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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Mayday on September 21, 2022, 05:23:14 PM
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CPI went up to 8.3% and rates rose 0.75%. Rates are now 3%-3.25%.
Nothing has yet broken. No credit collapse. No property crash. Bond market continues to increase rates.
Fed initial year end rate target is 3.9% so we have 1 more rate hike to go before year end. Their initial CPI target was 2% however this was revised to ballpark 4.5%-5%.
Equities have attempted another sell off and still cannot reach new lows.
Black swan scenario could be staring at us in the face. The black swan being we go up….. markets are so one sided they can’t sell off (at least so far this is what I see), meanwhile rates keep rising and the economy will end up breaking in Q4-Q1 period in which case QE stimmy is thrown in over the top of rates which causes another bullrun and we never get that massive crash people are dreaming of.
I had Q4 2022 always as a key period but I thought we’d have sold off deeper by now.
All my positions have been in profit this entire time. So much for an alt coin nuke.
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Nobody knows 'nuthin.
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Nobody knows 'nuthin.
(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/100297027-GettyImages-94817020.jpg?v=1536769821&w=929&h=523)
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Seems gaycoins maake no porofit from sept 2021.
Gas is higher from last sept may go back up next month?
Fed rate must go higher to punish society growth
The fed wins everrytime
.75 rate hike is only an extra $$1000 bucks for every 100k loan
the fed needs to raise rate 5to 8% more to wake us up
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Seems gaycoins maake no porofit from sept 2021.
Gas is higher from last sept may go back up next month?
Fed rate must go higher to punish society growth
The fed wins everrytime
.75 rate hike is only an extra $$1000 bucks for every 100k loan
the fed needs to raise rate 5to 8% more to wake us up
I’ll have to check my own data map but from memory we need rates to go up and meet the inflationary spike and come down together to have things under control.
In scenarios where rates went up say halfway and inflation came down to meet them, the economy broke and the govt was forced to quickly pump in huge fiscal spending which triggered off inflation again.
How we have ultimately resolved inflationary waves was by rates going up and meeting the peak inflation number. Why this works is because it’s the point of equilibrium of the pendulum swing. Right now we have inflation on a separate swing to rates therefore we are not on the same pendulum movement if that makes sense.
In other words, as I banged on a lot here the next inflationary wave will melt your face off and then you will realise how fucked you are as the next 20% car price increase is on top of the existing 20% increase. Just wait and see, the Car price will have tripled by 2030 from 2020……
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I thought in his own way JPowell was pretty clear. Unemployment needs to go up before anything else can happen and that could take a while.
Also Bitcoin is down 20% from it's high this month and ETH is down 30%. Alts are similarly down. Almost everything is near or at it's yearly low. Forex is the main reason most green portfolios are still a solid green for the year. I'm just glad I got out at the monthly peak with some profit. September is not the month to hold crypto.
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I’ve been in cash all year but this has been the trade, short long duration Treasuries and it still looks live with no bottom in sight.
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It comes down to how many things hurt your wallet by how much
If they can gradually put thhe hurtinng on people it will slow inflation rate
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Pope Francis instructs Vatican entities to move all funds to Vatican bank by Sept. 30
https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/252093/pope-francis-instructs-vatican-entities-to-move-all-funds-to-vatican-bank-by-sept-30
'Pope Francis has ordered that the Holy See and connected entities move all financial assets to the Institute for Works of Religion (IOR), commonly known as the Vatican bank.
According to Francis’ rescript, financial and liquid assets held in banks other than the IOR must be moved to the Vatican bank within 30 days of Sept. 1, 2022.'
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I thought in his own way JPowell was pretty clear. Unemployment needs to go up before anything else can happen and that could take a while.
Also Bitcoin is down 20% from it's high this month and ETH is down 30%. Alts are similarly down. Almost everything is near or at it's yearly low. Forex is the main reason most green portfolios are still a solid green for the year. I'm just glad I got out at the monthly peak with some profit. September is not the month to hold crypto.
