0.75% rate rise

[Mayday]

CPI went up to 8.3% and rates rose 0.75%. Rates are now 3%-3.25%.

Nothing has yet broken. No credit collapse. No property crash. Bond market continues to increase rates.

Fed initial year end rate target is 3.9% so we have 1 more rate hike to go before year end. Their initial CPI target was 2% however this was revised to ballpark 4.5%-5%.

Equities have attempted another sell off and still cannot reach new lows.

Black swan scenario could be staring at us in the face. The black swan being we go up….. markets are so one sided they can’t sell off (at least so far this is what I see), meanwhile rates keep rising and the economy will end up breaking in Q4-Q1 period in which case QE stimmy is thrown in over the top of rates which causes another bullrun and we never get that massive crash people are dreaming of.

I had Q4 2022 always as a key period but I thought we’d have sold off deeper by now.

All my positions have been in profit this entire time. So much for an alt coin nuke.

[IroNat]

Nobody knows 'nuthin.

[loco]

Nobody knows 'nuthin.

[Marty Champions]

Seems gaycoins maake no porofit from sept 2021.
Gas is higher from last sept may go back up next month?
Fed rate must go higher to punish society growth

The fed wins everrytime

 .75 rate hike is only an extra $$1000 bucks for every 100k loan
 the fed needs to raise rate 5to 8% more to wake us up

[Mayday]

Seems gaycoins maake no porofit from sept 2021.
Gas is higher from last sept may go back up next month?
Fed rate must go higher to punish society growth

The fed wins everrytime

 .75 rate hike is only an extra $$1000 bucks for every 100k loan
 the fed needs to raise rate 5to 8% more to wake us up

I’ll have to check my own data map but from memory we need rates to go up and meet the inflationary spike and come down together to have things under control.

In scenarios where rates went up say halfway and inflation came down to meet them, the economy broke and the govt was forced to quickly pump in huge fiscal spending which triggered off inflation again.

How we have ultimately resolved inflationary waves was by rates going up and meeting the peak inflation number. Why this works is because it’s the point of equilibrium of the pendulum swing. Right now we have inflation on a separate swing to rates therefore we are not on the same pendulum movement if that makes sense.

 In other words, as I banged on a lot here the next inflationary wave will melt your face off and then you will realise how fucked you are as the next 20% car price increase is on top of the existing 20% increase. Just wait and see, the Car price will have tripled by 2030 from 2020……

[Flexacon]

I thought in his own way JPowell was pretty clear. Unemployment needs to go up before anything else can happen and that could take a while.

Also Bitcoin is down 20% from it's high this month and ETH is down 30%. Alts are similarly down. Almost everything is near or at it's yearly low. Forex is the main reason most green portfolios are still a solid green for the year. I'm just glad I got out at the monthly peak with some profit. September is not the month to hold crypto.

[Thin Lizzy]

I’ve been in cash all year but this has been the trade, short long duration Treasuries and it still looks live with no bottom in sight.

[Marty Champions]

It comes down to how many things hurt your wallet by how much
If they can gradually put thhe hurtinng on people it will slow inflation rate

[Zillotch]

Pope Francis instructs Vatican entities to move all funds to Vatican bank by Sept. 30

https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/252093/pope-francis-instructs-vatican-entities-to-move-all-funds-to-vatican-bank-by-sept-30

'Pope Francis has ordered that the Holy See and connected entities move all financial assets to the Institute for Works of Religion (IOR), commonly known as the Vatican bank.

According to Francis’ rescript, financial and liquid assets held in banks other than the IOR must be moved to the Vatican bank within 30 days of Sept. 1, 2022.'

[delon]

I thought in his own way JPowell was pretty clear. Unemployment needs to go up before anything else can happen and that could take a while.

Also Bitcoin is down 20% from it's high this month and ETH is down 30%. Alts are similarly down. Almost everything is near or at it's yearly low. Forex is the main reason most green portfolios are still a solid green for the year. I'm just glad I got out at the monthly peak with some profit. September is not the month to hold crypto.

Agreed on powell, he has been burned and now is hiking until inflation comes down considerably, its clear that they will rather over than understeer. People continue to speculate and over think these things , its pretty transparent

They want the Volcker legacy, their new demi God,  this notion will steel them through the rising pushback as unemployment increase is quite literally the desired outcome. And the market will move further down.

Recession very likely but the USA will come back it always does,for all its flaws its got (relative) capitalism, big popn with decent demographic spread , abundant energy and (relative) democracy.  Doomsayer forecasts won't pan out inflation will likely settle higher over the long term due to de-globalisation but the us isn't becoming the Weimer Republic any time soon or later

 

[tommywishbone]

After midterms in the USA gas will hit $8 per gallon.

Joe Hazelwood could do a better job of driving this thing than the current fool.

[Mayday]

I thought in his own way JPowell was pretty clear. Unemployment needs to go up before anything else can happen and that could take a while.

Also Bitcoin is down 20% from it's high this month and ETH is down 30%. Alts are similarly down. Almost everything is near or at it's yearly low. Forex is the main reason most green portfolios are still a solid green for the year. I'm just glad I got out at the monthly peak with some profit. September is not the month to hold crypto.

