Author Topic: Investing and personal finance  (Read 119555 times)

Mr Anabolic

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #75 on: October 23, 2016, 11:56:58 AM »
brexit effect on a computer controlled forex trading platform. Brutal:


And if you wait several days/weeks/months, TPTB/algos seem to push it back up.  One day it will crash again, but this time it won't recover.  Traders who play it right (i.e. shorts/put options) will probably not be able to cash in on them.

It's all just digital electrons on a computer screen.  They don't really exist.  Same goes for the cash in 401k's IRA's, pensions, bank accounts, etc.  After the crash only tangible things will hold value, not the digital blips in some trading/bank account.  

We are living in very precipitous times.  Prepare accordingly.

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #76 on: October 23, 2016, 12:25:21 PM »
And if you wait several days/weeks/months, TPTB/algos seem to push it back up.  One day it will crash again, but this time it won't recover.  Traders who play it right (i.e. shorts/put options) will probably not be able to cash in on them.

It's all just digital electrons on a computer screen.  They don't really exist.  Same goes for the cash in 401k's IRA's, pensions, bank accounts, etc.  After the crash only tangible things will hold value, not the digital blips in some trading/bank account.  

We are living in very precipitous times.  Prepare accordingly.

I don't believe in "the crash". Do you seriously believe we can go through a bigger stock market crash than 2008? What would cause it?

All these things would only bring the market down 20 - 30 percent in my view:
- Chinese crash (e.g. from housing bubble or from bad outstanding loans)
- oil crash (another one)
- Donald Trump becomes president
- global recession

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #77 on: November 15, 2016, 08:12:29 AM »

DroppingPlates

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #78 on: November 15, 2016, 09:14:55 AM »





Mr Anabolic

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #79 on: November 15, 2016, 09:19:15 AM »
I don't believe in "the crash". Do you seriously believe we can go through a bigger stock market crash than 2008? What would cause it?

All these things would only bring the market down 20 - 30 percent in my view:
- Chinese crash (e.g. from housing bubble or from bad outstanding loans)
- oil crash (another one)
- Donald Trump becomes president
- global recession

Just a few off the top of my head...

- The US is $20 TRILLION in debt and it's going up (Odumbo added $10 of those trillion over the last 8 years).
- The real unemployment rate is close to 25%, not 5%.
- 90% of the jobs created over the last couple years have been part time service jobs that pay $7.25-$10/hr.
- There are 48-50 million people using EBT cards.
- 60% of people in the US have less than $1000 in their bank account.
- Only 33% have more than $1000 in their 401k.
- The US dollar is losing value rapidly (i.e. inflation).  It buys less and less goods/services every year.
- Food companies are continually shrinking their packaging sizes, but charging the same or more for their products ~aka~ "Shrinkflation"
- The median income in the US is about $52,000... that is less than it was 15 years ago.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop there.

R.A.M.

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #80 on: November 15, 2016, 09:23:20 AM »

JackScribber

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #81 on: November 15, 2016, 09:56:53 AM »
Just a few off the top of my head...

- The US is $20 TRILLION in debt and it's going up (Odumbo added $10 of those trillion over the last 8 years).
- The real unemployment rate is close to 25%, not 5%.
- 90% of the jobs created over the last couple years have been part time service jobs that pay $7.25-$10/hr.
- There are 48-50 million people using EBT cards.
- 60% of people in the US have less than $1000 in their bank account.
- Only 33% have more than $1000 in their 401k.
- The US dollar is losing value rapidly (i.e. inflation).  It buys less and less goods/services every year.
- Food companies are continually shrinking their packaging sizes, but charging the same or more for their products ~aka~ "Shrinkflation"
- The median income in the US is about $52,000... that is less than it was 15 years ago.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop there.

60% of people have LESS than a grand liquid?  :o

Just, how?

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #82 on: November 15, 2016, 11:36:44 AM »






Good stuff. Have you read the book called "Flash Boys"?

DroppingPlates

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #83 on: November 15, 2016, 12:04:14 PM »
Good stuff. Have you read the book called "Flash Boys"?

No, but I believe* I've heard some parts of it during the following documentary (posted before on the Documentary thread)



BTW, over here the guy from that first video -Rishi Narang, who's one of the founders of a HFT firm- explains what's reality and what's fiction about the content of this book, https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-054-rishi-narang/ (I haven't heard it myself yet)

The nanosecond world of HFT is very fascinating, but the given information isn't that useful for a private investor since the whole HFT infrastructure alone is already a multi-million Dollar investment.

