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Author Topic: Jim Cramer meltdown  (Read 3385 times)
b.c.
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« on: August 03, 2007, 10:39:45 PM »

buy, buy, buy....    Grin

http://video.msn.com/v/us/Money.htm?g=9c5e07e8-897c-4f76-bc8a-2acb33647120&f=15/64home&p=hotvideo_money%20top%20ten&fg
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trab
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2007, 02:21:29 PM »

Cramer is clearly Underwater deep. So are a lot of other market players.
I consider him dangerous to follow.

The Fed cant and will not lower rates. The US Dollar is too devalued, it could cause a run on the Dollar, and a disaster.  I think, simply a lot of ppl too far in debt will lose homes. Rental Property could get hot.

There's a lot of good Free market trading info below for anyone w/ a passing interest.
There's going to be more pain, and opportunities for short players, a dangerous game.

http://www.pristine.com/About/Services/FreeServices.aspx
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2007, 06:41:50 PM »

I know there will be a recession once the fed raises rates and/or the war in Iraq ends. 

Will it be a dollar crash?  i don't know.  I hope not.  Despite the fact the world hates us, and we do some shady shit, the US is in the #1 position, and I think we'll stay there.  We lack a competitive advantage in tech, mnfg, and many other areas now.  But we're still living large.  It won't last- I remember hearing someone on the politics board gloating that "14,000 DOW is here to stay, and its only going up".  monster overvaluation.
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Eyeball Chambers
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2007, 06:59:34 PM »

monster overvaluation.

YOU HATE AMERICA LIB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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b.c.
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2007, 10:01:24 PM »

Good points trab, 240....  It is a real mess out there.  We have been in a war rally since March of 2003.  The markets haven't had a 10% pullback since god knows how long.  Dollar trading at 26 year lows and crude oil rallying out of control.  We aren't even in hurricane season yet.  Way too much free money in the markets and now liquidity is being drained.  Short sellers may get a chance to finally eat some cake!  Let see what the Fed does Tuesday with interest rates. 
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trab
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2007, 08:10:13 AM »

Good points trab, 240....  It is a real mess out there.  We have been in a war rally since March of 2003.  The markets haven't had a 10% pullback since god knows how long.  Dollar trading at 26 year lows and crude oil rallying out of control.  We aren't even in hurricane season yet.  Way too much free money in the markets and now liquidity is being drained.  Short sellers may get a chance to finally eat some cake!  Let see what the Fed does Tuesday with interest rates. 

Cramer can scream all he wants. Market Players dont rule the Fed. I dont see how the FED can lower rates. The Dollar sits on Feeble support at all time low.

Chartists (Technical Analists, the Opposite of Cramer) consider that real dangerous ground for anything from cotton to coffee to what not.

When anything falls thru support, and there is no old support levels to use as a guide, it's anyones guess what happens. If you watch a Major sell-off in action on the Live charts, you continual see a epic battel of Bull vs Bear at each previous support level. They can sometime fall thru several w/ no buyers.

The Dollar is on unknown ground. BUT  IT WOULD BE SUICIDE FOR CHINA, THE SAUDIES  etc to dump them all at once.
Many have been unloading the Dollar, that's why it's Low. Other assets are more attractive place to park money.

I wish I was an experienced short player, there gona be some money made IMO.
Its a very dangerous game. But, Fear is stronger than Greed! Stocks tend to fall  3X faster than go up. And they been going up FAST a long time. The pros can shift gears in midstream. My Buddy will buy up, and short the same stock down in the same day Wink!  Quit his job as an attorney, makes more trading, sipping coffee. Unusual guy.
Check out pristines site there. Some cool stuff.
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2007, 04:30:07 AM »


I wish I was an experienced short player, there gona be some money made IMO.

I agree. Boatloads of it!

Quote
Its a very dangerous game. But, Fear is stronger than Greed!

{giggle} Dude, quit reading my mind.

Quote
Stocks tend to fall  3X faster than go up. And they been going up FAST a long time. The pros can shift gears in midstream. My Buddy will buy up, and short the same stock down in the same day Wink!  Quit his job as an attorney, makes more trading, sipping coffee. Unusual guy.
Check out pristines site there. Some cool stuff.

I don't have the ovaries for it, ...but when the crash occurs,
...and make no mistake, it will occur HARD ...some people are gonna make out like bandits.
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w
trab
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2007, 05:51:32 AM »

I agree. Boatloads of it!

{giggle} Dude, quit reading my mind.