Inflation lags by 6mths or so which technically means CPI topped out near the start of the year. Today we are at 8.3% and March 6mths prior was a 0.25% rate rise up to 0.5%.

Next rate change was 0.5% in May which would be felt around Nov-Dec. Raising until something breaks means over tightening. If it only takes 0.75% rise and we increased another 3% you can quickly see what a clusterfucker awaits us on the downside. We were in 1968 in 2020 which is the primer for the next wave. No way will the Fed be able to softly land the biggest inflationary wave of our generation, it’ll play out over 10-15yrs and we’ll end up at 15%-20% before it’s under control.

Bitcoin is above its June low. All the FUD, rate rises, coins loaded onto exchanges and…… nothing.

I’ve been in cash all year but this has been the trade, short long duration Treasuries and it still looks live with no bottom in sight.

Yep, makes you wonder if the bond market calls the Fed’s bluff and thinks inflation is here for 10yrs+.

[Humble Narcissist]

After midterms in the USA gas will hit $8 per gallon.

Joe Hazelwood could do a better job of driving this thing than the current fool.

But at least they got the bad orange man out of office.

[IroNat]

Don't fight the Fed.

[Marty Champions]

Why would an idiot gamble with worthless gaycoin, its safer to invest in a good vehicle or home wich always go up

[Mayday]

Why would an idiot gamble with worthless gaycoin, its safer to invest in a good vehicle or home wich always go up

Talk is cheap.

I’d wager nobody took greater risk on their home, max debt and family than me.

Now I’m saying the market has bottomed and I’m heavily in.

Crypto offers a limited window. I’m calling a 96k top next run. It isn’t easy at all, it’s rocket science.

[Hypertrophy]

CPI went up to 8.3% and rates rose 0.75%. Rates are now 3%-3.25%.

Nothing has yet broken. No credit collapse. No property crash. Bond market continues to increase rates.

Fed initial year end rate target is 3.9% so we have 1 more rate hike to go before year end. Their initial CPI target was 2% however this was revised to ballpark 4.5%-5%.

Equities have attempted another sell off and still cannot reach new lows.

Black swan scenario could be staring at us in the face. The black swan being we go up….. markets are so one sided they can’t sell off (at least so far this is what I see), meanwhile rates keep rising and the economy will end up breaking in Q4-Q1 period in which case QE stimmy is thrown in over the top of rates which causes another bullrun and we never get that massive crash people are dreaming of.

I had Q4 2022 always as a key period but I thought we’d have sold off deeper by now.

All my positions have been in profit this entire time. So much for an alt coin nuke.

You are so special Mayday. Like the Bhanky of finance, lol

[testiFy]

The only possible way you are still in profit with altcoins is if you bought in 2020.

Middle class currently getting rekt

[Coach is Back!]

Two years in office and ZERO market gains not to mention building permit as well as housing are taking huge hits. The poor and middle classes are getting killed. Socialism/Marxism has never worked in the history of the world but people still believe in it…quite a few on here

[testiFy]

Two years in office and ZERO market gains not to mention building permit as well as housing are taking huge hits. The poor and middle classes are getting killed. Socialism/Marxism has never worked in the history of the world but people still believe in it…quite a few on here

The only people who actually believe in Socialism are ones who have never lived in a socialist society.
It's ignorance at it's finest/grass is greener mentality

[ProudVirgin69]

Talk is cheap.

I’d wager nobody took greater risk on their home, max debt and family than me.

Now I’m saying the market has bottomed and I’m heavily in.

Crypto offers a limited window. I’m calling a 96k top next run. It isn’t easy at all, it’s rocket science.

$96k for bitcoin?  Lol based on what

[ProudVirgin69]

Two years in office and ZERO market gains not to mention building permit as well as housing are taking huge hits. The poor and middle classes are getting killed. Socialism/Marxism has never worked in the history of the world but people still believe in it…quite a few on here

what socialist policies has Biden enacted?  I must have missed them

Trump did plenty of socialist stuff during the pandemic, btw.. Mortgage forbearance, stimulus checks, free covid care, enhanced unemployment, pausing student loan payments, free lunches for school kids, PPP program

All that stuff was pretty popular and worked well to support US citizens during such a trying time.  Personally, i think it's good when the government provides things to its constituents

[Flexacon]

$96k for bitcoin?  Lol based on what

There are some who believe that a "soft landing" won't be possible so instead the stockmarkets will melt up to a new all time high, just so it can dump harder and take us lower than we are now. As a risk on asset bitcoin would pump with it to a new all time high too.

[ProudVirgin69]

There are some who believe that a "soft landing" won't be possible so instead the stockmarkets will melt up to a new all time high, just so it can dump harder and take us lower than we are now. As a risk on asset bitcoin would pump with it to a new all time high too.

I agree w your first statement but Bitcoin reaching a new all time high is far from guaranteed.  There's some inherent value to it as a means to transfer/launder currency but beyond that its just another speculative financial instrument.

The heights it reached last time were fueled by hype and widespread buy-in by the public.  Now it's lost its novelty and those who've lost money on it see it as a scam.  I just don't see what would drive it back up to the levels we saw before--let alone $96k.

[ProudVirgin69]

Apropos of nothing