* Saw this doc more than a year ago.

FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #84 on: November 15, 2016, 12:41:53 PM »
No, but I believe* I've heard some parts of it during the following documentary (posted before on the Documentary thread)



BTW, over here the guy from that first video -Rishi Narang, who's one of the founders of a HFT firm- explains what's reality and what's fiction about the content of this book, https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-054-rishi-narang/ (I haven't heard it myself yet)

The nanosecond world of HFT is very fascinating, but the given information isn't that useful for a private investor since the whole HFT infrastructure alone is already multi-million Dollar investment.

* Saw this doc more than a year ago.

here is a link to the book:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys

DroppingPlates

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #85 on: November 15, 2016, 12:58:03 PM »
here is a link to the book:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys

Quote
Flash Boys starts out describing the construction of Spread Networks' secretive new 827-mile cable running as straight as possible, through mountains and under rivers, from Chicago to New Jersey that would reduce the journey time for data from 17 to 13 milliseconds. This $300 million project was designed to connect the financial markets of Chicago and New York City where one could think front running might happen with a few millisecond advantage.

Fascinating... and the docu above also covers crazy latency tweaks like these.

Rambone

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #86 on: November 15, 2016, 02:53:42 PM »
My point is that gold is a stable store of wealth.  It's going much higher in the near future.  Those green rectangles in your wallet (or electrons in a bank account) are constantly being devalued and they buy less goods and services every year.  ALL fiat currencies eventually fail.

Like I said above, timing is important.  NOW is the time for gold and silver.  Stocks and RE are a hyper bubble.  It'll be some fun when those bubbles pop.

Gold is great if you can time the "flight to quality" aspect of it. Since nobody can time the market, it's easy to say buy gold AFTER this large move. If you want to go ahead and invest in gold when it's flirting with its 2 year highs, go ahead, but as a buy and hold strategy for the stereotypical inactive investor, you're better off throwing your money in the SPY or some low cost index funds and adding to it over time if you're not watching the monitors everyday like a getbigger in Dubai, India.  

Large move?  You ain't seen nothing yet Mr Rambone.

I hope no getbiggers invested in gold since that post. They'd currently be down 7.3%  :D


Mr Anabolic

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #87 on: November 15, 2016, 04:31:12 PM »
I hope no getbiggers invested in gold since that post. They'd currently be down 7.3%  :D



You are cherry picking the timing.  This is a very long term investment, not short term trading.

I started buying gold when it was $300oz... silver when it was $5oz.  I sold 50% of my silver holdings in 2011 when it hit $50.  Since 2015 I've purchased back several thousand ounces.  Silver is dirt cheap right now... very undervalued.

Precious metals are only real store of value and wealth... a 5000 year track record that cannot be denied.  The sheeple will only come to realize this when the USD and global financial system implodes.  It's inevitable.  The stock market is the biggest bubble in history, but it would not surprise me if it continues to rise over the year, or several years.  I hope it does, it gives me more time to accumulate real wealth.  

When the shit finally does hit the fan water, food, ammo are going to be all the rage... much more than PMs.  

Prepare accordingly.

Rambone

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #88 on: November 15, 2016, 04:40:44 PM »
You are cherry picking the timing.  This is a very long term investment, not short term trading.

I started buying gold when it was $300oz... silver when it was $5oz.  I sold 50% of my silver holdings in 2011 when it hit $50.  Since 2015 I've purchased back several thousand ounces.  Silver is dirt cheap right now... very undervalued.

Precious metals are only real store of value and wealth... a 5000 year track record that cannot be denied.  The sheeple will only come to realize this when the USD and global financial system implodes.  It's inevitable.  

When the shit finally does hit the fan water, food, ammo are going to be all the rage... much more than PMs.  

Prepare accordingly.

Nah we're going to be okay. You're sounding like one of those fear mongering gold commercials on the radio. Gold isn't looking too promising in the future considering Trump hates Yellen and the Fed. With every rate increase, gold will look less attractive. I'm not trying to cherry pick anything. Just giving a simple example of not being able to time the market. If I told you or anybody Trump was going to win the election, you would've bought tons of gold and shorted the equites till your hands bled. Anybody would have.  Nobody can predict this market and you can't predict some catastrophe fabricated in your mind. Fear is always overstated. That's all I'm saying.