Agreed on powell, he has been burned and now is hiking until inflation comes down considerably, its clear that they will rather over than understeer. People continue to speculate and over think these things , its pretty transparent
They want the Volcker legacy, their new demi God, this notion will steel them through the rising pushback as unemployment increase is quite literally the desired outcome. And the market will move further down.
Recession very likely but the USA will come back it always does,for all its flaws its got (relative) capitalism, big popn with decent demographic spread , abundant energy and (relative) democracy. Doomsayer forecasts won't pan out inflation will likely settle higher over the long term due to de-globalisation but the us isn't becoming the Weimer Republic any time soon or later
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After midterms in the USA gas will hit $8 per gallon.
Joe Hazelwood could do a better job of driving this thing than the current fool.
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I thought in his own way JPowell was pretty clear. Unemployment needs to go up before anything else can happen and that could take a while.
Also Bitcoin is down 20% from it's high this month and ETH is down 30%. Alts are similarly down. Almost everything is near or at it's yearly low. Forex is the main reason most green portfolios are still a solid green for the year. I'm just glad I got out at the monthly peak with some profit. September is not the month to hold crypto.
Inflation lags by 6mths or so which technically means CPI topped out near the start of the year. Today we are at 8.3% and March 6mths prior was a 0.25% rate rise up to 0.5%.
Next rate change was 0.5% in May which would be felt around Nov-Dec. Raising until something breaks means over tightening. If it only takes 0.75% rise and we increased another 3% you can quickly see what a clusterfucker awaits us on the downside. We were in 1968 in 2020 which is the primer for the next wave. No way will the Fed be able to softly land the biggest inflationary wave of our generation, it’ll play out over 10-15yrs and we’ll end up at 15%-20% before it’s under control.
Bitcoin is above its June low. All the FUD, rate rises, coins loaded onto exchanges and…… nothing.
I’ve been in cash all year but this has been the trade, short long duration Treasuries and it still looks live with no bottom in sight.
Yep, makes you wonder if the bond market calls the Fed’s bluff and thinks inflation is here for 10yrs+.
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After midterms in the USA gas will hit $8 per gallon.
Joe Hazelwood could do a better job of driving this thing than the current fool.
But at least they got the bad orange man out of office.
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Don't fight the Fed.
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Why would an idiot gamble with worthless gaycoin, its safer to invest in a good vehicle or home wich always go up
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Why would an idiot gamble with worthless gaycoin, its safer to invest in a good vehicle or home wich always go up
Talk is cheap.
I’d wager nobody took greater risk on their home, max debt and family than me.
Now I’m saying the market has bottomed and I’m heavily in.
Crypto offers a limited window. I’m calling a 96k top next run. It isn’t easy at all, it’s rocket science.
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CPI went up to 8.3% and rates rose 0.75%. Rates are now 3%-3.25%.
Nothing has yet broken. No credit collapse. No property crash. Bond market continues to increase rates.
Fed initial year end rate target is 3.9% so we have 1 more rate hike to go before year end. Their initial CPI target was 2% however this was revised to ballpark 4.5%-5%.
Equities have attempted another sell off and still cannot reach new lows.
Black swan scenario could be staring at us in the face. The black swan being we go up….. markets are so one sided they can’t sell off (at least so far this is what I see), meanwhile rates keep rising and the economy will end up breaking in Q4-Q1 period in which case QE stimmy is thrown in over the top of rates which causes another bullrun and we never get that massive crash people are dreaming of.
I had Q4 2022 always as a key period but I thought we’d have sold off deeper by now.
All my positions have been in profit this entire time. So much for an alt coin nuke.
You are so special Mayday. Like the Bhanky of finance, lol
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The only possible way you are still in profit with altcoins is if you bought in 2020.