I don't have the ovaries for it, ...but when the crash occurs,
...and make no mistake, it will occur HARD ...some people are gonna make out like bandits.


Have you ever watched it on the live trading screne (Brutal Sell-Off)?

The Program selling once stops at about the 2nd support level are violated is mind blowing. You cant click a mouse fast enough to get out.

The next question is, when things start to look cheap - ARE THEY?
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b.c.
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2007, 10:03:52 AM »


Have you ever watched it on the live trading screne (Brutal Sell-Off)?

The Program selling once stops at about the 2nd support level are violated is mind blowing. You cant click a mouse fast enough to get out.

The next question is, when things start to look cheap - ARE THEY?

That is what hot keys are for!!  Cant cover those shorts fast enough  Smiley   
200 day moving average will be the where the bull/bear fight will be staged.  If we stay below, short all rallies vice versa if we trade above.  Fed meeting tommorrow will be huge for the markets going forward. 
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trab
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2007, 04:31:50 PM »

That is what hot keys are for!!  Cant cover those shorts fast enough  Smiley   
200 day moving average will be the where the bull/bear fight will be staged.  If we stay below, short all rallies vice versa if we trade above.  Fed meeting tommorrow will be huge for the markets going forward. 


Your a Pro. I got a nasty dose of fear this year when Ford Gapped down pre Hrs!
Not that funny at all.  Little gun-shy after that one. Wrong side of the trade is no place to be!
THis market is for pros only.
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2007, 05:44:34 PM »

Jim Cramer is a tool and any retail investor who listens to him will lose their money. Please please don't go and buy stocks following the recommendations of others.

The market is in a dangerous place for now but for day traders like myself the increased volatility is a wonderful thing. I mainly trade ES futures and right now some of the swings are crazy, but if your a position player such as myself then you can reap the rewards.

As for only playing the short side, well I'm sorry but that is for amateur traders as opportunity presents itself usually after big sell-offs.

14000 on the Dow was typical wallstreet bullshit where the institutions could re balance their inventories and sell into strength, especially to the foolish retail traders. Many signs could have shown this was not the real deal and if you was wise you would have taken out some Puts right at the highs like me  Grin

Number one, volume on the new highs was lower, a clear signal that not all timeframe players believe in the strength of the market. Also, for TA analysts: we had just completed a 5 wave advance and were in line for at least a 15% correction. There were so many factors to list that the highs were just a oasis for the retail crowd to follow and the major players to fade.

Anyway, please stop trying to measure the macro picture of what the catalyst might be for a major correction as this will never help you time a move in the market and is only for serious long term players who are able to stomach large drawdowns.

Also, don't just start buying on these head fake rallies that we will have this next couple of weeks thinking that we head back to new highs. I predict we be going lower before we go higher the next couple of weeks.

If you are smart and willing to take a risk then wait wait wait till we start to test a bottom in Dow and Spy - usually bear market bottom is tested multiple times and then if it holds traders have some confidence to start buying. As a retail investor your best chance is to make some great buys and strength stocks (stocks which can survive during hard time without getting hit too much) when we breakout of this trading range.

As for dollar this and dollar that, or recession this and that - none of you know or will ever be able to time this correctly so just wait for multiple tests of a bottom and then buy on a clear breakout of the whole bracketing range.

Maybe i may even start a thread for you retail investors on when might be a good time to buy.

As for the recent rallies, just look at the ascending to descending stocks on the NYSE and you will see that more stocks are hitting 52 week lows than highs. These rallies are generally known as short squeezes e.g. getting rid of all the weak shorts with tight stop before heading lower.

As for my prediction, well let me just remind you that know one can ever forcast the market 100% the best we can do is rely on probabilities and trade accordingly.

All the best.


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trab
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2007, 06:54:29 AM »

Jim Cramer is a tool and any retail investor who listens to him will lose their money. Please please don't go and buy stocks following the recommendations of others.

The market is in a dangerous place for now but for day traders like myself the increased volatility is a wonderful thing. I mainly trade ES futures and right now some of the swings are crazy, but if your a position player such as myself then you can reap the rewards.

As for only playing the short side, well I'm sorry but that is for amateur traders as opportunity presents itself usually after big sell-offs.

14000 on the Dow was typical wallstreet bullshit where the institutions could re balance their inventories and sell into strength, especially to the foolish retail traders. Many signs could have shown this was not the real deal and if you was wise you would have taken out some Puts right at the highs like me  Grin

Number one, volume on the new highs was lower, a clear signal that not all timeframe players believe in the strength of the market. Also, for TA analysts: we had just completed a 5 wave advance and were in line for at least a 15% correction. There were so many factors to list that the highs were just a oasis for the retail crowd to follow and the major players to fade.

