Getbig Bodybuilding, Figure and Fitness Forums

Getbig Main Boards => General Topics => Topic started by: FitnessFrenzy on June 25, 2016, 05:07:16 AM



Title: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 25, 2016, 05:07:16 AM
worth watching:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LR3AN6BS4U


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 25, 2016, 07:42:50 AM
Typical stock broker/investment advisor platitudes when the market takes a dive.  They say the same shit every time.

Make sure you include the fees, expenses and commissions these fuckers charge... some can be very expensive and over time they end up eating a large chunk of your money.

Bubbles are all over the place.  The market will only get worse as time goes by.  This Brexit thing is just the beginning.

Free advice... the best investment right now is GOLD and SILVER.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 25, 2016, 08:15:19 AM
Typical stock broker/investment advisor platitudes when the market takes a dive.  They say the same shit every time.

Make sure you include the fees, expenses and commissions these fuckers charge... some can be very expensive and over time they end up eating a large chunk of your money.

Bubbles are all over the place.  The market will only get worse as time goes by.  This Brexit thing is just the beginning.

Free advice... the best investment right now is GOLD and SILVER.

can you be a little more specific?

I am not sure what exactly you criticize in the video   :)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: sync pulse on June 25, 2016, 10:32:25 AM
Free advice... the best investment right now is GOLD and SILVER.

This is the biggest platitude of them all.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 25, 2016, 10:41:11 AM
This is the biggest platitude of them all.

yeah, no gold or silver for me.


(https://s33.postimg.org/o69v74fqn/13227366_10209231833052211_7492759774733048612_o.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on June 25, 2016, 10:46:36 AM
for the retail stuff I think Lance Roberts is good. he has a free newsletter. i used to listen to a few podcasts like financial sense and king world news as well. gold seek radio is pretty good as is the keiser report on RT/ youtube


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Coffeed on June 25, 2016, 01:01:18 PM
The Dukes are trying to corner the market!


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 25, 2016, 06:11:01 PM
This is the biggest platitude of them all.

G&S are very undervalued right now.  The stock market and real estate are extremely overvalued right now.  It's all about timing.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 25, 2016, 06:21:32 PM
yeah, no gold or silver for me.

(https://s33.postimg.org/o69v74fqn/13227366_10209231833052211_7492759774733048612_o.jpg)

LOL - I'd like to see the bogus data points used to plot this chart.  Gold was around $35oz in 1972.  It's now $1320... a 3800% gain.  No gold or silver for you!  


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: HTexan on June 25, 2016, 06:50:36 PM
LOL - I'd like to see the bogus data points used to plot this chart.  Gold was around $35oz in 1972.  It's now $1320... a 3800% gain.  No gold or silver for you!  
Hell, thanks to tech, even copper is tearing up the charts.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: NelsonMuntz on June 25, 2016, 07:09:35 PM
quote author=Coffeed link=topic=612594.msg8517022#msg8517022 date=1466888478]
The Dukes are trying to corner the market!
[/quote]

here they are with a young, slim Vince Goodrum

(http://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/trading-places.jpg)



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdY7GNqgOOw


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: sync pulse on June 25, 2016, 07:55:54 PM
yeah, no gold or silver for me.

The only way you can make significant profit from precious metals it through leveraged futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade..

If your position is aimed in the right direction, you gain money with the rush of Niagara Falls...

If you are wrong...that futures contract will squeeze your nuts between it's thumb and forefinger...

Gold was around $35oz in 1972.  It's now $1320... a 3800% gain.  
1972 eh?...Are you going to cryogenically immerse yourself and wait for this glacier?...or use a time machine?

If you want to investigate futures...I would suggest grain..."grain does what silver does"


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Hypo on June 25, 2016, 07:59:18 PM
quote author=Coffeed link=topic=612594.msg8517022#msg8517022 date=1466888478]
The Dukes are trying to corner the market!


here they are with a young, slim Vince Goodrum

(http://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/trading-places.jpg)



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdY7GNqgOOw

Lol!


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mitch on June 25, 2016, 10:25:14 PM
how many of you are ready to "drop 15 Andrew Jackson" to make the investment of your life  :D


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: el numero uno on June 25, 2016, 11:00:18 PM
LOL - I'd like to see the bogus data points used to plot this chart.  Gold was around $35oz in 1972.  It's now $1320... a 3800% gain.  No gold or silver for you!  

Do the math, that would average roughly an annual interest of 8.5%. It's hardly going to make you a millionaire. ::)

3800% gain... in 44 years. :D


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: gib on June 26, 2016, 12:52:33 AM
Gold is an absolute moronic investment.

Google why Buffet does not buy gold ...


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on June 26, 2016, 01:04:19 AM
Gold is an absolute moronic investment.

Google why Buffet does not buy gold ...

Google Fiat currency, Austrian business cycle and minsky moment


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 26, 2016, 01:27:54 AM
G&S are very undervalued right now.  The stock market and real estate are extremely overvalued right now.  It's all about timing.

There have been warnings that the real estate market in Scandinavia is overvalued. Here you can see it compared to the nordic stock market:


(https://s33.postimg.org/e0ujbf9yn/vsaktier_1.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 26, 2016, 03:15:53 AM
Do the math, that would average roughly an annual interest of 8.5%. It's hardly going to make you a millionaire. ::)

3800% gain... in 44 years. :D

My point is that gold is a stable store of wealth.  It's going much higher in the near future.  Those green rectangles in your wallet (or electrons in a bank account) are constantly being devalued and they buy less goods and services every year.  ALL fiat currencies eventually fail.

Like I said above, timing is important.  NOW is the time for gold and silver.  Stocks and RE are a hyper bubble.  It'll be some fun when those bubbles pop.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: RJ DRIVER on June 26, 2016, 03:31:00 AM
If you want the best advice out there I'd seek out Vince goodrum. He's sooo smart. He saved $500 on a washing mashing. His other great investments include bee pollen and a double wide trailer.  I believe he might even have fake credentials as a financial advisor.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: gib on June 26, 2016, 03:40:01 AM
My point is that gold is a stable store of wealth.  It's going much higher in the near future.  Those green rectangles in your wallet (or electrons in a bank account) are constantly being devalued and they buy less goods and services every year.  ALL fiat currencies eventually fail.

Like I said above, timing is important.  NOW is the time for gold and silver.  Stocks and RE are a hyper bubble.  It'll be some fun when those bubbles pop.

Gold has no value. It can't be valued. It produces no yield and yield is really the only way to reliably value an asset. In fact gold has a negative yield as it costs money to store it, guard it, transport it etc.

Trust me of its the end of the world a shiney nugget will be worth nothing compared to say an apple, a banana or some fresh drinking water ...


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 26, 2016, 03:42:49 AM
Gold has no value. It can't be valued. It produces no yield and yield is really the only way to reliably value an asset. In fact gold has a negative yield as it costs money to store it, guard it, transport it etc.

Trust me of its the end of the world a shiney nugget will be worth nothing compared to say an apple, a banana or some fresh drinking water ...

Some very ignorant and absurd statements here.



Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 26, 2016, 07:22:04 AM
My point is that gold is a stable store of wealth.  It's going much higher in the near future.  Those green rectangles in your wallet (or electrons in a bank account) are constantly being devalued and they buy less goods and services every year.  ALL fiat currencies eventually fail.

Like I said above, timing is important.  NOW is the time for gold and silver.  Stocks and RE are a hyper bubble.  It'll be some fun when those bubbles pop.

not really. If you bought gold in 2012 you would still have lost money today:


(https://s31.postimg.org/xm2icdzsr/ww2.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Rambone on June 26, 2016, 09:27:05 AM
Gold is great if you can time the "flight to quality" aspect of it. Since nobody can time the market, it's easy to say buy gold AFTER this large move. If you want to go ahead and invest in gold when it's flirting with its 2 year highs, go ahead, but as a buy and hold strategy for the stereotypical inactive investor, you're better off throwing your money in the SPY or some low cost index funds and adding to it over time if you're not watching the monitors everyday like a getbigger in Dubai, India. 


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 26, 2016, 09:30:41 AM
not really. If you bought gold in 2012 you would still have lost money today:

(https://s31.postimg.org/xm2icdzsr/ww2.jpg)

And if you bought in 1999 when gold price was $250 ish?  Timing is important.  Derivatives market is going to implode and a majority of the banks out there today will not exist in a few years.  It will make what happened with Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns look like a picnic.

Over long periods of time as wealth storage and inflation protection, physical gold (and silver)wins.  No counterparty risk like with paper assets either.  It's a no brainer.

When the S&P gets obliterated again down around the 600 level, (hopefully we all won't be fucked back to the stone age), that will be the time to start buying stocks.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 26, 2016, 09:32:57 AM
Gold is great if you can time the "flight to quality" aspect of it. Since nobody can time the market, it's easy to say buy gold AFTER this large move. If you want to go ahead and invest in gold when it's flirting with its 2 year highs, go ahead, but as a buy and hold strategy for the stereotypical inactive investor, you're better off throwing your money in the SPY or some low cost index funds and adding to it over time if you're not watching the monitors everyday like a getbigger in Dubai, India. 

Large move?  You ain't seen nothing yet Mr Rambone.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: el numero uno on June 26, 2016, 09:41:54 AM
And if you bought in 1999 when gold price was $250 ish?  Timing is important.  Derivatives market is going to implode and a majority of the banks out there today will not exist in a few years.  It will make what happened with Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns look like a picnic.

Over long periods of time as wealth storage and inflation protection, physical gold (and silver)wins.  No counterparty risk like with paper assets either.  It's a no brainer.

When the S&P gets obliterated again down around the 600 level, (hopefully we all won't be fucked back to the stone age), that will be the time to start buying stocks.

Ha! If you could time the market, you'd be a millionaire overnight. 


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 26, 2016, 09:47:03 AM
Ha! If you could time the market, you'd be a millionaire overnight. 

I've gotten close with timing, but I'm always a tad early.  I've done fairly well because I hardly ever use margin.  A couple trader friends of mine blew up their trading accounts... some lost millions.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Grape Ape on June 26, 2016, 09:51:46 AM
LOL - I'd like to see the bogus data points used to plot this chart.  Gold was around $35oz in 1972.  It's now $1320... a 3800% gain.  No gold or silver for you!  

Chart is measuring from 1802 and using Real rate instead of nominal rate, so it's adjusted for inflation an other stuff.

The spike you mention from the 70s appears to be there too.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on June 26, 2016, 10:06:36 AM
Chart is measuring from 1802 and using Real rate instead of nominal rate, so it's adjusted for inflation an other stuff.

The spike you mention from the 70s appears to be there too.

Still bogus.  Jeremy Segal is a banker/government/Fed reserve shill.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Grape Ape on June 26, 2016, 10:44:53 AM
Still bogus.  Jeremy Segal is a banker/government/Fed reserve shill.

