Author Topic: world oil supplies run out faster  (Read 3303 times)

freespirit

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world oil supplies run out faster
« on: June 20, 2007, 12:46:17 PM »
World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists.

"However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives."

http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece

pumpster

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2007, 01:44:06 PM »
Debatable; Iraq's oil reserves were just doubled in a recent report.

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2007, 03:19:19 PM »
There are shitloads of shale oil and tar sands that will become economically viable sources of oil as the easy to get to stuff runs short.  Largest reserves?  Canada.

So no need to spaz just yet.

Not to mention our own huge natural gas reserves.  It's not that tough to make cars run on natural gas.  Or ethanol...  it's not like we have any shortage of corn.

The technology already exists to live without oil.  We just need to make sure the transition is a gradual "soft landing", not an abrupt shortage or "shock".
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Camel Jockey

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2007, 04:42:43 PM »
Fear mongering that only drives the price up..  ::)

Tesla

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2007, 07:01:41 PM »
At some point we'll run out of oil but it won't likely be disastrous.  As Goatboy points out we already have a number of alternatives.  If we are really running out of oil then the price will keep rising and then it will be economical to switch to alternatives.

I've been saying for years that we should liquefy coal.  We've got more coal in the US of A than anywhere else.  At current oil prices the cost would be competitive, too (and would get cheaper with growing economies of scale).  There would be less volatility in fuel pricing.  As a nice bonus the Middle Eastern oil despots would crumble  8)

24KT

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2007, 11:32:58 PM »
There are shitloads of shale oil and tar sands that will become economically viable sources of oil as the easy to get to stuff runs short.  Largest reserves?  Canada.

So no need to spaz just yet.

Not to mention our own huge natural gas reserves.  It's not that tough to make cars run on natural gas.  Or ethanol...  it's not like we have any shortage of corn.

The technology already exists to live without oil.  We just need to make sure the transition is a gradual "soft landing", not an abrupt shortage or "shock".

Think Again Goatboy, ...it's not so easy to get the oil out of the tar sands.
Not only is it a potential environmental disaster, ...but worse, ...it would be an economic one to try.

Currently, it takes about 2.5 barrels of oil, just to extract 1 barrel of oil from the sands. Do the math.
That's not a very profitable scenario. People have been known to go broke following that equation.

The concern is real, ...not just media hype.
w

powerpack

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2007, 08:36:24 AM »
We where actually meant to run out of reachable oil a while back.
But leaps in technology enabled us to drill off shore deeper etc.
Also coal to oil plants like SASOL have got allot better.
Eventually reserves have to give but who knows really when

big L dawg

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2007, 08:50:19 AM »
you don't have to run out of oil for shit to hit the fan.All that needs to happen is to reach the point were it's impossible to produce as much as we use".At that point the average person would not be able to afford or obtain the oil they required.When this happens It won't be  a gradual transition into something else.Life as we know it will change drastically.
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bmacsys

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2007, 02:02:17 PM »
The peak oil thing is doomsday bullshits. The technology to actually find oil deposits is evolving incredibly fast. Also they can drill wells miles deep, go sideways for miles. Extract oil that they couldn't only a few years ago.
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bmacsys

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2007, 02:07:30 PM »
you don't have to run out of oil for shit to hit the fan.All that needs to happen is to reach the point were it's impossible to produce as much as we use".At that point the average person would not be able to afford or obtain the oil they required.When this happens It won't be  a gradual transition into something else.Life as we know it will change drastically.

Watch how fast this country can move if that happens. E85 cars will be mass produced. E85 only stations will pop up overnight. Biodiesel trucks will become the norm. Solar water heaters in all new homes. Wind and solar farms coming online. Nuclear power.
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bmacsys

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2007, 02:09:26 PM »
Think Again Goatboy, ...it's not so easy to get the oil out of the tar sands.
Not only is it a potential environmental disaster, ...but worse, ...it would be an economic one to try.

Currently, it takes about 2.5 barrels of oil, just to extract 1 barrel of oil from the sands. Do the math.
That's not a very profitable scenario. People have been known to go broke following that equation.

The concern is real, ...not just media hype.