Anyway, please stop trying to measure the macro picture of what the catalyst might be for a major correction as this will never help you time a move in the market and is only for serious long term players who are able to stomach large drawdowns.

Also, don't just start buying on these head fake rallies that we will have this next couple of weeks thinking that we head back to new highs. I predict we be going lower before we go higher the next couple of weeks.

If you are smart and willing to take a risk then wait wait wait till we start to test a bottom in Dow and Spy - usually bear market bottom is tested multiple times and then if it holds traders have some confidence to start buying. As a retail investor your best chance is to make some great buys and strength stocks (stocks which can survive during hard time without getting hit too much) when we breakout of this trading range.

As for dollar this and dollar that, or recession this and that - none of you know or will ever be able to time this correctly so just wait for multiple tests of a bottom and then buy on a clear breakout of the whole bracketing range.

Maybe i may even start a thread for you retail investors on when might be a good time to buy.

As for the recent rallies, just look at the ascending to descending stocks on the NYSE and you will see that more stocks are hitting 52 week lows than highs. These rallies are generally known as short squeezes e.g. getting rid of all the weak shorts with tight stop before heading lower.

As for my prediction, well let me just remind you that know one can ever forcast the market 100% the best we can do is rely on probabilities and trade accordingly.

All the best.




Good stuff Bud, throw out some more time to time.
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2007, 02:09:49 PM »


Good stuff Bud, throw out some more time to time.
[/quote]

Thanks for the reply mate.

No problem, i am willing to share day to day analysis of the markets, not saying i know all but it would be nice to have some discussion now and again.

Maybe we should start a daily market analysis thread  Grin
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b.c.
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2007, 04:23:21 PM »

Good stuff Bud, throw out some more time to time.


Thanks for the reply mate.

No problem, i am willing to share day to day analysis of the markets, not saying i know all but it would be nice to have some discussion now and again.

Maybe we should start a daily market analysis thread  Grin



Maybe a daily heart attack trend  Grin  We have some serious intraday range expansion right now.  Just phenomenal to say the least.  BSC trading like a tech stock lately....  This is fun Smiley
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2007, 05:49:21 PM »


Maybe a daily heart attack trend Grin  We have some serious intraday range expansion right now.  Just phenomenal to say the least.  BSC trading like a tech stock lately....  This is fun Smiley

That what I'm talking about B.C, some crazy action today and this past couple of weeks. Volatility is through the roof and so is my blood pressure lol

I made out handsomely today catching the massive down swing in the ES late in the evening and then riding it back up for a round trip of over 30 ES points per contract. Today was some manipulated action by some of the big institutions, there was also a rumour about GS (Goldman Sachs) going to announce something about one of their funds.

This type of action really is going to hit nearly stops of both bears and the bulls and it is inevitable if you are a daytrader. My advice on times like these is wait for Support and Resistance zones to be hit on each move up or down before thinking of entering a trade. On my own analysis i like to have clusters of Fib levels as well as S/R levels, i use these together to help me identify important confluence zones which have amazing probabilities of holding.

Due to trading range it seems we are bouncing of key S/R value very well, however, make sure you enter either on a reversal bar or a retest of previous holding price level. The funds are manipulating some of the action to hit the stops of the weak players so make sure you pick entries carefully.

I'm still expecting another big drop next couple of weeks and it seems like these recent rallies and retracements are reaching their peaks. However, being a daytrader i trade what i see and the very long term macro picture is of little use to me.

Maybe tomorrow i will post a chart of ES price action just to show people that most TA indicators are useless and you can trade far better using just price. In my own trading i use the following indicators: RSI, MA's and Bollinger bands. I rarely use them to initiate a postion as they lagg and are only used for overall picture which can then conform with my current view on the days action.

Apart from that i use: Market profile, S/R levels, FIB levels, Elliot wave analysis (only if it is clear), Candlesticks, Volume. All my analysis is done top-down approach: hence i start with weekly then daily, 240 min, 55min, 15 min and then 5min timeframes to get the current trend the market is in. I use the 15 min and 5 min for pinpoint entries.

Also, let me note that trading is all about an edge, if you have no edge you cannot survive day trading. You might do better INVESTING i.e. picking stocks for the very long term. However, trading is usually daily or weekly positions and without an edge in your trading you will always lose in the long run.

