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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: calfzilla on August 21, 2015, 10:26:57 PM
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Getbiggers must be heavily invested overseas in Dubai Inda.
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Nothing to worry about, it happens. Now, if it continues, that's a different story.
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Massive distribution. A -900 point loss on the DOW in only 3 days. This is only the beginning. It's going to get ugly.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150821_EOD21.jpg)
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Nothing to worry about, it happens. Now, if it continues, that's a different story.
The story is different now. The entire rally since 2009 has been fake and all based on Fed reserve liquidity injections (QE) and black box flash trading. It never goes straight down though, there will be up days.
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This seems like it will be a 20% or more correction over the next month. I can't see any good reason to hold stocks at this value especially with a fed rate rise looming.
I would be selling every stock I had right now. The stock market is about to crash!
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This seems like it will be a 20% or more correction over the next month. I can't see any good reason to hold stocks at this value especially with a fed rate rise looming.
I would be selling every stock I had right now. The stock market is about to crash!
Lots of people have been saying September is going to be brutal in the world's markets. There are a few very large entities buying VXX futures for mid-September essentially betting the bottom drops out of equities.
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S&P chart puts the last few trading days into perspective...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36686456731 (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36686456731)
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Getbiggers are more worried about black people than stock market crashes.
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Yes I've lost millions already.
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Market correction.....nothing to write home about ::)
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Getbiggers are more worried about black people than stock market crashes.
The hair from that guys ass crack looks like one giant shit stain.
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Market correction.....nothing to write home about ::)
correct, unless you are an investor ::)
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One thing we do have in common nowadays with 2008 is a collapsing oil market. The price of oil is now at the point to where it is doing more harm than good.
The fact that interest rates have been held down by the fed the last 7 years is also a concern.
We are in the midst of a global credit crisis. The US is actually doing better than just about everyone else these days, even though we've had a very tepid recovery the last 6+ years.
I actually did some buying and some profit taking yesterday. I've mentioned owning LaJolla Pharma for quite a while - it was up over double digits yesterday, and I took some off the table.
I had also bought a little of company called Macrocure Thursday after it had sold off some 75%. It opened up yesterday a good 50%+ higher than the day before, and I took about half off the table.
Bottom-up. Think more about your individual investment picks and how they are doing individually rather than worry about what the broad markets will do - they will do what they will do, and no one knows for sure what they will do in the next week, month, or year or longer.
If you're a novice, just keep on dollar-cost averaging every payday into your index funds or mutual funds.
If you're more advanced and more tactical, keep your eyes open for bargains. Keep an eye on your current holdings, and don't panic as long as the fundamentals remain strong in those companies. See these big market selloffs as buying opportunities as fundamentally sound companies become cheaper. Continue to dollar cost average every payday and buy more as these companies get cheaper.
Don't be afraid to keep some cash handy - 15, 20, 25% or so. Just don't go crazy and go to 100% cash or even gold or especially 100% short positions or anything - that almost never works out to your benefit for any length of time.
For those of us who are highly advanced and have a fair amount of money, you're probably covering some of your more volatile long positions with put options... And you're also probably using puts to bet against some more volatile companies you believe are way overpriced, in a fundamental decline, or are outright broken; you may also have some short stock positions against less volatile companies in similar positions. You can see times like this as opportunities to take some profits on companies that have had very good runs that aren't so cheap anymore (and increase your available cash reserves); to buy / buy more into good companies that have suddenly become rather cheap; to buy more puts; and to perhaps add / increase short stock positions.
Not a bad time to put a bit more into gold IMO. I'm also still putting a bit into crude and related investments, as I don't believe crude will stay this low for much longer.
It's a given that sooner or later we'd see a correction. It's also a given that sooner or later we'll see another bear market. I don't know if this is it, but I'd rather see one now than 5-6 years from now when I'm perhaps 50-100% or more wealthier than I am now.
I also would rather a bear market now and for the next year and a half (as opposed to further down the road) for other reasons. I would like to see another late '07 to early '09 scenario now, during Obama's last 17 or so months in office, so that those who believe "he tripled the stock market" can hopefully see how foolish they are.
I also think such a market downturn would be more likely to lead to a more favorable election outcome in '16, since most people (especially on the left) wrongly believe a sitting president and the federal government in general have very much control at all over such things as the stock market performance and the price of a barrel of oil.
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Solid advice from 2Thick above. Especially the bit about not worrying what the market as a whole is doing...do your home work on individual picks.