Jag, you think those problems are insurmountable? Solutions will be found.
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pumpster

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2007, 06:47:17 PM »
With a competent, progressive administration we'd already be much farther along in making the transitions, in part paid for by keeping the domestic gas price higher and stable. Someone like Bloomberg or Gore is needed to make this happen it's long overdue.

24KT

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2007, 10:52:29 PM »
Jag, you think those problems are insurmountable? Solutions will be found.

no, I don't believe the problems to be insurmountable, ...but at the same time, I don't believe the obstacles to overcome should be made higher before they are even tackled.

Watch how fast this country can move if that happens. E85 cars will be mass produced. E85 only stations will pop up overnight. Biodiesel trucks will become the norm. Solar water heaters in all new homes. Wind and solar farms coming online. Nuclear power.

That's all well and good, ...but how many people are regularly visited by the new car fairy? The country might be able to move fast, but it takes a collective will. Thus far, the focus has not been on taking the action that is needed, but on ignoring the problem or worse, ...outright denying it's existence.

So long as these current issues are ignored, or shoved on the backburner, the period of adjustment is going to be a much more painful period than it has to be for too many people.

As for Biodiesel trucks becoming the norm, well in many areas they are. I know my municipal transit system is run on biodiesel, ...however what is a motorist to do whose vehicle runs on gasoline?

Biodiesel vehicles, don't just pop up overnight, ...they must be purchased, and with the cost of fuel going through the roof, it cuts too deeply into the operating budget to just run out and buy a new one, ...let alone an entirely new fleet. In the past few months, my eyes have really been opened to the huge toll higher fuel prices are having on everyone. Not just the ordinary citizen, ...but on those dependent on fuel simply to operate. Transportation companies are hurting so badly, ...and these are the guys who safeguard and ensure our way of life on the domestic front. As a result of increased transportation costs (which are always passed on to the consumer) prices go up, inflation takes place (currencies are devalued), something you guys might not be too cognizant of, but your dollar has dropped like a lead balloon on world markets. Haven't you noticed the prices you pay for things have increased sharply? That's because investors are dropping your currency as quickly as they can. I cashed a USD cheque last week, and got an exchange rate of 1.03% 3 pennies on the dollar!  :o

A limited oil supply has a greater impact on you than you realize, even if you're a bike rider, and don't drive a car, you are still negatively impacted.

What do you think would happen if independent truckers are forced out of business, ...unable to afford fuel costs?

I'll tell you, ...the vast majority would starve. This is not like the Great Depression of the 30's when people still had the fortitude to grow their own food and bake their own bread. Nowadays, without an independent trucker bringing those things into our supermarkets, we'd starve. Our way of life is too intricately dependent upon a constant supply of affordable fuel, and when the demand surpasses the supply, we're in trouble.

We need to lower our consumption before it reaches that point. The transition period should have begun years ago. it didn't. Infact, everything was done to stall. The end result is when the inevitable occurs, only those who are extremely flush, will be able to seize the opportunities presented to implement a new infrastucture, or to transition to a new one.

The vast majority cannot. The USA for all it's greatness is quickly on it's way to going the route of the dinosaur. Why? Because it is too big to maneuver quickly enough. I'm reminded of a line Danny Devito uttered in "Other People's Money" when describing the advent of the automobile, and horse buggy whip manufacturers. He basically said the last buggy whip factory to go out of business, was probably the best buggy whip factory around. Because they were so successful, they were unable to recognize the winds of change blowing, or to transition to a new paradigmn in order to position themselves in a changing marketplace. Eventually, the market decided their fate.

I saw the same thing when i was an agent. Because I was small, and by necessity had to look for ways to improve my profitability, I seized paradigmns that enabled me to survive an assault on the industry. We saw giants, who had been around since the 1940's & 1950's go under, while little ol' me, not only survived, but thrived. Why? Because we were now playing with a different set of rules, rules which I, out of necessity was not only able to spot, but compelled to take action on. The USA and the vast majority of her citizens have not been so fortunate. You scream about $3/ gallon gasoline, ...but guess what? You are enjoying some of the lowest fuel prices on earth. Up here in canada, we can only wish for $3/ gallon gasoline. We have people in Turkey where fuel prices are as high as $10 gallon, who as a result of being able to understand what's going on in this world, will never ever have to pay out-of-pocket for fuel costs ever again.

ps - counting on technology to improve to such an extent where we will be able to tap the currently untappable reserves, is in my opinion tantamount to screwing Liberace or Rock Hudson without a condom, and saying "Who cares, ...by the time the disease takes hold of my body, scientists will have developed a cure by then, so I'm throwing caution to the wind." Do you really think that's the smartest approach?