When traders talk about an edge, often individuals get confused and think they are talking about some mathematical algorithm or some supercomputer to help determine where the market is going. This is incorrect, an edge is the same as a casino has e.g. over N number turns they have the statistical odds in their favour of beating you. You might beat the house at black jack 1 day, 1 week, 1 year but after about 10,000 hands dealt you will always revert back to the mean and they will always beat you. This is the same in the markets so you need an edge to be a winner in the long run.

Getting the edge is not as hard as it seems: a simple example of an edge is having very small stops and then letting your winners ride out longer than your stops. This is one way i increase the odds in my favour: when i initiate a position in ES futures i have 3 units: each units is comprised of a number of contacts and is determined by the particular setup presented by the markets. These setups are predefined and have been back-tested to give me the best odds of each one being successful. I will then allocate number of contracts to each 3 of my units according to my model. My stops on the ES are rarely over 2 ES points - some people think that is crazy, especially with the volatility today. However, i can prove time and time again you can always get within these stops as long as you position correctly and wait for price to hit your zone.

Now i have tight 2 points stops so that defines my risk e.g. 2 points for all 3 units. My targets are based on my chart analysis and where i think we can head - my first target for unit 1 lies within 4-8 ES points, the other 2 targets then allowed to run onto important reversal zones. I then have a trailing stop once 1st unit target has been hit.

Now this is a simple edge: my risk to reward is about 1:3. My system backtested indicates that i have 63% winning entries. Now as long as unit 3 hits for a home-run every now and again it mean my equity curve goes through the roof. It also means i rarely have a losing week and minimal drawdowns.

Also, my risk is very very small on each trade which allows you never to blow-up and lose everything. Simple system, simple edge, and it will always perform.

I don't know if this is of help to anyone but if so then let me know and i will post some price action charts of ES -eminis futures tomorrow and maybe make some live calls.  Grin
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trab
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2007, 06:46:23 PM »

I like this, nobody has ever put out real shit here before. Most (all) pros have a different style.
I'm just an observer at this point. SOme of your stuff you lose me on, but I folllow a lot.
Thanks for your perspective guys.
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b.c.
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2007, 09:10:39 PM »

SB, good stuff and great rules!!.....  I shorted the ES and spiders too once it came down to 1500.  Instanteously I was 3 ticks in the money!  The vix,ticks, and trin all went short on a dime turn.  I wanted to short Goldman so bad, but I couldnt because I had no place to stop out.   Went with BSC because all their sub prime exposure....  This action is just so damn nice for a change.  I would love to see the vix above 18 for the next 4 years or so  Smiley  I think we rally to the 50 day ma on the spiders/es  and then sell off again.  Will be watching the vix to gauge the fear/greed.  Good trading bro.... 
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b.c.
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2007, 09:19:10 PM »

I like this, nobody has ever put out real shit here before. Most (all) pros have a different style.
I'm just an observer at this point. SOme of your stuff you lose me on, but I folllow a lot.
Thanks for your perspective guys.

trab, you can open a futures account with Tradestation. Great platform and great historical data.  It is also very stable when the market is running wild.   You will love making money when the market is tanking, I swear the adrenalin rush is unreal.  I may need valium if this market stays like this!
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trab
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2007, 10:05:50 PM »

trab, you can open a futures account with Tradestation. Great platform and great historical data.  It is also very stable when the market is running wild.   You will love making money when the market is tanking, I swear the adrenalin rush is unreal.  I may need valium if this market stays like this!

I KNOW THE RUSH VERY REAL. iT MAKES 120MPH WHEELSTANDS SEEM TAME Grin.
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2007, 01:28:19 PM »

Holy shit guys, now if you read my previous posts i told you not to be fooled by those head fake rallies and short squeezes.

We tanked hard today and it was lovely lol I rode my shorts from last night all the way down for a new personal best day of 40 ES points per contract. This was the hardest trading day of my life, that big rally at the start of the day was a typical short squeeze to get rid of the weak shorts before we headed lower. As you can see we failed to even cross midpoint of the gap created overnight indicating extreme weakness.

It was hard holding to reach my target and i did question myself many many times, but we got there in the end.

The big players had already positioned themselves short overnight so that was some indication something wrong going on here. Also, as you could see something fishy going on with GS. Also, many bad news announcements todays and sentiment shifted bearish very quick.

Tomorrow we go down some more, maybe rally a bit overnight before crashing down some more lol
I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for my opportunity to pounce.

Hope B.C and Trab had a good day today with lots of $$$$$$$.