I hear you.  Tough to trust anything.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 26, 2016, 10:52:35 AM
And if you bought in 1999 when gold price was $250 ish?  Timing is important.  Derivatives market is going to implode and a majority of the banks out there today will not exist in a few years.  It will make what happened with Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns look like a picnic.

Over long periods of time as wealth storage and inflation protection, physical gold (and silver)wins.  No counterparty risk like with paper assets either.  It's a no brainer.

When the S&P gets obliterated again down around the 600 level, (hopefully we all won't be fucked back to the stone age), that will be the time to start buying stocks.

I don't disagree with you, but do you have any sources for your opinions about the derivatives market?

I know nothing about derivatives


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Wiggs on June 26, 2016, 12:05:59 PM
Gold and silver, I've been saying it for years....PHYSICAL. Not some bullshit on a piece of paper that will mean nothing when, not if this house of cards falls.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 12:35:07 PM
Interesting reading and watching.
A little advise from years of experience - derivatives are basically a suckers game - she's an incredibly rigged market in most cases and you are basically betting against the house (the house that has all the resources to destroy you). I traded the broader indexes during 1999-2001 and made some serious dosh and also lost some very large amounts. Watched friends of mine lose everything literally in a few hours (I'm talking amounts of 2 million +). Having said that it was an incredible ride - I learned alot about myself during those times - almost bankrupted twice. But you live and learn. If you are still reasonably young and have the potential to ride things out and can afford to lose big when the time comes then I reckon you should give it a go. But you need to be able to learn from it - I mean really learn from it. I found I got screwed - not just because of my own actions or inactions but equally because my own brokers often would manipulate and screw me in behind the facade of working for me. Also I learned, often the hard way, that when you are not entirely certain of what you are doing (ie: your belief in your own talents wains) you open yourself to incredible vulnerability to the whims of others (believe me it is subtle and incredibly costly). I have many stories about the one that got away but on balance looking back I would change anything because it taught me alot - stuff that I could never learn from reading books etc or not actually physically being in the market and totally exposed. I learned, deep down I am too emotional to be a successful short term trader but if I hadn't learned that I wouldn't be where I am today and would probably have lost a lot more over the years.
Would I trade the index futures again - most probably - but I'm not crazy enough to go full on - I'd trade options on the futures and limit my exposure to margin that way. Have a wife and house and family now so its not just all about me if I was to fail. But I tell you what - this market is starting to look ripe for interesting turn - mmmm....taking me back all those years...we shall see.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 12:52:09 PM
Forgot what I was intentding to say - two places I would recommend absorbing as much information from now especially if I was much younger - read and understand Warren Buffet's investing philosophy and also someone like Marc Faber. Put the bulk of your money into long term sensible risk adverse holds based on the former and seek out true contrarian plays based on the latter - where you can limit yourself to only small plays with minimal risk because the amount you may lose is only a fraction of your portfolio but if you get it right the rewards can be stratospheric especially if your enter the market at a point where you genuinely believe it is near the tipping point (which isn't that hard to determine if you learn the lessons of Dow theory etc). The broader markets are much easier to guage than individual stocks or packets of stocks.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 01:03:16 PM
Oh and one more thing - if yospend time working up a reasonable and tested investing strategy - ie: one that your have paper traded over a significant time frame (at least historically) DON'T deviate from it. Trust it and stick with it no matter whatever anyone else says. The biggest mistake you will make is breaking your own godamn rules. If your rules worked 90% of the time when you paper traded they will work 90% of thereabouts when you are actually in the market. But if you compromise, even slightly because you get jittery and seek advice of others you will almost invariably lose out. The reason I say this is because I would estimate that I would have traded some 3000-4000 times over my life and I would not be lying to say that all my winning trades were only when I followed my own advice to the letter - my losing trades were all the result of either my own rules not working (usually as the result of false timing signals - getting in too early or too late or out too early or too late or averaging down or some such other stupidity) but the bulk of bad trades were because I'd either actively seek advise of someone else or passively engage in unsolicited ramblings of others (who were probably doing worse than me but because I was emotional I let myself be swayed).
Ie: trust in no one but yourself.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Wiggs on June 26, 2016, 01:09:17 PM
Why is it still wise to invest in the market when it's due for a huge correction?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Tapeworm on June 26, 2016, 01:15:07 PM
A casino.  Talk to any gambler.  There's always a 'system' and everyone you talk to is 'up'.  Overall, you understand.  ::)



Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 26, 2016, 01:27:23 PM
Oh and one more thing - if yospend time working up a reasonable and tested investing strategy - ie: one that your have paper traded over a significant time frame (at least historically) DON'T deviate from it. Trust it and stick with it no matter whatever anyone else says. The biggest mistake you will make is breaking your own godamn rules. If your rules worked 90% of the time when you paper traded they will work 90% of thereabouts when you are actually in the market. But if you compromise, even slightly because you get jittery and seek advice of others you will almost invariably lose out. The reason I say this is because I would estimate that I would have traded some 3000-4000 times over my life and I would not be lying to say that all my winning trades were only when I followed my own advice to the letter - my losing trades were all the result of either my own rules not working (usually as the result of false timing signals - getting in too early or too late or out too early or too late or averaging down or some such other stupidity) but the bulk of bad trades were because I'd either actively seek advise of someone else or passively engage in unsolicited ramblings of others (who were probably doing worse than me but because I was emotional I let myself be swayed).
Ie: trust in no one but yourself.

what is your investment strategy?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 01:49:20 PM
Basically a handpicked selection of fairly basic technical indicators. Over the years I modified these as I found that they would become less reliable in range bound markets. What I found was that chart trading, in my experience, relies heavily on using the right sets and applications of indicators in the right market conditions. Took me a long time to get this - was always looking for the silver bullet - a set of indicators that would work in all conditions. Because of that 'holy grail' apporach I got burned severely - often repeatedly making the same mistake again and again but not really understanding why. My strategy, if I can call it that, really was about doing what I found emotionally counterintuitive and sticking to it. Took me along time to make sense of things - I'm not a smart guy by any stretch and its been years since I have traded actively but looking to may be get back in so just starting to refamiliarise myself.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 01:53:49 PM
Hence my advice for what it is worth - work things out yourself and then once you are satisfied you have got the best possible scenario (thanks Mr Piana) apply it and only trust in what you have done - nothing else.
There are heaps of technical indicators that I have found now, in the last few days that looks mightily impressive but I have absolutely no idea how they work. My basic rule of thumb is if I can't understand it then I don't look at it - too much like witchcraft  ;D


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 26, 2016, 01:56:52 PM
Basically a handpicked selection of fairly basic technical indicators. Over the years I modified these as I found that they would become less reliable in range bound markets. What I found was that chart trading, in my experience, relies heavily on using the right sets and applications of indicators in the right market conditions. Took me a long time to get this - was always looking for the silver bullet - a set of indicators that would work in all conditions. Because of that 'holy grail' apporach I got burned severely - often repeatedly making the same mistake again and again but not really understanding why. My strategy, if I can call it that, really was about doing what I found emotionally counterintuitive and sticking to it. Took me along time to make sense of things - I'm not a smart guy by any stretch and its been years since I have traded actively but looking to may be get back in so just starting to refamiliarise myself.

so you are a stock picker and not a macro investor?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 02:04:26 PM
As I said before I would only ever 'invest' in shorting a market if I was 100% I was close to a tipping point. I have done it twice - the first time in 1999 and then in 2000. However whilst doing well in 2000 (I think it was 2000) I didn't take into account Greenspans intervention when I think he slashed interest rates and I watched a significant amount of paper profit vanish in seconds. But as said the bulk of my trading was at that time was put options of futures contracts. I did actively trade some futures but didn't fair too well in the end.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 02:11:30 PM
Wouldn't pidgeon hole myself either way - but back in the day I would guess I would be a stock picker and only ever shorting the broader market. I lie - now that I think about it I did use to short a number of big name Australian stocks  but found that the market was severely open to manipulation  - not the liquidity that I guess you have in the US.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: badlad on June 26, 2016, 02:17:16 PM
PS:have never traded physical gold or silver - but did in extension by trading explorer stock etc. Liked the idea of it but don't really understand that market. Had a 'friend' who did - was the nearest thing to a real Gordon Gecko i have ever personally witnessed. All he ever talked about for three years - gold and silver - amazing chartist - used to come in with these A3 hand drawn things and convinced alot of peeps to invest on his analysis. But in the end alot of people lost a lot of money because of that.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 27, 2016, 02:33:09 PM
let us see how high VIX will go after these brexit problems:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=VX


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 29, 2016, 12:58:45 PM
from reddit about owning houses that you rent out:


So keep in mind I'm in a very different market to the USA (Australia)

My preferred properties after trial & elimination are 1 storey town houses or stand alone houses. Reasons for this:

    Don't have to fuck around with body corporate meetings

    Don't have to worry about whether or not the building has a big enough sink fund & is collecting enough to cover stuff like elevators, power sub stations, pools, etc.

I don't do any renos, you can make good money doing that but I'm a "slow & steady" kinda guy, so I aim to buy 3-4br family homes within 2km of a good school and 10-15km of a major metropolitan area or CBD.

Rental yield should be around 5.5-6% of purchase price pre-expenses. e.g a $400,000 place should rent for $24,000 pa / $2,000 month / $500 week

My rough long term yearly expenses work out to be:

    Property Manager, $1,200 - $1,400 pa
    Maintenance, $200 - $1,500 pa. At a minimum I get stuff like air conditioners, gutters & smoke alarms checked yearly. preventative maintenance is a great way to avoid long term big $$ repairs & its all deductible anyway..
    insurance, $1,400 pa (I have both property & landlords insurance.. e.g. if a tenant fucks the place, that's great news for me as i still get paid rent & the insurance company pays to renovate my property, woohoo! 99% of the investor sob stories are idiots who don't have insurance.)

So as a typical example: Purchase price: $400,000. I'm not going to do the break down of year 1 acquisition fees (stamp duty + conveyancing/legal) Lets say my total costs were $15,000 to buy. as per below, 20% cash down = $80,000 so we're talking about a $95,000 purchase price.

Loan 80% lvr (20% deposit) = $320,00 loan. I borrow always "interest only" & then put the cash into an offset account against the loan (I can explain how offset accounts work, but basically it means I can pay down the loan into a flexible account that means I don't need the bank's permission to pull all the $$ out and into another prop). Currently I pay around 4.2% as I have $1m+ in loans. so on this prop, would be $13,440 a year

Profit: (rental income) $26kpa. I work on a 50 week per year occupancy, my actual long term average is more like 51.something, so I'd calculate this as $25,000

Expenses: $3,600 pa in management, fees, insurance, maint, etc. + home loan cost $13,440 = 17,040

Depreciation of fittings and fixtures - not sure if this is something you can do in the states, but in Aus, stuff like dishwashers, carpet, paint, etc all have a reasonable lifespan (carpet is 7 years.. nobody replaces carpet every 7 years..) & you can depreciate them on your tax. for a $400k place, I'd expect $3,500 a year.