I believe what we will see in the future is similar to what we're seeing now in many 3rd. world countries. Only the extremely rich and elite will have cars. Everyone else, donkeys etc. OK maybe in North America it might be horses, or public transit, ...but you get my point.
w

big L dawg

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2007, 04:11:46 AM »
good post
DAWG

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2007, 07:59:49 AM »
Think Again Goatboy, ...it's not so easy to get the oil out of the tar sands.
Not only is it a potential environmental disaster, ...but worse, ...it would be an economic one to try.

Currently, it takes about 2.5 barrels of oil, just to extract 1 barrel of oil from the sands. Do the math.


O RLY? 

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JOHN MATRIX

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2007, 11:50:56 AM »
after 4 years? sounds like that lines up perfectly with the doomsday end of the mayan calendar in 2012. that is if the freemasons wish it to be so.

bmacsys

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2007, 07:15:52 PM »
With a competent, progressive administration we'd already be much farther along in making the transitions, in part paid for by keeping the domestic gas price higher and stable. Someone like Bloomberg or Gore is needed to make this happen it's long overdue.

I remember as a kid in high school around 1977 there was this garnd plan to be energy independent by 2000. I am all for paying a premium for gas if the extra money was plowed into alternate energy sources. I think this country is finally ready to accept some pain to move ahead.
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bmacsys

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2007, 07:24:59 PM »





The USA for all it's greatness is quickly on it's way to going the route of the dinosaur. Why? Because it is too big to maneuver quickly enough.



Where do you come up with this stuff? Don't you think Canada is so intertwined with the states that your country would suffer the same fate? This country has the resources to do what will have to be done. The greatest scientific minds and institutions, the best conditions in the world to let these minds work, billions of dollars in capital, an immense amount of natural resources. Everything is there. We just need leaders to really put the wheels in motion.
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big L dawg

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2007, 07:30:57 PM »
Having blind optimism is just as bad if not worse than the dooms day theorys
DAWG

benchthis

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2007, 08:22:32 PM »
ha ha ha what do those damn brits know there still bitter about losing there oil hold in the early to mid 1900's

24KT

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2007, 10:26:10 PM »
Where do you come up with this stuff? Don't you think Canada is so intertwined with the states that your country would suffer the same fate?

Yes, our economies are incredibly intertwined, ...however having gotten rid of our deficit, plus a few other factors puts us in a position to manuever with more agility.

Quote
This country has the resources to do what will have to be done. The greatest scientific minds and institutions, the best conditions in the world to let these minds work, billions of dollars in capital, an immense amount of natural resources. Everything is there. We just need leaders to really put the wheels in motion.

Your country has the resources to ensure there is no child poverty of a lack of universal healthcare too. Doesn't mean that's ever going to happen.
w

Tombo

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2007, 04:22:58 AM »
oh so.... oil isnt going to run out in fifty years?

DAMNIT


.. as if i give a fuck.

big L dawg

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2007, 04:13:33 PM »
once again it doesn't have to run out for YOU not to be able to get any.
DAWG

24KT

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2007, 11:00:40 PM »
once again it doesn't have to run out for YOU not to be able to get any.

big L dawg, they just don't get it.  ::)

Maybe if they thought of it going the route of health insurance in America, ...they'd understand it more.
w

pumpster

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Re: world oil supplies run out faster
« Reply #24 on: June 27, 2007, 06:41:05 AM »
What a waste of time. All the stupid people buying SUVs for no good reason could've been disuaded with high gas prices decades ago. Thereby forcing knuckleheads intent on buying huge SUVs to avoid them in the first place. Now we're stuck with endless numbers of these things on the road, mainly bought as part of a fad.

Common sense forced on masses who never figured out that Americans can live without big cars that made no sense after the mid-1970s.