My estimates, greenpeace's estimates might be high but in this case, I'll error toward the worst case made... WHY?... Well Duh...
Bruce, your numbers are stupidly low... There are deformed ruined people being born every week who won't have a chance at life thanks to that accident... those numbers will keep adding up... That's land that will be unlivable/unsafe for how long??? Oh brother... You're numbers are just not anywhere close to realistic.
The Accident
* The Chernobyl power plant is located on the border area between Ukraine and Belarus.
* The explosion of the reactor at Chernobyl released 100 times more radiation than the atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (1)
* At the time of the accident, about 7 million people lived in contaminated territories, including 3 million children.
* About 5.5 million people - including more than a million children - continue to live in contaminated zones. (2)
* Thyroid Cancer: Thyroid cancer in children has increased dramatically since the disaster, particularly in the Gomel region of Belarus.
The World Health Organization predicts that, in this region alone, 50,000 children will develop the disease during their lifetime. Throughout Belarus, the incidence of this rare disease in 1990 was already 30 times higher than in the years before the accident. (3)
* Leukemia: In the Gomel region of Belarus, incidence of leukemia has already increased 50% in children and adults.
* Other Cancers: Swiss Medical Weekly recently published findings showing a 40% increase in all kinds of cancers in Belarus between 1990 and 2000. (5) Tumor specialists fear that a variety of new cancers will only emerge 20-30 years after the disaster. (6) Cases of breast cancer doubled between 1988 and 1999. (7)
* Birth Defects: Maternal exposure to radiation can cause severe organ and brain damage in an unborn child. Five years after the disaster, the Ukrainian Ministry of Health reported three times the normal rate of deformities and developmental abnormalities in newborn children, as well as an increased number of miscarriages, premature births, and stillbirths. (4)
* Cardiac Abnormalities: Heart disease in Belarus has quadrupled since the accident, caused by the accumulation of radioactive caesium in the cardiac muscle. (10) Doctors report a high incidence of multiple defects of the heart - a condition coined "Chernobyl Heart."
* Genetic Mutations: Hereditary defects in Belarusian newborns increased in the years after the disaster. (
Scientists have observed that congenital and hereditary defects have passed on to the next generation, as young people exposed to radiation grow up and have their own children. (9)
http://www.chernobyl-international.org/facts.html * The economic damages to Belarus after the accident over 30 years (1986 - 2015) will be $235 billion, or over 32 annual national budgets. (11)