Mr Anabolic

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #89 on: November 15, 2016, 04:52:03 PM »
Nah we're going to be okay. You're sounding like one of those fear mongering gold commercials on the radio. Gold isn't looking too promising in the future considering Trump hates Yellen and the Fed. With every rate increase, gold will look less attractive. I'm not trying to cherry pick anything. Just giving a simple example of not being able to time the market. If I told you or anybody Trump was going to win the election, you would've bought tons of gold and shorted the equites till your hands bled. Nobody can predict this market and you can't predict some imaginary catastrophe. That's all I'm saying.

You sound exactly like the way people sounded in 1999 and 2006/7.  I was warning people about the RE bubble in 2006. I lived in San Diego then and 95% of the people I mentioned this to laughed at me, even though I laid out exactly what was going on.

I am not fear mongering.  Like I said previously, these irrational up moves could go for a long time.  However, a stock market crash is long overdue.  This time, the Fed will not be able to stop it.  Sadly, people hardly ever notice when they are in a bubble.

There is nothing to fear if one is prepared... I fear nothing.

dr.chimps

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #90 on: November 15, 2016, 05:12:47 PM »
You sound exactly like the way people sounded in 1999 and 2006/7.  I was warning people about the RE bubble in 2006. I lived in San Diego then and 95% of the people I mentioned this to laughed at me, even though I laid out exactly what was going on.

I am not fear mongering.  Like I said previously, these irrational up moves could go for a long time.  However, a stock market crash is long overdue.  This time, the Fed will not be able to stop it.  Sadly, people hardly ever notice when they are in a bubble.

There is nothing to fear if one is prepared... I fear nothing.
Ok. Warren Buffett. Spread the wealth. Let's have the secret. Please, tell us.   

Mr Anabolic

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #91 on: November 15, 2016, 05:20:39 PM »
Ok. Warren Buffett. Spread the wealth. Let's have the secret. Please, tell us.  

Since 2007/8, Warren has become a shill for the banksters, Wall Street, federal reserve and the corrupt US government... not me.  Don't shoot the messenger monkey boy.

I just told you everything you need to know.  Read the thread.

dr.chimps

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #92 on: November 15, 2016, 05:38:05 PM »
Since 2007/8, Warren has become a shill for the banksters, Wall Street, federal reserve and the corrupt US government... not me.  Don't shoot the messenger monkey boy.

I just told you everything you need to know.  Read the thread.


So, no, secret. What a surprise. Hey, we at GetBig like money - let us know how to make it? Gonna talk tough, or are you gonna tell  us how to do it? Yes/No?

Mr Anabolic

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #93 on: November 15, 2016, 05:56:11 PM »

So, no, secret. What a surprise. Hey, we at GetBig like money - let us know how to make it? Gonna talk tough, or are you gonna tell  us how to do it? Yes/No?

I told you what to do.  Did you fail reading comprehension class?

cephissus

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #94 on: November 15, 2016, 07:10:51 PM »
No, thankfully.  I'm not a 'negative gearing' guy.  Negative gearing is the term given to losing money every month, on purpose, so that you can write off the loss as a tax deduction.  I never really understood how to write off the loss since if you're not making any money then tax liability would already be zero.  I guess they mean it's deduced against assessable income from something that actually earns money, like a job.  Or tallying up all the lost money and deducting against the later capital gain.  Kind of like tying a stone to a balloon so that you can own the stone.

Anywho, this is the logic and how pretty much every rental property works here.  The guarantee being that it's ok to lose money since you're going to cash in big when you finally sell it since real estate only ever goes up.

If I rent a place out it'll be one that I build myself for a $50k construction cost on a block I buy outright for $50k.  I don't subscribe to the debt now/profit later investment model and I don't have the stomach for it.  When I buy something I like it to be from a bleeding, drowning man who needs to be rid of it.  It was a good strategy with my machinery so I'll do the same with property.  

Not exactly a complicated smoke & mirrors approach that conjures money out of thin air like some people claim to be able to do, but I'd rather be effective than sophisticated.  Imo, how money gets generated from an investment should be immediately clear and obvious.  So much so that it's boring.  The last thing investing should be is exciting.  For some reason, people enjoy getting embroiled in wildly complex financial schemes and seem to think that the more complicated something is, the greater the can't-miss profit is going to be.  They love talking about 'how it works.'  If how it works needs explanation then it's probably not somewhere you should put your hard earned.  But wtf do I know.