I bet a lot of dumb ass fund managers got pulled of the floor today hahaha when will they learn! Them and their quants and models thinking they can always predict the unpredictable!
Price action tells all and should always be used first ahead of any other indicators. The market is not rational it is the collection of a bunch of irrational herd like players, this is why many eggheads can't ever beat the market. They think they can predict the future without taking into account real time conditions.

Now lets await the news and see if any new funds tanked hehehe

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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2007, 02:22:52 PM »

 SB, today was unreal....  ES down 25+ points on the open,  cant short that on the open.  Gdub was speaking also .  Shorted the spy @ 147.35 yesterdays low and rode it down to 145.80.  Almost caught the high tick on BSC today.   Man I love this!!!  This is heaven....  I would like to see a huge short squeeze so I can put a position short on the ES for a potential longer term  correction.  btw, spider low was 145.29, the 200 day moving average.  More volatility to come.   The Vix is the real deal indictor. Good trading again bud!!  Grin

Supreme,  where are your fib retracement levels for the ES? thks
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trab
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2007, 04:25:32 PM »

Congrats guys,somebody gots to harvest all that overpriced equities.

How far You think it can go?

I tell you, Benny B and his golf pals are clueless about the housing, building trades, and all relateds. They are DESTROYED.
I'm lucky I did very well during the boom, both in Biz and a prime piece of land sold right at the peak of the bubble Grin. The developer who bought it is in deep now.
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2007, 05:16:40 PM »

Things are looking bleak right now and it will be very hard for the FED to come in a cut rates to discount equities, this will obviously cause the dollar to basically crash. FED is in deep shit in my book and is stuck in a very bad position.

However, futures continue to sell off after hours even as i write this, as long as we don't get complete panic and a crash i think i nice long opportunity will be available very soon.

For the ES I'm hoping price hit 1443-1445 for a nice buying opportunity to ride this to 1460. Apart from this, many are expecting a bounce tomorrow, i personally don't see a bounce until at least 1447 or 1443-1445 is tested overnight and maybe in the morning session. If these levels break then price will be heading very close to recent lows.

I will post my chart for ES with all my S/R and FIB lines tomorrow - these zones have been holding extremely well, nearly to the exact tick recently.

Fear and greed often bring the best opportunities. For now i will be sitting on sidelines just observing how price reacts to my levels and then may get in a small long position. In the long run, this could be the 15-20% correction i have been waiting for, i will try to sell any rallies and hoping price to continue lower for next couple of months.

From looking at the charts right now i see that we will be in this bracketing zone for at least a couple of months. I have an ultimate target in mind for a major long position but that is long way off for now.

Again i will post some charts from time to time if you guys wanna check them out. A lot of people really think that looking at the charts will not tell us where price is heading, this is so far from the truth as everything is always priced into the markets. The markets are pricing in a slow decline in the U.S economy in near future as we speak, even though GDP right now does not really indicate a major slow down. Futures are purely an expectation of the future and everything is always priced in the market, often well in advance.

Its no coincidence that i sold all my positions in all the UK equities i own when the DOW was at 14000. My trader friend told me i was crazy and that i would miss out some big moves - this again could have been true for a while but my model was predicting a decline in the next couple of weeks and the risk for me to keep those equities was growing. I locked in my profits for the bull market gains and cut my risk exposure, i often react to quickly and miss out on some over reaction at the end of a bull market (this time i got the timing on my side).

Trading will always be a demanding profession and we all make mistakes, I'm making nice money now but when i started it was a different story. This game is the true blood, sweat and tears - you have to really pay your dues before you can make it trading. This is just a warning to let anyone reading this that i did not start of making money trading futures - when i started i was terrible and lost many months before earning anything decent.
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trab
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2007, 05:26:00 PM »

Your 1st sentence says what most Americans are oblivious to.

Technical Analysis is all there is IMO.

My Prof Trader friend will trade stuff he has NO IDEA WHAT THEY EVEN DO, HE DOES VERY WELL.

He says same as you - its all priced into the charts. Thats real time.

Good luck, were all gonna need a Big pile of US$s when they switch them to Ameros! Grin
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b.c.
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2007, 09:26:49 PM »



Trading will always be a demanding profession and we all make mistakes, I'm making nice money now but when i started it was a different story. This game is the true blood, sweat and tears - you have to really pay your dues before you can make it trading. This is just a warning to let anyone reading this that i did not start of making money trading futures - when i started i was terrible and lost many months before earning anything decent.
[/quote]

No truer words indeed....  I almost went insane more than a few times. This is a profession were paying the dues is inevitable.  The ES (futures) is where all the sharks(pros) lurk looking for guppies.
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