Getbig.com: American Bodybuilding, Fitness and Figure

Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 03:03:27 AM

Title: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 03:03:27 AM
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 03:13:52 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/DDvjBQq/Screenshot-2020-03-28-at-10-12-41.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: friedchickendinner on March 28, 2020, 03:51:55 AM
Come back in 3 months and see if you still think Corona isn't a big deal.

See you 28th of june.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 03:57:55 AM
Come back in 3 months and see if you still think Corona isn't a big deal.

See you 28th of june. 6th August..

it will go away as fast as it came...
things that rise exponentially also fall exponentially...
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Humble Narcissist on March 28, 2020, 04:21:34 AM
it will go away as fast as it came...
things that rise exponentially also fall exponentially...
And the flu will be back year after year killing more people than the Coronavirus ever did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Humble Narcissist on March 28, 2020, 04:22:50 AM
Come back in 3 months and see if you still think Corona isn't a big deal.

See you 28th of june.
When this thing blows over in a few weeks or months I will be expecting you to bow down and beg my forgiveness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: prowlermaniac on March 28, 2020, 04:37:59 AM
Come back in 3 months and see if you still think Corona isn't a big deal.

See you 28th of june.

You do realize the hockey stick projection will flatten over time right?  There is not going to be exponential growth on this.  Like every virus; or anything for that matter, it has its peak then it will slowly dissipate.  The only unknown at this point is will this become a yearly Thing akin to the flu or will it disappear as fast as it arrived?
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Darren Avey on March 28, 2020, 05:17:44 AM
Come back in 3 months and see if you still think Corona isn't a big deal.

See you 28th of june.

Yeh see you then when were all back to normal. I'll post from the gym after I've squatted 6 wheels aside
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: mazrim on March 28, 2020, 05:41:40 AM
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 06:03:39 AM
Please compare C19's progressive nature to other viruses.  I would say, in vitro, but lets just go with naturally occurring for the moment to make Asians happy.  ::)   Also someone interpreted Herd Immunity (too many phucking threads to bother looking it up) wrong here.  You need vaccines incorporated.  You can't just let 60% of the population become infected and do a body count after. Thanks.  

thats was the original plan in the UK...
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Twaddle on March 28, 2020, 06:24:03 AM


The narrator keeps saying "I believe" and "I think".

One could conclude that he's not entirely confident in his own assumptions.   :-\
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 06:34:22 AM
The narrator keeps saying "I believe" and "I think".

One could conclude that he's not entirely confident in his own assumptions.   :-\

some of his assumptions are based on guesstimates a ballpark figure..the goalposts are constantly moving... its a hypothesis
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Irongrip400 on March 28, 2020, 06:50:01 AM
Please compare C19's progressive nature to other viruses.  I would say, in vitro, but lets just go with naturally occurring for the moment to make Asians happy.  ::)   Also someone interpreted Herd Immunity (too many phucking threads to bother looking it up) wrong here.  You need vaccines incorporated.  You can't just let 60% of the population become infected and do a body count after. Thanks.  

At what point do you weigh this against the outcome of a total economic collapse?
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: pamith on March 28, 2020, 06:56:06 AM
It may last the whole year, no?
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 07:00:15 AM
It may last the whole year, no?
No...not at the rate its going, the fear of economic collapse will override the fear of Covid 19
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Flexacon on March 28, 2020, 07:03:09 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/DDvjBQq/Screenshot-2020-03-28-at-10-12-41.png)

Half the people who suffer from heart disease, cancer, RD, diabetes etc and who were gonna die at some point this year will get taken out by covid19.

Overall deaths at the end year won't look much worse than a bad flu year, but that's only if measures are taken against the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: El Diablo Blanco on March 28, 2020, 07:04:55 AM
It wouldn’t be too bad if it took out half of the worlds population and what I mean about half is wiping out China, India and Africa.   Imagine how much better this world would be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 07:07:36 AM
It wouldn’t be too bad if it took out half of the worlds population and what I mean about half is wiping out China, India and Africa.   Imagine how much better this world would be.
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/ie76dJeem4xBDcf83e/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Twaddle on March 28, 2020, 07:09:22 AM
some of his assumptions are based on guesstimates a ballpark figure..the goalposts are constantly moving... its a hypothesis

But, the title of the video is "Fact not Fear".

