Getbig Bodybuilding, Figure and Fitness Forums
Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: 240 is Back on September 05, 2016, 12:51:27 AM
-
Predict now. In 5 days, will this trend continue, with Trump catching and/or leading hilary?
If HoffComposte is right, and 41.7% is Trump's local maximum, which he is at now--- then it'll start to drop now at worst, and just stay at this level at best.
Are these diehard liberals correct? Or will trump continue to make gains - breaking the limit and move up to 43, 44, 45%? WIll hilary keep falling? Predict now!
Examine the trend at http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
There is a clear cyclical variation operating for the last few months in Trump's numbers. Also we appear to be at local maximum (his best performance is (usually) around 42%.
(http://i.imgur.com/eHimjLt.png)
-
Hillary is an utter train wreck right now
-
Hillary is an utter train wreck right now
She's out of bed. Trump is at his 41.7 national average, his local max.
He has to break new ground to the the lead now.
-
MONDAY - Trump drops .1 % in the national average to 41.6%
-
1) There is a delay between events and the polls. The effects of the Mexico trip and Phoenix speech will show up later this week. Expect Trump to drop, especially in states with large latino populations. Like Florida.
2) Some analysis of polls suggest that Trump really hasn't gained anything in the last few weeks, but some Clinton supports are now saying they will vote for Stein or Johnson. Third party voters tend to move back to their primary candidate when it comes the day of the election.
3) Remember Gore won the popular vote, but lost the electoral vote. I don't think that will happen this time. But even if the polls tighten, I just don't see any viable path for Trump to win the electoral vote. Trump would have to win New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa. No way he could win them all.
4) Let's say Trump gets to 270 electoral votes. What are the chances that one is a faithless elector? The electoral college are actual people who meet in December to vote for the President and Vice President, and they are not bound to the candidate they pledged to. The electoral college was specifically designed to prevent crazy shit from happening, like electing someone so unqualified for the job. If enough electors choose not to vote, or vote for someone else, then the election would go to the (new, post election) House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by Republicans, and they can select anyone they want. Then, if I remember my high school civics class correctly, the Senate gets to select the vice president.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
-
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/294552-trump-up-by-2-points-in-new-national-poll
winning
-
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/294552-trump-up-by-2-points-in-new-national-poll
winning
We are going by the aggregate here. This poll has stein at 2, and johnson at 7. other polls all week had Sten at 4 and Johnson at 10. That's where those points came from, they didn't come from clinton - that's a huge deal.
This aggregate is the way to see how the nation is thinking. It averages out outliers. This AM, clinton and trump are both moving up a bit. Maybe the johnson and stein voters are making their decision to choose from trump and hilary?
-
CNN Poll: Clinton Blows Double Digit Lead, Trails Trump By Two Points Nationally
A new CNN poll shows Republican Donald Trump has closed an 11-point gap with Democrat Hillary Clinton and leads her nationally in the race for the White House by two points.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.
Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3466418/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3466418/posts
-
CNN Poll: Clinton Blows Double Digit Lead, Trails Trump By Two Points Nationally
A new CNN poll shows Republican Donald Trump has closed an 11-point gap with Democrat Hillary Clinton and leads her nationally in the race for the White House by two points.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.
Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3466418/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3466418/posts
The SS Clinton has been taking on tons of water last few weeks
-
The SS Clinton has been taking on tons of water last few weeks
they're feeling the heat. this week, they have biden, warren, everyone, out there on the campaign trail. everyone but hilary lol
-
MONDAY - Trump drops .1 % in the national average to 41.6%
TUESDAY - Trump improves .1% in the national average to 41.7%
WEDNESDAY - Trump moves up all the way to 42.4%
Hilary maintains a 5.4% national lead. She moved up as well.
-
Is he peaking or throwing the rigged election, I can't tell?
-
Trump peaked Monday.
538 has Clinton back up over 70% "Now Cast"
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
-
Trump peaked Monday.
538 has Clinton back up over 70% "Now Cast"
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
All part of the plan I'm sure
-
MONDAY - Trump drops .1 % in the national average to 41.6%
TUESDAY - Trump improves .1% in the national average to 41.7%
WEDNESDAY - Trump moves up all the way to 42.4%
THURSDAY - Trump is beginning to level off nationally. Trump is at 40.7% national poll average.