So the result is: $7,960 Profit pre-tax. Without boring you with the lengthy math on my tax, the end result is I lose about another $1,450 of that in tax... Year 1 would actually be better than that because my $15k costs are 100% deductible, so as 32.5% tax bracket, I get $4,875 of that back, but moving on..

= $6,510 cash in my pocket.

Now you're probably thinking "johnau, you threw down $95,000 to get $6,510 after tax profit, that's shit. your after expenses & taxes rental yield is 1.6%"

Here's the thing though...

    Rental values go up. I've never worked out what my long term growth is here, but I have places I've paid $200k for a decade plus ago that started out at $200 week ($800 month) now pulling in $500+ a week ($2k+ a month).

    Capital gains. My long term average for capital gains is 2.5% per annum. Which sounds shit.. until you do the math and realise that to get the same result as 2.5% on $400k, over 10 years, that original $95k would have to have returned roughly 7.9%pa.. Also ignoring that I've made about $65,100 in after tax income over that 10 year period too.

What I'm now doing with my portfolio is basically the Warren Buffett "never sell" approach & I chip in bugger all of my own money anymore. The first few properties are hard. Finding say, $380,000 to buy 4 places ($1.6m portfolio) is no easy feat, but then you sit on them for 10 years & now you've got a $2,053,000 portfolio... At this stage you could do a re-draw on your loans, buy another 4 places & have a $3.6m portfolio giving you $52,000+ a year in convenient fortnightly installments & appreciating at around $91,000 a year, ensuring that you'll have a nice nest egg to leave the kids.. The alternative approach for people who hate dealing banks is to say.. Buy 10, sit on them for 15 years, sell all 10 for say around $4.8m after expenses ($350k ish in tax & expenses.. haven't done the exact math), pay back the bank their $3.2m, with the remaining $1.6m, buy 4x new $400k places with cash, collect $100kpa in rent, minus management, maint & insurance = around $85,000 pa forever & rent should track inflation.. Personally I wouldn't do that as you end up paying a bunch of unnecessary tax, but I see loans as numbers on a spreadsheet vs for a lot of people, having $0 in bank debt has a solid "sleep at night factor" to lower their stress.

Getting the initial deposits is a bitch. Once you've got 4-5 places, you should find that the rental cash flow + ability to do a refinance every 5-10 years funds all your future acquisitions.. Put it this way, if you've got 0 props, saving $95k = pain in the ass.

if you've got 4 props.. every 3 years you should've made around $125k in capital gains + $78,000 in after tax "cash in your bank" rental profits... that funds purchase 5 & 6 + gives you $13k to take the kids on a family holiday... 3 years later you've put in another $0 & you've got $196k in capital gains + $156k in rent = that funds buying property 7, 8 & 9 + buy yourself a $50k BMW + take the family on a $17,000 holiday.. The vast majority of people never manage to perform the feat of saving up their $95,000 3-4x in a row to start the snowball... That's where 99% of people fail at prop investing, they either can't or wont ever manage that... but keep in mind it gets easier every time once you've got more bringing in $$.

Then it just becomes a decision about what your magic number is (how many props you want/how much $$ you want in retirement + how much time you've got..) then sit back and wait.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Tapeworm on June 29, 2016, 01:30:43 PM
a $400,000 place should rent for $24,000 pa / $2,000 month / $500 week

It doesn't & his 400k POS house is now worth 340 but he'll take 300 since it's better than he'll get at a bank auction.  Everybody knows it, so next month he'll get some sub-300 offers.  The arse is just barely not falling out of the Australian market due to 1) Chinese investment and 2) banks that don't want to take their medicine.

Suits me.  I love a bargain.  Let the river of blood in the street flow.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 29, 2016, 01:37:16 PM
It doesn't & his 400k POS house is now worth 340 but he'll take 300 since it's better than he'll get at a bank auction.  Everybody knows it, so next month he'll get some sub-300 offers.  The arse is just barely not falling out of the Australian market due to 1) Chinese investment and 2) banks that don't want to take their medicine.

Suits me.  I love a bargain.  Let the river of blood in the street flow.

do you own property that you rent out?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on June 29, 2016, 01:38:02 PM
from reddit about owning houses that you rent out:


So keep in mind I'm in a very different market to the USA (Australia)

My preferred properties after trial & elimination are 1 storey town houses or stand alone houses. Reasons for this:

    Don't have to fuck around with body corporate meetings

    Don't have to worry about whether or not the building has a big enough sink fund & is collecting enough to cover stuff like elevators, power sub stations, pools, etc.

I don't do any renos, you can make good money doing that but I'm a "slow & steady" kinda guy, so I aim to buy 3-4br family homes within 2km of a good school and 10-15km of a major metropolitan area or CBD.

Rental yield should be around 5.5-6% of purchase price pre-expenses. e.g a $400,000 place should rent for $24,000 pa / $2,000 month / $500 week

My rough long term yearly expenses work out to be:

    Property Manager, $1,200 - $1,400 pa
    Maintenance, $200 - $1,500 pa. At a minimum I get stuff like air conditioners, gutters & smoke alarms checked yearly. preventative maintenance is a great way to avoid long term big $$ repairs & its all deductible anyway..
    insurance, $1,400 pa (I have both property & landlords insurance.. e.g. if a tenant fucks the place, that's great news for me as i still get paid rent & the insurance company pays to renovate my property, woohoo! 99% of the investor sob stories are idiots who don't have insurance.)

So as a typical example: Purchase price: $400,000. I'm not going to do the break down of year 1 acquisition fees (stamp duty + conveyancing/legal) Lets say my total costs were $15,000 to buy. as per below, 20% cash down = $80,000 so we're talking about a $95,000 purchase price.

Loan 80% lvr (20% deposit) = $320,00 loan. I borrow always "interest only" & then put the cash into an offset account against the loan (I can explain how offset accounts work, but basically it means I can pay down the loan into a flexible account that means I don't need the bank's permission to pull all the $$ out and into another prop). Currently I pay around 4.2% as I have $1m+ in loans. so on this prop, would be $13,440 a year

Profit: (rental income) $26kpa. I work on a 50 week per year occupancy, my actual long term average is more like 51.something, so I'd calculate this as $25,000

Expenses: $3,600 pa in management, fees, insurance, maint, etc. + home loan cost $13,440 = 17,040

Depreciation of fittings and fixtures - not sure if this is something you can do in the states, but in Aus, stuff like dishwashers, carpet, paint, etc all have a reasonable lifespan (carpet is 7 years.. nobody replaces carpet every 7 years..) & you can depreciate them on your tax. for a $400k place, I'd expect $3,500 a year.

So the result is: $7,960 Profit pre-tax. Without boring you with the lengthy math on my tax, the end result is I lose about another $1,450 of that in tax... Year 1 would actually be better than that because my $15k costs are 100% deductible, so as 32.5% tax bracket, I get $4,875 of that back, but moving on..

= $6,510 cash in my pocket.

Now you're probably thinking "johnau, you threw down $95,000 to get $6,510 after tax profit, that's shit. your after expenses & taxes rental yield is 1.6%"

Here's the thing though...

    Rental values go up. I've never worked out what my long term growth is here, but I have places I've paid $200k for a decade plus ago that started out at $200 week ($800 month) now pulling in $500+ a week ($2k+ a month).

    Capital gains. My long term average for capital gains is 2.5% per annum. Which sounds shit.. until you do the math and realise that to get the same result as 2.5% on $400k, over 10 years, that original $95k would have to have returned roughly 7.9%pa.. Also ignoring that I've made about $65,100 in after tax income over that 10 year period too.

What I'm now doing with my portfolio is basically the Warren Buffett "never sell" approach & I chip in bugger all of my own money anymore. The first few properties are hard. Finding say, $380,000 to buy 4 places ($1.6m portfolio) is no easy feat, but then you sit on them for 10 years & now you've got a $2,053,000 portfolio... At this stage you could do a re-draw on your loans, buy another 4 places & have a $3.6m portfolio giving you $52,000+ a year in convenient fortnightly installments & appreciating at around $91,000 a year, ensuring that you'll have a nice nest egg to leave the kids.. The alternative approach for people who hate dealing banks is to say.. Buy 10, sit on them for 15 years, sell all 10 for say around $4.8m after expenses ($350k ish in tax & expenses.. haven't done the exact math), pay back the bank their $3.2m, with the remaining $1.6m, buy 4x new $400k places with cash, collect $100kpa in rent, minus management, maint & insurance = around $85,000 pa forever & rent should track inflation.. Personally I wouldn't do that as you end up paying a bunch of unnecessary tax, but I see loans as numbers on a spreadsheet vs for a lot of people, having $0 in bank debt has a solid "sleep at night factor" to lower their stress.

Getting the initial deposits is a bitch. Once you've got 4-5 places, you should find that the rental cash flow + ability to do a refinance every 5-10 years funds all your future acquisitions.. Put it this way, if you've got 0 props, saving $95k = pain in the ass.

if you've got 4 props.. every 3 years you should've made around $125k in capital gains + $78,000 in after tax "cash in your bank" rental profits... that funds purchase 5 & 6 + gives you $13k to take the kids on a family holiday... 3 years later you've put in another $0 & you've got $196k in capital gains + $156k in rent = that funds buying property 7, 8 & 9 + buy yourself a $50k BMW + take the family on a $17,000 holiday.. The vast majority of people never manage to perform the feat of saving up their $95,000 3-4x in a row to start the snowball... That's where 99% of people fail at prop investing, they either can't or wont ever manage that... but keep in mind it gets easier every time once you've got more bringing in $$.

Then it just becomes a decision about what your magic number is (how many props you want/how much $$ you want in retirement + how much time you've got..) then sit back and wait.


so you bought any $100 properties in detroit?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Tapeworm on June 29, 2016, 02:23:45 PM
do you own property that you rent out?

No, thankfully.  I'm not a 'negative gearing' guy.  Negative gearing is the term given to losing money every month, on purpose, so that you can write off the loss as a tax deduction.  I never really understood how to write off the loss since if you're not making any money then tax liability would already be zero.  I guess they mean it's deduced against assessable income from something that actually earns money, like a job.  Or tallying up all the lost money and deducting against the later capital gain.  Kind of like tying a stone to a balloon so that you can own the stone.

Anywho, this is the logic and how pretty much every rental property works here.  The guarantee being that it's ok to lose money since you're going to cash in big when you finally sell it since real estate only ever goes up.

If I rent a place out it'll be one that I build myself for a $50k construction cost on a block I buy outright for $50k.  I don't subscribe to the debt now/profit later investment model and I don't have the stomach for it.  When I buy something I like it to be from a bleeding, drowning man who needs to be rid of it.  It was a good strategy with my machinery so I'll do the same with property.  