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Skorp taking it in like a child at a liturgy ::) ;D
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Fucking oil at $40 a barrel is what is beating the hell out of me personally. Makes about a 40-50% difference in my personal net worth when oil is over $100 a barrel vs $40-50 a barrel. Plus the royalty payments stop when the oil companies stop drilling at these low levels... :'(
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Fucking oil at $40 a barrel is what is beating the hell out of me personally. Makes about a 40-50% difference in my personal net worth when oil is over $100 a barrel vs $40-50 a barrel. Plus the royalty payments stop when the oil companies stop drilling at these low levels... :'(
I'm all in oil and can't even look at my brokerage account right now. I bought when oil hit $50 a barrel thinking that was the bottom.
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I'm just the safe old dollar cost averaging guy with mutual funds.
People who sell when the market drops are idiots. Rich people get richer by buying when the market is down because they are smart enough to know it will go back up.
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Solid advice from 2Thick above. Especially the bit about not worrying what the market as a whole is doing...do your home work on individual picks.
When confidence is lost, individual picks don't matter... every stock comes down hard. This next crash one is going to be very nasty. The economy is horrible. Derivatives total around $1.4 quadrillion dollars. The current financial system is not going to last much longer.
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I'm just the safe old dollar cost averaging guy with mutual funds.
People who sell when the market drops are idiots. Rich people get richer by buying when the market is down because they are smart enough to know it will go back up.
You're not paying attention to what is going on. I feel sorry for you.
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Dammit. Thought it said stock car crash.
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You're not paying attention to what is going on. I feel sorry for you.
I don't buy into all that doomsday crap.
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europe should to be concerned. if the US economy goes down, how long will it be till they turn their attention to plundering Europe's wealth?
we've already seen the US systematically invade and destabilise the middle east region over the last 15 years or so for political and financial gain. they will stop at nothing to keep their position as the world's financial and military superpower and would no doubt turn on their 'allies' at the drop of hat if was deemed necessary.
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I don't buy into all that doomsday crap.
A severe correction and a subsequent full recession isn't doomsday. Let's see what China does on open tonight. My expectations are that the Global Plunge Protection Team has been collaborating over the weekend. Expect massive BoJ intervention in the USDJPY carry trade to start. China will make selling a stock a Capitol offense at midnight and the Fed will trot out Yellen to presage QE4 at 0900 EST before open to get the SPX futures back to green.
Crisis averted!
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One thing we do have in common nowadays with 2008 is a collapsing oil market. The price of oil is now at the point to where it is doing more harm than good.
The fact that interest rates have been held down by the fed the last 7 years is also a concern.
We are in the midst of a global credit crisis. The US is actually doing better than just about everyone else these days, even though we've had a very tepid recovery the last 6+ years.
I actually did some buying and some profit taking yesterday. I've mentioned owning LaJolla Pharma for quite a while - it was up over double digits yesterday, and I took some off the table.
I had also bought a little of company called Macrocure Thursday after it had sold off some 75%. It opened up yesterday a good 50%+ higher than the day before, and I took about half off the table.
Bottom-up. Think more about your individual investment picks and how they are doing individually rather than worry about what the broad markets will do - they will do what they will do, and no one knows for sure what they will do in the next week, month, or year or longer.
If you're a novice, just keep on dollar-cost averaging every payday into your index funds or mutual funds.
If you're more advanced and more tactical, keep your eyes open for bargains. Keep an eye on your current holdings, and don't panic as long as the fundamentals remain strong in those companies. See these big market selloffs as buying opportunities as fundamentally sound companies become cheaper. Continue to dollar cost average every payday and buy more as these companies get cheaper.
Don't be afraid to keep some cash handy - 15, 20, 25% or so. Just don't go crazy and go to 100% cash or even gold or especially 100% short positions or anything - that almost never works out to your benefit for any length of time.
For those of us who are highly advanced and have a fair amount of money, you're probably covering some of your more volatile long positions with put options... And you're also probably using puts to bet against some more volatile companies you believe are way overpriced, in a fundamental decline, or are outright broken; you may also have some short stock positions against less volatile companies in similar positions. You can see times like this as opportunities to take some profits on companies that have had very good runs that aren't so cheap anymore (and increase your available cash reserves); to buy / buy more into good companies that have suddenly become rather cheap; to buy more puts; and to perhaps add / increase short stock positions.
Not a bad time to put a bit more into gold IMO. I'm also still putting a bit into crude and related investments, as I don't believe crude will stay this low for much longer.
It's a given that sooner or later we'd see a correction. It's also a given that sooner or later we'll see another bear market. I don't know if this is it, but I'd rather see one now than 5-6 years from now when I'm perhaps 50-100% or more wealthier than I am now.
I also would rather a bear market now and for the next year and a half (as opposed to further down the road) for other reasons. I would like to see another late '07 to early '09 scenario now, during Obama's last 17 or so months in office, so that those who believe "he tripled the stock market" can hopefully see how foolish they are.
I also think such a market downturn would be more likely to lead to a more favorable election outcome in '16, since most people (especially on the left) wrongly believe a sitting president and the federal government in general have very much control at all over such things as the stock market performance and the price of a barrel of oil.