-
How did Friday end?
CLinton 47.3, Trump 42.3%
Hilary has a 5 point lead in the national average
-
It's been 10 days. Hilary is still up 4 points nationally.
Trump keeps leading in that LA Times poll. Everywhere else in RCP, hilary is up 2-6 points nationally.
-
It's been 10 days. Hilary is still up 4 points nationally.
Trump keeps leading in that LA Times poll. Everywhere else in RCP, hilary is up 2-6 points nationally.
These polls are all over the place. Most of them do not provide polling data either.
Bloomberg - +5 Trump in Ohio (9/9 - 9/12)
CBS News - +7 Clinton in Ohio (9/7 - 9/9)
-
These polls are all over the place. Most of them do not provide polling data either.
Bloomberg - +5 Trump in Ohio (9/9 - 9/12)
CBS News - +7 Clinton in Ohio (9/7 - 9/9)
this thread is about the national averages. Overall, trump still trails by 4 points in the national averages.
that has to change if he wishes to win. Everyone was convinced, 10 days ago, that he was climbing. He's not. He's not gone over 45% nationally yet. He's at 42.5% average, running against a zombie.
-
this thread is about the national averages. Overall, trump still trails by 4 points in the national averages.
that has to change if he wishes to win. Everyone was convinced, 10 days ago, that he was climbing. He's not. He's not gone over 45% nationally yet. He's at 42.5% average, running against a zombie.
RCP - Hillary's lead has gone from +6.0 to +2.8 natonally in one month. How is that not climbing?
-
Trump Surges in Polls....Hillary goes down
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ ^
Posted on 9/14/2016, 7:35:43 AM by DOC44
Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 42, Trump 47 Trump +5
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Bloomberg Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 10, Stein 3 Trump +5
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton Bloomberg Clinton 43, Trump 48 Trump +5
Maine: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Boston Globe/SurveyUSA Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 5 Clinton +3
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Boston Globe Trump 47, Clinton 37, Johnson 8, Stein 5 Trump +10
Kansas: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein KSN News/SurveyUSA Trump 48, Clinton 36, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Trump +12
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
-
RCP - Hillary's lead has gone from +6.0 to +2.8 natonally in one month. How is that not climbing?
her post-convention bounce subsided.
-
her post-convention bounce subsided.
whatever makes you sleep at night. :D
-
whatever makes you sleep at night. :D
last monday, all i heard on getbig was that trump was about to take the lead. He's gained some ground back, but I haven't seen him hit 45% nationally yet. I dont know that we will.
Especially because now he's getting slammed again. Trump foundation shit coming. Foreign $ shit coming. Mental health 90s stuff coming. Trump revealing "PART" of his health info on Dr Oz... Dr Oz already said he won't require proof of anything, the entire show is trump's word. IF trump spent time in the 90s in a mental institution, YES, that shit is relevant.
-
last monday, all i heard on getbig was that trump was about to take the lead. He's gained some ground back, but I haven't seen him hit 45% nationally yet. I dont know that we will.
Especially because now he's getting slammed again. Trump foundation shit coming. Foreign $ shit coming. Mental health 90s stuff coming. Trump revealing "PART" of his health info on Dr Oz... Dr Oz already said he won't require proof of anything, the entire show is trump's word. IF trump spent time in the 90s in a mental institution, YES, that shit is relevant.
Just like the Russian loans right? There will never be any definitive proof. Only a distraction for the media to get off of Hillary.
IF Hillary has Parkinson's, YES, that shit relevant.
-
Just like the Russian loans right? There will never be any definitive proof. Only a distraction for the media to get off of Hillary.
IF Hillary has Parkinson's, YES, that shit relevant.
If Trump has russian loans, would you consider that to be relevant?
-
If Trump has russian loans, would you consider that to be relevant?
It would be relevant, yes. Just like Hillary's Saudi donations are relevant.
-
Trump +4 in Florida AND +5 in Ohio today.... The Florida poll wasn't even conducted before 9/11 incident
EDIT: +2 in Nevada in latest Monmouth poll
-
Trump +4 in Florida AND +5 in Ohio today.... The Florida poll wasn't even conducted before 9/11 incident
EDIT: +2 in Nevada in latest Monmouth poll
The word is really starting to get out there and become more mainstream concerning just how bad her issues are.