Not exactly a complicated smoke & mirrors approach that conjures money out of thin air like some people claim to be able to do, but I'd rather be effective than sophisticated.  Imo, how money gets generated from an investment should be immediately clear and obvious.  So much so that it's boring.  The last thing investing should be is exciting.  For some reason, people enjoy getting embroiled in wildly complex financial schemes and seem to think that the more complicated something is, the greater the can't-miss profit is going to be.  They love talking about 'how it works.'  If how it works needs explanation then it's probably not somewhere you should put your hard earned.  But wtf do I know.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mayday on June 29, 2016, 07:49:03 PM
Gold and silver, I've been saying it for years....PHYSICAL. Not some bullshit on a piece of paper that will mean nothing when, not if this house of cards falls.

And physical will do what?

You do realise they are allowed.to create virtual gold/silver in the warehouses yeah?

That's how they solved the threat of collapse years ago when I was.doing my.silver trades.

Gold was close to 1800 and I bought silver at 26 and sold at 44 just before it fell.

Hasn't been.back since and each time the theory says it should spike instead they get beat down because the allowed virtual metals in warehouses.

They have spent the last 7 years rigging markets and closing loopholes. Unfortunately It's not the same game anymore. Physical is not required because delivery cannot exceed supply, they just switch to virtual delivery. They already tried to collapse the comex and came fucking close.

 That's what average Joe doesn't get, the banks/Got all play together meanwhile average Joe.is clinging to rules in the previous game under the delusion that somehow they are still in play.

I thought the same as you years ago and had physical silver so it's not like I haven't been down that road. I merely adapted to the game is all.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on June 29, 2016, 07:54:30 PM
Physical Gold, in your possession, will be there for you when the markets, and the supply of "virtual" gold collapse. Gold isn't so much an investment, as it is insurance against a market, worst case scenario.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: HTexan on June 29, 2016, 09:37:52 PM
Physical Gold, in your possession, will be there for you when the markets, and the supply of "virtual" gold collapse. Gold isn't so much an investment, as it is insurance against a market, worst case scenario.
This. Prepers stock pile the shit in their basements and worry about the worst.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mayday on June 29, 2016, 11:31:59 PM
I discussed that with someone last weekend when peppers was on TV.

I get the argument, problem is if the monetary system.collapses the short term result is total chaos and everything devalues for average Joe. You can't use gold on the street because it has no value, can be faked, can't be weighed, it's useless.

WWII people swapped jewellery, diamonds, Gold for food and water. But diamonds are worth 2000/ct.... Nope, they are worth what the owner of the food says it's worth. This has been done before and history repeats. The rich with all the jewels and gold were instantly poor because in civilian life it's useless yet somehow people believe it's different now.....  

The biggest trick is a monetary system is based on belief.... I believe the digits in my account are money. I believe he plastic notes in my wallet is money. Everybody else around me believes it. Go and grab your Gold bar and ask the same question. If everybody aggrees (which they won't), go one further an swap $100 gold for $100 cash and.see.who takes up the offer.... NO one will. Walk into a bank, give them 100/gold and exchange for a 100note, won't happen. Today its merely a store of.value, nothing more. See my point?

Money is belief. Livestock was once money. Grain was once money. Gold was once money. Coins and paper notes are money today.

Gold has value before a collapse, not after for average Joe . So the trick is to get out and buy whatever it is you need before be it land, food etc.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 30, 2016, 12:24:28 AM
I think it is funny how mainstream media and investment advisors tell people not to invest know becauseo of brexit, and then you have people like George Soros who are making millions by:

- buying gold

- shorting Deutsche Bank


I guess the big players always have a trick up their sleeve  :)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 30, 2016, 07:27:37 AM
does anyone know what the current spread is for investment grade corporate bonds?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mayday on June 30, 2016, 12:24:40 PM
I think it is funny how mainstream media and investment advisors tell people not to invest know becauseo of brexit, and then you have people like George Soros who are making millions by:

- buying gold

- shorting Deutsche Bank


I guess the big players always have a trick up their sleeve  :)

The big players still dumped their gold/silver before price corrections. They still buy and sell, none of this BS buy at any price I see people doing lol.

Then you have to ask yourself if you should adopt the same strategy as billionaires who don't tell you the whole truth. None of them buy at any price and hold which is the mantra average Joe repeats. They all Buy/sell to make profit today.

We had the same gold/silver mantra here..... Metals fell and property doubled. People got proper fucked following the whole dump property and buy metals gig.  fact is you play with whatever is going to make money today.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Diesel618 on June 30, 2016, 02:12:32 PM
Where is Vince Goodrum CSM, MFT, HHP? I am curious to hear his take on this discussion. He obviously has vast knowledge on making one's money work for oneself.

What say you Vince Goodrum CSM, MFT, HHP?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 01, 2016, 10:14:59 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt7hTCeoXUM


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 03, 2016, 06:43:29 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPat_VkUaqY


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on July 03, 2016, 07:02:14 AM
The big players still dumped their gold/silver before price corrections. They still buy and sell, none of this BS buy at any price I see people doing lol.

Then you have to ask yourself if you should adopt the same strategy as billionaires who don't tell you the whole truth. None of them buy at any price and hold which is the mantra average Joe repeats. They all Buy/sell to make profit today.

We had the same gold/silver mantra here..... Metals fell and property doubled. People got proper fucked following the whole dump property and buy metals gig.  fact is you play with whatever is going to make money today.

Billionaires hold gold too... don't kid yourself. 

Again, it's all about timing.  Look at what precious metals have done over the past week.  Silver is up 40% just this year.  You either have it, or you don't. 

The day is coming when the US dollar and other fiat currencies will be worthless and precious metals will not be.  Gold and silver are still relatively cheap.  Prepare accordingly.



Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on July 03, 2016, 07:09:56 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPat_VkUaqY

These advisors are basically traders who failed.  They now live off fees, expenses and commissions of ignorant mongoloids who do not understand that the stock market is really a den of thieves in expensive suits. 

Make sure to read the small print of your 401k, IRA or any fund you "invest" in... the fees and expenses are often outrageous. 


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 07, 2016, 02:10:00 PM
brexit effect on a computer controlled forex trading platform. Brutal:


(https://s32.postimg.org/dil3eg8gj/13502915_10153542850970780_7102178482957440685_o.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 16, 2016, 02:05:08 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_N_rWjYnP8


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 17, 2016, 05:38:30 AM
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/i6fNaTD_czco/v2/-1x-1.png)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on October 23, 2016, 04:29:43 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otvQqP4nOxA


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on October 23, 2016, 05:56:45 AM
if Trump wins, the USD tanks. Has to be negative for bond yields and equity valuations.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on October 23, 2016, 09:40:41 AM
if Trump wins, the USD tanks. Has to be negative for bond yields and equity valuations.

agreed.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Deadpool on October 23, 2016, 09:45:47 AM
wow, three pages in and still on topic.  Oh, wait, isn't this a bodybuilding forum?   ::)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on October 23, 2016, 10:10:56 AM
brexit effect on a computer controlled forex trading platform. Brutal:


(https://s32.postimg.org/dil3eg8gj/13502915_10153542850970780_7102178482957440685_o.jpg)

That's a very smooth equity curve, apart from the not so happy end, prob a scalp trader.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on October 23, 2016, 10:12:59 AM
That's a very smooth equity curve, apart from the not so happy end, prob a scalp trader.

automated forex trading is very dangerous. The british pound flash crash happened after I posted that graph you quoted. A lot of people lost money from that incident.
I don't trade forex. It is simply not for me.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on October 23, 2016, 10:14:50 AM
These advisors are basically traders who failed.  They now live off fees, expenses and commissions of ignorant mongoloids who do not understand that the stock market is really a den of thieves in expensive suits. 

Make sure to read the small print of your 401k, IRA or any fund you "invest" in... the fees and expenses are often outrageous. 

only about 20% of active fund managers manage to beat the indexes in the long run. If you want to read about a brilliant active fund manager, then I suggest reading the book "The Big Short" by author Michael Lewis.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: stuntmovie on October 23, 2016, 10:17:20 AM
Adding this info without having had the time to read much of this input but the following may possibly be of some help ...

bankrate.com


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on October 23, 2016, 10:33:59 AM
automated forex trading is very dangerous. The british pound flash crash happened after I posted that graph you quoted. A lot of people lost money from that incident.
I don't trade forex. It is simply not for me.

Algo trading can be very risky, but it all depends on things like diversification and position sizing. Some forex brokers already warned their clients on beforehand about the possible Brexit, so it would be wise to turn off a system for at least a couple of hours.

Most forex clients lose their money in the mid- or long-term, simply because either their timing or their money management is poor, leverage can be a bitch...


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on October 23, 2016, 10:56:58 AM
brexit effect on a computer controlled forex trading platform. Brutal:
(https://s32.postimg.org/dil3eg8gj/13502915_10153542850970780_7102178482957440685_o.jpg)

And if you wait several days/weeks/months, TPTB/algos seem to push it back up.  One day it will crash again, but this time it won't recover.  Traders who play it right (i.e. shorts/put options) will probably not be able to cash in on them.

It's all just digital electrons on a computer screen.  They don't really exist.  Same goes for the cash in 401k's IRA's, pensions, bank accounts, etc.  After the crash only tangible things will hold value, not the digital blips in some trading/bank account.  

We are living in very precipitous times.  Prepare accordingly.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on October 23, 2016, 11:25:21 AM
And if you wait several days/weeks/months, TPTB/algos seem to push it back up.  One day it will crash again, but this time it won't recover.  Traders who play it right (i.e. shorts/put options) will probably not be able to cash in on them.

It's all just digital electrons on a computer screen.  They don't really exist.  Same goes for the cash in 401k's IRA's, pensions, bank accounts, etc.  After the crash only tangible things will hold value, not the digital blips in some trading/bank account.  

We are living in very precipitous times.  Prepare accordingly.

I don't believe in "the crash". Do you seriously believe we can go through a bigger stock market crash than 2008? What would cause it?

All these things would only bring the market down 20 - 30 percent in my view:
- Chinese crash (e.g. from housing bubble or from bad outstanding loans)
- oil crash (another one)
- Donald Trump becomes president
- global recession


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 15, 2016, 08:12:29 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_-q2o1wBs4


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on November 15, 2016, 09:14:55 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyPPaiZEYO4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itxbyXO67XY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRHCYu4tafw


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 15, 2016, 09:19:15 AM
I don't believe in "the crash". Do you seriously believe we can go through a bigger stock market crash than 2008? What would cause it?

All these things would only bring the market down 20 - 30 percent in my view:
- Chinese crash (e.g. from housing bubble or from bad outstanding loans)
- oil crash (another one)
- Donald Trump becomes president
- global recession

Just a few off the top of my head...

- The US is $20 TRILLION in debt and it's going up (Odumbo added $10 of those trillion over the last 8 years).
- The real unemployment rate is close to 25%, not 5%.
- 90% of the jobs created over the last couple years have been part time service jobs that pay $7.25-$10/hr.
- There are 48-50 million people using EBT cards.
- 60% of people in the US have less than $1000 in their bank account.
- Only 33% have more than $1000 in their 401k.
- The US dollar is losing value rapidly (i.e. inflation).  It buys less and less goods/services every year.
- Food companies are continually shrinking their packaging sizes, but charging the same or more for their products ~aka~ "Shrinkflation"
- The median income in the US is about $52,000... that is less than it was 15 years ago.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop there.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: R.A.M. on November 15, 2016, 09:23:20 AM
(https://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/23253084.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: JackScribber on November 15, 2016, 09:56:53 AM
Just a few off the top of my head...