Do you have any opinion on US residential property?
I'm European with no assets in the US but am planning to relocate to the west coast within the next 12 months. I've been toying with the idea of buying a condo with a very small mortgage just to get on the credit ladder. I don't really need it as an investment per se, but if it saves me a few points on a multi-million mortgage then it becomes worth it.
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Everyone knows the US Debt is out of control, unsustainable, the economy has to come down eventually.....
" Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" by Gibbon - great read, foreshadows America and it's future
:'(
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Fucking oil at $40 a barrel is what is beating the hell out of me personally. Makes about a 40-50% difference in my personal net worth when oil is over $100 a barrel vs $40-50 a barrel. Plus the royalty payments stop when the oil companies stop drilling at these low levels... :'(
2thick is part of the petrodollar implosion and he is not even a mustachioed arab.
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When confidence is lost, individual picks don't matter... every stock comes down hard. This next crash one is going to be very nasty. The economy is horrible. Derivatives total around $1.4 quadrillion dollars. The current financial system is not going to last much longer.
a lot of the notional derivatives are offset by opposite exposures. our office has a $2bn or so derivatives book, but its just fx hedges between currency share classes.
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Do you have any opinion on US residential property?
I'm European with no assets in the US but am planning to relocate to the west coast within the next 12 months. I've been toying with the idea of buying a condo with a very small mortgage just to get on the credit ladder. I don't really need it as an investment per se, but if it saves me a few points on a multi-million mortgage then it becomes worth it.
if i were you i would enjoy living for a year or two then buy when the crash happens, fwiw i think this is just a shakeout, there hasnt been one really since 2011.
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Massive distribution. A -900 point loss on the DOW in only 3 days. This is only the beginning. It's going to get ugly.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150821_EOD21.jpg)
I'm not sure how ugly it will get. It e.g. depends on how bad it will be in China. This will send ripples through the rest of the stock market.
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Double plus ungood: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-23/global-trade-freefall-container-freight-rates-asia-europe-crash-60-three-weeks
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Getbiggers must be heavily invested overseas in Dubai Inda.
Why not in Putin Russia ???
1 EURO = 78.55 Rubles
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Christ, it's a bloodbath in China right now. If this keeps up, the DOW futures will be -500 by 0600 EST.
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China stock market down 8.5% for the day.
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Market will drop slowly the next couple weeks, then greed will kick in and people will start buying stocks like crazy. 18,000 by October 1st
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Christ, it's a bloodbath in China right now. If this keeps up, the DOW futures will be -500 by 0600 EST.
Not a bad call by this _aj_ fellow. DOW FUT -535 @ 0752 EST
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Down over 1000 points just after it opened...right now its -731
Gonna be a long day :-\
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Sell sell SELL!!!
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The Dukes are going to corner the entire frozen orange juice market!!
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Markets capped out, the big money makers cashed out, let the stock sink and will buy back in cheaper and let it run up again. In the end those that lose out are the average joe investor
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Markets capped out, the big money makers cashed out, let the stock sink and will buy back in cheaper and let it run up again. In the end those that lose out are the average joe investor
It's like clockwork, happens every single time. The retail investor (that was forced into the market) gets panicked and trapped and slaughtered by the Fed and Banks. Panic sell, banks pick assets up for dirt cheap and ride the wave back up. Wash.Rinse.Repeat.
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It's like clockwork, happens every single time. The retail investor (that was forced into the market) gets panicked and trapped and slaughtered by the Fed and Banks. Panic sell, banks pick assets up for dirt cheap and ride the wave back up. Wash.Rinse.Repeat.
By the time it hits the news cycle that the market is hot or the market is cold it's too late for the average investor to cash out or buy in. Those in the know have already made the big money.
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By the time it hits the news cycle that the market is hot or the market is cold it's too late for the average investor to cash out or buy in. Those in the know have already made the big money.
The retail investor is there to get sheered. End of story. Once the decision is made by the banks/Fed and their HFT platforms....it's all over except for the crying. If you intend to sell everything and jump off a cliff...you play their game and lose. If you plan on selling at the top, waiting for the bottom (or whatever it is) being patient and picking up assets cheap you have a chance to win.
You knew it was in for a slam when the historic highs were done on very low volume and the drops were done on high volume. Not a good sign, but a sign nonetheless.
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The retail investor is there to get sheered. End of story. Once the decision is made by the banks/Fed and their HFT platforms....it's all over except for the crying. If you intend to sell everything and jump off a cliff...you play their game and lose. If you plan on selling at the top, waiting for the bottom (or whatever it is) being patient and picking up assets cheap you have a chance to win.
You knew it was in for a slam when the historic highs were done on very low volume and the drops were done on high volume. Not a good sign, but a sign nonetheless.