Middle class currently getting rekt
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Two years in office and ZERO market gains not to mention building permit as well as housing are taking huge hits. The poor and middle classes are getting killed. Socialism/Marxism has never worked in the history of the world but people still believe in it…quite a few on here
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Two years in office and ZERO market gains not to mention building permit as well as housing are taking huge hits. The poor and middle classes are getting killed. Socialism/Marxism has never worked in the history of the world but people still believe in it…quite a few on here
The only people who actually believe in Socialism are ones who have never lived in a socialist society.
It's ignorance at it's finest/grass is greener mentality
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Talk is cheap.
I’d wager nobody took greater risk on their home, max debt and family than me.
Now I’m saying the market has bottomed and I’m heavily in.
Crypto offers a limited window. I’m calling a 96k top next run. It isn’t easy at all, it’s rocket science.
$96k for bitcoin? Lol based on what
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Two years in office and ZERO market gains not to mention building permit as well as housing are taking huge hits. The poor and middle classes are getting killed. Socialism/Marxism has never worked in the history of the world but people still believe in it…quite a few on here
what socialist policies has Biden enacted? I must have missed them
Trump did plenty of socialist stuff during the pandemic, btw.. Mortgage forbearance, stimulus checks, free covid care, enhanced unemployment, pausing student loan payments, free lunches for school kids, PPP program
All that stuff was pretty popular and worked well to support US citizens during such a trying time. Personally, i think it's good when the government provides things to its constituents
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$96k for bitcoin? Lol based on what
There are some who believe that a "soft landing" won't be possible so instead the stockmarkets will melt up to a new all time high, just so it can dump harder and take us lower than we are now. As a risk on asset bitcoin would pump with it to a new all time high too.
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There are some who believe that a "soft landing" won't be possible so instead the stockmarkets will melt up to a new all time high, just so it can dump harder and take us lower than we are now. As a risk on asset bitcoin would pump with it to a new all time high too.
I agree w your first statement but Bitcoin reaching a new all time high is far from guaranteed. There's some inherent value to it as a means to transfer/launder currency but beyond that its just another speculative financial instrument.
The heights it reached last time were fueled by hype and widespread buy-in by the public. Now it's lost its novelty and those who've lost money on it see it as a scam. I just don't see what would drive it back up to the levels we saw before--let alone $96k.
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Apropos of nothing :D
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Btc will easily hit a new ath, no question in my mind. Eventually btc will be worth. 1,000,000.
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I agree w your first statement but Bitcoin reaching a new all time high is far from guaranteed. There's some inherent value to it as a means to transfer/launder currency but beyond that its just another speculative financial instrument.
The heights it reached last time were fueled by hype and widespread buy-in by the public. Now it's lost its novelty and those who've lost money on it see it as a scam. I just don't see what would drive it back up to the levels we saw before--let alone $96k.
Bitcoin has gone through several cycles of people saying this exact same thing. I was saying it myself 7 or 8 years ago. It's a is pretty well documented psychological phenomenon now.
All the big market makers like citadel, virtu and brokers like Fidelity are moving into crypto. Once btc finds the right market conditions it will hit $96k like it was nothing.
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$96k for bitcoin? Lol based on what
My own calculation for BtC top was 60k this run before I discovered Twitter, YouTube and bought newsletters to supposed on chain and trading gurus. All people much smarter than me said it was higher. in December I almost got wrecked following advice and since then I do my own thing. I’d rather get nuked by my own decisions.
Anyhoo I look at 3 things which is difference from peak to peak, difference top to bottom, difference bottom to top and go from there. For round numbers and simplicity sake i use 64k as the official top and believe it’s a 1.5x.
What also supports this is the rule of zeros. Average Joe loves round numbers 10, 100, 1,000 etc. the reality is you play before it or just after it eg 95 / 105.
The only possible way you are still in profit with altcoins is if you bought in 2020.
Middle class currently getting rekt
Sold in December.