- The US is $20 TRILLION in debt and it's going up (Odumbo added $10 of those trillion over the last 8 years).
- The real unemployment rate is close to 25%, not 5%.
- 90% of the jobs created over the last couple years have been part time service jobs that pay $7.25-$10/hr.
- There are 48-50 million people using EBT cards.
- 60% of people in the US have less than $1000 in their bank account.
- Only 33% have more than $1000 in their 401k.
- The US dollar is losing value rapidly (i.e. inflation).  It buys less and less goods/services every year.
- Food companies are continually shrinking their packaging sizes, but charging the same or more for their products ~aka~ "Shrinkflation"
- The median income in the US is about $52,000... that is less than it was 15 years ago.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop there.

60% of people have LESS than a grand liquid?  :o

Just, how?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 15, 2016, 11:36:44 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyPPaiZEYO4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itxbyXO67XY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRHCYu4tafw

Good stuff. Have you read the book called "Flash Boys"?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on November 15, 2016, 12:04:14 PM
Good stuff. Have you read the book called "Flash Boys"?

No, but I believe* I've heard some parts of it during the following documentary (posted before on the Documentary thread)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQJNeQDDHA

BTW, over here the guy from that first video -Rishi Narang, who's one of the founders of a HFT firm- explains what's reality and what's fiction about the content of this book, https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-054-rishi-narang/ (I haven't heard it myself yet)

The nanosecond world of HFT is very fascinating, but the given information isn't that useful for a private investor since the whole HFT infrastructure alone is already a multi-million Dollar investment.

* Saw this doc more than a year ago.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 15, 2016, 12:41:53 PM
No, but I believe* I've heard some parts of it during the following documentary (posted before on the Documentary thread)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQJNeQDDHA

BTW, over here the guy from that first video -Rishi Narang, who's one of the founders of a HFT firm- explains what's reality and what's fiction about the content of this book, https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-054-rishi-narang/ (I haven't heard it myself yet)

The nanosecond world of HFT is very fascinating, but the given information isn't that useful for a private investor since the whole HFT infrastructure alone is already multi-million Dollar investment.

* Saw this doc more than a year ago.

here is a link to the book:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on November 15, 2016, 12:58:03 PM
here is a link to the book:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys

Quote
Flash Boys starts out describing the construction of Spread Networks' secretive new 827-mile cable running as straight as possible, through mountains and under rivers, from Chicago to New Jersey that would reduce the journey time for data from 17 to 13 milliseconds. This $300 million project was designed to connect the financial markets of Chicago and New York City where one could think front running might happen with a few millisecond advantage.

Fascinating... and the docu above also covers crazy latency tweaks like these.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Rambone on November 15, 2016, 02:53:42 PM
My point is that gold is a stable store of wealth.  It's going much higher in the near future.  Those green rectangles in your wallet (or electrons in a bank account) are constantly being devalued and they buy less goods and services every year.  ALL fiat currencies eventually fail.

Like I said above, timing is important.  NOW is the time for gold and silver.  Stocks and RE are a hyper bubble.  It'll be some fun when those bubbles pop.

Gold is great if you can time the "flight to quality" aspect of it. Since nobody can time the market, it's easy to say buy gold AFTER this large move. If you want to go ahead and invest in gold when it's flirting with its 2 year highs, go ahead, but as a buy and hold strategy for the stereotypical inactive investor, you're better off throwing your money in the SPY or some low cost index funds and adding to it over time if you're not watching the monitors everyday like a getbigger in Dubai, India.  

Large move?  You ain't seen nothing yet Mr Rambone.

I hope no getbiggers invested in gold since that post. They'd currently be down 7.3%  :D

(http://i67.tinypic.com/50h83c.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 15, 2016, 04:31:12 PM
I hope no getbiggers invested in gold since that post. They'd currently be down 7.3%  :D

(http://i67.tinypic.com/50h83c.jpg)

You are cherry picking the timing.  This is a very long term investment, not short term trading.

I started buying gold when it was $300oz... silver when it was $5oz.  I sold 50% of my silver holdings in 2011 when it hit $50.  Since 2015 I've purchased back several thousand ounces.  Silver is dirt cheap right now... very undervalued.

Precious metals are only real store of value and wealth... a 5000 year track record that cannot be denied.  The sheeple will only come to realize this when the USD and global financial system implodes.  It's inevitable.  The stock market is the biggest bubble in history, but it would not surprise me if it continues to rise over the year, or several years.  I hope it does, it gives me more time to accumulate real wealth.  

When the shit finally does hit the fan water, food, ammo are going to be all the rage... much more than PMs.  

Prepare accordingly.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Rambone on November 15, 2016, 04:40:44 PM
You are cherry picking the timing.  This is a very long term investment, not short term trading.

I started buying gold when it was $300oz... silver when it was $5oz.  I sold 50% of my silver holdings in 2011 when it hit $50.  Since 2015 I've purchased back several thousand ounces.  Silver is dirt cheap right now... very undervalued.

Precious metals are only real store of value and wealth... a 5000 year track record that cannot be denied.  The sheeple will only come to realize this when the USD and global financial system implodes.  It's inevitable.  

When the shit finally does hit the fan water, food, ammo are going to be all the rage... much more than PMs.  

Prepare accordingly.

Nah we're going to be okay. You're sounding like one of those fear mongering gold commercials on the radio. Gold isn't looking too promising in the future considering Trump hates Yellen and the Fed. With every rate increase, gold will look less attractive. I'm not trying to cherry pick anything. Just giving a simple example of not being able to time the market. If I told you or anybody Trump was going to win the election, you would've bought tons of gold and shorted the equites till your hands bled. Anybody would have.  Nobody can predict this market and you can't predict some catastrophe fabricated in your mind. Fear is always overstated. That's all I'm saying.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 15, 2016, 04:52:03 PM
Nah we're going to be okay. You're sounding like one of those fear mongering gold commercials on the radio. Gold isn't looking too promising in the future considering Trump hates Yellen and the Fed. With every rate increase, gold will look less attractive. I'm not trying to cherry pick anything. Just giving a simple example of not being able to time the market. If I told you or anybody Trump was going to win the election, you would've bought tons of gold and shorted the equites till your hands bled. Nobody can predict this market and you can't predict some imaginary catastrophe. That's all I'm saying.

You sound exactly like the way people sounded in 1999 and 2006/7.  I was warning people about the RE bubble in 2006. I lived in San Diego then and 95% of the people I mentioned this to laughed at me, even though I laid out exactly what was going on.

I am not fear mongering.  Like I said previously, these irrational up moves could go for a long time.  However, a stock market crash is long overdue.  This time, the Fed will not be able to stop it.  Sadly, people hardly ever notice when they are in a bubble.

There is nothing to fear if one is prepared... I fear nothing.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: dr.chimps on November 15, 2016, 05:12:47 PM
You sound exactly like the way people sounded in 1999 and 2006/7.  I was warning people about the RE bubble in 2006. I lived in San Diego then and 95% of the people I mentioned this to laughed at me, even though I laid out exactly what was going on.

I am not fear mongering.  Like I said previously, these irrational up moves could go for a long time.  However, a stock market crash is long overdue.  This time, the Fed will not be able to stop it.  Sadly, people hardly ever notice when they are in a bubble.

There is nothing to fear if one is prepared... I fear nothing.
Ok. Warren Buffett. Spread the wealth. Let's have the secret. Please, tell us.   


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 15, 2016, 05:20:39 PM
Ok. Warren Buffett. Spread the wealth. Let's have the secret. Please, tell us.  

Since 2007/8, Warren has become a shill for the banksters, Wall Street, federal reserve and the corrupt US government... not me.  Don't shoot the messenger monkey boy.

I just told you everything you need to know.  Read the thread.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: dr.chimps on November 15, 2016, 05:38:05 PM
Since 2007/8, Warren has become a shill for the banksters, Wall Street, federal reserve and the corrupt US government... not me.  Don't shoot the messenger monkey boy.

I just told you everything you need to know.  Read the thread.


So, no, secret. What a surprise. Hey, we at GetBig like money - let us know how to make it? Gonna talk tough, or are you gonna tell  us how to do it? Yes/No?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 15, 2016, 05:56:11 PM

So, no, secret. What a surprise. Hey, we at GetBig like money - let us know how to make it? Gonna talk tough, or are you gonna tell  us how to do it? Yes/No?

I told you what to do.  Did you fail reading comprehension class?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: cephissus on November 15, 2016, 07:10:51 PM
No, thankfully.  I'm not a 'negative gearing' guy.  Negative gearing is the term given to losing money every month, on purpose, so that you can write off the loss as a tax deduction.  I never really understood how to write off the loss since if you're not making any money then tax liability would already be zero.  I guess they mean it's deduced against assessable income from something that actually earns money, like a job.  Or tallying up all the lost money and deducting against the later capital gain.  Kind of like tying a stone to a balloon so that you can own the stone.

Anywho, this is the logic and how pretty much every rental property works here.  The guarantee being that it's ok to lose money since you're going to cash in big when you finally sell it since real estate only ever goes up.

If I rent a place out it'll be one that I build myself for a $50k construction cost on a block I buy outright for $50k.  I don't subscribe to the debt now/profit later investment model and I don't have the stomach for it.  When I buy something I like it to be from a bleeding, drowning man who needs to be rid of it.  It was a good strategy with my machinery so I'll do the same with property.  

Not exactly a complicated smoke & mirrors approach that conjures money out of thin air like some people claim to be able to do, but I'd rather be effective than sophisticated.  Imo, how money gets generated from an investment should be immediately clear and obvious.  So much so that it's boring.  The last thing investing should be is exciting.  For some reason, people enjoy getting embroiled in wildly complex financial schemes and seem to think that the more complicated something is, the greater the can't-miss profit is going to be.  They love talking about 'how it works.'  If how it works needs explanation then it's probably not somewhere you should put your hard earned.  But wtf do I know.

Didn't know my dad posts on getbig :o


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: jr on November 15, 2016, 07:34:07 PM
You are cherry picking the timing.  This is a very long term investment, not short term trading.

I started buying gold when it was $300oz... silver when it was $5oz.  I sold 50% of my silver holdings in 2011 when it hit $50.  Since 2015 I've purchased back several thousand ounces.  Silver is dirt cheap right now... very undervalued.

Precious metals are only real store of value and wealth... a 5000 year track record that cannot be denied.  The sheeple will only come to realize this when the USD and global financial system implodes.  It's inevitable.  The stock market is the biggest bubble in history, but it would not surprise me if it continues to rise over the year, or several years.  I hope it does, it gives me more time to accumulate real wealth.  