Which is it?  Fact, fear, guesstimates?   ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Board_SHERIF on March 28, 2020, 08:11:51 AM
It wouldn’t be too bad if it took out half of the worlds population and what I mean about half is wiping out China, India and Africa.   Imagine how much better this world would be.

Yes ALL OF ASIA would be a great  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 10:32:23 AM
But, the title of the video is "Fact not Fear".

Which is it?  Fact, fear, guesstimates?   ???
watch it and find out

All the stats are taken from the WHO website, they are official stats
The WHO cant post hypothesis, thats what he does..
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: loco on March 28, 2020, 10:33:52 AM
No...not at the rate its going, the fear of economic collapse will override the fear of Covid 19

Money talks, although a small group at the very top is making a fortune out of this hoax:  Trillion dollars of tax payer money lining their pockets, insider trading, exclusive deals going to vaccine makers, test kit makers, PPE makers, etc., and many other schemes we aren't yet even aware of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: loco on March 28, 2020, 10:35:38 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/DDvjBQq/Screenshot-2020-03-28-at-10-12-41.png)

Peoples is afraid to die, but death can't be stopped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: visualizeperfection on March 28, 2020, 10:36:22 AM
Money talks, although a small group at the very top is making a fortune out of this hoax:  Trillion dollars of tax payer money lining their pockets, insider trading, exclusive deals going to vaccine makers, test kit makers, PPE makers, etc., and many other schemes we aren't yet even aware of.

We have gotten too soft. Anyone who is profiting off of this, via clearly illegal means, should be dealt with in the most extreme of ways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Primemuscle on March 28, 2020, 10:55:02 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/DDvjBQq/Screenshot-2020-03-28-at-10-12-41.png)

What's interesting is that these numbers were compiled before the coronavirus was an issue. Also, keep in mind that it is COVID-19, one of the many strains of the coronavirus which is currently wrecking havoc around the world. Why is it that otherwise intelligent and reasonable people compare apples to oranges so frequently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 10:57:14 AM
What's interesting is that these numbers were compiled before the coronavirus was an issue. Also, keep in mind that it is COVID-19, one of the many strains of the coronavirus which is currently wrecking havoc around the world. Why is it that otherwise intelligent and reasonable people compare apples to oranges so frequently.

mmm.. thats what stats are, people compile them every year to study trends, you dont think someone just came up with these because of the Covid19 epidemic do you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Straw Man on March 28, 2020, 11:03:58 AM
Half the people who suffer from heart disease, cancer, RD, diabetes etc and who were gonna die at some point this year will get taken out by covid19.

Overall deaths at the end year won't look much worse than a bad flu year, but that's only if measures are taken against the virus.

how many of those diseases are highly contagious, and are spread by infected people who have no symptoms?

how many of those diseases are growing exponentially?

how many of those diseases are infecting and killing the medical personal caring for the victims?

how many of those diseases lack adequate testing ?

how many of those diseases did the Liar in Chief call a hoax and claim he had under control?

Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 11:07:56 AM
how many of those diseases are highly contagious, and are spread by infected people who have no symptoms?

how many of those diseases are growing exponentially?

how many of those diseases are infecting and killing the medical personal caring for the victims?

how many of those diseases lack adequate testing ?

how many of those diseases did the Liar in Chief call a hoax and claim he had under control?


Exponential growth is followed by exponential disappearance..especiall y for something that for most will be minor or no symptoms
Lots get ill quickly, lots get better, and then its gone, sadly, some die, but people die all the time..
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Primemuscle on March 28, 2020, 11:13:48 AM
Exponential growth is followed by exponential disappearance..especiall y for something that for most will be minor or no symptoms
Lots get ill quickly, lots get better, and then its gone, sadly, some die, but people die all the time..

Just how many die, remains to be known. Many if not most illnesses more seriously affect the old and those whose health is already compromised. In this way COVID-19 is no different than a host of other viruses one might contract. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: OAK on March 28, 2020, 11:14:57 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/DDvjBQq/Screenshot-2020-03-28-at-10-12-41.png)

These numbers are already accounted for. COVID 19 death is new.

