I actually know Rashad. Believe me, the guy is not at all cocky and I feel bad that he's in this situation. That said, I think he has a very good chance of derailing Bones.
You, Rashad's family members, and about 10 other people on the planet like Rashad.

He mostly brought it on himself by picking a war with fan favorite Rampage. However, even prior to the Rampage feud, he annoyed many with his talking and crotch grabbing in the cage. He was running his mouth even as Machida was seconds away from knocking him out cold.

Rashad's probably a good guy, but he comes across as a douche bag much of the time. He is loudly and soundly BOOED whenever he makes a public appearance, and will be severely booed at every press event leading up to the Jones fight.
Sure, Rashad has a
chance of beating Bones. Number one, he's talented. And two, he knows Bones from training with him every day. That said, I don't see it. I think Bones is a taller, younger and even more athletic version of Rashad.