When the shit finally does hit the fan water, food, ammo are going to be all the rage... much more than PMs.  

Prepare accordingly.

Venezuela is having a economic/currency crisis and its stock market is outperforming gold massively.

(https://s13.postimg.org/jhnfte81j/goldven.jpg)
(https://s15.postimg.org/ybmy1tszv/venstock.jpg)

Gold is up 61% in 5 years in venezuelan bolivar.

Stockmarket has gone from 115 to 25600, a 2200% gain.

The bolivar has lost 2.3 times it's value against the USD in that time.

So an inflation adjusted 1000% gain in stocks vs 61% gain in gold.




Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 15, 2016, 08:10:19 PM
Venezuela is having a economic/currency crisis and its stock market is outperforming gold massively.

(https://s13.postimg.org/jhnfte81j/goldven.jpg)
(https://s15.postimg.org/ybmy1tszv/venstock.jpg)

Gold is up 61% in 5 years in venezuelan bolivar.

Stockmarket has gone from 115 to 25600, a 2200% gain.

The bolivar has lost 2.3 times it's value against the USD in that time.

So an inflation adjusted 1000% gain in stocks vs 61% gain in gold.

Yes, their stock market is up in nominal terms, but their currency (the Bolivar) is worthless -lol.  Same thing happened in Zimbabwe... they were printing $100 Trillion (yes, $100 TRILLION) dollar notes in 2007... I own a few of them. 

Morale of the story:  Only gold and silver hold their value, not paper currency or paper investments.   Fiat currencies ALWAYS fail... they lose value over time and eventually become worthless.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 15, 2016, 08:23:09 PM
Fiat currencies ALWAYS fail... they lose value over time and eventually become worthless.

When the Federal Reserve took over the US currency, in 1913, the price of gold was $20 per ounce. Today gold closed at $1233.90 per ounce. This is monetary inflation, not to be confused with price inflation, that the Fed uses to obfuscate, what is happening, as they erode the value of the US Dollar.

Gold, and Silver, aren't really investments though. In reality they are insurance, for when everything else turns to shit.



Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: jr on November 15, 2016, 08:52:41 PM
Yes, their stock market is up in nominal terms, but their currency (the Bolivar) is worthless -lol.  Same thing happened in Zimbabwe... they were printing $100 Trillion (yes, $100 TRILLION) dollar notes in 2007... I own a few of them.  

Morale of the story:  Only gold and silver hold their value, not paper currency or paper investments.   Fiat currencies ALWAYS fail... they lose value over time and eventually become worthless.

Gold went from $20 in 1913 to $1233 today, a 61 times capital gain.
Dow Jones index went from about 86 in 1913 to 18900 today, a 220 times capital gain, if you reinvested dividends, the return is 17,770 times!!!


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Rambone on November 16, 2016, 01:49:16 AM
You sound exactly like the way people sounded in 1999 and 2006/7.  I was warning people about the RE bubble in 2006. I lived in San Diego then and 95% of the people I mentioned this to laughed at me, even though I laid out exactly what was going on.

I am not fear mongering.  Like I said previously, these irrational up moves could go for a long time.  However, a stock market crash is long overdue.  This time, the Fed will not be able to stop it.  Sadly, people hardly ever notice when they are in a bubble.

There is nothing to fear if one is prepared... I fear nothing.

Other than my IRA, I'm actually not long equities in my trading account. I'm also not living beyond my means. have a nice car that's paid off, own a house currently worth 125K more than I paid for it in 2013, and have no credit card debt. Im nothing like someone in their early 30s from 2007.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 16, 2016, 03:40:56 AM
if you look at a historical gold chart, it has some weird price moves sometimes. I don't own gold. Maybe I should?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 16, 2016, 04:13:37 AM
Gold went from $20 in 1913 to $1233 today, a 61 times capital gain.
Dow Jones index went from about 86 in 1913 to 18900 today, a 220 times capital gain, if you reinvested dividends, the return is 17,770 times!!!

You're only looking at it in nominal terms.  The USD has been severely devalued since 1913.  In 1913 the dollar was worth a dollar (100 cents), now it's worth about 2 cents... get it?

In 1913 the USD was backed by gold, today it is backed by nothing.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Tapeworm on November 16, 2016, 05:20:51 AM
Didn't know my dad posts on getbig :o

Go to your room.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Marty Champions on November 16, 2016, 05:46:40 AM
i read 1st half of post so far hes on the white track
from reddit about owning houses that you rent out:


So keep in mind I'm in a very different market to the USA (Australia)

My preferred properties after trial & elimination are 1 storey town houses or stand alone houses. Reasons for this:

    Don't have to fuck around with body corporate meetings

    Don't have to worry about whether or not the building has a big enough sink fund & is collecting enough to cover stuff like elevators, power sub stations, pools, etc.

I don't do any renos, you can make good money doing that but I'm a "slow & steady" kinda guy, so I aim to buy 3-4br family homes within 2km of a good school and 10-15km of a major metropolitan area or CBD.

Rental yield should be around 5.5-6% of purchase price pre-expenses. e.g a $400,000 place should rent for $24,000 pa / $2,000 month / $500 week

My rough long term yearly expenses work out to be:

    Property Manager, $1,200 - $1,400 pa
    Maintenance, $200 - $1,500 pa. At a minimum I get stuff like air conditioners, gutters & smoke alarms checked yearly. preventative maintenance is a great way to avoid long term big $$ repairs & its all deductible anyway..
    insurance, $1,400 pa (I have both property & landlords insurance.. e.g. if a tenant fucks the place, that's great news for me as i still get paid rent & the insurance company pays to renovate my property, woohoo! 99% of the investor sob stories are idiots who don't have insurance.)

So as a typical example: Purchase price: $400,000. I'm not going to do the break down of year 1 acquisition fees (stamp duty + conveyancing/legal) Lets say my total costs were $15,000 to buy. as per below, 20% cash down = $80,000 so we're talking about a $95,000 purchase price.

Loan 80% lvr (20% deposit) = $320,00 loan. I borrow always "interest only" & then put the cash into an offset account against the loan (I can explain how offset accounts work, but basically it means I can pay down the loan into a flexible account that means I don't need the bank's permission to pull all the $$ out and into another prop). Currently I pay around 4.2% as I have $1m+ in loans. so on this prop, would be $13,440 a year

Profit: (rental income) $26kpa. I work on a 50 week per year occupancy, my actual long term average is more like 51.something, so I'd calculate this as $25,000

Expenses: $3,600 pa in management, fees, insurance, maint, etc. + home loan cost $13,440 = 17,040

Depreciation of fittings and fixtures - not sure if this is something you can do in the states, but in Aus, stuff like dishwashers, carpet, paint, etc all have a reasonable lifespan (carpet is 7 years.. nobody replaces carpet every 7 years..) & you can depreciate them on your tax. for a $400k place, I'd expect $3,500 a year.

So the result is: $7,960 Profit pre-tax. Without boring you with the lengthy math on my tax, the end result is I lose about another $1,450 of that in tax... Year 1 would actually be better than that because my $15k costs are 100% deductible, so as 32.5% tax bracket, I get $4,875 of that back, but moving on..

= $6,510 cash in my pocket.

Now you're probably thinking "johnau, you threw down $95,000 to get $6,510 after tax profit, that's shit. your after expenses & taxes rental yield is 1.6%"

Here's the thing though...

    Rental values go up. I've never worked out what my long term growth is here, but I have places I've paid $200k for a decade plus ago that started out at $200 week ($800 month) now pulling in $500+ a week ($2k+ a month).

    Capital gains. My long term average for capital gains is 2.5% per annum. Which sounds shit.. until you do the math and realise that to get the same result as 2.5% on $400k, over 10 years, that original $95k would have to have returned roughly 7.9%pa.. Also ignoring that I've made about $65,100 in after tax income over that 10 year period too.

What I'm now doing with my portfolio is basically the Warren Buffett "never sell" approach & I chip in bugger all of my own money anymore. The first few properties are hard. Finding say, $380,000 to buy 4 places ($1.6m portfolio) is no easy feat, but then you sit on them for 10 years & now you've got a $2,053,000 portfolio... At this stage you could do a re-draw on your loans, buy another 4 places & have a $3.6m portfolio giving you $52,000+ a year in convenient fortnightly installments & appreciating at around $91,000 a year, ensuring that you'll have a nice nest egg to leave the kids.. The alternative approach for people who hate dealing banks is to say.. Buy 10, sit on them for 15 years, sell all 10 for say around $4.8m after expenses ($350k ish in tax & expenses.. haven't done the exact math), pay back the bank their $3.2m, with the remaining $1.6m, buy 4x new $400k places with cash, collect $100kpa in rent, minus management, maint & insurance = around $85,000 pa forever & rent should track inflation.. Personally I wouldn't do that as you end up paying a bunch of unnecessary tax, but I see loans as numbers on a spreadsheet vs for a lot of people, having $0 in bank debt has a solid "sleep at night factor" to lower their stress.

Getting the initial deposits is a bitch. Once you've got 4-5 places, you should find that the rental cash flow + ability to do a refinance every 5-10 years funds all your future acquisitions.. Put it this way, if you've got 0 props, saving $95k = pain in the ass.

if you've got 4 props.. every 3 years you should've made around $125k in capital gains + $78,000 in after tax "cash in your bank" rental profits... that funds purchase 5 & 6 + gives you $13k to take the kids on a family holiday... 3 years later you've put in another $0 & you've got $196k in capital gains + $156k in rent = that funds buying property 7, 8 & 9 + buy yourself a $50k BMW + take the family on a $17,000 holiday.. The vast majority of people never manage to perform the feat of saving up their $95,000 3-4x in a row to start the snowball... That's where 99% of people fail at prop investing, they either can't or wont ever manage that... but keep in mind it gets easier every time once you've got more bringing in $$.

Then it just becomes a decision about what your magic number is (how many props you want/how much $$ you want in retirement + how much time you've got..) then sit back and wait.



Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 21, 2016, 08:46:14 AM
I own the USA small cap index, and it is up 16% since I bought into it!  8)



Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on November 21, 2016, 12:25:06 PM
I own the USA small cap index, and it is up 16% since I bought into it!  8)



Well done, this index looks like a good long term investment. I assume it's a futures contract?

(http://www.the-marketplace.global/media/31514/us-growthofdollar.png)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 21, 2016, 12:32:22 PM
Well done, this index looks like a good long term investment. I assume it's a futures contract?

(http://www.the-marketplace.global/media/31514/us-growthofdollar.png)

to be honest, I have just been lucky. I thought they would tank when Trump won. I just own the ordinary stock index.. so no futures.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Hypo on November 22, 2016, 12:37:55 AM
i read 1st half of post so far hes on the white track

He can't do that now. No more interest-free loans.

Australian property is overheating and dare I say it, bubbling as bad as the US.

He's obviously hoping property prices don't fall, which was exactly the reasoning behind the sub-prime burst.