I knew a guy that worked on Wall Street. He said there was a group of Jewish Investment Brokers who always seemed to be and always knew what the market would be before it happened. There definitely is a group that has more influence than others when it comes to this shit.
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Down over 600 points today.
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Getbiggers must be heavily invested overseas in Dubai Inda.
Should not have invested in Peking Duck and Egg-Fu-Yong.... :-[
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I knew a guy that worked on Wall Street. He said there was a group of Jewish Investment Brokers who always seemed to be and always knew what the market would be before it happened. There definitely is a group that has more influence than others when it comes to this shit.
Probably a lot like how NFL coaches know what's going on around the league better than Joe Blow down at the bar?
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Down over 600 points today.
And that was a hell of a recovery. The DOW opened -1000
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Anyone notice Apple's low was $92.00 and high was $108.80 and that Facebook's low was $72.00 and high was 87.14?
Seems some groups set their limits right on the nose at 92 and 72 and then sold off for a quick profit. Despite it's loss a lot of people made billions today.
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Anyone notice Apple's low was $92.00 and high was $108.80 and that Facebook's low was $72.00 and high was 87.14?
Seems some groups set their limits right on the nose at 92 and 72 and then sold off for a quick profit. Despite it's loss a lot of people made billions today.
^ gee whiz really? Almost like this thing is called a market! Woulda thought people make and loose money!
GROUND BREAKING THOUGHTS
im so glad we have you around MR. Soros to guide us all!
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^ gee whiz really? Almost like this thing is called a market! Woulda thought people make and loose money!
GROUND BREAKING THOUGHTS
im so glad we have you around MR. Soros to guide us all!
You missed the point. Look at how both lows were set right at .00 even dollars. That's the funny part.
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no its not people set stops and buy orders like that why is it funny or odd???
Do you set stops like 52.46? No you set em as 52.50
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You missed the point. Look at how both lows were set right at .00 even dollars. That's the funny part.
The funny part is that there would be any actual retail investors left. At the height of the day's insanity, the credit markets kept getting halted and that would completely halt the online (read: retail) trading platforms. Folks that were trying to buy, sell or cancel were just locked out of their accounts for the duration.
If you are a retail investor left in this "market" you are a fool.
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The funny part is that there would be any actual retail investors left. At the height of the day's insanity, the credit markets kept getting halted and that would completely halt the online (read: retail) trading platforms. Folks that were trying to buy, sell or cancel were just locked out of their accounts for the duration.
If you are a retail investor left in this "market" you are a fool.
retail investors have more of edge and traders that must perform each quarter.
the problem is most retail traders are mentally retarded doctors or lawyers who think cause they graduated mega cumlaude they can beat the markets.
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retail investors have more of edge and traders that must perform each quarter.
the problem is most retail traders are mentally retarded doctors or lawyers who think cause they graduated mega cumlaude they can beat the markets.
I am guessing that you didn't graduate magna either.
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retail investors have more of edge and traders that must perform each quarter.
the problem is most retail traders are mentally retarded doctors or lawyers who think cause they graduated mega cumlaude they can beat the markets.
back up your claim with sources.
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Not a good time for emerging market commodity based currencies .... :'(
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Basic facts: Buy low, sell while high.
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Basic facts: Buy low, sell while high.
And don't be long in markets driven by idiotic fed policy.
QE debacle.
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Pat Roberston: Dow Plunge is God’s Punishment for Planned Parenthood
(http://static01.mediaite.com/med/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/PicMonkey-Collage-Robertson.jpg)
As the Dow drop continues to make headlines, everyone from Donald Trump to Glenn Beck have jumped to give their thought on how this could happen, and what the results could be.
Of course, while a great deal of blame has been placed on various economic factors, Pat Robertson claims to know what’s truly responsible for the stock market disaster: Abortion.
The televangelist host of The 700 Club said on Monday that the downturn was a preview of God’s judgment for American complicity in the use of federal tax dollars to fund the “monstrosity” known as Planned Parenthood. Robertson continued to explain how we would “pay dearly as a nation,” and that the only way to stop the American apocalypse was if we “stop the slaughter.”
“It’s coming, ladies and gentlemen,” Robertson warned. “We just had a little taste of it in terms of the financial system, but it’s going to be shaken to its core in the next few months, years or however long it tastes and it will hurt every one of us.”
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I just read three pages. I still don't know what the hell any of this shit means, and I'm in the 1%. Go figure.
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^ daddy must have been a good investor !
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interested how mahg is doing through all of this..
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I'm all in oil and can't even look at my brokerage account right now. I bought when oil hit $50 a barrel thinking that was the bottom.