Not worrying about the COVID virus would be like asking the bank to loan you another $10,000 because the $100,000 that you already owe them is their real problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Straw Man on March 28, 2020, 11:21:53 AM
Exponential growth is followed by exponential disappearance..especiall y for something that for most will be minor or no symptoms
Lots get ill quickly, lots get better, and then its gone, sadly, some die, but people die all the time..

exponential is by definition is "rapid growth"

there is no such thing as exponential disappearance

Rapid and exponential growth of an very easily transmitted disease with a 2% mortality rate is a fucking disaster, especially when we lack the ability to test and will quickly run out of the ability (equipment and personnel) to care for the sick.   

you failed to address any of my questions or the fact that our government (if you're in the US) failed to take action when they had an opportunity to get out in front or at least get an early attempt at flattening the curve

Instead the Trump administration just make things worse
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 11:22:06 AM
These numbers are already accounted for. COVID 19 death is new.

Not worrying about the COVID virus would be like asking the bank to loan you another $10,000 because the $100,000 that you already owe them is their real problem.

and highly likely to be a one off

the total figures will end up a small stat in the general scheme of things

Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 11:29:22 AM
exponential is by definition is "rapid growth"

there is no such thing as exponential disappearance

Rapid and exponential growth of an very easily transmitted disease with a 2% mortality rate is a fucking disaster, especially when we lack the ability to test and will quickly run out of the ability (equipment and personnel) to care for the sick.   

you failed to address any of my questions or the fact that our government (if you're in the US) failed to take action when they had an opportunity to get out in front or at least get an early attempt at flattening the curve

Instead the Trump administration just make things worse

But it wont end up being a 2% mortality rate, it will flatten out

Im in the UK and were are in the same shit as the USA

Taiwan and Singapore dealt with it simply and easily
Mass testing and isolated positive cases in strict lockdown... rest of society carried on as normal

Total death toll 2 each...

Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: visualizeperfection on March 28, 2020, 11:36:23 AM
Ok, question... so we take precautions and lock down the whole world. The virus has no vaccine, so we stay closed for eternity? Lock it down till a vaccine is formulated in a year plus? Lock it down for a month, tank the economy, destroy peoples retirements, and then say "fuck it" business as usual and everyone still gets sick?

One of my associates took such a big hit on his 401k he is no longer retiring this year. Fucked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Flexacon on March 28, 2020, 11:52:58 AM
But it wont end up being a 2% mortality rate, it will flatten out

Im in the UK and were are in the same shit as the USA

Taiwan and Singapore dealt with it simply and easily
Mass testing and isolated positive cases in strict lockdown... rest of society carried on as normal

Total death toll 2 each...



Taiwan and Singapore have stopped the virus from spreading, but that doesn't mean they have dealt with it and their new normal is not what it was pre covid19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Straw Man on March 28, 2020, 11:56:46 AM
But it wont end up being a 2% mortality rate, it will flatten out

Im in the UK and were are in the same shit as the USA

Taiwan and Singapore dealt with it simply and easily
Mass testing and isolated positive cases in strict lockdown... rest of society carried on as normal

Total death toll 2 each...



exactly

mass testing and quick isolation of anyone who test positive

If we (in the US) taken this seriously in February (or early January at they did in Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.. we might not have had to shut down half the country

In the long run the economic carnage will greatly outweigh the health consequences
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 12:10:51 PM
exactly

mass testing and quick isolation of anyone who test positive

If we (in the US) taken this seriously in February (or early January at they did in Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, etc.. we might not have had to shut down half the country

In the long run the economic carnage will greatly outweigh the health consequences

Agreed
And we had some clever people on both sides of the water dealing with this, its like it was allowed to get out of hand on purpose, either that or its gross incompetence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Dave D on March 28, 2020, 12:29:18 PM
Come back in 3 months and see if you still think Corona isn't a big deal.

See you 28th of june.

June 28th?

What’s the more likely scenario, you’ve contracted the virus and you end up piled on a doorstep

OR

You’re banned? Again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Army of One on March 28, 2020, 12:30:15 PM
Agreed
And we had some clever people on both sides of the water dealing with this, its like it was allowed to get out of hand on purpose, either that or its gross incompetence.

Most people are sheep with no common sense or foresight, even people with book-smarts.They parroted the "its just a flu" line because they cannot conceptualize anything out of the ordinary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Dave D on March 28, 2020, 12:40:28 PM
Most people are sheep with no common sense or foresight, even people with book-smarts.They parroted the "its just a flu" line because they cannot conceptualize anything out of the ordinary.

Army he said clever people not most.