Bought SOL @ 30.2 which is $32 at the moment. Perhaps that dipped for a moment under my buy this week?
Bought HEX @ 0.0306 which is 0.032 at the moment. I think did tap under my buy yesterday.
Hedron at 0.0000021 which did a 3x and after a pullback it’s at +40%.
I could get wrecked. We could crash 50%+ from here. I’ve always been open about what I bought and prices, if I’m wrong I’m wrong. My conclusion from crypto is all that matters is the entry price so I can dump earlier than peak prices because the peak is too hard to guess.
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It’s all talk. Markets don’t give a fuck about anybody’s “Thesis” or their “High Conviction.”
This is the only reality:
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It’s all talk. Markets don’t give a fuck about anybody’s “Thesis” or their “High Conviction.”
This is the only reality:
Many possibilities. Throw half a mill in and you need conviction. I don’t think 98% know what ‘thesis’ means. It reminds me of when Crypto Twitter had people bragging they did an online autism test and scored really high therefore they must be super smart. I guess thesis is on trend like autism was lol.
The super easy point is Among a number of other things, RSI bottom was tagged in June at the level of every other major bottom in crypto. it tagged 2D, 4D, 1W, 2W, M. It has not broken trend yet however we have never had it tag the bottom level twice in quick succession. The FUD was much worse this month and Sept is a bloodbath generally as Flex has said yet we haven’t set a new low yet.
Markets will be gnarly this time because you all know the answer and majority always win right…..
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what socialist policies has Biden enacted? I must have missed them
Lets see..Inflation is around 8.6% as opposed to 1.4% in 2020, national average price for gas is about $4.65 and as high as $6.00 in California (this kills the middle and poor) and the fake administration is slowing new oil production and selling from our strategic reserves to other countries....communist countries, we have shortages of baby formula, personal hygiene products and fertilizer and blaming the Russian war for it, since he's taken office over 4million are crossing the Southern border with thousands crossing daily, crime is at an all time high in ALL Dem ran cities, billions going to Ukraine with pork to help pay for their "green new deal' as well as other bills that add up to billions with pork to pay their "green new deal", infringing on our 2nd amendment rights, bail reform, the racial division, the gender division, the religious division, the Stalinist tactics of the fake January 6 commission and the war on political opposition..I'll stop here but I could go on all night, as a matter of fact, let me know when you want me to stop!
Trump did plenty of socialist stuff during the pandemic, btw.. Mortgage forbearance, stimulus checks, free covid care, enhanced unemployment, pausing student loan payments, free lunches for school kids, PPP program
All that stuff was pretty popular and worked well to support US citizens during such a trying time. Personally, i think it's good when the government provides things to its constituents
This is intellectual dishonesty as it's finest right here.
As Trumps Chief medical advisor, it was Fauci that told Trump the country should be shut down for 15 days to "flatten the curve" (Feb 2020) then if memory serves, it was extended, then extended yet again. Yes, Trump did issue stimulus checks to those in need BUT it was I believe in MARCH he told the states to start opening the economy back up to end it. He knew that any longer would be an economic disaster. At this point we were in an election year, for the most part the Blue states refused to open their economies back up and the red states started a recovery. We are a states rights country...take it from there
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I agree w your first statement but Bitcoin reaching a new all time high is far from guaranteed. There's some inherent value to it as a means to transfer/launder currency but beyond that its just another speculative financial instrument.
The heights it reached last time were fueled by hype and widespread buy-in by the public. Now it's lost its novelty and those who've lost money on it see it as a scam. I just don't see what would drive it back up to the levels we saw before--let alone $96k.
Everytime crypto crashes or enters a bear market we hear this.
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To my point from yesterday…btw, as of this morning we are now at negative gains in two years of this fake administration. This is done on purpose and you voted for it..
https://www.foxnews.com/media/ron-klain-slammed-description-economy-biden-inherited-hellish-conditionsperpetuated-party