Apartment prices in capital cities are already dropping hard.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: gib on November 22, 2016, 06:42:57 AM
He can't do that now. No more interest-free loans.

Australian property is overheating and dare I say it, bubbling as bad as the US.

He's obviously hoping property prices don't fall, which was exactly the reasoning behind the sub-prime burst.

Apartment prices in capital cities are already dropping hard.

Sydney and Melbourne in Australia are quite expensive for sure. The really big money next decade in Australia will be in Gold Coast Queensland property. At a high level the amount of growth and investment and infrastructure there planned is phenomenal. I would say land and property there will easily rise 15%pa for each year on average over the next decade. So very decent compounded gains to be made there if you buy now.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 22, 2016, 10:21:50 AM
im surprised equities up since election. everything else has been sold. outlook for corp margins under trump is poor.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-19/difference-between-gaap-and-non-gaap-q3-earnings-dow-jones-was-25




Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 10:39:24 AM
im surprised equities up since election. everything else has been sold. outlook for corp margins under trump is poor.

Trump's tax cuts, for investors and corporations, will spur the economy, and create more profit. Cutting out government regulations, will help too.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 22, 2016, 10:59:45 AM
Trump's tax cuts, for investors and corporations, will spur the economy, and create more profit. Cutting out government regulations, will help too.


it wont make that much difference and rising interest rates would more than offset that. the more important factor is wages growing faster than gdp which will shrink margins significantly. trump is just transferring wealth to rich people with corporate tax cuts.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 11:20:25 AM
Laffer Curve works every time.

Trump will create more jobs, with his tax cuts, and regulation cuts.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 22, 2016, 11:23:19 AM
Laffer Curve works every time.

Trump will create more jobs, with his tax cuts, and regulation cuts.

the laffer curve only works from a high tax/ regulation starting point.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 11:29:22 AM
the laffer curve only works from a high tax/ regulation starting point.

That's where we are starting from, a high tax/ regulation starting point, that Trump will annihilate.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 22, 2016, 11:29:41 AM
Laffer Curve works every time.

Trump will create more jobs, with his tax cuts, and regulation cuts.

lol.. those tax cuts mainly benefit the rich.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 11:31:52 AM
lol.. those tax cuts mainly benefit the rich.

Only because the welfare bum parasites don't work, nor pay taxes.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 22, 2016, 11:33:08 AM
That's where we are starting from, a high tax/ regulation starting point, that Trump will annihilate.

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/11/06/trump%20hole%201_0.JPG)

according to this ^ each USD cut in taxes wont create a USD in gdp...

investment requires a profit opportunity, whether corp tax rates go up or down a few percent hardly makes a difference. the outlook is structurally low growth as baby boomers retire who will then impose themselves on state spending such as obamacare.

USA is probably the least regulated large developed market.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 22, 2016, 11:34:08 AM
Only because the welfare bum parasites don't work, nor pay taxes.

you are arguing for 'corporate welfare' where taxes are cut for the rich, ie the owners of capital. you dumbass.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 11:37:12 AM
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/11/06/trump%20hole%201_0.JPG)

according to this ^ each USD cut in taxes wont create a USD in gdp...

investment requires a profit opportunity, whether corp tax rates go up or down a few percent hardly makes a difference. the outlook is structurally low growth as baby boomers retire who will then impose themselves on state spending such as obamacare.

USA is probably the least regulated large developed market.

The chart is horseshit. Socialist nonsense. The USA has the highest corporate taxes on Earth now. That will change under President Trump. And, Obamacare is history! Won't cost the taxpayers anything any more.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 11:38:31 AM
you are arguing for 'corporate welfare' where taxes are cut for the rich, ie the owners of capital. you dumbass.

You are arguing for robbery. Taxation is theft! You Dumbass!


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 22, 2016, 11:41:21 AM
The chart is horseshit. Socialist nonsense. The USA has the highest corporate taxes on Earth now. That will change under President Trump. And, Obamacare is history! Won't cost the taxpayers anything any more.

that is a CBO estimate chart. also trump already said he will not implement many campaign promises inc scrapping obamacare. you guys got rolled by trump who will work for the wealthiest americans.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 11:46:15 AM
that is a CBO estimate chart.

Yeah. As I said: "Socialist Horseshit!"

Trump will work for the benefit of the useful and productive people. Fuck the Parasites, Predators, and Pervert Hillary supporters.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: SaintAnger on November 22, 2016, 12:57:39 PM
I'm able to save about $10,000+ a month into my account after my living expenses, but I have a hell of a time not spending some of it, because I get bored and tempted to start new projects.  For the start of the new year, I'm going to "make money" by just saving all of it from here on out. 

Question is, is it best to just keep it in cash in the bank?  I don't know anything about the market, gold or whatever.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 22, 2016, 01:01:15 PM
I'm able to save about $10,000+ a month into my account after my living expenses

How many fake welfare account names do you have?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Hypo on November 22, 2016, 07:48:54 PM
Sydney and Melbourne in Australia are quite expensive for sure. The really big money next decade in Australia will be in Gold Coast Queensland property. At a high level the amount of growth and investment and infrastructure there planned is phenomenal. I would say land and property there will easily rise 15%pa for each year on average over the next decade. So very decent compounded gains to be made there if you buy now.

I haven't really looked into Goldy, but I can see where you are coming from. They'd be pumping cash for the Cth games hand over fist, too.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Rambone on November 23, 2016, 10:05:04 AM
Mr. Anabolic, I'd like to let you know that I just got long gold this morning during the large down move. Needed a core position for my IRA, so I went with GLD although I usually like to use futures in my other margin account. Also sold OTM calls against the position since vol is decent in there. It's rallied since I bought it and the calls have also come in a little bit surprisingly. I'm not a chart guy, but it doesn't look pretty. Just seems oversold in such a short period of time.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 23, 2016, 10:25:46 AM
Mr. Anabolic, I'd like to let you know that I just got long gold this morning during the large down move. Needed a core position for my IRA, so I went with GLD although I usually like to use futures in my other margin account. Also sold OTM calls against the position since vol is decent in there. It's rallied since I bought it and the calls have also come in a little bit surprisingly. I'm not a chart guy, but it doesn't look pretty. Just seems oversold in such a short period of time.

do you also own silver?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 23, 2016, 12:16:45 PM
Mr. Anabolic, I'd like to let you know that I just got long gold this morning during the large down move. Needed a core position for my IRA, so I went with GLD although I usually like to use futures in my other margin account. Also sold OTM calls against the position since vol is decent in there. It's rallied since I bought it and the calls have also come in a little bit surprisingly. I'm not a chart guy, but it doesn't look pretty. Just seems oversold in such a short period of time.

Nice.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if gold re-tested $1080 though.  Silver has short term support at $16 and longer term support at $15.  I do not do paper gold or silver, only physical.  I buy more every time the price drops significantly.  For me, precious metals are for l-o-n-g term wealth protection/storage, not for trading or quick profits.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 27, 2016, 03:24:37 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck_Xek1zKhM


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on November 27, 2016, 04:00:12 AM
Voodoo inVestor Vince has a cute bow tie


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 27, 2016, 04:13:26 AM
when there is a recession these P2P lending platforms will collapse.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 27, 2016, 04:16:51 AM
when there is a recession these P2P lending platforms will collapse.

I am not so sure. I guess we will have to see what happens.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Skorp1o on November 27, 2016, 04:30:25 AM
when there is a recession these P2P lending platforms will collapse.

Those who invest in them I.e. the individual lenders are not covered by the FSCS. Why would anyone take that risk when huge banks went under....small independent companies can go bust at any one point....mark my words there's a scandal waiting to happen here very soon.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on November 27, 2016, 04:32:31 AM
when there is a recession these P2P lending platforms will collapse.

I think it will take more than a recession for that to happen... has to be something big and/or unexpected.  I was actively trading during the crash of 2008/2009.  I made the largest amount of cash I've ever made (in 1 day) during those DOW 1000 point swing days.  At that time however, most trading platforms were having problems and much slower response times.  


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Skorp1o on November 27, 2016, 04:36:59 AM
I think it will take more than a recession for that to happen... has to be something big and/or unexpected.  I was actively trading during the crash of 2008/2009.  I made the largest amount of cash I've ever made (in 1 day) during those DOW 1000 point swing days.  At that time however, most trading platforms were having problems and much slower response times.  

P2P lending platforms are far more fragile, besides they're subject to less capital reserves than big banks too.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 27, 2016, 05:55:58 AM
P2P lending platforms are far more fragile, besides they're subject to less capital reserves than big banks too.

remember that the P2P lending companies have few employees and few expenses, so it would take a lot for them to go bust.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 27, 2016, 06:04:40 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wfEdi7h1FI


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Skorp1o on November 27, 2016, 06:27:10 AM
remember that the P2P lending companies have few employees and few expenses, so it would take a lot for them to go bust.

They run on tight margins...people start to default and they have no buffer to absorb the hits. It nearly happened to one of the big lenders the name escapes me. The smaller ones are more likely to crumble


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 27, 2016, 07:05:53 AM
They run on tight margins...people start to default and they have no buffer to absorb the hits. It nearly happened to one of the big lenders the name escapes me. The smaller ones are more likely to crumble

Lending Club?

We are all in this topic to get wiser, and I don't want to disagree with you if good arguments are brought to light that will make me change my mind.  :)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Skorp1o on November 27, 2016, 08:10:02 AM
Lending Club?

We are all in this topic to get wiser, and I don't want to disagree with you if good arguments are brought to light that will make me change my mind.  :)

I'm not too familiar with how things go in the US...but here if the bank goes bust money invested up to a certain limit is covered by a compensation scheme which effectively insurance. P2p in the U.K. Are not part of that scheme so if one goes bust I'm likely to never see my money back.

But, as with all investing it is up to the inidividual to invest based on their risk appetite...but one rule everyone should embrace regardless of investing strategy is to diversify. Whether you like gold, oil, equities...futures...etc always diversify


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Erik C on November 27, 2016, 09:09:06 AM
Any "caring" investment strategy, is a bad investment.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Skorp1o on November 27, 2016, 09:22:51 AM
if you look at a historical gold chart, it has some weird price moves sometimes. I don't own gold. Maybe I should?

For hedging? Yes, for money making, most people usually go elsewhere....if you look hystorically Gold is usually popular when markets are at their worst. But owning some gold is never a bad idea, it is after all the only true international currency.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 27, 2016, 10:07:52 AM
When you go on p2p sites it's mostly chip shops borrowing unsecured for 6%.

In comparison I have a trade finance deal at 11.5% but I told them to sweeten the deal, we had a senior ship loan recently at 10%, and a 2nd lien hotel loan with 3x overcollateralisation at 16%.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Skorp1o on November 27, 2016, 10:14:52 AM
When you go on p2p sites it's mostly chip shops borrowing unsecured for 6%.

In comparison I have a trade finance deal at 11.5% but I told them to sweeten the deal, we had a senior ship loan recently at 10%, and a 2nd lien hotel loan with 3x overcollateralisation at 16%.