Didn't know my dad posts on getbig :o

jr

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #95 on: November 15, 2016, 07:34:07 PM »
You are cherry picking the timing.  This is a very long term investment, not short term trading.

I started buying gold when it was $300oz... silver when it was $5oz.  I sold 50% of my silver holdings in 2011 when it hit $50.  Since 2015 I've purchased back several thousand ounces.  Silver is dirt cheap right now... very undervalued.

Precious metals are only real store of value and wealth... a 5000 year track record that cannot be denied.  The sheeple will only come to realize this when the USD and global financial system implodes.  It's inevitable.  The stock market is the biggest bubble in history, but it would not surprise me if it continues to rise over the year, or several years.  I hope it does, it gives me more time to accumulate real wealth.  

When the shit finally does hit the fan water, food, ammo are going to be all the rage... much more than PMs.  

Prepare accordingly.

Venezuela is having a economic/currency crisis and its stock market is outperforming gold massively.




Gold is up 61% in 5 years in venezuelan bolivar.

Stockmarket has gone from 115 to 25600, a 2200% gain.

The bolivar has lost 2.3 times it's value against the USD in that time.

So an inflation adjusted 1000% gain in stocks vs 61% gain in gold.



Mr Anabolic

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #96 on: November 15, 2016, 08:10:19 PM »
Venezuela is having a economic/currency crisis and its stock market is outperforming gold massively.




Gold is up 61% in 5 years in venezuelan bolivar.

Stockmarket has gone from 115 to 25600, a 2200% gain.

The bolivar has lost 2.3 times it's value against the USD in that time.

So an inflation adjusted 1000% gain in stocks vs 61% gain in gold.

Yes, their stock market is up in nominal terms, but their currency (the Bolivar) is worthless -lol.  Same thing happened in Zimbabwe... they were printing $100 Trillion (yes, $100 TRILLION) dollar notes in 2007... I own a few of them. 

Morale of the story:  Only gold and silver hold their value, not paper currency or paper investments.   Fiat currencies ALWAYS fail... they lose value over time and eventually become worthless.

Erik C

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #97 on: November 15, 2016, 08:23:09 PM »
Fiat currencies ALWAYS fail... they lose value over time and eventually become worthless.

When the Federal Reserve took over the US currency, in 1913, the price of gold was $20 per ounce. Today gold closed at $1233.90 per ounce. This is monetary inflation, not to be confused with price inflation, that the Fed uses to obfuscate, what is happening, as they erode the value of the US Dollar.

Gold, and Silver, aren't really investments though. In reality they are insurance, for when everything else turns to shit.


jr

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #98 on: November 15, 2016, 08:52:41 PM »
Yes, their stock market is up in nominal terms, but their currency (the Bolivar) is worthless -lol.  Same thing happened in Zimbabwe... they were printing $100 Trillion (yes, $100 TRILLION) dollar notes in 2007... I own a few of them.  

Morale of the story:  Only gold and silver hold their value, not paper currency or paper investments.   Fiat currencies ALWAYS fail... they lose value over time and eventually become worthless.

Gold went from $20 in 1913 to $1233 today, a 61 times capital gain.
Dow Jones index went from about 86 in 1913 to 18900 today, a 220 times capital gain, if you reinvested dividends, the return is 17,770 times!!!

Rambone

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #99 on: November 16, 2016, 01:49:16 AM »
You sound exactly like the way people sounded in 1999 and 2006/7.  I was warning people about the RE bubble in 2006. I lived in San Diego then and 95% of the people I mentioned this to laughed at me, even though I laid out exactly what was going on.

I am not fear mongering.  Like I said previously, these irrational up moves could go for a long time.  However, a stock market crash is long overdue.  This time, the Fed will not be able to stop it.  Sadly, people hardly ever notice when they are in a bubble.

There is nothing to fear if one is prepared... I fear nothing.

Other than my IRA, I'm actually not long equities in my trading account. I'm also not living beyond my means. have a nice car that's paid off, own a house currently worth 125K more than I paid for it in 2013, and have no credit card debt. Im nothing like someone in their early 30s from 2007.