I've got tons of it under my property, and an active lease with an oil company - which is the main reason I like it above $100. ;D
I did a little number crunching, and oil at $40 vs $140 a barrel makes a 35% difference in my personal net worth - based upon my 20% share they pay me when it comes out of the ground - of how much oil I've been told is under my property.
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I'm just the safe old dollar cost averaging guy with mutual funds.
People who sell when the market drops are idiots. Rich people get richer by buying when the market is down because they are smart enough to know it will go back up.
You can rest assured that Buffett and the other big dogs are buying up stock like crazy.
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When confidence is lost, individual picks don't matter... every stock comes down hard. This next crash one is going to be very nasty. The economy is horrible. Derivatives total around $1.4 quadrillion dollars. The current financial system is not going to last much longer.
When the shit really hits the fan, and the big institutions sell and short big, it's pretty much a given that we see systemic short term declines in values pretty much across the board. If I knew ahead of time how much those declines would be and how long they'd last, I'd be a zillionaire.
Until then, I'll buy and buy more of stocks of good companies as they get cheaper, and hedge myself in various ways - puts, shorts, commodities, cash, etc.
If we ever see doomsday and I wake up one day and find out it's all gone for whatever reason, I don't see any of us being long for the world at that point anyway.
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Do you have any opinion on US residential property?
I'm European with no assets in the US but am planning to relocate to the west coast within the next 12 months. I've been toying with the idea of buying a condo with a very small mortgage just to get on the credit ladder. I don't really need it as an investment per se, but if it saves me a few points on a multi-million mortgage then it becomes worth it.
West coast is pretty expensive overall. I live in the deep south, and I had a home built here a while back that resembles many of the Mediterranean style homes you see around the golf course communities in the San Diego area - for a very small fraction of what it would have cost me to buy one out there. You can build or usually even buy a very nice 10k sq foot home in a nice neighborhood in the Houston area for low 7 figs - it would cost at least mid 7 figs in a nice area of San Diego, and well into 8 figures in nicer parts of the LA and San Fran areas.
Of course real estate over the long term is usually a wise investment. Short term it's anybody's guess - some people who are smarter and far wealthier than me like Kevin O'Leary and Steve Schwarzman actually disagree on whether or not real estate is going to be a good investment in the next few years. But a nice home in a nice area is almost always a very good idea long term over here.
Over here, you can generally deduct the interest paid on the first million on a mortgage of a primary or secondary residence on your income tax returns.
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I never make predictions. Sometimes I'm right in the short term, sometimes not. It's often just a matter of making a move a little too early if it doesn't go your way in the short term.
My goal is to be largely right in the long term and increase wealth greatly over that time. Been doing this over 21 years. The best thing the small retail investor can do is not get bogged down in the short term drama, and keep their eye on retiring in 20, 30, or 40 years with a nice nestegg.
Investing $100 every week for 40 years in a IRA or Roth, with an assumed total return of 10% over that time (like what the S&P has roughly averaged over the last 50 years or so), and with minimal fees and expenses (and no withdrawals) will result in over $2 million by that time. If you can put another $100 or $200 a week into a work plan as well, all the better - particularly if they match.
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You can rest assured that Buffett and the other big dogs are buying up stock like crazy.
They may have bought and sold when the 1k drop re traced but they all know this is not over.
FB is still over 80 but AAPL was a good one day play today.
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I never make predictions. Sometimes I'm right in the short term, sometimes not. It's often just a matter of making a move a little too early if it doesn't go your way in the short term.
My goal is to be largely right in the long term and increase wealth greatly over that time. Been doing this over 21 years. The best thing the small retail investor can do is not get bogged down in the short term drama, and keep their eye on retiring in 20, 30, or 40 years with a nice nestegg.
Investing $100 every week for 40 years in a IRA or Roth, with an assumed total return of 10% over that time (like what the S&P has roughly averaged over the last 50 years or so), and with minimal fees and expenses (and no withdrawals) will result in over $2 million by that time. If you can put another $100 or $200 a week into a work plan as well, all the better - particularly if they match.
That's good advice. I was market timing for the last 2 years and did well. I read all the articles about how market timing is impossible but I can say I was lucky for 2 years. My company switched Deferred Comp/ 401 companies in June and I wasn't allowed to move in and out so I picked a general fund that picked stocks for those retiring in 2025. So I'm down 22K as of June... and I'm pretty sure had we stayed with the old company, I would have at least reduced my losses.. but yeah.. long term is the way to look at it or you'll cut your throat in times like this
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If you are a net buyer of stocks, which most people generally should be unless they are in or near retirement, you want prices to be lower, rather than higher. It is just like anything else being on a discount, plus it raises yields. Despite weaknesses in some multinationals with large exposure to emerging markets, as well as the energy sector pretty much across the board, the financials for the large majority of S&P 500 companies have remained strong. Most of the pullback is due to lower P/E multiples as growth is slowing. Add in the uncertainty with the timing of the fed rate hike, and that's why you are seeing this correction. Now it is possible we could be heading toward a recession but that is just part of the normal business cycle, and it shouldn't be anything like 2008. When the market started falling in late 2007 and early 2008, you had several economic catalysts such as the bankruptcies of Countrywide, Bear Sterns, and Lehman Brothers. We don't have that right now, as the market is mostly moving on fear and the slowdown in China. I will bet you the Dow will hit 22,000 by 2017.
