There's that pesky Pakistan issue again.
This quote is interesting, I wonder how much validity there is to it.
But war critics in Congress say the report proves the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq undermined the fight against Al Qaeda by diverting the military's resources for the 2003 invasion and giving bin Laden an opportunity to regroup. The war, they say, inspired legions of followers to join Al Qaeda and defend Muslim land against American occupation.
http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2007/07/18/al_qaeda_seen_reborn_as_key_threat/Al Qaeda seen reborn as key threat
Report fuels more debate on Iraq war course
By Bryan Bender, Globe Staff | July 18, 2007
WASHINGTON -- The Al Qaeda terror network, responsible for the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, has reestablished a safe haven in Pakistan, retained its top leadership, and trained new operatives in Iraq -- and now poses a "heightened threat" of another massive attack on the United States, according to the summary of a joint American intelligence assessment.
Despite large-scale US efforts to capture and kill fugitive leader Osama bin Laden after driving his organization from Afghanistan six years ago, the report concludes, Al Qaeda remains an elusive, resilient organization that has rebuilt itself. It has joined forces with other like-minded groups and has used the US invasion of Iraq to recruit and train disaffected Muslims.
"The group has protected or regenerated elements of its homeland attack capability," including establishing new training camps in Pakistan as well as replacing its operational lieutenants, according to the National Intelligence Estimate's "key judgments" section.
The White House, which declassified a small part of the report yesterday, said the conclusions underscored the need for a sustained military campaign in Iraq, where some of the most violent insurgents swear allegiance to bin Laden.
"Clearly what we know is the Al Qaeda that attacked us on September the 11th was an Al Qaeda that was led by Osama bin Laden and causes the killing of 3,000 Americans," Fran Townsend , special assistant to President Bush for homeland security, said yesterday. The organization, she added, "is the same Al Qaeda" of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who orchestrated suicide bombings in Iraq until an American airstrike killed him in 2006.
But war critics in Congress say the report proves the Bush administration's decision to invade Iraq undermined the fight against Al Qaeda by diverting the military's resources for the 2003 invasion and giving bin Laden an opportunity to regroup. The war, they say, inspired legions of followers to join Al Qaeda and defend Muslim land against American occupation.
"We should have concentrated our efforts on Al Qaeda in Afghanistan from the beginning," Representative Ike Skelton , Democrat of Missouri and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement. "Now, four years later, we find ourselves facing a resurgent Al Qaeda while our forces are tied down in Iraq."
The otherwise secret report was declassified on the same day Senate Democrats headed into an all-night debate on the future of the Iraq war. The National Intelligence Estimate predicted that Al Qaeda in Iraq -- described as Al Qaeda's "most visible and capable affiliate" and a nemesis of US troops -- will "probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities" its battle-hardened adherents gained in Iraq to launch future attacks against the nation.
Initiated last October and completed in June, the National Intelligence Estimate analysis is the first solely on the terror threat to the United States, and its conclusions echoed recent CIA warnings about the resurgence of Al Qaeda. The intelligence analysis, titled "The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland," focused on potential threats over the next three years.
Prepared by the nation's 16 intelligence agencies, National Intelligence Estimate reports are intended to give the White House and Congress key judgments to help shape foreign and defense policy. They are rarely released to the public.
Though the report summary outlined concerns about the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon along with other Muslim extremist groups, most analysts seized on the report's reference to the rejuvenating effect the Iraq war has had on Al Qaeda. Besides tying up a substantial amount of American military force, according to the report, the war has given Al Qaeda operatives invaluable battlefield experience and helped it draw support from across the Muslim world.
Some national-security specialists were surprised by the frank assessments.
For the last few years intelligence officials have suggested much of Al Qaeda's central leadership has been neutralized, and that the primary national security threat came from splinter groups bin Laden inspired but doesn't command. Yesterday's assessment summary concludes that the same organization that meticulously planned and executed the September 11th attacks is alive and well.
"This clearly says Al Qaeda is not beaten," said Michael Scheuer , who formerly headed up the CIA's bin Laden search team.
Senator Joseph Biden , chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and a Democratic presidential candidate, called the report a "devastating indictment of the administration's failure to accomplish its most important mission: destroying Al Qaeda and the threat it poses."
Skelton said he plans to hold hearings on the issue, saying that "we must ensure that our nation maintains its focus" on the real war against terror.
The White House, however, insisted that the Iraq war is not a distraction, saying that national security officials are constantly working to thwart new plots and round up terrorist operatives all over the world.
"This isn't a question of diverting" US resources, Townsend said. When pressed on whether the Iraq war gave Al Qaeda breathing space to regroup, Townsend responded that the organization is "weaker than they would have been" if the United States had not moved against it.
Yet those actions seem to have done little permanent damage to the central organization founded and directed by bin Laden -- who was once thought to be gravely injured but who intelligence officials now believe is hiding, still communicating with his network from Pakistan.
"Al Qaeda is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots" while pushing other Sunni extremists to mimic its efforts," the National Intelligence Estimate concludes. Al Qaeda, it continued, is likely to focus on launching attacks inside the United States that would cause mass casualties and significant economic harm.
The group "would not hesitate" to use chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons against American targets, according to the report.
"Al Qaeda works like a virus," said Evan Kholmann , a terrorism adviser to the US Justice Department and Britain's Scotland Yard. "It looks for weak victims such as Sunni populations under siege and [they] present themselves as the only alternative to annihilation. These days it is Iraq. They use it as a training ground. They are trying to create a military organization."
Scheuer, the former CIA officer, called the report a "very good, professional document." But, he said, none of it mentions the grievances that drive Al Qaeda to fight against the United States in the first place, an understanding he believes is critical to defeat Islamic extremists.
Besides Al Qaeda, the report warned of other potential security threats that the United States could face in the near future. Hezbollah, according to the report, "may be more likely to consider attacking the homeland over the next three years if it perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group or [its main backer] Iran."
It also pointed to "the growing number of radical, self-generating [terrorist] cells in Western countries," including the United States. The recent arrest and prosecution of a small number of home-grown Muslim extremists in the United States "points to the possibility that others may be sufficiently radicalized that they will view the use of violence here as legitimate," the findings state.
