Depending on how much you smoke.
You can smoke, drink, and run gear until you are 90 if you moderate it. Believe that. Your lungs can repair the damage caused by three cigarettes daily. You can drink socially every weekend and still live to 100. Again - moderation. Same goes for gear.
Cancer has been around forever. Rates are only going up these days because a mysterious death (in 1900) is now "leukemia". We are better at diagnosing illness. The species will always find ways to eliminate the species. That is just nature. The average life expectancy is said to be over 90 now. We are living longer and longer thanks to advances in modern medicine. I am in no way at all afraid that any of my life choices will result in the early onset of a chronic illness - if I'm going to get cancer, I'm going to get it, whether I live the lifestyle I currently do or whether or not I become a vegan and take up cardio.
Explain how a 21 year old kid who went to my university dies of pancreatic cancer eight days after being diagnosed terminal despite no history of diabetes when insulin abusing pro bodybuilders are now over 40 and still in seemingly ok (not bad) health. Genetics.
Abuse of substances is a different story though - expect rates of cancer or cardiovascular problems and so on to be accelerated to anyone who abuses drugs.
Moderation baby. 
whoa!!!!11 calm down on the assumption tiger. theres no evidence to back what your saying, there is the opposite however.
life expectancy is higher in other parts of the world without you moderation, chronic illness of all types is on the rise(regardless of your diagnosis theory, which has no proof, just assumptions) america has the number one cost for health in the public sector, but ranks 78th in the world in health related variables.
your nuts if you think moderation of bad things doesnt have any effect. your taxing your body regardless, that in itself raises redox, etc etc causing aging etc.. you would live longer if you ate less, and were a health nut, your quality of life would also improve.
i dont buy your moderation theory at all, alot comes down to genetics, and lifestyle. moderation of poisons is not acceptable over the long haul.
