obama would win in 2008, and he did.
And as this poll shows, the majority of americans (by 20 points or so) believe obama will win. It doesn't mean 20% more people support him. It means they believe he'll win.
Look at it like sports - if you asked me who I think will win the super bowl this season, I'll HOPE it is my tampa bay bucs.
But if I'm asked "who do I BELIEve will win" - it'll be the pats or the packers.
I dislike these teams. I dont' support them. But I am a realist that my choice probably doesn't have the horsepower to win in the playoffs.
Bottom line - Many people prefer romney to obama but don't believe romney will win. Why is that so hard to accept, 33?
Don't know - I'll stick with Ras who has been the most accurate over the last 8 years by far.
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Don't know - I'll stick with Ras who has been the most accurate over the last 8 years by far.
Do you think it's possible that 10% of americans prefer romney to obama - But believe obama will somehow manage to win based upon power of incumbency, media support, outright cheating, or other reasons?
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Do you think it's possible that 10% of americans prefer romney to obama - But believe obama will somehow manage to win based upon power of incumbency, media support, outright cheating, or other reasons?
Could be. But as this rolling circus implodes over the next few months Romney will move ahead convincingly.
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Rasmussen disagrees:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, June 11, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.
Romney leads in Missouri, while the candidates are tied in Colorado and Virginia.
Most voters continue to favor repeal of the president’s national health care law as they have in regular tracking since its passage in March 2010.
Investor confidence fell to a three-month low on Sunday.
There’s not much support for open-ended government help for the long-term unemployed, not because Americans are mean-spirited but because they see dependence on the government as a bad thing, Scott Rasmussen explains in a new radio update.
If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers. The Wall Street Journal has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster,” and The Washington Post says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”
(http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/romney_vs_obama/june_2012/romney_vs_obama_june_11_2012/713606-1-eng-US/romney_vs_obama_june_11_2012.jpg)
During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point.