Amazing Atheist on YouTube put together a video showing around 10 different recorded instances of her poor health. It's worth the watch just to put it in perspective.
The one where she just zoned out on stage and secret service looking dude was about to stick her with something was just incredibly weird. This will go down to the craziest election of our lifetime.
-
The word is really starting to get out there and become more mainstream concerning just how bad her issues are.
Amazing Atheist on YouTube put together a video showing around 10 different recorded instances of her poor health. It's worth the watch just to put it in perspective.
The one where she just zoned out on stage and secret service looking dude was about to stick her with something was just incredibly weird. This will go down to the craziest election of our lifetime.
She looked like a sitcom grandmother who wandered from the nursing home... but in the middle of a political speech for president. Eyes glazed like a donut.
-
She looked like a sitcom grandmother who wandered from the nursing home... but in the middle of a political speech for president. Eyes glazed like a donut.
It's incredible. And they obviously had an exact plan in place when this sort of thing happens.
There is so much stuff going on behind the scenes that we have no idea about.
-
It's incredible. And they obviously had an exact plan in place when this sort of thing happens.
There is so much stuff going on behind the scenes that we have no idea about.
i can imagine. LOL @ biden/obama ticket with michelle obama on there. Dems would love that shit. Of course, can't forget about bernie.
Hillary may come out, hopped up on uppers tonight laughing it off, and it'll take the (accurate) wind out of the far-right's sails.
BUT if she comes out and falls tonight, it's over. They'll oust her.
-
Hillary may come out, hopped up on uppers tonight laughing it off, and it'll take the (accurate) wind out of the far-right's sails.
Hillary's free fall following her 911 seizure/collapse has stopped over the past 2 days. Has Trump peaked? He's leveled over the past 3 days.
Time will tell.
Trump NEEDS to start increasing. He hasn't yet topped his mid-July post-convention highs. Needs to stop leveling and start rising.
-
Hillary's free fall following her 911 seizure/collapse has stopped over the past 2 days. Has Trump peaked? He's leveled over the past 3 days.
Time will tell.
Trump NEEDS to start increasing. He hasn't yet topped his mid-July post-convention highs. Needs to stop leveling and start rising.
Weird, all over the news while doing cardio today, 2 different stations had a "national average" of
Killary 44.9
Trump 44
-
Weird, all over the news while doing cardio today, 2 different stations had a "national average" of
Killary 44.9
Trump 44
This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.
So yes, today's national average is close, but the trend shows where they've been comparatively.
-
This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.
So yes, today's national average is close, but the trend shows where they've been comparatively.
So it's bullshit using averages from past polls?
-
So it's bullshit using averages from past polls?
trends are good. They DID show trump's rise and leveling. Then they DID show hilary freefall after 911 disaster fall. And now they are showing a leveling off now.
Trump is tied, but he's been unable to trend on a national average at 45%. Faith in hilary is AWFUL, but if she can stand thru debates, then she may regain the "she's sick" voters. Trump's ceiling seems to be something he hasn't topped since july.
-
So you're putting faith in a trend in your hopes that Killary can pull out a victory?
Is that from an A+ rated source? Accept nothing less!!
-
RCP - Hillary's lead has gone from +6.0 to +2.8 natonally in one month. How is that not climbing?
Because, after a few days of sticking at that July 20th ceiling again last week, he's begin to drop in national trending.
The 10% that thought hilary was on her last leg are seeing her on TV, and seeing Trump doing nothing that much new.... and they're shifting to Hilary.
National trend averages are very telling. They say he peaked a few days ago, and now he's starting a gradual slide downward.
Clinton 4.1% today after the surveymonkey/NBC poll shows her back up 4 nationally. Even the very friendly LA times has him dropping 2 points in the last 4 days.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
-
Trump 44.1% national average.
Hillary 47.7% national average.
They're both higher than ever. Independents are choosing a candidate.
What effect will the debate have on them? WE'll know by Monday the 3rd or Wednesday the 5th.
-
Trump 44.1% national average.
Hillary 47.7% national average.
Trump was +2 in the CNN poll, one month ago. Today he's down 5. Hilary is up in the average, trump has fallen.
Will he be really good in debate #2 and somehow turn it around?