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They may have bought and sold when the 1k drop re traced but they all know this is not over.
FB is still over 80 but AAPL was a good one day play today.
Guys like Buffett and Icahn don't sell very often. I watch the SEC filings closely that the big dogs must file every quarter, and those guys are not traders by any stretch of the imagination. I think the shortest Buffett has held a position in recent years was Exxon, just over a year. Capital gains taxes are higher on profits taken < 1yr. And he probably sold Exxon because of the poor outlook for oil. He also recently sold Phillips 66, which was spun off from Conoco years ago, which he also owned for years until recently.
Of course that's not to say that all billionaires do the same - Jim Simons and DE Shaw made their fortunes largely with automated HFT systems.
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Maybe your prediction will be right. I wouldn't bet the ranch on it being up or down, and certainly not on a specific number. I don't worry about where the Dow will be in 17 months anyway - I'll stick mainly to looking at individual companies, and always being at least some long, a little short, a little in cash, and a little in things like commodities, perhaps REITS, etc.
A small cap biotech company that puts its drugs through clinical trials and FDA decisions will move a great deal in either direction from time to time, regardless of where we are in the economic cycle, and where interest rates are. I'm pretty good at digging in and finding these companies, and profiting on these moves via options and perhaps small long stock positions. Just an example.
The market does have a built in upward bias over the mid to long term for various reasons, but you just never know what will happen. Many who are smarter and richer than I am are predicting tepid growth, which when combined with increasing interest rates may make it a challenge for the broad markets to keep going up in the next few years.
If you are a net buyer of stocks, which most people generally should be unless they are in or near retirement, you want prices to be lower, rather than higher. It is just like anything else being on a discount, plus it raises yields. Despite weaknesses in some multinationals with large exposure to emerging markets, as well as the energy sector pretty much across the board, the financials for the large majority of S&P 500 companies have remained strong. Most of the pullback is due to lower P/E multiples as growth is slowing. Add in the uncertainty with the timing of the fed rate hike, and that's why you are seeing this correction. Now it is possible we could be heading toward a recession but that is just part of the normal business cycle, and it shouldn't be anything like 2008. When the market started falling in late 2007 and early 2008, you had several economic catalysts such as the bankruptcies of Countrywide, Bear Sterns, and Lehman Brothers. We don't have that right now, as the market is mostly moving on fear and the slowdown in China. I will bet you the Dow will hit 22,000 by 2017.
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Guys like Buffett and Icahn don't sell very often. I watch the SEC filings closely that the big dogs must file every quarter, and those guys are not traders by any stretch of the imagination. I think the shortest Buffett has held a position in recent years was Exxon, just over a year. Capital gains taxes are higher on profits taken < 1yr. And he probably sold Exxon because of the poor outlook for oil. He also recently sold Phillips 66, which was spun off from Conoco years ago, which he also owned for years until recently.
Of course that's not to say that all billionaires do the same - Jim Simons and DE Shaw made their fortunes largely with automated HFT systems.
They are def not the same but one thing for sure they are well diversified in stocks (growth, value, small cap etc) real estate, bonds (municipals for tax reasons), etc.
I think most people are best to index the market because as we know stock picking is tricky even with all the data available.
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Yeah, I think the average person / most people should probably do it that way - index funds are very cheap as well. And with dollar cost averaging, they're buying more shares when the market is down, fewer when it's up.
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I never make predictions. Sometimes I'm right in the short term, sometimes not. It's often just a matter of making a move a little too early if it doesn't go your way in the short term.
My goal is to be largely right in the long term and increase wealth greatly over that time. Been doing this over 21 years. The best thing the small retail investor can do is not get bogged down in the short term drama, and keep their eye on retiring in 20, 30, or 40 years with a nice nestegg.
Investing $100 every week for 40 years in a IRA or Roth, with an assumed total return of 10% over that time (like what the S&P has roughly averaged over the last 50 years or so), and with minimal fees and expenses (and no withdrawals) will result in over $2 million by that time. If you can put another $100 or $200 a week into a work plan as well, all the better - particularly if they match.
This is good advise and I have seen it all investing! It was almost comical watching CNBC today when the talking heads were acting like the market comeback was a signal to buy. They change their views every time the market moves and its not a good idea to get caught up too much in the day to day vicissitudes of an unstable market.