Most people parrot what they are told, few are willing to learn outside of being told.

You had an opinion on how horrible this was going to be from day one, long before China was even making it clear what was happening. If you were able to get ahead of this why wasn’t one of our world leaders? And that is Joswift is referring to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: joswift on March 28, 2020, 12:49:17 PM
Army he said clever people not most.

Most people parrot what they are told, few are willing to learn outside of being told.

You had an opinion on how horrible this was going to be from day one, long before China was even making it clear what was happening. If you were able to get ahead of this why wasn’t one of our world leaders? And that is Joswift is referring to.
exactly..
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Primemuscle on March 28, 2020, 01:24:11 PM
Ok, question... so we take precautions and lock down the whole world. The virus has no vaccine, so we stay closed for eternity? Lock it down till a vaccine is formulated in a year plus? Lock it down for a month, tank the economy, destroy peoples retirements, and then say "fuck it" business as usual and everyone still gets sick?

One of my associates took such a big hit on his 401k he is no longer retiring this year. Fucked.

Good thing your associate didn't already retire and begin drawing on their 401K or they'd be taking a hit with less ability to recover. Retirees like myself, sometimes believe their retirement payout is guaranteed. It isn't, even when it is supposed to be, like mine. 80% of my retirement is from Public resources. If the SS and PERS goes bust, so do I. A guaranteed annuity is only as good as long as there are funds to support it. Of course, if the economy is so bad that these benefits get cut, pretty much everyone will be broke. Hope that never happens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: visualizeperfection on March 28, 2020, 01:30:03 PM
Good thing your associate didn't already retire and begin drawing on their 401K or they'd be taking a hit with less ability to recover. Retirees like myself, sometimes believe their retirement payout is guaranteed. It isn't, even when it is supposed to be, like mine. 80% of my retirement is from Public resources. If the SS and PERS goes bust, so do I. A guaranteed annuity is only as good as long as there are funds to support it. Of course, if the economy is so bad that these benefits get cut, pretty much everyone will be broke. Hope that never happens.

That’s true. At least he is still pulling a salary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Primemuscle on March 28, 2020, 01:33:30 PM
That’s true. At least he is still pulling a salary.

Yup. Talk to people who retired shortly before the crash of 2008. Some of those people who thought they were set for life, found out otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Hypertrophy on March 28, 2020, 01:42:38 PM
exponential is by definition is "rapid growth"

there is no such thing as exponential disappearance

Rapid and exponential growth of an very easily transmitted disease with a 2% mortality rate is a fucking disaster, especially when we lack the ability to test and will quickly run out of the ability (equipment and personnel) to care for the sick.  

you failed to address any of my questions or the fact that our government (if you're in the US) failed to take action when they had an opportunity to get out in front or at least get an early attempt at flattening the curve

Instead the Trump administration just make things worse

The exact phrase is exponential decay. And joswift is correct.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_decay
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Hypertrophy on March 28, 2020, 01:44:11 PM
Yup. Talk to people who retired shortly before the crash of 2008. Some of those people who thought they were set for life, found out otherwise.

It rebounded pretty quick. I had significant losses in 2008-2009 but by 2010 I was above the levels I had been prior to the crash.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Hypertrophy on March 28, 2020, 01:45:14 PM
Most people are sheep with no common sense or foresight, even people with book-smarts.They parroted the "its just a flu" line because they cannot conceptualize anything out of the ordinary.

Dude- you are so full of yourself. And you are incorrect, as usual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: Primemuscle on March 28, 2020, 01:47:33 PM
Most people are sheep with no common sense or foresight, even people with book-smarts.They parroted the "its just a flu" line because they cannot conceptualize anything out of the ordinary.

We said things like "its just the flu" with the hope that we would be right. What was your hope?
Title: Re: Coronavirus risk ratio
Post by: illuminati on March 28, 2020, 01:51:05 PM
But it wont end up being a 2% mortality rate, it will flatten out

Im in the UK and were are in the same shit as the USA

Taiwan and Singapore dealt with it simply and easily
Mass testing and isolated positive cases in strict lockdown... rest of society carried on as normal

Total death toll 2 each...




Wow & Look At the mess we’re in here in the U.K.
I’m no longer sure what or who to believe- so Much counter information about.

From what you point out with them 2 countries it appears it could’ve be far better managed over Here.