As long as you know what you're doing. Are these secured loans?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: denarii on November 27, 2016, 10:48:55 AM
As long as you know what you're doing. Are these secured loans?

Yes only in p2p can you borrow against no assets. Although in micro finance it's similar but the terms of micro finance are very different.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: BigBen on December 07, 2016, 03:00:37 AM
why hasn't anyone suggested investing in property? it is one of the most reliable ways of investing and it will always pay itself. if you go for it the first thing to choose is the strategy. I’d say that Barcelona is probably the best option: it’s in the top 15 European property markets with really good prospects for investment, because being a popular destination it also has low interest rates and the demand exceeds the supply. another advantage is that apartments for sale in Barcelona (https://tranio.com/spain/catalonia/barcelona/apartments/) will definitely grow in price with the course of time. if you go for short term rentals you’ll get decent returns - about 5-7% yields. hiring a management company might be a bit of strain but it will help avoiding problems with finding new tenants and the expenses will be rewarded with higher occupancy rates anyway. i'd say that it's worth considering


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on December 09, 2016, 11:41:41 AM
crazy stock market gains these days!  8)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Mr Anabolic on December 16, 2016, 06:08:16 PM
crazy stock market gains these days!  8)

It's a bubble, but as bubbles gain momentum, people become euphoric/irrational.  Then, just when you think the market will never go down again, it pops.  We're almost there.  I predict the stock market bubble pops after Trump's inauguration.  My prediction that gold and silver would go down was correct.  I'm buying on the cheap with both hands.  Silver is very undervalued and an incredible deal at current prices ($15-16).


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: polychronopolous on December 17, 2016, 07:14:23 AM
It's a bubble, but as bubbles gain momentum, people become euphoric/irrational.  Then, just when you think the market will never go down again, it pops.  We're almost there.  I predict the stock market bubble pops after Trump's inauguration.  My prediction that gold and silver would go down was correct.  I'm buying on the cheap with both hands.  Silver is very undervalued and an incredible deal at current prices ($15-16).

What are your thoughts on bit coin?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on December 17, 2016, 08:49:44 AM
What are your thoughts on bit coin?


They're like casino fishes


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on December 26, 2016, 04:04:30 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5l9eXDfY6GI


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on January 01, 2017, 07:22:25 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxXaEdG5tFA


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: DroppingPlates on January 06, 2017, 07:53:01 AM
The World’s Biggest Hedge Fund is Embedding Its Founder’s Brain in an Algorithm

"...As described by Wall Street Journal, the system would take input, including peer reviews and employee testing, and use them to assign employees to specific tasks and provide them with detailed instructions for approaches and time management. It would also guide hiring, firing, and promotions. The system’s development is being overseen by David Ferrucci, who formerly led the creation of IBM’s Watson—despite earlier reports that Ferrucci would be working on economic modeling."

http://fortune.com/2016/12/24/bridgewater-ray-dalio-algorithm/


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FanBoi on January 29, 2017, 10:52:56 PM
Jack Bogle.  Follow his advice and you should be ok.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on February 18, 2017, 05:10:14 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnrUZHSOOOI


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: 2Thick on April 08, 2017, 01:11:46 PM
If you start maxing out an IRA at 25 starting with nothing in it, you can expect to have ~ $1.5 mil by the time you're 60 - if you assume the same sort of returns we've seen in the broad markets in the last 50+ years.

If you also max out a 401k, you can expect to have well over $6 mil by that time, assuming current contribution limits on IRAs and 401ks.

Diversify. Most of us are not smart enough to pick 8-10 stocks that will average 20, 30, 40% a year over the next several decades like Buffett and Nelson Peltz have been.

Be wary of anyone telling you to put everything into 1-2 stocks or commodities, or to buy and sell everything in the same day and go to 100% cash at the end of the day every day... or to be anywhere near 100% short or 100% in cash or whatever because they think the dollar and all stocks and all bonds are going to be worthless tomorrow. The world is probably not going to get that bad in my lifetime - and if it does, I suspect my own lifespan will be quite short, and I will probably take many other lives before I die.

I've been investing over 22 years. Am now semi-retired.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on April 09, 2017, 07:51:02 AM
good job, 2thick. I hope to be a successful long term investor too.  :)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on April 18, 2017, 06:26:52 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTU1G5NmmXI


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on May 12, 2017, 01:36:55 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6zhKDLVJzA


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: NaturalWonder83 on May 13, 2017, 04:51:13 PM
I've been using a site called betterment.com
I'm trying to learn about investing
Each week I put 25 dollars in my betterment account
I have 133 dollars invested and it says I have made $2.35. A 2.3% return.
And I have .2 cents in dividends

Should I keep doing this until I save 5k?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on May 19, 2017, 08:45:23 AM
I've been using a site called betterment.com
I'm trying to learn about investing
Each week I put 25 dollars in my betterment account
I have 133 dollars invested and it says I have made $2.35. A 2.3% return.
And I have .2 cents in dividends

Should I keep doing this until I save 5k?

the stock market is quite risky right now. Look into Lending Club instead.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Slapper on June 07, 2017, 03:14:44 PM
Wanna know how fucking good we have it here in the States? Friend of mine has been chewing my ear off with European stocks because he believes the Euro is about to go up again. One of his long positions was in a Spanish bank (POP/BPESF) that basically just got nationalized. Get this, after months of diffusing the fact that the bank had virtually no cash, the Spanish Minister of the Economy, the ECB as well as Spain Central Bank auditors; just dropped the hammer on everyone at 1AM last night, triggering a banking-system safety mechanism/protocol by which they effectively took control of the bank for about 2 minutes and then carried out a highest-bidder "auction," which ended in about 2 seconds with the sale of the bank to another Spanish bank (Banco Santander-SAN) for the symbolic price of €1. All in the name of banking-system preservation.  

My friend wakes up this morning only to find out that the 450,000 shares he bought for $ 1 back in November are worth $0.00. Bank was worth $ 35.00 back in 2007.

The whole episode is such a farce that the buying bank, which "supposedly" did everyone the favor of buying a decrepit bank with 40 billion in stale real estate assets (a business-bursting inheritance, or so they claimed,) and are about to hit SAN shareholders with a capital expansion, went up 2%.

  


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 08, 2017, 10:51:12 AM
Wanna know how fucking good we have it here in the States? Friend of mine has been chewing my ear off with European stocks because he believes the Euro is about to go up again. One of his long positions was in a Spanish bank (POP/BPESF) that basically just got nationalized. Get this, after months of diffusing the fact that the bank had virtually no cash, the Spanish Minister of the Economy, the ECB as well as Spain Central Bank auditors; just dropped the hammer on everyone at 1AM last night, triggering a banking-system safety mechanism/protocol by which they effectively took control of the bank for about 2 minutes and then carried out a highest-bidder "auction," which ended in about 2 seconds with the sale of the bank to another Spanish bank (Banco Santander-SAN) for the symbolic price of €1. All in the name of banking-system preservation.  

My friend wakes up this morning only to find out that the 450,000 shares he bought for $ 1 back in November are worth $0.00. Bank was worth $ 35.00 back in 2007.

The whole episode is such a farce that the buying bank, which "supposedly" did everyone the favor of buying a decrepit bank with 40 billion in stale real estate assets (a business-bursting inheritance, or so they claimed,) and are about to hit SAN shareholders with a capital expansion, went up 2%.

that sucks, but your friend should realize that this is a very real risk (losing everything) if you invest in individual stocks. I am, however, sad to hear about his situation.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Slapper on June 12, 2017, 05:15:36 PM
that sucks, but your friend should realize that this is a very real risk (losing everything) if you invest in individual stocks. I am, however, sad to hear about his situation.

I'm not. There's a reason a stock is worth $1, and it isn't because it's being shorted to smithereens, it's because the management sucks and they are hell bent in sinking the ship.

I did thank him because I learned a very valuable lesson.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Purge_WTF on June 14, 2017, 04:55:47 AM
 Any recommendations for short-term investments? I made a small fortune from Netflix, but that involved investing a small percentage of my paychecks in their stock for ten years.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 14, 2017, 12:45:37 PM
Any recommendations for short-term investments? I made a small fortune from Netflix, but that involved investing a small percentage of my paychecks in their stock for ten years.

Are you in America? If so, Lending Club!


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Purge_WTF on June 16, 2017, 08:02:22 AM
Are you in America? If so, Lending Club!

 Their stock appears to be down by quite a bit. Is it projected to go up?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on June 18, 2017, 12:54:45 PM
Their stock appears to be down by quite a bit. Is it projected to go up?

I am talking about investing with Lending Club (they sell loans to investors). I am not talking about buying the Lending Club stock.  :)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Purge_WTF on June 22, 2017, 08:13:23 AM
I am talking about investing with Lending Club (they sell loans to investors). I am not talking about buying the Lending Club stock.  :)

 Their website is rather vague. How do they invest your money? Is there a minimum amount required?


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: HTexan on June 23, 2017, 07:02:02 AM
Their website is rather vague. How do they invest your money? Is there a minimum amount required?
Hey you have to bring your own Vaseline at a minimum.
(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61ZwKBgxsQL._SY355_.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 14, 2017, 10:28:41 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFSWN_XT3KI


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on August 02, 2017, 12:30:59 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF83BsYuvI8


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Purge_WTF on August 03, 2017, 06:10:19 AM
 I actually transferred some money from my checking account to my Etrade account for a short-term investment in Facebook, but I changed my mind.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on September 30, 2017, 02:58:01 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t65LyBbWTBk


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 20, 2017, 11:31:23 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0N3HRfEnzWY


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: Purge_WTF on November 21, 2017, 07:16:37 AM
 Concerning short-term investment: you should buy when the stock is low, but not in the red, correct? Alibaba has been mentioned on several sites as a good candidate.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on April 13, 2018, 10:06:05 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql_qpfN_bls


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on April 23, 2018, 01:44:40 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2qIGUoUKrI


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on May 06, 2018, 03:22:09 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DceTmy2WsAAkVMB.jpg)


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on May 18, 2018, 01:53:48 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ms-1cqaMDLk


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 21, 2018, 03:41:36 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJ-ELgMPayg


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on July 27, 2018, 03:28:09 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1fiAotdRJQ


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: IroNat on July 27, 2018, 03:50:15 AM
Concerning short-term investment: you should buy when the stock is low, but not in the red, correct? Alibaba has been mentioned on several sites as a good candidate.

This is good advices for the market as a whole (like a broad market index fund) but for an individual stock there is no guarantee it won't just keep sinking.


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on August 03, 2018, 01:00:49 PM
Concerning short-term investment: you should buy when the stock is low, but not in the red, correct? Alibaba has been mentioned on several sites as a good candidate.

if you want that kind of exposure, I would buy this index: MSCI Emerging markets


Title: Re: Investing and personal finance
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on October 16, 2018, 09:05:31 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4zOb9tgRGM