I do think the QE was a prelude to all of this.
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I think I got lucky getting Nike and Verizon at the lows today. Nice gains, wish I would have bought a lot more.
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Interdasting...futures up 4% across all indices, yet the NYSE just invoked Rule 48 pre-open. Somebody expects the bottom to drop out again.
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A lot of idiots at working claiming they lost or made money yet still own the stock. You don't lose or make shit until you sell.
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bottom is not in. short covering and panic buying in full swing today.
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bottom is not in. short covering and panic buying in full swing today.
A lot of day traders taking advantage of the chaos. Will be like a roller coaster for the next few days until things settle. Most companies who are having poor earnings are scrambling because they don't want to issue a bad earnings report in a fragile market.
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wish I was ballsy enough to day trade. everytime I do I loose my lunch so my time horizon is a bit longer.
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wish I was ballsy enough to day trade. everytime I do I loose my lunch so my time horizon is a bit longer.
Day trading is serious business. Have you heard of the group in NJ that paid big money for super fast fiber internet from the NYSE to their office so they literally get stock quotes a couple seconds quicker than anyone else allowing them to buy and sell to make quick profits. Pretty insane the length people will go to.
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yea pretty sure i watched a 60min about that. Its call collocation or co locating. Crazy shit
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Day trading is serious business. Have you heard of the group in NJ that paid big money for super fast fiber internet from the NYSE to their office so they literally get stock quotes a couple seconds quicker than anyone else allowing them to buy and sell to make quick profits. Pretty insane the length people will go to.
JPM is in the colo cage right next to the NYSE trade system. It isn't "seconds" quicker, it's at best 3-5 milliseconds faster. And that's all a HFT algo needs.
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If you are a net buyer of stocks, which most people generally should be unless they are in or near retirement, you want prices to be lower, rather than higher. It is just like anything else being on a discount, plus it raises yields. Despite weaknesses in some multinationals with large exposure to emerging markets, as well as the energy sector pretty much across the board, the financials for the large majority of S&P 500 companies have remained strong. Most of the pullback is due to lower P/E multiples as growth is slowing. Add in the uncertainty with the timing of the fed rate hike, and that's why you are seeing this correction. Now it is possible we could be heading toward a recession but that is just part of the normal business cycle, and it shouldn't be anything like 2008. When the market started falling in late 2007 and early 2008, you had several economic catalysts such as the bankruptcies of Countrywide, Bear Sterns, and Lehman Brothers. We don't have that right now, as the market is mostly moving on fear and the slowdown in China. I will bet you the Dow will hit 22,000 by 2017.
good post.
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Interesting close today. Wonder what China is going to do tonight?
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The first place I go for all my investing advice is getbig.com. It's free and usually spot on. Thanks!!
It's well known that financial site and experts in the field revere GB as the "go to" when the market gets rough. Plus, you can see some oiled up men in thongs as a little "bonus" for the non schmoes out there.
Serious question...do you think the drop in the market has anything to do with the Olympia coming up in a month? Heath could win, but Kai is knocking at the door...then you have Ramy...the wildcard. Certainly this has to play on the mind of investors everywhere. Unnecessary nerves may have led to abrasive trading trends, resulting in a hit on the market. I'm predicting the market goes up 1500 points, once the Olympia takes place. I would go long on posing oil stocks and a moderate hold on insulin labs.
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The first place I go for all my investing advice is getbig.com. It's free and usually spot on. Thanks!!
It's well known that financial site and experts in the field revere GB as the "go to" when the market gets rough. Plus, you can see some oiled up men in thongs as a little "bonus" for the non schmoes out there.
Serious question...do you think the drop in the market has anything to do with the Olympia coming up in a month? Heath could win, but Kai is knocking at the door...then you have Ramy...the wildcard. Certainly this has to play on the mind of investors everywhere. Unnecessary nerves may have led to abrasive trading trends, resulting in a hit on the market. I'm predicting the market goes up 1500 points, once the Olympia takes place. I would go long on posing oil stocks and a moderate hold on insulin labs.
Seriously.. I would pit some of those here against any Fund advisor the average person looks to for advise. I've been out performing everyone I know (small sampling, but its a sampling) who is using a professional manager for the last 2 years. So while yes, it is unwise to get financial advise just any where, you can't discount it because it shows up here... :)
By the way... I would NOT take my advice on investing.. but there are some smart folks here
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A lot of idiots at working claiming they lost or made money yet still own the stock. You don't lose or make shit until you sell.
I try to explain this to people all the time.
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China was fucked in the first place. P/E was outrageous. State controlled stock market was bound to fail.
Plus I don't believe for a second what their government says about the state of their economy. 7% growth? Try 5.
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China was fucked in the first place. P/E was outrageous. State controlled stock market was bound to fail.
