I'm sure Occam's Razor has its logical applications, but I'm sure even you know full well the implications of implying it to everything. We're talking about major world events, the simplest explanation is often opposite of the truth in worldy affairs... Peanut M&Ms on me!!!!
I don't apply it to everything. I said "very often." On the other hand, I wouldn't say major world events "often" are not what they appear to be. I'd go with "sometimes." And it isn't just limited to major world events. People lead double lives. People lie. I see it much too often.
A lady told me today about her jury service in a criminal drug case. She said she saw the defendant sitting outside the courthouse wearing expensive dark glasses, a leather jacket, two pagers, a cell, expensive looking watch, etc. She felt bad because she judged the guy partly on how he looked. That's when I told her I would have reached the same conclusion: dealer.
Who wears a leather jacket on Maui?? I know looks can be deceiving, but I doubt the guy was a boy scout.
Believing things are often what they appear to be doesn't mean you assume the appearance is good.