Plus I don't believe for a second what their government says about the state of their economy. 7% growth? Try 5.
you know the state partially controls our stock market as well right? Did you actually believe they didnt lol? HAHAHAHA
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Seriously.. I would pit some of those here against any Fund advisor the average person looks to for advise. I've been out performing everyone I know (small sampling, but its a sampling) who is using a professional manager for the last 2 years. So while yes, it is unwise to get financial advise just any where, you can't discount it because it shows up here... :)
By the way... I would NOT take my advice on investing.. but there are some smart folks here
Yeah, you can't responsibly give anyone specific investment advice without knowing a great deal about their own unique needs, goals, risk tolerance, etc, etc.
I talk on here about what I've done and am doing, and what I've read, seen, heard, etc from others - but it's certainly not meant as specific advice for anyone else.
I can give an opinion about something somebody asks me, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they should or should not take my opinion to heart - they're not me, and I'm certainly not always right. Some here like to pm me for investment advice under one gimmick, while they roast me on the board under another gimmick - as if I don't know. ;D
Some REALLY smart and super-rich people are saying we may actually see MORE QE! :-\
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-sees-fed-launching-quantitative-easing-measures-2015-08-25 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-sees-fed-launching-quantitative-easing-measures-2015-08-25)
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I've lost over $22k this week.
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I've lost over $22k this week.
Just hold on a couple months and you'll have you money back.
I've been afraid to check mine. :-X
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you know the state partially controls our stock market as well right? Did you actually believe they didnt lol? HAHAHAHA
No shit, dickhead? That and the economy. It's called a central bank and capital controls. It also modifies behaviour too, pissant.
Just not at the levels the Chinese are doing. Get a clue. ::)
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Just hold on a couple months and you'll have you money back.
I've been afraid to check mine. :-X
Yeah, I'm not worried. But for me it's a hell of a hit in a week.
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Yeah, I'm not worried. But for me it's a hell of a hit in a week.
Checking daily balances in equities is a recipe for insanity.
I did have a co-worker back in the 90's that was waiting for his portfolio to hit a certain dollar amount and then he was going to liquidate it and quit his job. He kept a little window open on his computer screen with his current portfolio value.
I quit that job in '99, but I heard that like 3 months later, he hit his magic number and did exactly what he said he would do. I think that he is just biking around the country now, the only thing that he really liked doing.
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Checking daily balances in equities is a recipe for insanity.
I did have a co-worker back in the 90's that was waiting for his portfolio to hit a certain dollar amount and then he was going to liquidate it and quit his job. He kept a little window open on his computer screen with his current portfolio value.
I quit that job in '99, but I heard that like 3 months later, he hit his magic number and did exactly what he said he would do. I think that he is just biking around the country now, the only thing that he really liked doing.
Good for him. He is providing for himself and doing what he loves. :)
and on an unrelated matter, I agree that checking your portfolio every day is a waste of time.
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No shit, dickhead? That and the economy. It's called a central bank and capital controls. It also modifies behaviour too, pissant.
Just not at the levels the Chinese are doing. Get a clue. ::)
K moron you made it soundn like the Chinese were the only ones...you are truly the idiot I love.
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So is it over?
Or the start of things to come?
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So is it over?
Or the start of things to come?
Still huge budget deficits across the globe, parasitic EU countries, derivatives market ballooned, stagnated Chinese GDP, long term (especially the 10y) loans made prior to 2008 has yet to be repaid. It's a sinking ship with ever increasing number of holes to fill, the ship might not sink today or tomorrow, but eventually we will run out of things to patch up the holes with.
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Good for him. He is providing for himself and doing what he loves. :)
and on an unrelated matter, I agree that checking your portfolio every day is a waste of time.
I do check mine every day, and watch some very closely throughout the day sometimes. But I do this for a living. I'll often buy or buy more of a company if it has sold off hard overnight and become oversold due to such things as an overreaction to earnings or whatever. And I'll often sell at least some of a position if it has jumped up double digits or more overnight. I'll also do the occasional swing trade or day trade here and there with a few bucks.
But yeah, small retail investors in general shouldn't be so obsessive.
On the subject of the Fed, etc... Ray Dalio believes that the Fed will actually start to loosen again soon - just what we need. ::)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-clarifies-prediction-that-fed-will-roll-out-new-qe-2015-08-26 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-clarifies-prediction-that-fed-will-roll-out-new-qe-2015-08-26)
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So is it over?
Or the start of things to come?
It's all just bullshit tests by the big institutional investors trying to prove to the fed that they can kill a market overnight if they want and resurrect it back just as fast. lot of people made some huge gains. Imagine selling Apple for $120 a share, the next day buying it for $92 a share and the next day it's back up to $115. It was instant fucking profit for those fuckers.